Just how special are Launchbury/Lawes? Some numbers from the 6N so far

I have been blown away by them this competition. Lineouts, which are their bread and butter, have been rock solid. That's their primary task so only when that is strong can we get excited about anything extra. But what has really been impressive is their presence all over the pitch in open play.

I pulled some data from the 6N stats, comparing L/L to the Irish second row combination Toner/POC (i know he missed the first test but Tuohy put in a good shift so included his). I compare to the Irish 2nd row as i think they have also been really good all 6Ns so far.

Have excluded the match against Italy as England havent played them yet and they are the by far the weakest 6N side.

Carries (in 4 matches so far):
Launchbury - 6, 3, 2, 7
Lawes - 6, 10, 4, 5
combined (m) gained 36, 11,26,29

Toner - 4, 3, 6
POC/Tuohy - 8, 3, 7
combined (m) gained 11, 8, 3

Tackles (in 4 matches so far):
Launchbury - 9, 7,18,5
Lawes - 10, 8, 9,10

Toner - 10, 9,14
POC/Tuohy - 10, 9, 7

What is clear is that both L/L and Toner/POC put in big shifts in defense with an average of about 10 tackles each per match. What is also clear is that L/L get the ball in open/attacking play more often and hence make quite good gains with ball in hand per carry, whereas it appears the Irish pair probably get more of their carries around the ruck hence the smaller gains.

This may seem like a small difference, but i think it's very important. The lungs, fitness and ball handling skills of L/L allows them to perform their dayjob (lineout/scrum), put in a big shift of tackling, and ALSO look for work in open play and make impressive gains per carry with ball in hand.

I genuinely think this has the potential to be a very very special second row combination. Especially with the way England are using them currently.

this is a small part of their job.

I woudl like to see Lineout stats - takes, steals, disrupted - as well as the numbers of rucks and mauls hit.

Does seem a nice partnership though without seeing all the stats. We're starting to see more. The back row obviously with either big 8 are well balance, Care and Farrell working really well, the seeds of something in the centres.

Lawes has always had the potential and is finally reaching it and seems to have got his discipline in order so no surprise for me.

Having been lucky enough to go to Oz last year I was impressed with Parling so if he hadn't been injured it would have been good to see what they do when he's back but Launchbury himself has been class as well and its looking good for them going forward.

Another point is that Lancaster seems just the type of coach to keep this bunch of players grounded and concentrating on the job in hand and not believe the hype that will come their way if they continue like this towards the WC.

Lawes impressed me on the weekend

LT I hear you on the specialist duties.
But Quins stats confirm my view that having these 2, it is like playing with 4 flankers in open play, where England seem to dominate now. And we have not suffered in the line out.
England totally nullified the vaunted Welsh back row by L+L 'outnumbering' them.
We now play 13 man rugby with ball in hand ( with 2 wingers sadly watching from the sides) and soon it will be complet 15 man once we figure a way to engage the wingers.
(ahh sigh...I remember the glory days of Underwoods, Luger, Cohen, Lewsey / Robinson (FB/wings) even Ashton in his prime. it will be 2002 2003 all over again when we get all 15 playing.

They are certainly looking very good. They have alround skills.

Lawes is finally fullfiling his obvious potential due to a more mature attitude on the pitch. Launchbury just reminds me of Richard Hill...quiet, unassuming, no fuss...just gets on with it. He is also a VERY good operator at 6 and i think this is shown in his play...playing like an extra flanker...

But i believe the whole pack are playing with that type of unassuming manner...Robshaw, Wood, Marler all just quietly get on with their job leaving Billy / Ben and Lawes etc to do the more eye catching stuff.

Its also interesting to note...they cant take their position for granted however as with Barrow, Attwood, Kitchener, Slater, Kruis etc all playing very well England have a great selection to choose from.

