Aviva Premiership - Round 20 - The Home Stretch

First topic message reminder :

League Table

	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Against	Bonus Pts	Points
1	Saracens	19	15	1	3	440	280	5	67
2	Leicester	19	13	1	5	445	282	9	63
3	Harlequins	19	12	0	7	473	399	8	56
4	Northampton	19	12	0	7	404	390	6	54
5	Gloucester	19	11	1	7	439	386	8	54
6	Bath	19	9	1	9	402	362	10	48
7	London Wasps	19	9	0	10	451	435	11	47
8	Exeter	19	9	1	9	438	377	8	46
9	Worcester	19	5	1	13	357	425	11	33
10	London Irish	19	6	1	12	386	514	4	30
11	Sale	19	5	1	13	317	520	4	26
12	London Welsh	19	4	0	15	337	519	7	18

Fixtures

Fri 12th Apr 13
19:45 Sale Sharks v Gloucester Rugby ESPN


Sat 13th Apr 13
14:15 Harlequins v Bath Rugby ESPN
15:00 Exeter Chiefs v London Irish


Sun 14th Apr 13
15:00 London Welsh v Northampton Saints
15:00 Saracens v Worcester Warriors
15:45 Leicester Tigers v London Wasps Sky



Preview

6 AP sides entered European 1/4 finals, but just 1 progressed to semis. Wasps anf tigers may be able to find some solace in their own performances in matches they were not favourites for the win. Bath, Gloucester and Quins will have been disappointed not just with defeats, but also with the manner of the defeats. All 5 teams are still in the mix for play-off or HC spots so will need to bounce back quickly.


The round opens on ESPN with struggling Sale hosting a misfiring Gloucester team. Both teams need the win and in the end it could come down to who wants it more. Gloucester have the attacking ability to really punish any Sale defensive frailties - yet Fridays in Salford are not easy. I have no idea how to call this. Logic suggests Gloucester fighting for a play-off spot should be too strong, yet their performances since the 6Ns finished has seen more bad than good. I am prevaricating, every time I decide who will win I think ah but.....

On Saturday two of the losing teams from last week meet at the Stoop, live on ESPN. Since winning the LV cup, Quins have lost 3 matches in a row. On Saturday they completely failed to support each other, in attack or defence. They shoul dhave had a right rollicking this week as that display showed a real lack of pride and respect for each other, not something I expected to say about Quins. Quins have to get back to attacking and defending in groups, constantly changing the focus of attacks and looking to move the ball quickly. Bath need this win if they are to believe they can push for a European spot and will arrive in Twickenham with a much bigger pack. In the end it may come down to which teams 10 plays better - but will the DoRs go for old or young options? Whilst I have been saying this for the last couple of weeks, Quins should have too much skill and cohesion.

Exeter host a London Irish team that have little to play for. Half of the LI team are leaving and the club look safe from relegation. Rob Baxter's elevation to England management for the summer tour have led to rumours he may be looking to move on permanently. Whilst he may be ambitious he is also devoted to the Chiefs cause. Exeter can steal a march on Bath and Wasps, who both have tricky away fixtures, in the fight for HEC spot.

London Welsh have to win to maintain any hope of avoiding relegation (unless courts help). Northampton are not a team who will give much to a "weaker" side. LW have to start well as if Saints open up a lead they could pulverise them. It is unlikely to be pretty, but Saints really should be able to bash and bosh their way to 4 tries and the 5pts they need in the fight for play-offs.

Saracens face Worcester at Aliianz Park. We can expect to see rather a lot of squad rotation from Sarries - even so they should record the win that would guarantee a home semi with some ease.

Tigers will be hurting following Sundays defeat at Toulon. Marcos Ayerza's fractured clavicle sees him join Louis Deacon and Miles Benjamin on the "out for the season" list. For me Ayerza is the best LH in the premiership and his absence is a major loss for us - but should not be critical to matters this week. Tigers will look to use the power of the pack to deny Wasps atatcking opportunities, while using their strong running game to score the tries that will move them closer to a home semi. Wasps have shown regularly that they can score tries - only Tigers have scored more in the AP - yet they concede points by the bucketload too.

HongKongCherry wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Yea those horrible London teams that have supplied finalists and Prem winners every season for over a decade, MASSIVELY over represented

2007 Gloucester 16 Leicester 44
2006 Sale 45 Leicester 20

A decade obviously means something different to Quins fans

You didn't have to mention the score LT!

