Doom of 13 and Djokovic to stand tall among ruins

I saw a strange coincidence, 2 people have crossed 13 in slams counts and both those members lost in USO and Australian open finals respectfully  regretfully in different ways before making the record number 14.

Pete Sampras was humiliated by Hewitt in USO finals and Roger Federer was made to cry publicly for the first time in AO  

Joining the ranks Rafael Nadal at 13 playing AO finals as a big favorite against a GS final debut by Stan the man, was handed a shocking defeat raising questions of Nadal's march towards 17.

So here some good news and bad news for Rafa fans, after a struggle at 13, Pete went on to win 1 more elusive slam and called it quits, and that slam came on his home land  before his fans at USO giving a fairy tale finish, in the similar manner Fed got his 14th at much daunted place of French which completed his cv and more or less sealed the GOAT debate in his favor at that time.

Now the question is what is the slam Rafa wants it so bad among the 4?   , I am pretty sure Rafa gonna cross the 13 but will he do it on the place similar to other 2 legends? My answer is yes he will carve another great episode on 14 and that will last in the memories of all Tennis fans. 9th FO undoubtedly will give him the biggest prestige than winning any other slam, and given the sudden resurgence he is well and truly likely to get it to make a history of his own in 14.

Standing on the other side is a guy who wants to add himself into the GOAT debate, and before we all could realize he has already won 6 slams and 1 win away from making a career slam, there is a saying 3rd time lucky, it took Rafa 3 consecutive finals appearance to win the Wimbledon trophy, 2012 and 2013 were so close for Nole will be be 3rd time lucky in 2014?   

Both men fighting for honors, and for the first time in long run I enjoyed a French Open thoroughly and who ever wins is the deserving champion and history in the making, is it 7 or 2x 7 = 14?. I never lived in the center and have been bold enough to cast my views and I am sticking to my earlier stances this FO is for Novak Djokovic , even though I had some heated arguments with Nole fans in the past, if he wins it I will be very happy for him and his fans. Who ever bet on Rafa 100 pounds, I am sorry for your money. 

Novak has been getting closer and closer to Nadal on clay, so the feeling is eventually he will cross the line.

Crossing the line is something Novak has struggled mightily with in the last couple of years though.

I'm not sure that the Novak who can go toe to toe with Nadal for Bo5 without breaking physically or mentally exists anymore.

We'll see.

It's down to the weather. Rafa depends utterly on a high bouncing court so if it's very hot and dry he has a good chance, if it's damp and cool it'll be Djokovic in three sets - much as was seen in that phase of the 2012 final when it was wet and Nadal couldn't win a game.

I don't see it quite as black and white as Bogbrush, but not far off. If the weather is like it was yesterday it is a monumental task for Novak. In those conditions, Rafa has never even looked like losing on that court.

However is is forecasted to be a bit damp and heavy, which would give Novak a great chance. I hope it's Novak as I want him to complete the set.

Reckon Rafa will be a bit too much for Djoko which should help secure his number one position for a little while, as he has no points to defend at Wimbledon.
This is the final most wanted to see, if only for the fact that Djoko is about the one guy likely to give Rafa a decent game on clay.
Rafa seems set to overtake Rog in the GS tally, although he will not want to rely solely on winning the French every year to do it.
Arguments about which is the greater achievement (Rog's or Rafa's) will rage on, no doubt. Rog has won three of the slams at least four times, which is amazing and Rafa will have won the French 9 or 10 times which is, er...amazing. (Steffi Graf won all four slams at least four times which is TRULY amazing)

It was dry in the semifinal last year and Djokovic had the lead going into the fifth set. It helps Nadal but I don't think it is outcome determinative. I have to go with Murdoch, I feel like Novak has been brittle mentally in the last 18 months in big grandslam finals. He has just found ways of failing mentally when really he should have won. The challenge of getting by Nadal in 5 sets on clay is the toughest there is mentally requiring you to fight point after point and to often win the same point 10 times over.

But that's what Djokovic is about, but more. His successes against a Nadal are based around panicking Nadal by the realisation that he will not win by humping those high bouncing balls up and outlasting.

