2014 Summer Tours

So no one accuses me of backtracking I have pasted previous weeks comments in the spoilers...

Week 1 prediction:

 

Week 2 prediction:

 
... but here we go for week three, and thoughts now...
 
Argentina v Ireland
Well Argentina gave Ireland a run for their money. I thought the Irish looked a little tired (end of season) which I think is why the Pumas kept close to the Irish. However, the men in green maintained control throughout and didn’t look like losing. So Well done, a first Test win in Argentina and without BOD… maybe, just maybe BOD’s retirement will free the Irish backs and allow them to play to their potential. We all agree BOD was holding them back… don’t we    … Joking aside. Well done Ireland as successful summer tour.
 
• Ireland 100% win
 
 
Australia v France
Don’t know what to say about this weeks test… Were the Wallabies just bad or did France step up a gear. I suppose the only thing I can say is that it was a boring game for the neutral, and that it doesn’t change my prediction.  
 
• France 0% win
 
 
New Zealand v England
Don’t know where to start here either… I said the first week, "I actually think they’ll give the All Blacks a shock" and "I can’t see them winning a test", which I said I would change my mind on. Well I’m changing it again. England have played out of their skins, and as a Welshman, I’m now very worried about next years RWC (and 6N). But I think they’ve had their chance of a test win and I’m reverting to my original prediction of no test wins. However, I think Lancaster will be content that they run the All Blacks so close. I say content, instead of happy, as he cant be happy losing the first test in the last couple of mins and letting the second go by 1 point. Although I think the score flattered England in the second test. Still a good Summer Tour for England.
 
 
• England 0% win
 
 
South Africa v Wales
Can sum it up in one word… SH!T... My prediction holds, I cant see us winning a test, but at least we didn’t pick up the injuries I expected. Gats has to throw caution to the wind now and mix the team up a bit, as the boys that started looked 2nd 3rd rate in comparison to the Boks.
 
• Wales 0% win
 
 
Fiji/Japan/Samoa v Italy
Well with Italy going down to Samoa (15-0) this week (Fiji last (25-14)) my prediction is unchanged. Still reckon the Italians will take 1 test (Japan)
 
• Italy 33% win
 
 
Argentina/Canada/South Africa/USA v Scotland
With Scotland beating Canada (17-19) here again my predictions remain unchanged. Pumas and Boks will prove a bigger challenge. Saying that Scotland have a good recent record against the Pumas, and the Irish will have soften them up by then. So I'll stick to my 3 test win for Scotland.
 
• Scotland 75% win
 
 
 
Therefore my predictions for the tours are, based on test games only:-
 
1st Ireland with 100% win
2nd Scotland with 75% win
3rd Italy with 33% win
4th (Joint) England, France and Wales all failing to win a test game.
 
Anyone want to disagree, debate, challenge with my revised thoughts...

I think Ireland will win both their matches and Italy will win two of theirs (Samoa and Japan). Also think France might win one of their games.

Can't see England or Wales getting very much and think Scotland will lose to South Africa.

A lot will depend on whether Argentina have a similar team to the one that played England last year. If it is, they will lose to Scotland but if they are close to first choice they will beat Scotland and give Ireland a couple of tough games.

Unfortunately I have to agree with you on Wales, I do however (and there no rhyme or reason to it)think England will shock the Blacks in one of the tests.

I have a feeling Wales will lose both games. I have a horrible feeling the first game is going to be an absolute thumping, picking up injuries and really showing up our game plan of trying to be the big boys. However, due to injuries, we will shake up our game plan and play the 'welsh way' in the second game, lose by a missed kick or something equally painful, and then spend the rest of the summer banging on about how magical our players are and how we have rediscovered our attacking flair.

Would not rule England or France picking up a win. Expect Ireland to come home undefeated, Scotland to win all bar SA, and I have a sneaking feeling Italy may be the big surprise either winning all three or losing all three, but nothing inbetween.

On paper Argentina will put up even less resistance against Ireland than they did against England last year. Would be disappointed if Ireland didn't come home with anything less than two convincing wins.

I don't see Wales or England taking a scalp either.

