Points Spy - Cincinnati Masters

Following straight on from Montreal we head to Cincinnati for another Masters tournament!

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	11400	600	180	10980		Eliminated - QF
2	3	R. Nadal [ESP]	7860	0	1000	8860	Up 1	Champion
3	2	A. Murray [GBR]	8610	90	180	8700	Down 1	Eliminated - QF
4	4	D. Ferrer [ESP]	7130	10	90	7210		Eliminated - R16
5	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	4865	90	360	5135	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
6	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4740	360	360	4740	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
7	5	R. Federer [SUI]	5515	1000	180	4695	Down 2	Eliminated - QF
8	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3470	0	0	3470		Did Not Play
9	11	R. Gasquet [FRA]	2625	10	10	2625	Up 2	Eliminated - R32
10	9	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	2925	360	45	2610	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
11	10	M. Raonic [CAN]	2645	180	90	2555	Down 1	Eliminated - R16
12	12	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2485	90	10	2405		Eliminated - R64
13	13	T. Haas [GER]	2140	45	90	2185		Eliminated - R16
14	22	J. Isner [USA]	1585	0	600	2185	Up 8	Eliminated - Final
15	14	J. Janowicz [POL]	2119	16	10	2113	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
16	15	N. Almagro [ESP]	2100	0	10	2110	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
17	17	G. Simon [FRA]	2030	0	10	2040		Eliminated - R64
18	16	F. Fognini [ITA]	2050	35	10	2025	Down 2	Eliminated - R64
19	18	M. Cilic [CRO]	1985	180	0	1805	Down 1	Did Not Play
20	19	K. Anderson [RSA]	1740	10	10	1740	Down 1	Eliminated - R64
		Selected Others:
21	20	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	1650	10	45	1685	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
35	44	D. Tursunov [RUS]	946	0	205	1151	Up 9	Eliminated - QF

Summary:

• Nadal won the title and rises to #2.
  
• Defending champion Federer lost to Nadal in the QF and will now slide down to #7.
  

So, is this week a moment of truth for Federer, of sorts? Can he overcome his back niggle and get back to winning ways, or is it just going to be a continuous slide down the rankings from here?!

Great to see you and Points Spy back Cogen Hopefully DelPo can have a good week and move up a spot. Surprisingly, 5th will be Berdych's highest ever ranking if/when he gets there.

A win for Nadal, coupled with another (unlikely) early exit for Murray sees Nadal holding the #2 ranking heading into USO, no?

Yup, kingraf. Murray needs to win 2 matches to ensure he keeps second place going into the USO, even if Rafa wins the title.

If Murray fends him off until then, it looks extremely likely that Rafa will come out of the USO as no.2. Even if Murray defends his USO title, Rafa will probably require something like quarters, maybe even fourth round, to take no.2

That rather depends on the results in Cinci. If Murray wins Cinci (granted he has been chumptastic in most masters over the last couple of years) then Rafa couldn't take number 2 if Murray won in NY.

If Murray loses early here or Nadal beats him in the SF then its pretty much guaranteed Rafa will be number 2 post US.

No.2 or No.3 but does it matter if it isn't No.1? I don't think so.

Well, if we assume the top 3 are going to remain ahead of the pack then being in the top 2 is surely an advantage as you will have a 50% shot at an easier semi final.

Yes of course there is that. Silly me never thought of that. We shall see what goes on at Cincinatti but I feel at the mo Murray is like King Feruk trying to keep the waves off the beach but will ultimately fail in this instance.

Born Slippy wrote:If Murray loses early here or Nadal beats him in the SF then its pretty much guaranteed Rafa will be number 2 post US.

Yeah, this is what I was basing my assumptions on. I can't see Andy winning Cinci this week. Hope he proves me wrong though!

I make him favourite to be honest. Slightly quicker courts suit him more than Rafa and Novak. Got a decent amount of match play in the doubles last week without over exerting himself and has won in Cinci before. Knowing Murray he will probably lose to Youhzny though!

CaledonianCraig wrote:No.2 or No.3 but does it matter if it isn't No.1? I don't think so.

If Nadal wins in Cincinnati and the US and Djokovic makes the semi's in both than Nadal will be the new number 1. Tricky but still in the realms of possibility. Amazing enough to be at number 3 despite the other players having eight months extra to collect points. But if Nadal were to regain the number one position having played for less than half the year it would rank as one of the most incredible achievements in tennis history. What could Rafa do for an encore next year? Play with his right hand or maybe give his opponents a couple of games head start?

hawkeye wrote:What could Rafa do for an encore next year? Play with his right hand...

Is that what he did at Wimbledon?....  

hawkeye wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:No.2 or No.3 but does it matter if it isn't No.1? I don't think so.

If Nadal wins in Cincinnati and the US and Djokovic makes the semi's in both than Nadal will be the new number 1. Tricky but still in the realms of possibility. Amazing enough to be at number 3 despite the other players having eight months extra to collect points. But if Nadal were to regain the number one position having played for less than half the year it would rank as one of the most incredible achievements in tennis history. What could Rafa do for an encore next year? Play with his right hand or maybe give his opponents a couple of games head start?

