Breaking Even in 2014

Hey,

I just want to say hi to everyone, I'm new to this forum but have been reading articles here for a while now just haven't had the time to join a new forum for quite some time. So I thought I would kick start with my own preview of the coming season all be it just after the first warm up tournaments have ended. I hope you enjoy!


Going into a new season all the players have goals whether they be very specific ones such as Djokovic wanting the french or more general ones such as Wawrinka maintaining his place in the top 10 . I've put forward, for the big names anyway, what I think they all need to do to break even. By break even I mean what I think they would need to achieve in order not to call it a disappointing season by their standards.

Rafael Nadal - Break Even: win at least two slams

I think Nadal would be disappointed not to win at least two slams in 2014 since he is coming off a great 2013 and he and Djokovic are the men to beat in the men's game, despite Murray's recent slam success. Two more slams for him would put him above Sampras and outright second place in the slam list. I don't think it matters too much to Rafa which of the slams he wins but ideally an Australian Open and another Wimbledon would wrap things up nicely. Of course his season will depend, mainly, on two things; his knees and his meetings with Djokovic. If he stays healthy and maintains a winning record against Djokovic in the biggest tournaments then he could be on his way to breaking even.

Novak Djokovic - Break Even: win at least two slams/win the French Open

Djokovic's 2013 season was definitely a book ended year, he started strongly and finished strongly but faltered in the middle having not won a tournament between Dubai and Beijing with some tough losses in between. Given his place with Nadal as the men to beat on tour he, similarly, would be disappointed not to win two slams by his lofty standards. However, given his recent obsession with the French Open I think he would also take another one slam season if it was to be the Roland Garros crown. Nadal is Djokovic's biggest obstacle to achieving this but I also think the decision to bring in Becker is a risk depending on what he Becker looks to change. Djokovic already has a fantastic game and if he hopes to tweak things too much he may end up suffering the way Padraig Harrington did in golf when he was at the top of his game. If Becker's influence is there just to squeeze a an extra 10% of consistency or mental strength in the pressure moments then it could be just what Djokovic needs, only time will tell.

Andy Murray - Break Even: Win another slam

This goal for Murray clearly depends on how well he comes back from his surgery and his future is perhaps the most unpredictable out of all the top players. Granted the nearest slam is right at the beginning of his comeback and my break even goal may be a little harsh, however, if he does make a full recovery I think he would be disappointed not to get a slam success this season. If he fails to do so people may question whether his two slams were just a moment in the sun for him due to a combination of Nadal's injuries and Djokovic's poor form. Also, he doesn't want to just slip back into the level of reaching slam finals and coming up short if it is against the top two.

Roger Federer - Break Even: Get to a slam final

Although many have prematurely predicted Federer's fall it seems that it did come in 2013 when he went three straight slams without getting past the QFs and failed to win a masters event with his only win being at Halle. Of course for Federer with everything he has won in his career anything he adds to this is essentially a bonus and there is no shame in losing some of his sharpness being in his thirties. However, because he is such a proud competitor and I think he does not care too much about adding more masters series to his haul I think he wants to show he can still compete on the biggest stage. I don't think it is a requirement for him to get to four slam finals in a row again but I think he still wants to show that on his day he can compete and he is still has one or two big performances in him and a deep run to a slam final would do this. If he flounders before the QFs or gets routinely beaten when he comes up against a top ten player then more worries about retirement will begin to loom.

Juan Martin Del Potro - Break Even: Get to a slam final and be consistent at the slams

Ever since Del Potro blistering run at the US Open in 2009 he has been tipped to fulfill his potential and be the next big contender at the slams. Of course, injuries have been cruel to him and greatly hindered his progress but for me Del Potro needs to do a couple of things this season in order to break even. He needs to get to a slam final and show some consistency at the slams. In the last couple of seasons Del Potro has been fulfilling the role of a dangerous player as opposed to a contender for the big prizes. He has failed to win a masters event and has only once made it past the quarter final stage at a slam in the last two years. It's great that Del Potro has put up some big performances in that time such as five sets classics vs Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2013 and Federer at RG in 2012 but sooner or later he has to start winning these matches as opposed to putting up a valiant effort. Yes he has Nadal, Djokovic and Murray to contend with but with Federer starting to age and being at the peak age of 25 I feel he needs to show he can regularly get to the business end of slam and also beat the top guys as opposed to just push them.