I've always had reservations about Lawes temperament leading to unfortunate incidents. This 6 Nations he has shown he can control those urges and is proving just how good he can be. I'm impressed and hope it coninues. Geordie, is Barrow developing as you (and me) hoped and how close is he to being a real EPS contender? There's so much depth all over the place those not in the mix right now are going to have to be very good to get a look in.

Barrow has been injured recently, but his performances this season have been seriously impressive...even more so when you consider he's 20.

He certainly wouldnt look out pf place in the Saxons at the moment, but i wouldnt rush him in to the senior EPS.

But the competition for Second Rows spots is quite eye popping when you consider the dirge we had to pick from a few seasons back....

I'm trying to work out your reasoning here, quins, before I actually go ahead and look at the stats.

You excluded Ireland's game against Italy?  Because England haven't played them yet and they are weak?

Did you include England's game against France?  Because Ireland haven't played them yet and they're still in contention?

You say it's based on a record of four games apiece?... but surely it's a record based on four games for England and only three for Ireland?

If that's true - you still went ahead with a comparison?

I'd noticed his absence from the Falcons team list and assumed it must be injury. He's going to be reaching his prime in 5 years time so now's the time for learning his trade and maturing. Just hope SL continues to bring players on through inclusion in EPS as that's the best route to achieving the kind of continuity the Blacks manage to achieve. Always envied their seemingly effortless replacing of guys you thought indispensible.

SL is developing and maturing just as his squad is.

I don't like stats, I prefer to trust my eyes. The English locks are developing well, doing the basics, working hard and showing good ball skill. They need to keep improving though as England have a lot of good options at lock.

You don't need the stats (though interesting sometimes) to see the stand out quality of Launchbury and Lawes.
They both used to and still could play flanker so it is no surprise to see them putting in a high tackle count.
Their partnership has been one of the main reasons for England flourishing this year.

I'd noticed his absence from the Falcons team list and assumed it must be injury. He's going to be reaching his prime in 5 years time so now's the time for learning his trade and maturing. Just hope SL continues to bring players on through inclusion in EPS as that's the best route to achieving the kind of continuity the Blacks manage to achieve. Always envied their seemingly effortless replacing of guys you thought indispensible.

SL is developing and maturing just as his squad is.

I've been very impressed with them this year.I've been delighted with how Irelands second row have operated in this 6N yet I'd swap with the English pair in a heartbeat.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:I've been very impressed with them this year.I've been delighted with how Irelands second row have operated in this 6N yet I'd swap with the English pair in a heartbeat.

We might have less points on our board and more points against us in that scenario.
Never overlook the truth and the truth is that our two hoofers with the wellies on and the pasty look of hungry farmers about them are part of a well honed forward unit that is chugging along ploddingly, and as well as scoring tries (the forwards by themselves without any BOD offloads ) they're helping keep a sheet cleaner than most - all

SecretFly wrote:I'm trying to work out your reasoning here, quins, before I actually go ahead and look at the stats.

You excluded Ireland's game against Italy?  Because England haven't played them yet and they are weak?

Did you include England's game against France?  Because Ireland haven't played them yet and they're still in contention?

You say it's based on a record of four games apiece?... but surely it's a record based on four games for England and only three for Ireland?

If that's true - you still went ahead with a comparison?

once you think about the stats Fly you'll see i'm not making a direct comparison. As i mention, that would first have to focus on lineouts and scrums which are their principal role. i'm highlighting the "extra" that L/L have given England this 6N.

yes i excluded the italy game. happy to include after england play them saturday. i think the irish second row have been great this 6N. the interesting point of the stats for me is the different uses to which L/L are put. POC and Toner carry the ball around the edges of rucks. hard yards, hence their low metres gained. England appears to use L/L as receivers further away from the ruck hence why they make more metres. it's also a mark of Bomber's confidence in their ball handling and all round game. and it's in open play that england have really been impressive this 6N vs what english fans usually expect.

and yes its 4 games for england and 3 for ireland you are correct.