8 months extra? Rafa started playing in February and if he wins in NY it will be the end of September plus no one plays in December. I make that three months. Still would be remarkable but he's not played that much less than the other guys.

^ Rafa has been number 1 in the race for ages despite missing the AO and not starting until February. I was talking about the rankings...

In the race for London, Rafa has played more tournaments than Djoko or Murray. Djoko has only played 11 tournaments this year, Rafa 13. Tommy Haas has played 21!

In the last 12 months, Rafa has played 19 tournaments, Djoko & Murray have both played 18, although Rafa has missed out on 2 slams, and Murray 1 slam.

I don't see what that has to do with my post. Where are these extra 8 months you refer to?

Yeah, if Nadal becomes no.1 after the USO, he'll have done it without having the opportunity to play 4 of the 'big' tournaments since his comeback:

• Shanghai (October)
  
• Paris (November)
  
• World Tour Finals (November)
  
• Australian Open (January)
  

Still damned impressive, but definitely not 8 months worth of missed points.

Of course, he didn't play Miami either, but I didn't include that in the list because it was after he returned from injury. He had the opportunity to play it but elected not to out of caution.

Interesting to note that there are 5 big events Rafa has never won. Cinci is one. All four of the others are included in Cogen's post.

Regardless of postion, I think that the Top 3 are now so closely matched in ability - we're in for some cracking times during the next couple of years, provided Rafa can stay relatively healthy

But, whoever is number three, has a far potential bigger problem - so strangely being in the top 2 is more important than No.1

Cogen wrote:Yeah, if Nadal becomes no.1 after the USO, he'll have done it without having the opportunity to play 4 of the 'big' tournaments since his comeback:

• Shanghai (October)
  
• Paris (November)
  
• World Tour Finals (November)
  
• Australian Open (January)
  

Still damned impressive, but definitely not 8 months worth of missed points.

Of course, he didn't play Miami either, but I didn't include that in the list because it was after he returned from injury. He had the opportunity to play it but elected not to out of caution.

Born Slippy wrote:Interesting to note that there are 5 big events Rafa has never won. Cinci is one. All four of the others are included in Cogen's post.

Cogen. Nadal didn't play from his exit in Wimbledon in June 2012 until mid February 2013. Since his return he has played just one tournament that he missed through injury from last years schedule and he is ranked 3. It's not eight months because he's played Wimbledon, then nothing for 6/7 weeks and then Cincy but it is roughly half a years worth of missed points. No one said anything about Miami as that wasn't in his injury period. They are the biggest four events he will have missed if he regains the number one position after the US but there are points available elsewhere too.

Born Slippy. What are you talking about? Nadal has won the AO and Madrid indoors (replaced on the calender by Shanghai). He's also been a finalist in Paris and the WTF so not too far away with them.

So he has played from February to August but is somehow still missing 8 months from his record? Interesting maths.

In relation to my comment, I was merely pointing out that the events he has missed are not ones where traditionally he has a history of success. Sure he's still done reasonably well on them - he's an all-time great. However, they are not ones he would bank on racking up significant points. I don't think there is an event left this year which he has won more than once? Id still make him fav for ye1 though after winning in Canada.

Nadal's breakdown is actually really impressive to look at this year. He's so far competed in 11 events. Of those, he has won 8 titles, and reach the final in 2 others. His only bad tournament has been the shocker first round at Wimbledon.

Of course, 8 of those 11 events were on clay, which helps no doubt...

But here's a stat for you... Nadal is undefeated on hardcourts this year!

So Murray's achieved his first objective (I would assume) be seeded 2nd at the US

I don't understand the Maths here. If Murray loses the quarter final, he is on 8700 and if Nadal wins the tournament, he'll be on 8860. So doesn't Murray need one more win to secure the 2nd seed at the US Open?

YvonneT wrote:I don't understand the Maths here. If Murray loses the quarter final, he is on 8700 and if Nadal wins the tournament, he'll be on 8860. So doesn't Murray need one more win to secure the 2nd seed at the US Open?  

Neither do I. But I trust 'the Cogen'  

Don't trust me so readily! I made a boo-boo!

Not sure how that has gone unchecked all week. Haha. That's what happens when you rush things... Fixed now, thanks Yvonne.

Things aren't looking great for Federer right now. If he loses to Nadal, and Del Potro beats Tursonov, then Federer will be down 2 places to no.7...

Cogen. I'm very disappointed in you  But even Big Ben gets out of synch once in a blue moon  

Mmm... The maths is tricky for Nadal as his goal won't be the number two slot. If he gets to number 2 prior to the US Open then he has no chance of meeting Djokovic in the semi's there. Beating Djokovic in the semi's rather than the final would hasten his path to number 1. Winning Cincy would also mean he'd have that ugly trophy spoiling the aesthetics of his trophy display.

http://binaryapi.ap.org/b99344d1d42e40bf8d66bb5313bf48ba/460x.jpg

Yuk! I think Mirka has warned Federer not to bring any more of those ugly pots home too. When he protested that it would mean he would drop to 7 in the rankings. She just said "Deal with it that's your problem"...