OWGR Week 47

With 24 of the 30 man field posted for the NedBank it appears as though the event will be at the 46-48 range....  As of now it's a 46 with 6 players yet to be named.

At this point, the 18-player Northwestern Mutual World Challenge would be a 46 level event as well...  and probably won't decline below that level barring a key WD.  It should be noted that the NedBank is benefiting by 46 "home point" while the WC doesn't get any (being an event below 30 players).   Current "world point counts" are 221 for the NedBank and 276 for the World Challenge.

Last I checked... the World Cup was looking to be a 42 event (I'll confirm later) and at quick glance it appears the South African Open will play at it's guaranteed 32 but no higher (I'll confirm that one later too).

EDIT:  The NedBank above has been corrected to 46...

So Nedbank not far off the similarly sized Tour Championship (60 points). Not bad for a non-event. Oops, it's free money (last place earns $100K), free OWGR, biased qualification criteria and counts towards R2D...

From a sportive point of view I can hardly see the need of both this tournament and the Volvo Golf Champions. Both will help ensuring that successful players remain successful, making it more difficult for second tier players to make their mark on the tour and the R2D. All other players on Tour have to make up a min. $100K deficit already from day 1 - which is quite a lot mind you.

There's an open door to qualify via the SA Open and Dunhill, but come on...

pedro wrote:So Nedbank not far off the similarly sized Tour Championship (60 points). Not bad for a non-event.

Not really that close... currently the NedBank is at 221 "world points"... the Tour Championship was at 435, almost double.

And I understand your point about all the "other guys" having to "make up" for money earned by the top guys in these small events, but it's never really bothered me.  Reason being, all those top guys played within the same system to gain their status of entry into these special events... an avenue available to every one of those "other guys" if they're good enough to earn it.

Robo:  If the guys are that good, they don't need the competitive advantage.  I don't care about the guaranteed money as it reward for playing well, just that guaranteed money should not be "Official Money".  

The Dubai World Championship and Tour Championship are a little different, since it at the end of the season they do not affect the money standings at the tail end.

The guaranteed money is a euphemism for appearance money and appearance money is not "official money".

There should be no artificial competitive advantage for players.  If they are better than the 2nd tier players, they don't need the competitive advantage.

 robo,

But don't agree with yr response to pedro - there are too many "limited field / no cut" events which serve only to make the rich richer and dead-bolt the lock on the closed shop.

Sure there's room for a Jordan Spieth or a Matsuyama to break through, but there is an increasing number of golfers who are at the ATM every week on the back of mediocre performances, occasionally redeemed but padded inexorably with the no-cut points not available to others.

But we could have this discussion all day long!
And on a positive note Van Pelt has finally departed the Top 50 and looks like Piercy is just about to do the same.

GPB wrote:I don't care about the guaranteed money as it reward for playing well, just that guaranteed money should not be "Official Money".  

Above a certain point, I could agree with that.... and looking closer it appears to me the NedBank qualifies as "WELL above a certain" point. $100K for last place is HUGE boost on the Euro Tour...  For the 2013 season, Paul Lawrie was #110 on the money list with about $315k... so if those numbers hold similar for 2014... $100K represents around 30% of what a Euro Tour player needs to keep his card... WAAAAAY too much...

The PGAT has effectively mitigated a lot of the undesirable effect of money guarantees, by switching their benchmarks to FedEx points (which are a lot less than money at the bottom end of the scale) but this NedBank thing on the Euro Tour is just WHACK...

kwinigolfer wrote: robo,

But don't agree with yr response to pedro - there are too many "limited field / no cut" events which serve only to make the rich richer and dead-bolt the lock on the closed shop.

Sure there's room for a Jordan Spieth or a Matsuyama to break through, but there is an increasing number of golfers who are at the ATM every week on the back of mediocre performances, occasionally redeemed but padded inexorably with the no-cut points not available to others.

But we could have this discussion all day long!
And on a positive note Van Pelt has finally departed the Top 50 and looks like Piercy is just about to do the same.

PEDRO... In my earlier response, I totally missed the significance of what $100K last place means on the Euro Tour...  see my responses to GPB above and Kwini below...

Kwini,  seem my response to GPB...  After looking into it further I think the NedBank has the potential of INCREDIBLY skewing the R2D standings...  When you look at #110 cutoff... LAST place in the NedBank earns a guy about 1/3rd of his annual "money nut"... that's just plain crazy....

But in the larger scale of things... I still disagree that the OWGR guarantees are all that significant.  