I fancy England to nick one

ScarletSpiderman wrote:I have a feeling Wales will lose both games.  I have a horrible feeling the first game is going to be an absolute thumping, picking up injuries and really showing up our game plan of trying to be the big boys.  However, due to injuries, we will shake up our game plan and play the 'welsh way' in the second game, lose by a missed kick or something equally painful, and then spend the rest of the summer banging on about how magical our players are and how we have rediscovered our attacking flair.

Would not rule England or France picking up a win.  Expect Ireland to come home undefeated, Scotland to win all bar SA, and I have a sneaking feeling Italy may be the big surprise either winning all three or losing all three, but nothing inbetween.

SS,

You're most probably right how when times have we seen and still not learnt from it though

Ireland look the most assured of a positive tour.

Scotland is slightly harder to call. Can't see them beating SA even though they made a good fight of it last time they toured. They'll probably win their other games, though they could lose to Argentina and one of the NA sides might give them a test.

It'd be considered a huge step forward for any of England, France or Wales to come away with even one test win. The odds are understandably against all of them.

Italy could win or lose all their tests for all I know. They probably won't beat a full strength Samoa. Fiji are in a bit of a state and Japan generally seem to be improving.

If Ireland only win one (or lose two!) Schmidt needs to be sacked and we need to call Kidney back and publically apologise to him!  
If Ireland don't set out to use both games against Argentina (given the weaken Argentina version it will be) as "win by how much" then they have no rights to sing about WC hopes.  So I expect Ireland to attempt to continue the momentum and tempo of 6N and to punish Argentina for giving them a 'lesser' side.

Wales are in a fix because not only do they have to win against SA in South Africa, they'll have to attempt to bring a revamped game with them to do it.  Their style has been worked on by opponent coaches and it's not a blueprint that will suddenly force sides to panic again.  That said, Wales are Wales - pride won't be in short supply and neither will 'let's go for broke' openfield skills if they feel too much pressure.  Wales don't lie down and could very well take a game in the final minutes of some SA apathy.

Same for England.  They certainly have punch enough and guile enough and confidence enough and coaching savvy enough to take a game from New Zealand..................and!....................... depending on which game that might be in the sequence, they could even................... steal two!  New Zealand will have to work hard in all three, and complacency at any point within any 80 minute spell could kill them.

Italy could have quite a successful time.  I wouldn't be surprised by 3. Fell apart kinda in 6N but still, if they keep things Northern Hemisherey forward based and blunt, they could do well.

Scotland have a tough one because neither Canada or USA are push overs - as Ireland found out last year (albeit with a virtual A team contingent)  Still, it could get sticky for Scotland with those two if the Scots approach things with too much pre-emptive confidence.  I think they'll take Argentina and USA.  The other two I'm not sure about.

France................. who the hell knows what they'll do, as usual!  Not even going to attempt it.

SecretFly wrote:Scotland have a tough one because neither Canada or USA are push overs - as Ireland found out last year (albeit with a virtual A team contingent)  Still, it could get sticky for Scotland with those two if the Scots approach things with too much pre-emptive confidence.  I think they'll take Argentina and USA.  The other two I'm not sure about.

I would agree with you if SJ was still in charge, but I think a lot of the players will be laying down a marker to the new coach, so I expect to see a high level of intensity and aggression. Also in a bizarre move we are actually playing players in their proper position.

Could it be argued that technically Wales have won one of their tour games already   

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Could it be argued that technically Wales have won one of their tour games already   

We have won one of our TOUR games, but this thread is about the TESTS not the tour games...

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Could it be argued that technically Wales have won one of their tour games already   

Could it be argued that you are a WUM?

Ireland predicted will win again
England will lose again by 15 because alblacks will be a lot better
Wales will have best players injured and lose
Scotland if they playing Canada next will win
France will lose

Ireland will improve and win again more fluidly than last time.
England will play another competitive game but I do think ABs will have a purple patch that seals the deal.  And it might come long before everyone might be expecting it - early first half.
Wales - I think they might be hit bad here.  SA look in a mood to play the game ruthlessly and they're at home doing it.
Scotland - first test of what Cotter can do.  He's had his settle in game against a weak enough team.  Canada are a wee notch up and I had them down for beating Scotland last week, so I'll keep to that prediction.  Tough game for both sides but Canada might steal it.
France will lose - which probably means they'll win!