If the conditions are heavy Nadal loses his biggest weapon. If very cool, damp I'd go so far as to say this would be three sets for Djokovic.

What will help Djokovic here despite his faux pas in recent Slam finals is that he has a good run of results against Nadal. I do believe that Djokovic is in Nadal's head. Yes the conditions will play a factor, but I have yet to see Djokovic in recent memory over the last few years struggle against Nadal in hot conditions. I think as long as it isn't breezy that Novak has a real chance here. He will do absolutely everything that Murray didn't yesterday.

I think the pressure is more on Nadal than it is Novak. I can only hope that Novak is 100% fit and firing.

Yep, I agree, when conditions or the court limit the bounce and spin Rafa can put on his forehand, his success against Novak drops right off. That's why there have been a few straight sets defeats recently.

I'm more concerned (probably because I'm overthinking!) about Novak's health. It took him two hours to get to his press conference after the match and I think he sounds rough.

Anyone else think so?


If he's not in a condition to hang in the rallies, he's in trouble.

Hmm. Interesting bit of the interview that Murdoch.

Hopefully he is referring to some kind of virus and hopefully 2 days will be sufficient for it to clear. If the weather forecast is right and it is going to be a bit damp throughout the day, that's when Rafa is most vulnerable and I hope Novak is healthy enough to take advantage.

I don't post often so here's a few of my thoughts.

Novak will have had nearly 2 days to shake off any cold virus if he has one and can rest up. Surely Djokovic is still the post-2011 V2 fitness machine he's been or has something suddenly changed where he now wilts in nothing unusual summer weather? Or was he previously a beneficiary of many of his recent clay finals with Nadal being played under unusually cool and damp conditions. Recent notable examples...

Madrid, 8 May 2011 was 20c, dull & damp with low pressure...the following week was sunny and 27/28c.
Rome, 15 May 2011 was 18c, had been raining hard 12-4pm and again low air pressure...the following week was sunny and high 20s (Rome average for mid-May is 27/28c)
Paris, 10 June 2012 was 18c, cold and damp all fortnight...infact June '12 was one of wettest French June's on record.

But hey that's the way the cookie crumbles...yes we know the weather is important as cold/damp turns clay into a non-clay event, top dressing damps down and the ball skids through lower. But let's face it, Djokovic has actually had a very good slice of weather luck in many of their clay match ups to date. Surely it's time for at least one final being played in warm, dry or sunny conditions? Even average summer conditions would be better than they've often had. Anyway, the weather this Sunday is expected to be damp at times...so Djokovic will be happy with that, but it's also going to be warm at 26/27 so courts will dry quicker and balls will fly more. Will be interesting to see what actually transpires.

Weather aside, a lot will also depend on Nadal's confidence and his form...i.e. how well he hits his FHDTL. If confident he'll step up to the baseline, hit heavy and stay there so he's not hitting loads of mid court balls which have blighted many of his matches vs Djokovic in the past. Sitting deep always kills him vs Djokovic, he knows that but is often helpless to respond when he's been in a period of lower confidence. However, Nadal is now peaking through this clay season so think he'll be able to sustain aggression on Sunday like he did vs Murray yesterday where there weren't actually that many long ralleys. Anything short was attacked quickly which Murray noted and said in pressers:

"That's the toughest match I have played against him. He was hitting extremely hard, extremely heavy, returning well, and was hitting it well on the run. He played a great match, missed hardly any balls. As soon as he was inside the court, he was hitting the ball so close to the line. He played great tennis.

You can go out there with all the tactics in the world, but when he's hitting the ball like that, it's very difficult to hit the ball where you want to. His shot was bouncing incredibly high. It was very difficult to do much with the ball. Then when I did have the opportunity, I wanted to make a winner or make him run too much, trying to hit too close to the lines, and ended up making a lot of mistakes.

I don't really think that's down to coaching decisions, a lot of it comes down to how well he plays."

If Nadal discerns any physical weakness in Djokovic he might seek to use angles and extend ralleys but it's tough to call. It depends on which Nadal turns up and how dry/warm it is. If he's anywhere near yesterday's form and it's dry then I think its very tough for Djokovic because the heavy ball becomes a different beats to control as Murray found.

