Points tracker - AO 2013

New	Old	Name	Old	Dropped	Gained	New	Move
1	1	Djokovic	12,920	2,000	2,000	12,920
2	2	Federer	10,265	720	720	10,265
3	3	Murray	8,000	720	1,200	8,480
4	5	Ferrer	6,505	360	720	6,865	Up1
5	4	Nadal	6,600	1,200		5,400	Dn1
6	6	Berdych	4,680	360	360	4,680
7	7	Del Potro	4,480	360	90	4,210
8	8	Tsonga	3,375	180	360	3,555
9	9	Tipsarevic	3,090	90	180	3,180
10	10	Gasquet	2,720	180	180	2,720
11	11	Almagro	2,515	180	360	2,695
12	12	Monaco	2,430	10	10	2,430
13	14	Cilic	2,210		90	2,300	Up1
14	16	Simon	2,145	45	180	2,280	Up2
15	15	Raonic	2,175	90	180	2,265
16	13	Isner	2,215	90		2,125	Dn3

Interestingly enough, the top spot is theoretically in play. Federer can in theory reclaim it, but for that to happen, Federer would have to win and Djokovic would have to lose before SF. Not entirely impossible I suppose, but a long long shot.

While Federer can in theory move up, he is safe in knowledge that he cannot be overtaken here.

Murray also looks pretty secure at #3 spot. Only Ferrer can overtake him and that can only happen if either (a) Ferrer wins and Andy loses before the final, or (b) Ferrer loses in the final and Andy fails to reach the third round.

While spots 1-3 look pretty safe, there will definitely be a change at #4 spot. Nadal, the current holder of #4 ranking is not playing, and, as a result, Ferrer will overtake him no matter what. This will be the first time since Nadal's rise to prominence that he will drop out of top 4. The last time he was outside top 4 was in the rankings of May 23, 2005. In theory, Nadal could be as low as #7 after the AO. However, for that to happen, Del Potro would have to meet and beat Berdych in the final.

Speaking of Delpo and Berdych, they have a nice little fight for what will likely be #6 ranking. Further down, Tsonga and Tipsy are in a relatively close fight for #8 spot and Gasquet should try to do well here if he wants to prove he can challenge the likes of Delpo, Berdych and Tsonga in the rankings. At the bottom of the table, Raonic drops outside top 15 in the provisional pre-tournament rankings.

Note:
Green - player moving up the rankings
Red - player moving down the rankings
Boldface - player still in the tournament

I originally posted this same article on a different forum, but IMBL suggested I post it here too, so here goes.

This is essentially same as cogen's "points spy" article from the old 606. The whole thing is done these days more professionally on this site:

http://live-tennis.eu/

Therefore, I was not sure if it made much sense to do something similar - and much more amateurish - here but perhaps it gives us a placeholder to discuss any rankings implications of the AO.

Thanks SB

Thanks for posting summerblues, I love this kind of article.

Good post SB.

Just going ever so slightly off-topic here. Now by the time the French Open comes around Rafael Nadal will hopefully be well back in the swing of things but there is little doubt his ranking will be around four or five. In that case how does he get seeded at Roland Garros. He is the greatest clay-courter of all-time so will he get bumped up to No.1 seed or will he adopt his ranking at be seeded four or five?

CaledonianCraig wrote:Good post SB.

Just going ever so slightly off-topic here. Now by the time the French Open comes around Rafael Nadal will hopefully be well back in the swing of things but there is little doubt his ranking will be around four or five. In that case how does he get seeded at Roland Garros. He is the greatest clay-courter of all-time so will he get bumped up to No.1 seed or will he adopt his ranking at be seeded four or five?

He'll be seeded low- around number 5.
They won't bump him up, no chance.

Just asking as we have seen the ranking ignored in the past at slams when working out seeds.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Just asking as we have seen the ranking ignored in the past at slams when working out seeds.

I would like that

But it doesn't happen these days.

It Must Be Love wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Just asking as we have seen the ranking ignored in the past at slams when working out seeds.

I would like that

But it doesn't happen these days.

If his ranking is still lower when Wimbledon comes around I would expect him to be bumped up bit, probably to 4th seed. They appear to be the only Slam that does not always directly take ATP rankings for seedings. Obviously I hope he is back to his best by then anyway.

Thanks SB

Just noticed...Isner's not in the tournament?

Sadly he has a knee injury.

Wimbledon bump their rankings, due to how short the grass season is, but none of the other slams do. In any case, Rafa's R2 exit last year at Wimbledon will count against his ranking being bumped up much (though he'll still have his 11 final points), so not sure he'll get seeded ahead of Ferrer there anyway (Ferrer had a QF last year).

The interesting one will be RG: you can well imagine how scared the top 3 will be at the prospect of Rafa being in their quarter

Amazing to think that Murray could add the Austalian open to the US open and the Olympics in the space of 6 months, and still be behind 2 players in the rankings.

Admittedly the Olympics is not huge points, but it just shows how consistently good Novak and Roger have been over the last year.

If Murray wins AO, he's the real number one in my eyes irrelevant of ranking.

do you get points for the Olympics?

Ah gotcha, thanks carrieg4.

You do, MfC. It's scaled between a Masters tournaments and an ATP500 - 750 points for the gold medalist, 450 for silver, and so on.

There will certainly be a lot of "Murray locker room number 1" talk bandied about if Murray wins AO but it will be a grey area until he wins Wimbledon or reaches a clay final. He has never done either.

As far as I see it

Australia day time session = UK night = US evening.
Australia night time session = UK morning = US night.

So US-based Socal, Summer Blues and others should find it easier to tune into the day session while us UK folk should find it easier to tune into the night matches, unless we have to go to work, which of course a lot of us do!