I'm interested to hear what other people think about this, do you think some of the goals I have set are too harsh? Or are there different achievements you think the players might want more?




DJB

Good summary DJB, I'd agree with most of it. If Rafa and Novak only one 1 slam each I don't think they'd be suicidal, but I see what you mean about them aiming for at least 2.

Only thing I think is a bit harsh is if Murray doesn't win another will his 2 wins have only been because of Rafa's injury and Novak's poor form. You could put any slam win down to the other finalist being 'not on top form' not just Murray, and the bottom line is he beat the world number 1 in both finals. I'm not into this idea of diluting slam wins.

So you've listed what you think the top players need to do... What do you think they will do? What's your predictions for how they'll actually do in the slams this year?

Oh, and welcome.   

Welcome DJB.

For Murray, I'd agree. It's too early in his comeback to win the AO and he's unlikely to ever win the FO (it'll be interesting to see how much of the clay court season he plays, given that it aggravates his back - maybe the surgery has fixed that). So basically he has 2 slams to play for and winning one of them has to be the break even point, maybe slightly above break even.

For JMDP, I think break even would be to win another slam. Otherwise he'll have gone 5 years since winning the USO, which will surely be a disappointment. Could do with a couple of Masters as well, and a solid top 4 ranking.

I'll let other posters comment on the other players.

I suppose for Nadal, he has to at least keep up with Federer's "ghost" (thus surpassing Sampras)... so two slams for him, I think. For Nole, I don't really know, he's on six slams, so I don't think he's catching Federer and Nadal -maybe he wants to get to ten... so he needs a slam, minimum?

I certainly hope JMDP can push on at the masters and slams. I don't think a player has ever gone up in my estimation more in defeat than he did in last years Wimbledon semi. His play, his movement, his conduct, his fight... A joy to watch.

I hope he's capable of pushing on, winning another slam or at least getting to a final. Last year was a step forward, but his record of 1 slam and 0 masters over his career would suggest we might be disappointed.

@Danny

I don't actually hold that opinion myself about Murray's slam wins but I do think others may push that argument if he fails to win one. I do think though that if he fails to beat Nadal or Djokovic then he is in danger of falling back into that level just behind the big two.

In terms of predictions I won't go too far to say what I think the will be for the slams at the moment but barring injuries I think it will be another Nadal Djokovic dominated year. The others will struggle to break even should these two stay strong.

Thanks for the welcome, I promise my next article will be shorter than this   

My next article will be "the"

Good article. And welcome!

I think and hope that Novak is of the mentality that one RG title is not greater than two titles from the others.

I think the break even points are probably about right but my feeling is that one of Andy or Novak will not win a slam this year.

Murray not winning a slam? Possible. Australia looks to be too early for him based on what we've seen so far since he came back. Therefore he has 2 more to aim for, Wimbledon being the most realistic.

Novak not winning a slam? Can't see it. Competetive on all surfaces, form player at the moment. I see him winning at least 1, in fact he's my tip for Melbourne.

Danny, as I see it, it's just a numbers game with Andy.

Australia is probably a bit soon after surgery and I think we agree Roland Garros is not on the cards. That leaves Wimbledon and USO.

History proves he can win USO but it's an event where I think a few players can, on their day, beat him there. He'd probably start as third favourite.

Wimbledon, he has to start as favourite. But crazy things can happen on grass!

I'd never write him off. But if he only really has two realistic chances, I don't think failing to win a slam in 2014 should be seen as a disaster or is necessarily is a huge step backwards. As long as he's playing well and getting wins against Rafa and Novak and going deep in slams i.e. proving he's back at that level, I'd still see it as a good year.

As for Novak, in theory the opportunity is there for to have a great year. But the hard truth is that since AO12, he's more often come up short in the big moments. I haven't yet seen any evidence to expect any different. If he beats Rafa in Oz, he could get on a roll. If Rafa beats him though... it might get nasty. I'm watching this space!