What is amazing is that Nadal has still only lost one clay match over 5 set format, including all the clay Masters, which is a simply insane stat...think its 70-1. Still, all good things come to an end...maybe this Sunday, maybe not. That's the beauty of tennis.

Good post Lydian, I don't buy that the weather will be the simple answer to this matchup. Nadal is in good form and has looked impressive and if Novak is not totally fit and play his best tennis he won't stand a chance. I think that it comes down Djokovic really and I am not that confident that he will turn in the performance required, but I feel if he hits the high notes long enough he can do it. Murray is not as accomplished player on clay and doesn't go up the line or take the ball as early as Djokovic does. So I don't know how much Murray's comments apply to the Djokovic v. Nadal matchup. For some reason Nadal v. Murray has never been that close while Djoko v. Nadal has always come down to the wire and who is feeling it on that day. I think it is a bit simplistic to simply say Novak has had good luck in finals against Nadal on clay due to weather. Most of the days in the European spring are damp and bit cool you get few very hot and sunny days in the clay court season even in Spain and Italy. And again Nadal had the dry conditions in the semi last year it was about as dry as they come and he really was quite fortunate to walk away with the result. This contest will be decided inside the head and heart of Djokovic, Nadal is more of a constant menace, can Novak deliver that extra bit of poise and form needed for such a test.

bogbrush wrote:But that's what Djokovic is about, but more. His successes against a Nadal are based around panicking Nadal by the realisation that he will not win by humping those high bouncing balls up and outlasting.

If the conditions are heavy Nadal loses his biggest weapon. If very cool, damp I'd go so far as to say this would be three sets for Djokovic.

Except that his recent wins against Nadal on clay have not been grind fests. His wins have been over three sets and are due to technical advantages in the matchup not necessarily who is the fittest. The fact is that Nadal said it himself, Novak's serve is better than Nadal's and his return; this gives Novak the edge. Mentally and physically Nadal has the edge in my mind. Stroke per stroke in the matchup Novak gives Nadal more headaches than vice versa.

Novak and his team took time to study Rafa and workout a strategy to counter him, the same can be said for Rafa over Fed.

I actually agree with BB ,if fit n firing and the conditions are damp n heavy Novak might just run away with it in 3 sets before Rafa could even settle in.

This being a historic grandslam nerves will play a very important role on both camps and I fear it could be 5 sets and a very similar script like 2008 Wimbledon, Champ coming back stronger but eventually thr challanger`s will over powers him for the title.

For those who forgot there are 2 career slams at stake, Rafael Nadal could well become the 1st player in the modern era to lose all Grand Slam finals to Novak Djokovic, if I am Nadal I would be worried about this stat.

I am nervous... best luck for rafa, he will need some luck

@naxroy

So do Nole, Good luck to him too.

Djoko getting more Fed fans for him then he has his own    

Jahu wrote:Djoko getting more Fed fans for him then he has his own    

Not too far from the truth i think. Not just Fed fans either 

Any Fed fan going for Djoko today is scared Nadal will overtake the 17 GS and make Fed irrelevant. That is sad.

Nadal is the original power slugfest 5 meters behind the baseline moonballer innovator and I see nothing original on Djokos game, just a copy of Nadal. So I will stick with the original.

This coming from a Fed fan   

Jahu wrote:Any Fed fan going for Djoko today is scared Nadal will overtake the 17 GS and make Fed irrelevant. That is sad.

Nadal is the original power slugfest 5 meters behind the baseline moonballer innovator and I see nothing original on Djokos game, just a copy of Nadal. So I will stick with the original.

This coming from a Fed fan   

Yes because you lack any ability to discern the fine points of tennis. I mean Djokovic hugs the baseline compared to most players today and hits a much flatter ball and goes up the line more than just about anyone. Where Nadal hits with more spin and stands further back also playing most of his shots cross court. Your last post truly shows that you know very little about what you talk about. Nobody can accuse Novak Djokovic of standing 5 meters behind the baseline as his dominant style of tennis. Anyone who makes that comparison doesn't know much about the sport.

Jahu wrote:Any Fed fan going for Djoko today is scared Nadal will overtake the 17 GS and make Fed irrelevant. That is sad.