SecretFly wrote:

asoreleftshoulder wrote:I've been very impressed with them this year.I've been delighted with how Irelands second row have operated in this 6N yet I'd swap with the English pair in a heartbeat.

We might have less points on our board and more points against us in that scenario.
Never overlook the truth and the truth is that our two hoofers with the wellies on and the pasty look of hungry farmers about them are part of a well honed forward unit that is chugging along ploddingly, and as well as scoring tries (the forwards by themselves without any BOD offloads ) they're helping keep a sheet cleaner than most....

I acknowledged that when I said I've been delighted with our 2nd row,praising the English pair doesn't mean I'm denigrating PoC and Toner.

GeordieFalcon wrote:But the competition for Second Rows spots is quite eye popping when you consider the dirge we had to pick from a few seasons back....

For Lancaster's first test in charge the second row was Botha and Palmer, with Dowson at no 8.

In fact from that match Hartley and Robshaw were the only players to start in the same positions on Sunday.

Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore. Most entitled to your opinion. I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Too much depends on the opposition and team mates. You made a lot of tackles? Is that because you work hard or is it because your teammates keep coughing up the ball or is because you never contest the rucks and stay in the defensive line or because your teammates keep missing them and you cover? Are those tackles where you've driven someone back, or were you assisting the tackle, or did the guy go 10 yards up field while you hung on?

Way too much depends on the rest of the team and the opposition. It's one of the reasons I don't tend to bother with 'bestest player eva' type threads. Fun if you like that sort of thing but it's basically meaningless.

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Are you suggesting the English combo are all flashy?

i think part of the praise is that Launchbury HASNT been flashy...he's been quiet totally unassuming and doing alot of the unseen dirty work. Likewise whilst lawes does like his big hits...he has also shown a huge amount of maturity this season and is doing all the unglamorous stuff to a high level aswell.

The big test for these and the irish pair will be against SA who can put out a formidable combo.

quinsforever wrote:

SecretFly wrote:I'm trying to work out your reasoning here, quins, before I actually go ahead and look at the stats.

You excluded Ireland's game against Italy?  Because England haven't played them yet and they are weak?

Did you include England's game against France?  Because Ireland haven't played them yet and they're still in contention?

You say it's based on a record of four games apiece?... but surely it's a record based on four games for England and only three for Ireland?

If that's true - you still went ahead with a comparison?

once you think about the stats Fly you'll see i'm not making a direct comparison. As i mention, that would first have to focus on lineouts and scrums which are their principal role. i'm highlighting the "extra" that L/L have given England this 6N.

yes i excluded the italy game. happy to include after england play them saturday. i think the irish second row have been great this 6N. the interesting point of the stats for me is the different uses to which L/L are put. POC and Toner carry the ball around the edges of rucks. hard yards, hence their low metres gained. England appears to use L/L as receivers further away from the ruck hence why they make more metres. it's also a mark of Bomber's confidence in their ball handling and all round game. and it's in open play that england have really been impressive this 6N vs what english fans usually expect.

and yes its 4 games for england and 3 for ireland you are correct.

Erm...

quinsforever wrote:I have been blown away by them this competition. Lineouts, which are their bread and butter, have been rock solid. That's their primary task so only when that is strong can we get excited about anything extra. But what has really been impressive is their presence all over the pitch in open play.

I pulled some data from the 6N stats, comparing L/L to the Irish second row combination Toner/POC (i know he missed the first test but Tuohy put in a good shift so included his). I compare to the Irish 2nd row as i think they have also been really good all 6Ns so far.

Have excluded the match against Italy as England havent played them yet and they are the by far the weakest 6N side.