Sorry HKC. You will notice I did at least publish the thumping Sale gave to us the year before.

LondonTiger wrote:Well, Quins halt the losing streak, and in the end it was comfortable. Not a performance that will please players or staff, but a win is a win.

Agree with this, a win is a win is a win but Quins were so poor. There was no real difference in playing style or skill levels today to last weekend, we're just lucky that Bath were poor and only looked to muck around on the floor and be as negative as possible.

Still a lot of work to be done by the Quins team if they want to pose any sort of trouble in the play offs. At least Care was far better this weekend and the Botica/Nev combo looked good. Hopper should never play 12. Johnston gets more and more lazy each week.

Wayne Barnes was truly awful, killed any kind of contest at the scrums, destroyed any momentum in open play and completely gave up trying to ref Bath in the rucks and off side line.

Sorry for the rant but just got back from the game and pretty disappointed in all honesty.

Great to see Jack Nowell and Henry Slade on the field for Exe towards the end of the game

Saw Slade tweet about getting on at the end, must have been a great moment for him. Congrats Exeter

Tigers decide to rest Tom Youngs, Parling and Croft this weekend so have made some late changes. The starting team looks like:

Mulipola, Hawkins, Cole
Slater, Kitchener
Mafi, Crane, Salvi
Youngs, Flood
Allen, Manu
Morris, Tait, Thompstone

Bench: Balmain, Chuter, Castro, B Deacon, Waldrom, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Tiiigers!

London Welsh have been relegated.

Rugby Fan wrote:London Welsh have been relegated.

and they've lost their financial backing at the end of the season. Not a good couple of weeks for Welsh.

Odd to watch Tigers live training run today. Still waiting on the actual match...

yappysnap wrote:Odd to watch Tigers live training run today. Still waiting on the actual match...

When we won so easily - am I allowed to feel a touch disappointed with the performance?

LondonTiger wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Odd to watch Tigers live training run today. Still waiting on the actual match...

When we won so easily - am I allowed to feel a touch disappointed with the performance?

Mood. Hoover.

Honestly I know it wasn't AB standard but compared to Quins who you'll probably play in the knock outs you were light years ahead!


For the first 50 you had total control and it was only iffy passing from Youngs which curtailed your attacks. After that you obviously took your foot off the gas but the game was well won by then.

Quins looked like a bunch of amateurs compared to you boys and I'm fricking worried about how we're going to stop all your big runners, especially if you actually bother to use Tuilagi as well!

Yappy after this weekend, who would you prefer to face out of sarries or tigers?

yappysnap wrote:Honestly I know it wasn't AB standard but compared to Quins who you'll probably play in the knock outs you were light years ahead!


For the first 50 you had total control and it was only iffy passing from Youngs which curtailed your attacks. After that you obviously took your foot off the gas but the game was well won by then.

Quins looked like a bunch of amateurs compared to you boys and I'm fricking worried about how we're going to stop all your big runners, especially if you actually bother to use Tuilagi as well!

Like I said on the Tigers thread, Wasps were lucky that Cockers rested key players and substituted half the team by 60 minutes, otherwise it could have been embarassing.

Knackeredknees wrote:Yappy after this weekend, who would you prefer to face out of sarries or tigers?

This weekend should not be used as a barometer for Sarries or Tigers - both Warriors and Wasps were poor.

Quins have something of a hex on Leicester, but at the moment, I doubt think Tigers would worry too much about them especially at Welford Rd.

Jimpy wrote:

Knackeredknees wrote:Yappy after this weekend, who would you prefer to face out of sarries or tigers?

This weekend should not be used as a barometer for Sarries or Tigers - both Warriors and Wasps were poor.

Quins have something of a hex on Leicester, but at the moment, I doubt think Tigers would worry too much about them especially at Welford Rd.

Wasn't basing on this weekend alone, the last few games both teams have been raising the bar each game, while quins have struggled.

Then again Northampton have been quietly sneaking up on everyone and are in good form

Quins hopes at Welford Rd would hinge on who is reffing. Wayne Barnes does not interpret the laws in a way that helps Leicester (usually quite the opposite) where as his lottery calls at the scrum and ruck are perfect for Quins where they can get a big shove on early up front and turn to their many sevens in the loose.

Knackeredknees wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

Knackeredknees wrote:Yappy after this weekend, who would you prefer to face out of sarries or tigers?