HMM - I once heard some tennis legend say 'for every month you're out, it'll take 2 to return to your best". If that's accurate, then we won't see the best of Andy until the grass, which would be a shame.

The biggest annoyance is this injury became unbearable and started affecting results just as he'd established himself right at the top of the game with 4 slam finals in a row and 2 wins... Now it feels like he's back where he was, chasing a couple of guys again. Which to be fair, he is.

I still think he'll win 1 this year, as once he's back in his stride and hopefully pain free he could be better than ever. Of course, he also might not get back to the same level as before... But hey, I'm an optimist.

I have never been so confident of someone winning a slam than I am of Novak winning in Australia. With his run since New York, his WTF win over Rafa, and a new coach honeymoon period in full swing, I just think he's got his mojo right now.

I also find it hard to imagine Djokovic not getting at least one slam this year barring injuries. Not unless Nadal and Murray combine to keep him from slam success.

As for Murray I would hate to see this surgery hamper his career just when it seems that he's gotten the slam and Wimbledon monkey off his back. The AO is most likely too soon, it would best for him to put in a strong showing at IW/Miami and be 100% ready to go come Wimbledon as Murdoch says.

Welcome to the forum   Good to see some new blood   , very good article   

As a JMDP fan I want him to push himself a level higher than what he did in 2013 and win a slam if not all 4   

Realistically speaking both 2012 and 2013 have been dull [outside the come back of Federer in 2012 and Rafa in 2013], some kinda spark is missing, Andy winning Wimbledon was plain awesome but he couldn't convert the spark into a fire, similar was JMDP in Wimbledon and Wawrinka in AO and USO.

Some Big underdog performance is missing for quite a while, somebody like a Becker of 17, Rafa/Hewitt of Teens or Federer of 2001/2003 is needed , if we could get a star like that in 2014 that would bring me back into Tennis, otherwise Tennis is getting stale.

I think my "break even" level for each would be:

Djokovic - win two slams
Nadal - win two slams
Murray - win one slam (this depends greatly on his return from injury though. If he is nowhere near in Oz then it will be swiftly downgraded to winning a Masters and making a slam final).
Del Potro - win a Masters or make a slam final
Federer - win a Masters
Ferrer - reach three slam SFs and at least one Masters final
Tsonga - reach a Masters final
Berdych - reach a Masters final
Stan - reach a Masters final
Gasquet - reach a slam SF or two Masters SF

Great article and welcolme

For me, at the Aus. Novak's the biggest favourite since Roger was at Wimbledon 2009. Simply because this event is way too early for Andy - who always takes time to get back to his best, after even minor injuries. Also, I'm not too convinced of Rafa's fitness

Plus of course - it's very much Nole's main event

I can, though, see Andy defending Wimbledon and been in contention for the US Open

Wouldn't be surprised to see an early exit at Aus - hasn't had enough matches

Born Slippy wrote:I think my "break even" level for each would be:

Djokovic - win two slams
Nadal - win two slams
Murray - win one slam (this depends greatly on his return from injury though. If he is nowhere near in Oz then it will be swiftly downgraded to winning a Masters and making a slam final).
Del Potro - win a Masters or make a slam final
Federer - win a Masters
Ferrer - reach three slam SFs and at least one Masters final
Tsonga - reach a Masters final
Berdych - reach a Masters final
Stan - reach a Masters final
Gasquet - reach a slam SF or two Masters SF

Don't think it would be wise to judge Andy's year on what happens at Aus. Last week for instance, it was obvious that he lacked match play hours. Hence, he needs to get these

Be hard to see him not in contention at SW19 - unless of course he's had more injuries

If we were doing a break even for Andy at the Australian Open I would say that would be to reach the quarters considering his physical shape and match rustiness. Season-wise one slam win would be good.

Hi DJB14,   Nice to see a new face. What does your name mean? Is the 14 a reference to the new year?

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "break even"? Wouldn't that just be for players to hold onto what they won this year? Maybe you mean be satisfied and break even career wise? I'll give you my thoughts...

Nadal. The AO (He has been a little unlucky there and one AO title isn't representative of his ability there), the FO (if he didn't win that no way would he "break even" it would be looked upon as a bad year) Wimbledon (For the second best grass player of this era 2 titles doesn't really do him justice and the last two years in particular are not representative of his ability)

Djokovic. The US Open. For one of the best players on hard court he needs another one to at the very least "break even". I know some want to give him the FO but if he won that it would be a spectacular year for him so hardly just breaking even.  