Carries (in 4 matches so far):
Launchbury - 6, 3, 2, 7
Lawes - 6, 10, 4, 5
combined (m) gained 36, 11,26,29

Toner - 4, 3, 6
POC/Tuohy - 8, 3, 7
combined (m) gained 11, 8, 3

Tackles (in 4 matches so far):
Launchbury - 9, 7,18,5
Lawes - 10, 8, 9,10

Toner - 10, 9,14
POC/Tuohy - 10, 9, 7

What is clear is that both L/L and Toner/POC put in big shifts in defense with an average of about 10 tackles each per match. What is also clear is that L/L get the ball in open/attacking play more often and hence make quite good gains with ball in hand per carry, whereas it appears the Irish pair probably get more of their carries around the ruck hence the smaller gains.

This may seem like a small difference, but i think it's very important. The lungs, fitness and ball handling skills of L/L allows them to perform their dayjob (lineout/scrum), put in a big shift of tackling, and ALSO look for work in open play and make impressive gains per carry with ball in hand.

I genuinely think this has the potential to be a very very special second row combination. Especially with the way England are using them currently.

Yes, you did, porky pie-er!!

HammerofThunor wrote:Too much depends on the opposition and team mates.  You made a lot of tackles? Is that because you work hard or is it because your teammates keep coughing up the ball or is because you never contest the rucks and stay in the defensive line or because your teammates keep missing them and you cover? Are those tackles where you've driven someone back, or were you assisting the tackle, or did the guy go 10 yards up field while you hung on?

Way too much depends on the rest of the team and the opposition. It's one of the reasons I don't tend to bother with 'bestest player eva' type threads. Fun if you like that sort of thing but it's basically meaningless.

maybe you should have gone with your instincts?

this is clearly not a best ever type of thread. the data i painstakingly pulled together illustrates quite how differently and how well, England use the abilities of L/L in open play. doesnt even go into lineouts/scrums. But it does highlight a very clear difference in two key positions between England and the top of the table Ireland.

ASBO

that L/L get the ball more in open play reflects how they are used, not how good they are. so its a comparison of their roles.

I know it's not a best player type thread. That's why I'm posting. I'm just saying it's very difficult to tease out how good specific players are in isolation. You could look at how they compare with the rest of their team in a particular game.

So if they played a game with 30% possession you would expect more tackles than if they played with 70% possession. If they still have double the tackles of the rest of the team it's very high regardless. As LT said, how much ruck work did they do? If they're hitting rucks AND making the tackles is very good.

The biggest problem with all this is that we seem to have hit upon a good pairing at international level, which bother being young players. If the past is anything to go by one or both will now get injured

The biggest problem with all this is that we seem to have hit upon a good pairing at international level, which bother being young players. If the past is anything to go by one or both will now get injured

In which case im actually confident that one of Kitchener, Attwood, Slater, Kruis, Barrow etc could come straight in and fit nicely in to the plan.

GeordieFalcon wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Are you suggesting the English combo are all flashy?

I do a lot of self-knowing (as in I know what I mean) shorthand  I know it's a weakness but there you go, I'm a stream of consciousness writer.  What I mean by 'flashy' is my shorthand for the English guys looking like proper athletes with the muscles all in the right gym places.... looking smooth and professional.  Whereas our two...well I described them already.  Just me doing my thing, Geordie.

I don't think people were suggesting Launchbury and Lawes looked good in the anthem lineups. I think it was more their workrate

SecretFly wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Are you suggesting the English combo are all flashy?

I do a lot of self-knowing (as in I know what I mean) shorthand  I know it's a weakness but there you go, I'm a stream of consciousness writer.  What I mean by 'flashy' is my shorthand for the English guys looking like proper athletes with the muscles all in the right gym places.... looking smooth and professional.  Whereas our two...well I described them already.  Just me doing my thing, Geordie.

Lawes may have a (suitably tasteful) nude centre spread in Cosmo or Attitude magazines, POC would feature in the Farmers Weekly in overalls and a straw hat?

Something I have noticed about Lawes is that now when he tackles he seems to be going lower. He used to go for the all out exocet style to the upper body which is devastating when it hits but at international level he was missing and looking stupid.

Now he just seems to chop people down (like a certain no.6) which is also no mean feat given how far down he has to get.

