Australian Open 2013 - The Contenders

So, with the first slam of the year upon us, it will be interesting to see which of the top players can set the tone of the upcoming season. Or perhaps a new face will emerge as champion at the end of the two weeks and climb to the top in 2013. Let's look at the contenders.

Novak Djokovic - World No.1 - 3 time champion

The world's top player returns to his most successful slam hunting ground after a light warm-up at the Hopman Cup. He looked in decent shape as he got through the opening round in a straightforward three sets. Djokovic is looking to become the first man in the Open era to win the Australian Open three years in a row and a win would put him equal with Andre Agassi and Roger Federer on most titles won at Melbourne Park. He's certainly on the easier side of the draw too, seeded to face David Ferrer in the semis while Murray and Federer are expected to do battle in the other half. So expect to see the Serb in the final yet again. However, I don't think he's a dead cert to win. His two slam matches with Andy Murray last year went to five sets, and both men were pushed to their limits. However, Murray's win over Djokovic in New York, which also got the slam-monkey off his back, may just give him the mental edge in a potential final this year. Djokovic is the slight favourite, but it's far from clear-cut.

Andy Murray - World No.3 - 2 time runner-up

While he's been at the top of the game for a good few years, 2012 was really the year that Andy Murray entered the tennis elite. Now a slam champion, (as well an Olympic gold medalist) it would be fair to say that Murray is, despite being behind in the rankings, a safer bet than Federer to win the title here. Until his win in New York, many would have said that this was Murray's best slam and although he lost, his epic semi-final against Djokovic was one of his best ever performances. Now that he's made that slam breakthrough, I feel he is more likely to come out on top in such tight encounters. Having started the year off with a title in Brisbane, Murray is already in the competitive swing of things and should be looking for a quick start to his campaign. His draw doesn't look too bad, although Simon and Del Potro have the potential to cause problems before a likely semi-final clash with Roger Federer. This one could go either way but I would favour Murray on this surface and I have a sneaking suspicion that this could be another special fortnight for the Scot.

Roger Federer - World No.2 - 4 time champion

There isn't any lyrical left to wax about Roger Federer but despite an excellent 2012, he goes into the new season with question marks over him yet again. It seems almost lazy to point out that he's now in his 30s, that he mightn't have long left in the game, that Djokovic and perhaps Murray have surpassed him. But that's how a lot of people feel. Federer certainly has the ability to prove the doubters wrong yet again but with no warm-up coming in, he's going to have to start quickly. He has a potentially nightmarish draw of Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic and Tsonga before the semi-finals but that might just be the sort of test that he needs to get his game into top gear ahead of the second weekend. It will have to be a big two weeks from him to take this title for a fifth time and stand alone in the Open era for most title in Australia. A win would also make him the only man to have win 5 or more titles at three slam events. But I would have to put Murray and Djokovic ahead of him in the list of contenders given their proficiency on this surface. He does tend to raise his game against Murray in the slams but a big hitter such as Tsonga or even Raonic could knock him off before then. With Federer, I just don't know where we stand, which isn't something often said. I expect him to battle his way to the semis but then the magic really will have to come out.

Other Contenders

David Ferrer is the fourth seed and has been to the semis here before. That is more a testament to his consistent tenacity though as he just doesn't have the firepower to really challenge the top contenders. If there is to be a winner from outside the top three, it's going to be a big hitter on a hot streak. Del Potro ended the year in good form and seems to be finally getting back to his best. Although he hasn't got many wins over the top three since his return, he certainly has grand slam pedigree ans is probably fourth favourite. Tsonga has been to the final here in the past and has the power to knock off the top players. I doubt his ability to do it three times in a row, which is likely required to win here. Federer has lost to him in a slam before but I feel that the semis are the best that Jo can hope for. Berdych is another of the huge hitters with an outside chance. He has won against all of the top three before in slams, having beaten Federer and Djokovic back to back at Wimbledon in 2010. If he can pull off a quarter final win against Djokovic, he would likely face Ferrer in the semis. Although the Spaniard is a fierce competitor, he isn't on the level of those above him so I would say that Berdych has the best chance of the outside contenders of making a run to the final.

Good article FMKK. Sums it up nicely!

great article FMKK, and as carrie says, sums it up very well for me too.