Murray. It would be viewed as disappointing if he didn't hang onto one of his home grass court tournaments so I would give him Queens and a final appearance at the WTF or maybe a win unless that would be considered too spectacular.

Federer. Much as I'd like him to win a slam and I certainly don't count him out at this stage in his career it would be spectacular and not breaking even. As the second best clay player of his era though his clay masters titles are not representative of his ability. So he could have Monte Carlo and Rome.

Ferrer. I really think career wise to break even he should have a big title. I'm tempted to give him the WTF but that would perhaps that would be too spectacular. So not sure about him.

If Andy does defend his Wimbledon title this year, I think that would significantly elevate his historic standing in the game.

Back to back Wimbledon titles is a more notable feat than simply going from being a 2 slam winner to a 3 slam winner.

I believe the only open era players to defend a title there are Laver, Newcombe, Borg, Becker, Sampras and Federer. It would be presigious company if he can manage it!

In a similar vein, if Novak wins in Australia, that will be his 5th title there overall and 4th consecutive. He's already the only player in the open era to win 3 in a row. He would also stand alone with the most wins in the open era. It's not quite at Rafa-at-RG levels but it would historically dominant.

hawkeye wrote:Djokovic...I know some want to give him the FO but if he won that it would be a spectacular year for him so hardly just breaking even.

Some would say it was the Holy Grail...

hawkeye wrote:Murray. It would be viewed as disappointing if he didn't hang onto one of his home grass court tournaments so I would give him Queens and a final appearance at the WTF or maybe a win unless that would be considered too spectacular.

Your ability to throw an insult without actually throwing an insult is incredible!

I actually think that Andy is the best grass court player, in the world right now

Or should I say up to the end of the last season!!

HM Murdoch wrote:
Some would say it was the Holy Grail...

  .....                        

banbrotam wrote:I actually think that Andy is the best grass court player, in the world right now

Or should I say up to the end of the last season!!

That's not what Verdasco says  

hawkeye wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I actually think that Andy is the best grass court player, in the world right now

Or should I say up to the end of the last season!!

That's not what Verdasco says  

I heard Fernando also questions Rafa's chances at Aus, given their 2009 meeting   

For some reason I always get the feeling that Berdych will win a slam sooner or later, big serve / great ball striker. The problem is he needs to avoid Nadal and Djokovic who match up so badly against him.

I do think he is capable of winning a slam though. Along with Djokovic and Nadal, Berdych is the only player to have beaten Federer twice (both wimbledon and US open for good measure) and of course had that win againt Djokovic at wimbledon, not to mention a couple of slam wins against Murray (not to mention a superior H2H against him).

It is easy to forget what a great achievement the above is, the problem is once he beats one or two of the top 3 in slam, he then usually has the third one to beat straight after !! His record against top 4 in slams must be the best of the rest??!!

banbrotam wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I actually think that Andy is the best grass court player, in the world right now

Or should I say up to the end of the last season!!

That's not what Verdasco says  

I heard Fernando also questions Rafa's chances at Aus, given their 2009 meeting   

John Isner thinks Rafa's pretty crap at RG too.

Ha ha! I wonder who Verdasco thinks is the best player in the world on grass and I wonder who Isner thinks is the best player on clay?

I like to consider more than one tournament when throwing terms like that about and if Verdasco win's Wimbledon next year and Isner win's RG I might not be convinced. But some will  

My guess would be Verdasco would say the reigning Wimbledon, Queens and Olympic champion is probably the grass court number 1.

Isner would probably say Djokovic for clay.

Danny_1982 wrote:
Isner would probably say Djokovic for clay.  

This is a public health warning. An incendiary device been ignited on 606v2. The risk of Hawkeye exploding has been upgraded to 'amber'.

slashermcguirk wrote:For some reason I always get the feeling that Berdych will win a slam sooner or later, big serve / great ball striker. The problem is he needs to avoid Nadal and Djokovic who match up so badly against him.