Glad to see Lancaster and his fellow coaches is working for his money there, lost

SecretFly wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Are you suggesting the English combo are all flashy?

I do a lot of self-knowing (as in I know what I mean) shorthand  I know it's a weakness but there you go, I'm a stream of consciousness writer.  What I mean by 'flashy' is my shorthand for the English guys looking like proper athletes with the muscles all in the right gym places.... looking smooth and professional.  Whereas our two...well I described them already.  Just me doing my thing, Geordie.

Ah i see...and understand...

lostinwales wrote:Something I have noticed about Lawes is that now when he tackles he seems to be going lower. He used to go for the all out exocet style to the upper body which is devastating when it hits but at international level he was missing and looking stupid.

Now he just seems to chop people down (like a certain no.6) which is also no mean feat given how far down he has to get.

This is the increased maturity i was reffering to above. He has taken much of the rashness out of his game, and the result is a far better game. He often missed those big hits and it not only made him look daft, but it opened up huge holes for the opposition to exploit.

Now he mostly makes his tackles effective ones...but still has time for bone shuddering ones...at the right time.

LondonTiger wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Are you suggesting the English combo are all flashy?

I do a lot of self-knowing (as in I know what I mean) shorthand  I know it's a weakness but there you go, I'm a stream of consciousness writer.  What I mean by 'flashy' is my shorthand for the English guys looking like proper athletes with the muscles all in the right gym places.... looking smooth and professional.  Whereas our two...well I described them already.  Just me doing my thing, Geordie.

Lawes may have a (suitably tasteful) nude centre spread in Cosmo or Attitude magazines, POC would feature in the Farmers Weekly in overalls and a straw hat?

Precisely.

Workrate someone said?  Well yes.  That was more my point when I stop the joking around.  Lawes and his mate hve the ground making athleticism and off-loading heart-rates etc etc....... all toned up on carrot juice and secret spices....but the farmers are in the pack that is scoring most tries (on their own) and keeping tries out.  That was I think my point about the centrefold stuff

Though I'll admit it is all getting a might confusing at this stage and I have to keep looking at the heading to work out what topic we're on!

Lawes may have a (suitably tasteful) nude centre spread in Cosmo or Attitude magazines, POC would feature in the Farmers Weekly in overalls and a straw hat?

And how far back would you have to go to make sure you get all of Toner into the shot?

Bet he takes a bit feeding.

well...it all depends on what height the camera man is.

I was standing very close to Toner one day and.............. had a lovely conversation with his elbow.

SecretFly wrote:Oh I'm not saying you're denigrating them, sore.  Most entitled to your opinion.  I was just pointing out the truth that flash'n'power can be nice to look at in a horse...but will he plough a field until the sun goes down?

The English pair are a tasty twosome to be sure - BTW

Ah right fair enough,sorry I took you up wrong.Yeah it's hard to know if and how much they'd improve the Irish team and conversely if the Irish pair would add something to the English team.I think it's fair to say that both combos are doing great work for their respective sides,a sign of good coaching imo where the gameplan is designed around the strength of the players available.

I like stats.

This post is fundamentally flawed for a number reasons not least that I don't trust Opta as it has so much subjectivity in their accreditation of stuff like metres made, tackle success, almost anything on their list really apart from the overtly objective stuff like penalty counts, kick success, tries etc.

Secondly if Opta stats are going to be used as a data basis, ignoring a known set of data on the spurious grounds of a having not played b is a perfect basis of introducing bias. Why are the France v Italy data not equally removed?

Thirdly, another post is currently being debated about 'unseen' work. The first superb point was made by the ever-incisive Mrs P who made the bleedin' obvious point that I summarise as 'unseen work won't get seen by the OPTAmen' and PSW's later comment regarding coaches' comments about 'unseen work' - "Positioning can play a huge part too. Simply by being in a certain position it can draw defenders creating space or push attackers tighter to the player who gets the wonderful tackling stats.
Coaches will often highlight players as excelling for doing things we arent even aware they are doing..."

