odds for Rabo

Betting (well paddypower at any rate) suggests the following league positions:

Leinster
Ulster
Glasgow
Ospreys
Munster
Scarlets
Cardiff
Treviso
Edinburgh
Connacht
Dragons
Zebre

I expect Leinster to be a little weaker this year - not convinced they will finish top (albeit they'll be in the play-offs) and also expect Cardiff to finish higher.

Looking at that I think some teams (Leinster and Munster) are probably higher up the table based on their name than how likely they are to win.

Of course bookies are seldom wrong, but I do have a feeling Dragons will finish a bit higher than that.

I agree on Leinster. I think Ulster and Glasgow will be top two this time.

View on Leinster is purely on the basis that last year they won a good couple of tight games because their experience got them through i.e. they have the confidence to win in those situations.

While not doubting that their will to win will still be their, rather there are a couple of teams that might not capitulate under that pressure in the same way this year. Reference Glasgow who grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory on two occasions last year when playing them.

I've said it before, but it'll be interesting to see how Leinster go without Isa Nacewa. So often he'd be the one to provide a spark in tight games.

I have a feeling that the Welsh teams may do a bit better than anticipated and that the "big two" Irish clubs may struggle slightly, which to be honest will be good for the league.

I've always wondered, but do posters find that their thinking is governed by mean reversion or by momentum, i.e. mean reversion - those that were top will drop a little and be caught by other, and those that were bottom must surely improve; momentum - those that were top last year will just keep on getting better, and those that were less good, thanks for coming? Or do you feel that you manage to contain these natural biases?

Edinburgh to win the league*. You heard it here first!







By the year 2050

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:I've always wondered, but do posters find that their thinking is governed by mean reversion or by momentum, i.e. mean reversion - those that were top will drop a little and be caught by other, and those that were bottom must surely improve; momentum - those that were top last year will just keep on getting better, and those that were less good, thanks for coming?  Or do you feel that you manage to contain these natural biases?

I judge it on mean reversion more so that momentum. Mainly though I'd see if the team strengthened or weakened over the summer and if they over or under performed last season. Those that have strengthened include Munster, Connacht, Dragons etc. Leinster look a little weaker. I don't know too much about the players the Welsh, Italians or Scots brought in.

Risca Rev wrote:Of course bookies are seldom wrong, but I do have a feeling Dragons will finish a bit higher than that.

I agree on Leinster. I think Ulster and Glasgow will be top two this time.

Bookies are constantly wrong,it's just that they give such crap odds it doesn't matter.

I'm not sure who the big two are in Irish rugby these days. For my part I think that Ulster will do the best of the Irish sides this year. They have the most settled squad.

Haven't looked at the book on this, but my guess from experience is it will be about 130 to 135, I.e. large margin to the bookies. Odds and therefore placing will be moved by the money, which will clearly come from Irish, Blues and Spreys, so if you see 'value' for your team go for it.

Munster should place a lot higher than last year, IMO.