I do think he is capable of winning a slam though. Along with Djokovic and Nadal, Berdych is the only player to have beaten Federer twice (both wimbledon and US open for good measure) and of course had that win againt Djokovic at wimbledon, not to mention a couple of slam wins against Murray (not to mention a superior H2H against him).

It is easy to forget what a great achievement the above is, the problem is once he beats one or two of the top 3 in slam, he then usually has the third one to beat straight after !! His record against top 4 in slams must be the best of the rest??!!

Berdych is 1-1 v. Murray in slams (Beryd's win at RG). Wimbledon would be his best chance in my view but we have to bear in mind the guy didn't win a title at any level last year and hasn't even won a Masters for 8 years. Whilst he has the game, in big matches against the best he generally looks constricted by fear. Of the second tier players I would regard him (and Ferrer) as least likely to win a slam.

^ Berdych is 6-4 v Murray overall. He has only been to one Wimbledon final but beat both Federer and Djokovic to get there and that was back in 2010 when Federer was a reigning Wimbledon champion. Back in the day I thought he would have a good chance at nabbing a slam. Maybe if the stars align he still can but time is running out.

Danny_   Everyone is entitled to make a guess.

Fed had back issues when he lost to Berdych in 2010 though and Djokovic was woeful by his standards that year. Berdych still played well to beat them but then froze in the final. For a player of his gifts to only have 8 singles titles in their career suggests a major mental issue.

Danny_1982 wrote:

banbrotam wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I actually think that Andy is the best grass court player, in the world right now

Or should I say up to the end of the last season!!

That's not what Verdasco says  

I heard Fernando also questions Rafa's chances at Aus, given their 2009 meeting   

John Isner thinks Rafa's pretty crap at RG too.

In that theme Steve Darcis don't even consider Rafa as grass court player   

It's common knowledge Berdy had mental issues earlier in his career. But not quite the same now...after all he did well to come back and beat Djokovic after being a set and 5-2 down last year. He also got to the SF of 5/9 Masters in 2013, and QF in 2 more...thats very consistent across all surfaces. Berdy's been a staple 5-7 ranked player for 3 years now and I'll say it until I'm blue in the face but feel he was cruelly knocked off his stride by the high winds at USO2012...he had been almost unplayable to that point, blowing away Federer in the previous round. Yes, yes, yes it's all about playing the conditions but those were freak conditions and Berdy's game is more tight/precise than Murray's particularly with the high ball toss which meant one of his key weapons and confidence platforms was destroyed.

I still feel his time will come, looking at 2014 well so far he only lost very narrowly to Karlovic at Qatar last week in 2 close TBs...no disgrace losing to a serving machine that created something like 30 aces in 2 sets on a fast HC (that's how quick the surface was last week). One to watch this year IMO - particularly at AO or USO...particularly if the balls are livelier than before as reported.

I don't see Tsonga winning a slam, Delpo has a good chance but rarely strings 7 good matches together. Ferrer will start to fall away IMO, Federer won his last slam in 2012....so I can't see beyond the top 3 TBH....particularly the top 2 who right now are quite some distance above the others. However, who knows...these guys could get knocked out early by someone playing lights out tennis ranked beyond 20...and then that puts the cat amongst the flying rats. Too tough to predict really but I'll go Nadal for 1 slam, Djokovic for 2, then Murray or Berdy for 1.

Danny_1982 wrote:Good summary DJB, I'd agree with most of it. If Rafa and Novak only one 1 slam each I don't think they'd be suicidal, but I see what you mean about them aiming for at least 2.

Only thing I think is a bit harsh is if Murray doesn't win another will his 2 wins have only been because of Rafa's injury and Novak's poor form. You could put any slam win down to the other finalist being 'not on top form' not just Murray, and the bottom line is he beat the world number 1 in both finals. I'm not into this idea of diluting slam wins.

So you've listed what you think the top players need to do... What do you think they will do? What's your predictions for how they'll actually do in the slams this year?

Oh, and welcome.   

The Capybara played Wimbledon but got pumped by Darcis.

Losing to Karlovic as a one-off is acceptable. However, making a habit of it is not. How many times have the big 4 lost to Ivo over the years - once in about 20 matches at a guess? Berdych gets beaten constantly by him.