In reality I have a busy life and will probably in reality catch 3-4 matches including the final and at least 1 semi.

UK is probably a better location than the US overall, because the semis and final are night matches.

It Must Be Love wrote:If Murray wins AO, he's the real number one in my eyes irrelevant of ranking.

If Nole fails to win, he will have a good chance of being a "slamless No 1" (not quite Safina type of slamless, but you know what I mean).

Big turnaround, given that about this time a year ago people were tipping him to hold all four slams come French Open.

Thanks for the efforts SB, very much appreciated.

summerblues wrote:If Nole fails to win, he will have a good chance of being a "slamless No 1" (not quite Safina type of slamless, but you know what I mean).

Big turnaround, given that about this time a year ago people were tipping him to hold all four slams come French Open.

IF is still a big word in sport - Djokovic is still #1 seed and ranking and, provided he isn't carrying an injury after being assaulted by stadium furniture the other day, is to my mind the favourite for this title. Obviously Fed and Andy have a decent chance and there's an opening for one of the players outside the recent top 4 to have a stand-out tournament, but if I had to put a tenner on anyone it would be Novak.

Interesting though - that we see Nole is the clear No.1 but could easily be a slamless one at the end of this fortnight

I actually think he is more vulnerable to Roger and Andy at a Slam, simply because a dropped set from then isn't near fatal

Henman Bill wrote:There will certainly be a lot of "Murray locker room number 1" talk bandied about if Murray wins AO but it will be a grey area until he wins Wimbledon or reaches a clay final. He has never done either.

Would he be the first Brit to recapture the locker room #1 position?

I think Simon Reed is the authority on this ranking system.

If Murray wins AO he will go up to locker room #2.
Nadal is currently locker room number one via protected ranking

are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

No the locker room aren't really into Roger anymore Im afraid.

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

Don't forget, the locker room ranking exists only in the mind of the person espousing it. It's function is to offer succour to those unable to cope with reality.

It Must Be Love wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

No the locker room aren't really into Roger anymore Im afraid.

True, but at least he still shows up there.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

No the locker room aren't really into Roger anymore Im afraid.

True, but at least he still shows up there.

... and I am glad that he does.

PS: If Federer (52 slams @USO 2012) plays all slams in 2013, he will surpass Edberg's (54 slams) record at W 2013 and equal Wayne Ferreira (56 slams) at US 2013.

PPS: Feli Lopez at 43, Robredo at 41, Ferrer at 40 and Verdasco at 38 slams respectively are the current players chasing Federer.

http://www.tennis28.com/slams/cons_appearances.html

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

No the locker room aren't really into Roger anymore Im afraid.

True, but at least he still shows up there.

No my sources in the locker room have confirmed that Federer no longer uses the communal one, he had his own one studded with diamond.

bogbrush wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:are you sure? wouldn't feds have to lose early for him to be displaced?

Don't forget, the locker room ranking exists only in the mind of the person espousing it. It's function is to offer succour to those unable to cope with reality.

Both Mr. Reed and I are deeply shocked by this petulant remark.
We intend to sue.

It Must Be Love wrote:We intend to sue.

Both Ms. Barker and I are deeply shocked by this remark.
We intend to Simon.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:We intend to sue.

Both Ms. Barker and I are deeply shocked by this remark.
We intend to Simon.

I can't wait until Mr. Reed gives betting advice.

'Simon says put £100 on Donald Young.'
'But sir, he's up against Novak Djokovic in the first round.'
'Have you read the rules of this game?'

We have lost Delpo and Cilic from our table last night (which means that, even theoretically, Nadal cannot drop below #6 after the AO), but most top players are still in it. Thirteen of the top 16 are making their projected appearance in the fourth round.

Let's see if the second week brings more upsets.

Thanks for updating, summerblues. Interestingly after the matches today, with Ferrer and Berdych matching their results from last year, JMDP is the only one outside the top three that stands to lose points outright. Not counting Nadal and Isner, of course.

Not a bad tournament for the top 16 as a collective group!

With the win against Berdych, Nole has now guaranteed himself #1 spot after the AO.

Ferrer can still in theory overtake Andy, but that will only happen if Ferrer wins (somewhat unlikely? ) and Andy fails to reach the final.

Little happened in the way of really big shocks and all top four seeds made the SF. As a result, we are not seeing any big shake-up in the rankings. They are likely going to stay at the end of the tournament where they are provisionally now.

The only way they could still change is if Ferrer beats Federer in the final, in which case Andy drops to fourth, and Ferrer moves up to third.

And with Ferrer's capitulation to Djoko this morning, only the top 3 remain.

However, with Ferrer having reached his seeded position, he has pulled well ahead of Nadal, who is sliding down to potentially be in the clutches of Berdy and Del Boy before the next slam.

Obviously, Rafa only has half a season's worth of points, but when it comes to the clay, he doesn't have much (if any) scope to add points, so it looks like he's very little chance of being in the top 4 seeds come RG (unless they buck their usual trend and move him up from his ranking). Heck, if he takes some time to regain form and fitness (after all he's been out of action for a long time now), it's borderline possible he could fall outside the top 8 if he has to skip a couple of the clay MS events.

Assuming that he's come to fitness and match sharpness by RG, he'll be an absolute nightmare draw form whichever of the top 4 get him in the QF (anyone want to give odds that he draws Ferrer?)

Well the number one ranking is secure for this slam for Djokovic, he does have quite a few points to defend at IW and miami although he plays very well in those tournaments so I can't see him losing the #1 ranking at least in the near future barring a stunning early loss at one of those masters and if he fails to beat Ferrer than it does get quite close at the top.