On an interesting slight aside, according to Sky, the Aussies have Tomic as fifth favourite to take the title after (in the following order) Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Ferrer!!!!

Good article. Only bit I'd disagree with is:

FMKK wrote:Murray's win over Djokovic in New York, which also got the slam-monkey off his back, may just give him the mental edge in a potential final this year.

New York was a big boost to Andy but I don't think it will affect Novak. Novak won the two meetings subsequent to New York so I can't see any sign of Andy getting a mental edge over him.

Novak was asked yesterday if he has noticed a change in Andy's demeanour since his USO win. His response was "he has a shorter hair cut"!

This match-up is so even, it will just come down who is better on the day. Boring analysis, I know, but I think that's really how it stands now!

HM Murdoch wrote:Good article. Only bit I'd disagree with is:

FMKK wrote:Murray's win over Djokovic in New York, which also got the slam-monkey off his back, may just give him the mental edge in a potential final this year.

New York was a big boost to Andy but I don't think it will affect Novak. Novak won the two meetings subsequent to New York so I can't see any sign of Andy getting a mental edge over him.

Novak was asked yesterday if he has noticed a change in Andy's demeanour since his USO win. His response was "he has a shorter hair cut"!

This match-up is so even, it will just come down who is better on the day. Boring analysis, I know, but I think that's really how it stands now!

True HM. My take is that it could blunt the mental edge that Novak has previously had over Murray. At least this time, should they both make the final, Murray will know he is capable of beating him in such a big match. This should even it a bit.

carrieg4 wrote:True HM. My take is that it could blunt the mental edge that Novak has previously had over Murray. At least this time, should they both make the final, Murray will know he is capable of beating him in such a big match. This should even it a bit.

I agree. What I like about how this match-up now stands (and this is what always undermined Fed v Nadal a little for me) is that neither player seems to have a hex over the over.

Prior to 2012, I'd say Novak had the mental edge. Had Novak won in New York, I think that edge would have remained. Similarly, if Andy had followed up the Olympics and USO by beating Novak in Shanghai or WTF, I think we would have to say Andy had the edge.

As it stands though, neither player has a significant edge. It's all down to who can summon the better performance on the day and, as much as that makes me very nervous(!), it is exciting to have in the game.

HM Murdoch wrote:

carrieg4 wrote:True HM. My take is that it could blunt the mental edge that Novak has previously had over Murray. At least this time, should they both make the final, Murray will know he is capable of beating him in such a big match. This should even it a bit.

I agree. What I like about how this match-up now stands (and this is what always undermined Fed v Nadal a little for me) is that neither player seems to have a hex over the over.

Prior to 2012, I'd say Novak had the mental edge. Had Novak won in New York, I think that edge would have remained. Similarly, if Andy had followed up the Olympics and USO by beating Novak in Shanghai or WTF, I think we would have to say Andy had the edge.

As it stands though, neither player has a significant edge. It's all down to who can summon the better performance on the day and, as much as that makes me very nervous(!), it is exciting to have in the game.

Definitely

Andy said today that the court is playing much differently from last week; bouncing higher (!). And he played first up!!

Just give it to Djokovic now and move on.

Fantastic Article Fluffy.
Welcome to v2

It Must Be Love wrote:Fantastic Article Fluffy.
Welcome to v2

Wonderful to see another familiar poster.

time please wrote:great article FMKK, and as carrie says, sums it up very well for me too.

On an interesting slight aside, according to Sky, the Aussies have Tomic as fifth favourite to take the title after (in the following order) Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Ferrer!!!!

May be the Aussies are competing with BBC, it won't be an easy Ball game Ozzies but you guys are right on the button.

Tomic the greatest to have happened for Tennis outside the Tennis balls.

Can Robson overcome Kvitova and her beer belly?

bogbrush wrote:Andy said today that the court is playing much differently from last week; bouncing higher (!). And he played first up!!

Just give it to Djokovic now and move on.

Whilst I wouldn't quite go that far, a higher bounce would minimise the effectiveness of Roger's/Andy's delicious slice so he probably is quite pleased.

That said, it's playing 10% faster than previous years (according to Fed) so that would please Federer most and Novak least.