Bookies Favourites for This Weekend

Remember that the odds offered by bookies will reflect the bets being placed.

Saracens 8/15 - Toulouse 13/8
Leicester 1/25 - Treviso 16/1 (surely worth a small wager on the Italians at those odds?)
Blues 7/2 - Toulon 2/9
Zebre 7/5 - Connacht 4/6 (connacht narowish favourites is interesting)
Leinster 1/10 - Castre 8/1
Montpelier 2/5 - ulster 9/4
Llanelli - Racing evens
Munster 2/9 - Gloucester 9/2
Northampton 1/4 - Ospreys 7/2 (Surprised Saints are such strong favourites)
Perpignan 2/17 - Edinburgh 7/1 (Come on Scots open thos wallets and back your team)
Glasgow 4/11 - Exeter 3/1
Clermont 1/16 - Quins 12/1

depressing that treviso away at 16/1 are worth a flutter and quins away at 12/1 arent...

quinsforever wrote: depressing that treviso away at 16/1 are worth a flutter and quins away at 12/1 arent...

Cue Tw@t40.........

My view - coming from a fair bit of experience betting on the HC - is to forget about the match odds but take a look at what the bookies are offering on spreads. What are they offering on Quins starting +7 against Clermont etc etc.

Also maybe think of combining a few bets using the bookies spread into a double or treble - even three 1-1 bts combined into a treble will give odds of more than 3-1 if all three legs of the treble come in.

First rule though, don't get carried away!

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:

quinsforever wrote: depressing that treviso away at 16/1 are worth a flutter and quins away at 12/1 arent...

Cue Tw@t40.........

LOL

clermont 50 - 0 sesame street  

Surprise the odds for Cardiff win aren't more.

Wonder what you can get for an accumulator.

The two I think are most interesting are Exeter and Gloucester. I have a feeling one of them will spring an upset.

I am not a gambler at all, would occasionally have a flutter on first try scorer though, always long odds to be had. Used to put €1 on John Hayes to score the first try in Irish 6nations games for years... 63k in the hole now, they're gonna take my thumbs!

VietGwentRevisited wrote:Remember that the odds offered by bookies will reflect the bets being placed.

Saracens 8/15 - Toulouse 13/8
Leicester 1/25 - Treviso 16/1  (surely worth a small wager on the Italians at those odds?)
Blues 7/2 - Toulon 2/9
Zebre 7/5 - Connacht 4/6 (connacht narowish favourites is interesting)
Leinster 1/10 - Castre 8/1
Montpelier 2/5 - ulster 9/4
Llanelli - Racing evens
Munster 2/9 - Gloucester 9/2
Northampton 1/4 - Ospreys 7/2 (Surprised Saints are such strong favourites)
Perpignan 2/17 - Edinburgh 7/1 (Come on Scots open thos wallets and back your team)
Glasgow 4/11 - Exeter 3/1
Clermont 1/16 - Quins 12/1

Surely that should be Scarlets? Llanelli would be slaughtered. Still can't believe that is evens.

VietGwentRevisited wrote:Remember that the odds offered by bookies will reflect the bets being placed.

Leicester 1/25 - Treviso 16/1  (surely worth a small wager on the Italians at those odds?)

It is, for some reasons Treviso are taking this game a lot more seriously than against Montpellier (where they played a 14 at 10, a 13 on the wing, brought in a winger on the flank and a scrum half at 13, all that with having an out and out 10 on the bench...)

Given those odds my money would be on the Ospreys. Would still be an upset if they do get the win but I'm surprised the bookies don't have it down as being closer.

I'd stick a groat on Exeter.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:I'd stick a groat on Exeter.

Fixed that for you, Port. You'd do more than that if you could get away with it, you naughty old man!

Come on them there Chiefs!

Lets show them Raboprovos where they stand    

Both Glasgow and Edinburgh are good bets at those prices

Sarries and Leinster to lose at home.

You heard it here first....

Exeter at 3-1 look a decent bet too, they were awesome against the Blues.

Glasgow are a much tougher opponent than the blues and are at home.