Berdych only got a set in the US Open 2012 SF because of the wind. Once Murray had got used to it, he outclassed Tomas. Sensational tennis in sets 2 and 3.

As mentioned, Berdych struggles to win tournaments at any level. Until he starts doing that he isn't winning a slam.

Born Slippy, totally disagree. Berdych always makes life difficult for murray. In that US Open match, Berdych had the better of him until the wind picked up more.

I am sure Murray would admit himself that outside of the other top 3, the players he fears most are Berdych and Wawrinka and Ferrer on clay of course. I think Berdych takes Murray out of his comfort zone and when they play in a slam it is 50/50 at best for Murray even on a hard court.

I would tip Murray to beat Berdych at wimbledon but at French, Oz and US open i would probalby slightly favour Berdych, he is just a bad match up.

I also think Berdych has proven to be more impressive than anybody outside top 4 against them in majors, his record suggests that.

I think he is a very under rated player and a superb ball striker

Agree with that slasher, the wind killed off Berdy's attack at USO, it was clear as day.
It destroyed him in sets 2 & 3 and then he started to adapt in the 4th set, Murray only won that very narrowly in the TB so anything could have happened in the 5th. Without wind that day I'd put money on Berdy winning and felt he was a good bet for the title.
Also, Berdy is 6-4 up in the H2H so is hardly outclassed by Murray plus beat him at Cincy on HC in Aug13 in their last meeting.

OK Berdy isn't the best returner in the game so he struggles more against big servers, like Karlovic, than the top 4 do...but that's not as big a deal vs the top 4 themselves who aren't big servers. He's a different beast the past 12 mths in my opinion and is a very dangerous stalking horse this year.

It seems to me that saying the wind was why Berdych lost to Murray at the USO is akin to saying the roof was why Murray lost to Federer at Wimbledon - yes, the conditions favoured one player over another, but you certainly can't isolate conditions as the only reason.

Also to say Berdych was "a good bet for the title" - well, his hard court H2H against the other finalist that tournament is 0-13 so I guess you would have got good odds.

I like Berdych but even if you look at one stage he has been successful on, Davis Cup, he has beaten players ranked below him, but not really stepped up in singles to beat any above him - even on fast indoor court which should suit his game.

slashermcguirk wrote:I also think Berdych has proven to be more impressive than anybody outside top 4 against them in majors, his record suggests that.

Not Del Potro?

I enjoyed the article DJB. Welcome!

I agree with most of your thoughts, except for Federer. Based on his 2013 season, I don't think he needs to reach a slam final to consider 2014 a success. Reaching semis would be a good result, but if he doesn't get another slam title, I would think that just winning any titles, particularly Masters, would be preferable.

actually Yvonne, Berdych does have a better record against top 3 in majors than del potro. Del Potro has never beaten either Djokovic or Murray in a slam and only has one win against Federer and Nadal that i can recall. Berdych in slams has beaten Federer twice (on his two favourite surfaces) and Murray and Djokovic.

I am not saying he is a better player than Del Potro but Berdych has proven the most likely and most succcessful to take out the top 4 in slams. Come to think of it Tsonga has beaten all four of the top 4 in slams. He beat Federer at Wimbledon and French, Nadal in Oz, Murray in Oz and Djokovic in Oz (only thing with Tsonga is his wins over Nadal, Murray and Djoko were years at least 4 years ago).

However I would consider Del Potro and Berdych more consistent players than Tsonga nowadays

I did have it in my mind that Tsonga was the only player to have beaten all 4 at majors, but I couldn't think when he'd beaten Djokovic. Del Potro's back to back wins over Nadal & Federer stand out more to me than Berdych's over Federer & Djokovic as it was SF & F instead of QF & SF, I suppose.
Anyway, apologies for going a little off-topic here.

T-Berd is a funny one.

When he plays Fed or Andy, you can see that he thinks he can beat them and he's often at his belligerent best. His record vs both is pretty decent: 6-11 v Fed, 6-4 v Andy.

Yet when he plays Rafa or Novak, he nearly always wilts. His record against those two is 3-17 v Rafa and 2-15 v Novak. Some of that is of course that they are simply better players. But there are also many occasions where he has them reeling but messes up when it comes to the killer blow.