They are so slight for the non-performers in these types of events they are hardly meaningful (certainly far, far less meaningful than the official money guarantees)...  Of course there will always be examples of some guy missing out on top-50 or Top-64 benchmark by a fraction of a point.  But I would think at least as often as not, the guy who missed out is playing in the same amount of these "guaranteed" events as they guy who beat him out.    

And then when you look at the annual turnover in the OWGR top-50 or top-100... IMO sufficient turnover is there. At year end 2012, 12 out of top-50 OWGR turned over as did 26 of the top-100...  This year with 6 weeks to go,  the turnover is at 11 top-50 and 34 top-100 players.   I don't know what percentage of turnover should be expected in a perfectly "fair" world... but seems to me,  1/4 to 1/3 turnover is enough to suggest there's anything but a  "closed shop" going on out there.  IMO a sufficient amount of new blood IS getting a shot... and it seems apparent they are taking advantage of it.

robo,  

The skewing of the R2D is exactly my point. $100K is a top5 finish on your average regular ET tournament - which is not that easy to achieve. In essence tournaments like the Nedbank is a way to tell the top tier players not to bother turning up at Wales Open or Nordea Masters type tournaments.

I think I understand why the ET is doing it but it doesn't seem like the long term solution to salvage the ET.

In the past when we had the Volvo Match Play at Wentworth, the official money was just a certain percentage of the prize money (which were huge). Think it was 60% or so. That was exactly to avoid skewing the order of merit. A system like that could be implemented for free-money, no cut tourneys. Alternatively a FedEx points like system, as mentioned by robo, could be used. But since the objective seems to keep the top players on the ET, it will probably not happen today or tomorrow.

I miss the Wentworth Matchplay.

super_realist wrote:I miss the Wentworth Matchplay.

At least it's an ET event Ernie Els would probably bother showing up at...

Final OWGR counts for the week came out: World Cup (40), South Africa Open (32), Dunlop Phoenix (26), Latino America Chile (6), Australia Gloria Jean's (6).  NOTE: Without the "flagship" minimum and Euro Tour co-sanction, the S.A. Open would have come in at a 16 level event (26+20=46 Event rating values/ERV... compare to Sunshine Tour minimum of 14).  Japan's 26 rating is based on 66+50=116 ERV... World Cup is 209+14=223 ERV

A few potential OWGR moves of players in contention (best possible scenarios).

WORLD CUP (40) - With a win:
Jason Day could move as high as #11 from #18
Thomas Bjorn as high as #25 from #44
Francesco Molinari as high as #25 from #37
Kevin Streelman as high as #31 from #46
Graeme McDowell as high as #9 from #12
Adam Scott would remain #2 but would move to within 1.8 points of #1

SOUTH AFRICAN OPEN (32) - With a win:
Charl Scwhartzel could move as high as #15 from #22

DUNLOP PHOENIX JAPAN (26) - With a win:
Luke Donald could move as high as #14 from #17
Hideki Matsuyama as high as #23 from #28

Good for Day and Donald, pretty good for Bjorn, not made for Gonzo.
Wasted for Keegan Bradley and Tommy Fleetwood.

Final OWGR for Week 47 (no player in the LatinoAmerica event can affect the top-100)

Notes:  

* Top-10 remains unchanged
* No players moved in or out of the top-50
* Last week's #'s 99 & 100 Marcus Fraser and Matthew Jones fall out of the top-100 to #'s 101-102

WORLD CUP
* With his win in the World cup Jason Day moves up from #18 to #11
* Adam Scott remains #2 but is now 2.32 points out of #1. (just under 100 event points behind)
* McDowell's T15 is enough to edge past Poulter for #12
* Ryo Ishikwa's T5 moves him back into the top-100 at #88

SOUTH AFRICAN OPEN
* With his win, Morton Madsen moves from #244 to #121
* By falling to T4, Charl Schwartzel moves up only one spot to #21

DUNLOP PHOENIX  - JAPAN
* Luke Donald wins to move from #17 to #15
* 3rd place finisher Shingo Katayama moves to #86 from #113

GLORIA JEAN'S - AUSTRALIA
* Winner Aron Price moves up as high as #479 pending outcome of LatinoAmerica event