Spreads at the minute looking like;
Saracens - Toulouse (+4)
Leicester  - Treviso (+22)
Blues (+10) - Toulon
Zebre (+3)  - Connacht
Leinster - Castre (+16)
Montpelier  - ulster (+7)
Llanelli - Racing (evens)
Munster - Gloucester (+10)
Northampton  - Ospreys (+10)
Perpignan  - Edinburgh  (+13)
Glasgow  - Exeter (+7)
Clermont  - Quins (+17)


Treviso, Castre and Quins look like value there.

rodders wrote:Sarries and Leinster to lose at home.

You heard it here first....

Exeter at 3-1 look a decent bet too, they were awesome against the Blues.

rodders I would be very surprised if either Sarries or Leinster lose.

Toulouse have been imperious at home but it would be a first for the season to win away, especially to a side who don't lose many at "home".

The only teams to defeat Saracens at "home" were Saints and Toulon last season. Leicester did draw admittedly too.

Definitely bet on Castres if you genuinely think they'll win.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Spreads at the minute looking like;
Saracens - Toulouse (+4)
Leicester  - Treviso (+22)
Blues (+10) - Toulon
Zebre (+3)  - Connacht
Leinster - Castre (+16)
Montpelier  - ulster (+7)
Llanelli - Racing (evens)
Munster - Gloucester (+10)
Northampton  - Ospreys (+10)
Perpignan  - Edinburgh  (+13)
Glasgow  - Exeter (+7)
Clermont  - Quins (+17)


Treviso, Castre and Quins look like value there.

I think Exeter and Gloucester look like good value too.

Quins not so much actually. I think Clermont will smash them. Sorry Quins fans.

I had Edinburgh at 8-1 and with the Weegies of course winning on the weekend I should rack up 123 rats for a tenner!!

beshocked wrote:Surprise the odds for Cardiff win aren't more.

Wonder what you can get for an accumulator.

The two I think are most interesting are Exeter and Gloucester. I have a feeling one of them will spring an upset.

Good points.

Exeter put 40 points on Cardiff in 50 minutes before getting exceedingly careless in garbaage time.  That was very much out of character for Exe, and Baxter will be on them for it.  Plus Glasgow were hammered even worse than Cardiff yet remain favourites.  I don't get it, but the bookies must know more than me. I still think Exe as a good chance in that one.  

 Cardiff are back home, which is in their favour.  Toulon do generally play more conservatively away from home, so maybe its the combination of the two factors keeping the odds where they are?  I actually think Toulon will be struggling a bit in this one, at least at the beginning, but then should find their footing.

I can't see Gloucester getting the win, though I do think it will be close.  I simply can't see Munster losing their first two matches in the Heineken Cup, and be on the cusp of elimination.  Just doesn't seem Munster, if you know what I mean?  Teams like that know how to pull out wins.  

Notch wrote:Given those odds my money would be on the Ospreys. Would still be an upset if they do get the win but I'm surprised the bookies don't have it down as being closer.

I'd be disappointed if Saints lose because they seem to be a better team this season than in the past plus they are at home.  Corbs is hurt which will be a huge benefit to Ospreys.  I think it will be a close one, and I agree, Notch, closer than the odds are indicating. Could easily go down to the wire.

Edinburgh with +13 is tempting. Although last week I thought Glasgow with +20 was good and look how that turned out!

I'm also surprised that Leinster are such strong favourites - they are playing the French champions after all

I was going to do an accumulator this week as there are some good odds on offer.

Particularly Scarlets vs Racing who are both 10/11.  So basically get that one right and you can fill the rest of the accumulator with easier picks.

However, given that the odds on the Ospreys are so good, I'm now tempted to do a Scarlets, Ospreys double which offers 7/1.  Otherwise a Scarlets, Glasgow, Connacht treble which returns just shy of 3/1.

Decisions decisions.

Really interesting looking at home and away win stats in the HC.

The best away from home are Toulouse,Leinster and Saracens at 55% with Toulon at 56%

Best at home are Toulon, 100% Munster (92%), Toulouse (85%) Leicester (81%),Gloucester (80%) Leinster (79%),Clermont (79%)


Worst away from home are Glasgow at 9%, Treviso at 11% Castres at 14%, Edinburgh 16% Ospreys 21 %


This tells me that if you are going to back an away win go for Toulouse. Do not back Edinburgh,Castres,Ospreys or Treviso.


If I was a betting man I would go for Exeter.

I'm thinking a tenner on Castres and a tenner on Treviso.

What time period is that Beshocked?