Of course, it's not just individual bits of positioning that won't get noticed. There'll be a ton of other activities that won't ever get recorded by the stats men.

I agree with the poster above, I like to make my own mind up on the evidence of ny own eyes rather than the pundits or the OPTAmen.

I'll grant this though, an extended series of faux stats will formulate a strong body of circumstantial evidence which can be considered compelling.

But not a cherry picked selection of a few.
Either Include Ireland v Italy or remove England v France, quins...

i prefer it my way. counting anything in a 40+ points difference match is far less relevant than the 6 other ones.

and the stats quoted are accurate, and do back up the "what you see with your eyes" (if you were watching the right places on the park) of L/L being more involved all over the park than any of the more traditional 2nd row combos.

it is completely valid to exclude certain matches, as long as it is disclosed, which it was right at the top.

i will also exclude england's match against italy in fact, now that i think about it, as who really gives a cr1p about the marginal differences of how different second rows perceive their open field role in 1-sided matches.

sometimes portnoy, people can't see the wood for the trees. data needs to be used sensible and appropriately, not obsessively and process-orientedly   

I'm pleased for Lawes. When you look at the young players Martin Johnson slotted into his match day squads, many haven't kicked on for one reason or another.

Ben Youngs and Chris Ashton have been out of form and need to show something special to get back into contention. The Armitage brothers went to France and Ben Foden has been out injured.

the true test of the stats, portnoy, is in their predictive power.

given both england and irelands matches against italy are not informative because neither are close matches (fingers crossed obviously), i will exclude both.

so i predict, solely based on ireland's gameplan and data from their first 3 matches, that POC and Toner will get approx 10 carries between them, and gain approx 10m in total, in their game against France.

that is the real test of whether past stats have any predictive value.

quinsforever wrote:the true test of the stats, portnoy, is in their predictive power.

given both england and irelands matches against italy are not informative because neither are close matches (fingers crossed obviously), i will exclude both.

so i predict, solely based on ireland's gameplan and data from their first 3 matches, that POC and Toner will get approx 10 carries between them, and gain approx 10m in total, in their game against France.

that is the real test of whether past stats have any predictive value.

Spoken like a man of the City, quins.

So to be fair, why don't you present the complete data for all to see and argue your case from there?

Too many politicians and businessmen have given me my fill of self-gratifying, subjective subsets of the data.

will give the complete data after next weekend. but will still exclude Italy for both cause otherwise the stats might be misleading.

will also do the lineout data for the whole competition as that's the main responsibility of 4 and 5.

Waddeva. At least if you provide an alternative complete set of figures and include the Italy games for fair comparison of the overall SNs.

I'm a proponent of excluding Scotland and Italy (based on World rankings) anyway.

But I'd hate to and would not hide behind my personal selectivity to present my case.

When you present your post I'll consider it carefully. I'll even lay off the subjectivity of the published stats and even your declaration that line-out jumping is the main responsibility and therefore (?) the best measure of a lock's performance. No doubt others will question that limited profile anyway.

ultimately good coaches need to build their team strategy around the relative strengths and weaknesses of their players, and the perceived ones of their oppositions, so all the data to some extent already includes those strategic and tactical decisions.

but i still think the data is interesting. and i like doing it anyway. will of course include the full set incl italy games for comparison. but i think we all agree that crunch matches are of more useful statistical value.

Agreed.
But taking a component out of the tournament would be highly selective.

And even subjective stats will be based on a full fifteen games for a reasonable comparison.

I don't think Italy are that much worse than France, to be honest. Ireland's margin against Italy was due to them daring to play in an ambitious style which left Italy knackered at the end (and to be fair Italy rather played along with that, which made for a cracking game but probably added 20 points to their own margin of defeat!)

Put it this way, I'm not confident we'll beat Italy by more than Ireland beat France.