This weekend should not be used as a barometer for Sarries or Tigers - both Warriors and Wasps were poor.

Quins have something of a hex on Leicester, but at the moment, I doubt think Tigers would worry too much about them especially at Welford Rd.

Wasn't basing on this weekend alone, the last few games both teams have been raising the bar each game, while quins have struggled.

Then again Northampton have been quietly sneaking up on everyone and are in good form

Northampton will probably be the 4th place team, but would be tonked by either Sarries or Tigers away from home (and by Tigers at The Gardens )

Wayne Barnes does seem to ref the Leicester vs Quins games quite frequently so I think you'll be stuck with him again Sam if Quins do face Leicester.

Knackeredknees I don't think Saints were in particularly good form when beaten quite convincingly by Leicester in their own backyard but we can agree to disagree!

I think whoever plays Saracens or Tigers at Allianz Park/ Welford Road will struggle. We can discuss whether one is marginally tougher than the other but both are daunting prospects.

Tigers only hope for silverware this season (and possibly for Cockers to keep his job) is to win the league title. They'll be going all out for it this year - and as can be seen, are peaking nicely.

Whoever they get in the play-offs ought to be worried, because you just get the feeling as a Leicester supporter that its their turn this year.

Jimpy you think Cockerill will be sacked if Tigers don't win the AP? That's really harsh!

Personally as it stands I obviously think it will be a Sarries-Tigers final. Those matches are always a tough tussle.

Injuries could have an impact though.

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you think Cockerill will be sacked if Tigers don't win the AP? That's really harsh!

Personally as it stands I obviously think it will be a Sarries-Tigers final. Those matches are always a tough tussle.

Injuries could have an impact though.

There are rumblings at Welford Rd, believe me.

Sarries are also fighting on two fronts, and I expect them to reach the HC final - that could have a fatigue penalty on them as well.

Jimpy wrote:

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you think Cockerill will be sacked if Tigers don't win the AP? That's really harsh!

Personally as it stands I obviously think it will be a Sarries-Tigers final. Those matches are always a tough tussle.

Injuries could have an impact though.

There are rumblings at Welford Rd, believe me.

Sarries are also fighting on two fronts, and I expect them to reach the HC final - that could have a fatigue penalty on them as well.

i have't heard any rumblings at all.

yappysnap wrote:Honestly I know it wasn't AB standard but compared to Quins who you'll probably play in the knock outs you were light years ahead!


For the first 50 you had total control and it was only iffy passing from Youngs which curtailed your attacks. After that you obviously took your foot off the gas but the game was well won by then.

Live, Youngs passing looked mighty fine - but was hindered by Flood at times standing nearly 30 yards away yet flat so forcing Ben to have to really fire them out. I really thought he was back to his best - though Flood is still not quite clicking.

There have been rumblings for quite some time, rather loud during that losing spell last season.

Quins/Saints match in round 22 will in all probability be a play-off for 3rd/4th.

Cockers has a contract, Matt O'Connor's is up for renewal. The rumblings I've heard are all within that context. Cockers position as DOR is secure because of the HEC efforts and the home semi at the moment, if we make the final I'd say he's safe. MOC could well be replaced as I've heard rumours he's not popular with the players.

There's not many DOR's that would suit Tigers on the market. Johnno? Tempt Rowntree away from England? I can't see those happening. Mauger or Gibson might return as head coach replacing MOC though. Geordie is also a reasonable shout but he seems to want to work with the academy initially. The work he's done with Tait points towards positive returns from the academy backs in seasons to come.

All I want us to do is make the playoffs officially and then try to find a little bit of form. At least Danny had a good game against Bath

formerly known as Sam wrote:Cockers has a contract, Matt O'Connor's is up for renewal. The rumblings I've heard are all within that context. Cockers position as DOR is secure because of the HEC efforts and the home semi at the moment, if we make the final I'd say he's safe. MOC could well be replaced as I've heard rumours he's not popular with the players.

There's not many DOR's that would suit Tigers on the market. Johnno? Tempt Rowntree away from England? I can't see those happening. Mauger or Gibson might return as head coach replacing MOC though. Geordie is also a reasonable shout but he seems to want to work with the academy initially. The work he's done with Tait points towards positive returns from the academy backs in seasons to come.

Would be pretty happy if MOC moved on, i can honestly see Geordie taking the role in a couple of years.

As you say, DOR have to fit into the Leicester way.