For the first time I am a bit nervous about Wales touring SA.....maybe I'm wrong but.....

There are so many Bok injuries (Lambie, PSdT, Eben, JdV, Fourie etc) and in key positions and combinations. Morne Steyn is starting and adds little if he misses his kicks. The locks are old and struggle to last the full game and the bench cover is inexperienced. Our front row seems flat and Jannie still doesn't convince me. F Steyn pulling out is a big loss. He brings a lot with his kicking game, physicality and creativity. Our centre pairing is made up of a wing and an inexperienced player opposite probably Wales' strongest positions.

I expect we will have the edge in the loose trio and hope Bismark and Louw can rule the break down.

We will win if Morne nails his kicks. If he has an off day I'm not so sure

MMaaxx wrote:For the first time I am a bit nervous about Wales touring SA.....maybe I'm wrong but.....

There are so many Bok injuries (Lambie, PSdT, Eben, JdV, Fourie etc) and in key positions and combinations. Morne Steyn is starting and adds little if he misses his kicks. The locks are old and struggle to last the full game and the bench cover is inexperienced. Our front row seems flat and Jannie still doesn't convince me. F Steyn pulling out is a big loss. He brings a lot with his kicking game, physicality and creativity. Our centre pairing is made up of a wing and an inexperienced player opposite probably Wales' strongest positions.

I expect we will have the edge in the loose trio and hope Bismark and Louw can rule the break down.

We will win if Morne nails his kicks. If he has an off day I'm not so sure

what nonsense, you say you are worried about almost the entire side but actually, will win if Steyn kicks his goals.

sounds like SA are being devalued pre game to me.

Not at all. What I said makes sense.

Ordinarily I would be chilled expecting a stress free minimum comfortable 10 - 15 point win. This time I think it will be closer, much closer and come down to kicks. I fear that if Steyn has an off day then the Boks could lose.

Tallying my predictions for last week then:

Ireland won but nope, they didn't win the game more fluidly - so Wrong
ABs did have a purple patch that sealed the deal like I promised but not in the first half - Partially Right.
Wales were hit bad - Right
I had Canada down to beat Scotland and I hear reports that they maybe should have done - Wrong though.
I had France down to both win and lose.  So I'm absolutely Spot On in that one.  They lost by 6 points but won the game because they dragged Australia down to their level

Not bad , not great, but delighted by the French/Aussie one!

ScarletSpiderman 5th June wrote:I have a feeling Wales will lose both games.  I have a horrible feeling the first game is going to be an absolute thumping, picking up injuries and really showing up our game plan of trying to be the big boys.  However, due to injuries, we will shake up our game plan and play the 'welsh way' in the second game, lose by a missed kick or something equally painful, and then spend the rest of the summer banging on about how magical our players are and how we have rediscovered our attacking flair.

   bar the injuries I was pretty damn spot on   

Yeah...that's a pretty clear cut Nostradamus style prediction. And even he didn't have the balls to get his names right.... or events.... or dates!! In fact, he was a bloody charlatan, but you ain't.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

ScarletSpiderman 5th June wrote:I have a feeling Wales will lose both games.  I have a horrible feeling the first game is going to be an absolute thumping, picking up injuries and really showing up our game plan of trying to be the big boys.  However, due to injuries, we will shake up our game plan and play the 'welsh way' in the second game, lose by a missed kick or something equally painful, and then spend the rest of the summer banging on about how magical our players are and how we have rediscovered our attacking flair.

   bar the injuries I was pretty damn spot on   

You should have been the world cup octopus or whatever theyre using these days spidey...very good.

To be honest guys it goes to show how pathetically predictable the welsh national side has become over the last five/ten years.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:To be honest guys it goes to show how pathetically predictable the welsh national side has become over the last five/ten years.

SS,

You say pathetically predictable but in that timescale we have still had more success than since the 70s. Look at where we were the back end of the 80s all the 90s (memories of trips to Twickers still haunt me) and the early 00s.

I know what I would prefer.

Bedford, I totally agree that it has been our best period silverware wise. But over that period we have had a cycle of going from boom to bust and back again, and have never really shown too much constancy ('12 GS and '13 6Ns aside).