The reason I ask Ulster have only lost 1 in their last 15 which equates to a score better than all above bar Toulon.
I guess it is since the tournament began

Geoff it's overall record.

You are right more recent home records are relevant but history also has a say too.

Haven't Clermont been unbeaten at home in the HC for something like 4 years?

Bathite wrote:Haven't Clermont been unbeaten at home in the HC for something like 4 years?

A lot of signs that they aren't the team of the last few seasons though.  A couple of 40 point losses in the Top 14 and lost last week to a pretty average Racing side who didn't have a lot more than a hell of a lot of commitment.  That Racing outfit has a good pack but a backline thats struggling to function and Clermont looked very average against them bar the individual performance of Svivatu. They also have Parra missing for this match (4 week ban).  If I was ever going to back Clermont to lose at home in the HC now would be the time were it not for how poor Harlequins have been.

geoff999rugby wrote:What time period is that Beshocked?

The reason I ask Ulster have only lost 1 in their last 15 which equates to a score better than all above bar Toulon.
I guess it is since the tournament began

And also, Toulon's first HC game was only a couple of years ago.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I'm thinking a tenner on Castres and a tenner on Treviso.

Sorry for quoting myself, but I've placed my bets. I got Treviso at 16/1 and Castres at 7/1.

I've bet on Quins. I think we'll probably lose but I've never got to bet on Quins at those odds before

Castres have announced their team, apparently it's the strongest team they have (I wouldn't know).

I hope Rods and Luckless have no luck with at least half of their bets.

ChequeredJersey wrote:I've bet on Quins. I think we'll probably lose but I've never got to bet on Quins at those odds before

Despite Clermont's poor form, Quins don't even have any second rows starting....Easter is at 5. Think they could be in for a hard time.

Mickado wrote:Castres have announced their team, apparently it's the strongest team they have (I wouldn't know).

I hope Rods and Luckless have no luck with at least half of their bets.

I wouldn't mind too much if one of my bets doesn't come off. I'll let you guess which one!

In the end I went for an Ulster, Scarlets and Connacht treble at 11/1

Artful_Dodger wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:I've bet on Quins. I think we'll probably lose but I've never got to bet on Quins at those odds before

Despite Clermont's poor form, Quins don't even have any second rows starting....Easter is at 5.  Think they could be in for a hard time.

Robson's starting!

But yeah, our pack will be struggling

Notch wrote:Given those odds my money would be on the Ospreys. Would still be an upset if they do get the win but I'm surprised the bookies don't have it down as being closer.

Yes. That's where my money would go. Given that its a decent Welsh team, on the rack, against  an overrated English team, all normal bets are off.

Artful_Dodger wrote:In the end I went for an Ulster, Scarlets and Connacht treble at 11/1

Scarlets win and I'm up £55.

So, so close

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I'm thinking a tenner on Castres and a tenner on Treviso.

Sorry for quoting myself, but I've placed my bets. I got Treviso at 16/1 and Castres at 7/1.

Well that's 20 quid I'll never see again. I was pretty disappointed with Castres, they were getting on top, then they took of Rory Cockott, their inside centre got a yellow for a stupid no-arm tackle and their replacement scrum half must have been deaf or something. In fairness to Leinster though, they raised their game.

Gibson wrote:

Notch wrote:Given those odds my money would be on the Ospreys. Would still be an upset if they do get the win but I'm surprised the bookies don't have it down as being closer.

Yes. That's where my money would go. Given that its a decent Welsh team, on the rack, against  an overrated English team, all normal bets are off.

Why have you been acting like such a WUM in the last few days?

When I placed the bet I honestly didn't think it would come in - a four-way accumulator on all the Irish provinces with spread offered by Paddy Power. Confident enough in Munster and Leinster, reasonably confident in Connacht and not confident in Ukster turning over Montp away. But joy oh joy, the nordies did us proud. €10 bet returns €195 - sometimes patriotism gets in the way on sensible betting but happily not on this occasion. Sweet!

brennomac wrote:When I placed the bet I honestly didn't think it would come in - a four-way accumulator on all the Irish provinces with spread offered by Paddy Power. Confident enough in Munster and Leinster, reasonably confident in Connacht and not confident in Ukster turning over Montp away.  But joy oh joy, the nordies did us proud.  €10 bet returns €195 - sometimes patriotism gets in the way on sensible betting but happily not on this occasion. Sweet!

Congrats! Mines a pint