LATINO AMERICA - Results to come

1 - (1) - 12.1147 - Tiger Woods
2 - (2) - 9.7967 - Adam Scott
3 - (3) - 8.9401 - Henrik Stenson
4 - (4) - 7.6967 - Phil Mickelson
5 - (5) - 7.6296 - Justin Rose
6 - (6) - 6.5079 - Rory McIlroy
7 - (7) - 6.3759 - Matt Kuchar
8 - (8) - 6.1306 - Steve Stricker
9 - (9) - 5.7377 - Brandt Snedeker
10 - (10) - 5.3845 - Jason Dufner
11 - (18) - 5.3491 - Jason Day
12 - (12) - 5.2949 - Graeme McDowell
13 - (11) - 5.2562 - Ian Poulter
14 - (13) - 5.2126 - Dustin Johnson
15 - (17) - 5.0047 - Luke Donald
16 - (14) - 4.9669 - Zach Johnson
17 - (15) - 4.8166 - Jim Furyk
18 - (16) - 4.6810 - Keegan Bradley
19 - (19) - 4.4626 - Sergio Garcia
20 - (20) - 4.4428 - Webb Simpson
21 - (22) - 4.3864 - Charl Schwartzel
22 - (21) - 4.2735 - Jordan Spieth
23 - (23) - 4.0393 - Lee Westwood
24 - (24) - 3.8711 - Ernie Els
25 - (28) - 3.6415 - Hideki Matsuyama
26 - (27) - 3.5521 - Nick Watney
27 - (25) - 3.5456 - Bill Haas
28 - (26) - 3.5189 - Bubba Watson
29 - (29) - 3.4411 - Hunter Mahan
30 - (30) - 3.4127 - Jamie Donaldson
31 - (32) - 3.3581 - Victor Dubuisson
32 - (30) - 3.3066 - Louis Oosthuizen
33 - (33) - 3.2744 - Ryan Moore
34 - (44) - 3.0581 - Thomas Bjorn
35 - (34) - 3.0467 - Graham Delaet
36 - (35) - 3.0192 - Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
37 - (37) - 2.9197 - Francesco Molinari
38 - (36) - 2.8546 - Martin Kaymer
39 - (39) - 2.8253 - Jonas Blixt
40 - (41) - 2.8048 - Billy Horschel
41 - (38) - 2.7860 - Matteo Manassero
42 - (40) - 2.7700 - Rickie Fowler
43 - (46) - 2.7429 - Kevin Streelman
44 - (42) - 2.7116 - David Lynn
45 - (45) - 2.6390 - Jimmy Walker
46 - (43) - 2.6216 - Peter Hanson
47 - (47) - 2.4982 - Miguel A Jimenez
48 - (49) - 2.4910 - Thongchai Jaidee
49 - (50) - 2.4823 - Richard Sterne
50 - (48) - 2.4803 - Scott Piercy
- - - -
51 - (52) - 2.4487 - Branden Grace
52 - (56) - 2.4299 - Bernd Wiesberger
53 - (51) - 2.4251 - Bo Van Pelt
54 - (53) - 2.4225 - Boo Weekley
55 - (55) - 2.4212 - Joost Luiten
56 - (54) - 2.4036 - Harris English
57 - (57) - 2.2859 - Gary Woodland
58 - (58) - 2.2562 - Thorbjorn Olesen
59 - (59) - 2.1978 - Chris Kirk
60 - (68) - 2.1351 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat
61 - (60) - 2.1318 - Angel Cabrera
62 - (62) - 2.1238 - Stephen Gallacher
63 - (61) - 2.1028 - D.A. Points
64 - (63) - 2.0689 - Nicolas Colsaerts
65 - (82) - 2.0539 - Kim Hyung-sung
66 - (67) - 2.0368 - Brendon de Jonge
67 - (64) - 2.0252 - Peter Uihlein
68 - (66) - 1.9943 - Tim Clark
69 - (65) - 1.9928 - Marc Leishman
70 - (69) - 1.9571 - Roberto Castro
71 - (70) - 1.9214 - Michael Thompson
72 - (71) - 1.9207 - Chris Wood
73 - (72) - 1.9162 - Robert Garrigus
74 - (73) - 1.9153 - Patrick Reed
75 - (75) - 1.8719 - Shane Lowry
76 - (74) - 1.8608 - Charles Howell-III
77 - (76) - 1.8214 - Luke Guthrie
78 - (77) - 1.8201 - Brett Rumford
79 - (78) - 1.8118 - Chris Stroud
80 - (80) - 1.8084 - Ross Fisher
81 - (79) - 1.7911 - Martin Laird
82 - (81) - 1.7660 - Mikko Ilonen
83 - (88) - 1.7607 - Koumei Oda
84 - (83) - 1.7575 - Marcel Siem
85 - (84) - 1.7234 - Russell Henley
86 - (113) - 1.7232 - Shingo Katayama
87 - (86) - 1.7125 - Fredrik Jacobson
88 - (110) - 1.7069 - Ryo Ishikawa
89 - (87) - 1.7038 - John Merrick
90 - (91) - 1.7016 - George Coetzee
91 - (85) - 1.6996 - Carl Pettersson
92 - (89) - 1.6884 - Alexander Noren
93 - (92) - 1.6703 - Brooks Koepka
94 - (90) - 1.6639 - Paul Lawrie
95 - (93) - 1.6547 - John Huh
96 - (97) - 1.6454 - David Howell
97 - (94) - 1.6434 - Paul Casey
98 - (96) - 1.6390 - Pablo Larrazabal
99 - (95) - 1.6390 - Charley Hoffman
100 - (98) - 1.6114 - Scott Stallings
- - - -
101 - (99) - 1.6045 - Marcus Fraser
102 - (100) - 1.5991 - Matthew Jones
103 - (112) - 1.5924 - Gregory Bourdy
104 - (101) - 1.5911 - Ken Duke
105 - (102) - 1.5774 - Kevin Chappell
- - - -
121 - (244) - 1.3994 Morten Orum Madsen