To win a slam, I think he needs a draw to open up perfectly and only present him with perhaps one of the top guys, preferably Andy, to face.

But he has only won two singles titles in the last two years, both of them 250s. It would be a heck of leap to win a slam!

I do agree HM Murdoch that it would be a big leap for him. It is so hard to believe that that he has only won two 250s in the past couple of years. I cannot get my head around that stat, for a player with such powerful assets in his game its almost unforgivable.

I think the Berdych problem is that although he can take out the very best in a slam on any given or surface, it is the task of backing it up in the next match that is his downfall. This is what stood out with Del Potro in his US open win.

I dont see Berdych in full flow being any way behind Del Potro, they are similar players with great assets in their game and both move very well for their size. The difference is that at US open 2009 Del potro got hot in a semi final and final.....Berdych got hot at Wimbledon 2010 in QF and SF but then ran out of gas for the final. Had Berdych won wimbledon that year he would have accomplished something beyond belief, beating Federer, Djokovic and Nadal in a row!!!

I actually hope Berdych does win a slam in his career. I would also like to see wawrinka win one but I cant see it happening despite his amazing talent and skill.

Slasher, yes, I see Berdych and Del Potro as being about level pegging.

The difference between the two is that, while JMDP is less consistent on a match by match basis, he is capable of hitting a 'force of nature' level where he can blast anyone off court. He has higher peaks but also lower troughs.

I'd say the big problem for both is that the backhand is so much less effective than the forehand (although I think JMDP has a good slice BH). It's an easy weakness for an opponent to go to.

Berdych is now 28, so if he's going to have his moment, he probably needs to grab it soon.

Nadal and Djokovic at their best are better than the rest (So is Federer but at 31 with a bad back it's getting difficult for him to be at his best). They have proved it with not only their consistency but with their positive H2H's with the present top players. The present top players have been around for as long as they have so everyone's standard is what it is. With them around for anyone else to win a slam they need the stars to align to...

1) allow them to get through the rest of the draw without killing themselves in the process (no easy thing for the rest of the field)

2) not have to play either Nadal or Djokovic or Federer (on a rare good day) at their best. That could be because someone else already has beaten them not at their best or they are injured or they play badly for some other reason.

3) handle the pressure of having a rare opportunity to put their name on a slam trophy.

It's not impossible as Del Potro and Murray have proved and there is hope because now it is only two players that are better than the rest. Of course things will change eventually when Nadal and Djokovic age and become more inconsistent like Federer. But that will be too late for todays top players. It could also change if some younger player or players break through and are able to challenge Nadal and Djokovic but that would be of little help to todays top players as it is likely they would challenge them too.

Good point HM, I didnt actually realise that Berdych was 28. I thought he was same age as Novak and Murray. He will definitely need to break through in the next couple of years if he wants to capture a slam (and a masters title !!)

hawkeye wrote:3) handle the pressure of having a rare opportunity to put their name on a slam trophy.

The big one.

Ferrer was poor at RG this year and Berdych was poor at Wimbledon 10. No shame in losing but neither produced their best on the big day.

Federer played an odd match in US09 but you have to give JMDP his due, he turned in a good performance when his big day arrived.

HM Murdoch wrote:

hawkeye wrote:3) handle the pressure of having a rare opportunity to put their name on a slam trophy.

The big one.

Ferrer was poor at RG this year and Berdych was poor at Wimbledon 10. No shame in losing but neither produced their best on the big day.

Federer played an odd match in US09 but you have to give JMDP his due, he turned in a good performance when his big day arrived.

I wouldn't say it was nerves that prevented Ferrer from beating Nadal at RG. Nadal is just too good there (ask Djokovic   ) neither was it nerves that prevented Berdych from winning in 2010. Both just bumped into Nadal who they were very unlikely to beat if he played his best. I don't think they ever got to the point about being nervous about seeing their name on the trophy.

Del Potro got a bit of a break facing Nadal who couldn't serve because of a pulled muscle but credit to him he held his nerve when Federer played that "odd" match.

I can think of at least one player who fell at that last "mental" point though. Roddick at Wimbledon 2009