Robo: Is the Gloria Jean's Event not a PGA Australasian Event?  And get 16 points for a win?

http://www.pga.org.au/tour-schedule

Less than a 0.1 point separate 10 players around the critical top 50 bubble from #47 to #56 with a just a few tournaments left before year end and Masters invites on the line.

I think Harris English and Boo Weekley are the only 2 players of the 10 that are already getting a letter from Billy Payne.

Thanks robo,
Disappointing to see Schwartzel (and Hennie Otto, what form he's been in!) fumble at the goal line, but pleasing to see another Dane in the winners circle. Given his success in S.A. it's a little surprising not to see Anders Hansen's name in that field.

Wasted chance at cheap points for Martin Laird, and Peter Hanson will soon be following BVP out of the Top 50.

GPB wrote:Robo: Is the Gloria Jean's Event not a PGA Australasian Event?  And get 16 points for a win?

http://www.pga.org.au/tour-schedule

Less than a 0.1 point separate 10 players around the critical top 50 bubble from #47 to #56 with a just a few tournaments left before year end and Masters invites on the line.

I think Harris English and Boo Weekley are the only 2 players of the 10 that are already getting a letter from Billy Payne.

The Gloria Jeans is considered an Australasian Tour "state level" event with a minimum of 6 points.  I think they have only 4 events on that tour that AREN'T considered "state level" (Perth, Masters, PGA, Open)

And good point on the top-50 bubble.  I don't see a lot of those guys entered in either the Australian Open, Nedbank or WC... so it may be a battle of attrition or divisor changes that sets the top-50.

Not much a of Tour if there are only 4 events.

GPB wrote:Not much a of Tour if there are only 4 events.

Yep, except for their 4 bigger events, they're pretty much a Canadian, Korean or LatinoAmerica level tour.

Grace, Sterne, Luiten are playing Nedbank.

Woodland just outside that 50 Bubble could spoil someones invite if he plays well at Nedbank.  I think he is already in the Masters via Top 30 FedEx.

GPB wrote:Grace, Sterne, Luiten are playing Nedbank.

Woodland just outside that 50 Bubble could spoil someones invite if he plays well at Nedbank.  I think he is already in the Masters via Top 30 FedEx.

Yeah... looking deeper.... it seems it's mostly a case of the "rest of the world" is pretty much battling it out for those last spots (and I'm counting Uihlein as ROW for purposes of this post).  Quick Glance:  Seems the only American at risk is Scott Piercy at #50 (seems like he needs a perfect storm of luck to hold on)... and possibly Fowler at #42 (but I doubt it as he loses 2 off his divisor).

Also the Euro/Sunshine has 2 other events in addition to the Nedbank.... Plus the Euro Tour has Hong Kong, and the Japan Tour has 2 more (with 3 japan players lurking in the 80s, but kinda doubtful if those 2 will yield enough points)

Bottom line: lots of potential for movement... but most the guys at risk at least have events to play in if they so choose.

By the way... NedBank is over the 48 threshold now... I doubt it gets to 50 level with 3 players to go... but it's possible.