Nadal is the original power slugfest 5 meters behind the baseline moonballer innovator and I see nothing original on Djokos game, just a copy of Nadal. So I will stick with the original.

This coming from a Fed fan   

That's just weird. How can rational judgement be affected by preference, assuming the judge is not an idiot run by their emotions?

I judge a damp match goes easy to Djokovic, a warm / dry is levelish and a furnace is for a Nadal. It's all about how high Nadal gets the ball bouncing - it's what his whole career is based on (hence why I maintain in the 90's he'd have struggled to get to the QF at Wimbledon, especially in the era of 16 seeds).

That's just rational thinking.

Socal, come on, its same theme, some variations of course, but same style and logic, wait for the other guy to make an UE.

Both boring as hell.

bb, we all agree on what you say. Not disputing that.

Just that among 2 boring players, I choose the original pusher, not the copy.

Jahu wrote:Socal, come on, its same theme, some variations of course, but same style and logic, wait for the other guy to make an UE.

Both boring as hell.

No it isn't, Nadal's game is predicated on huge spin while Djokovic's game is predicated on going up the lines and taking it early. Neither one is a pusher, Giles Simon is a pusher. The only thing they have in common is that like 99.9 percent of the tour they play from the baseline and both are fast. One hits a pretty flat ball the other hits a heavy ball. One stands close to the baseline the other behinde the baseline. One is left handed the other right handed. One guy hits 90 percent of his shots cross court the other is known for going up the line. Neither is a pusher. You can say that both players are boring that is your opinion but the facts don't equate to one being a copy of the other or that Novak plays the game 5 meters behind the baseline. That is just a nonsensical statement.

Why does Djoko then has 4 fans? People who like baseline sluggfest like Nadal anyway. There is nothing new to the table that Djoko has brought, except defense and crazy body flexibility to reach balls. And his oh please look at me attention crap.

Chill, no one will remember Djoko in 5 years.

Jahu wrote:Why does Djoko then has 4 fans? People who like baseline sluggfest like Nadal anyway. There is nothing new to the table that Djoko has brought, except defense and crazy body flexibility to reach balls. And his oh please look at me attention crap.

Chill, no one will remember Djoko in 5 years.

No one will remember you 5 minutes from now, or actually no one knew you to begin with. Djokovic will retire from the game as one of the greatest to have ever played. He is already the most accomplished of the six slam winners and probably will add to the tally. In short his name is there in the record books as a two time world YE #1 and a player who has been top 3 in the world now for 7 straight years. His rivalry with Nadal is the most hotly contested and one of the greatest rivalries in the history of the sport. The fact remains you can like or dislike him. But he has a huge legacy in the sport and large number of fans. He probably is the greatest Serbian athlete of all time.

Its ok to love serbians, you are more of a Tito pioneer from Yugoslavia ages ago.

World has moved and loving people because if their ethinicity is fine.

Just dont hide it after his quality and greatness.

Jahu wrote:Its ok to love serbians, you are more of a Tito pioneer from Yugoslavia ages ago.

World has moved and loving people because if their ethinicity is fine.

Just dont hide it after his quality and greatness.

You know when you lose an argument that was nonsensical to begin with you don't have to play the race card. I have never been to Serbia and don't like or dislike them more than anyone else. I like Djokovic's game and personality he could be Serbian, Zulu, Mandarin, or Tajik and it wouldn't matter to me. Here is a hint when you get caught making one stupid nonsensical comment it is best not to double down with another.

Djoko is half Montenegro and half Croatian. He is serbian sama as Baltacha was british, rest her soul.

Jahu wrote:Its ok to love serbians, you are more of a Tito pioneer from Yugoslavia ages ago.

World has moved and loving people because if their ethinicity is fine.

Just dont hide it after his quality and greatness.

By the way genius Tito was half Croat and Slovenian ethnically.

No he could not be anyone and you like him. Your love for him is purely ethnic and political. You have been busted boy.

Off to watch the game now.

Jahu wrote:Djoko is half Montenegro and half Croatian. He is serbian sama as Baltacha was british, rest her soul.

All the same to me, I could care less what race he is like I told you. You are the one who seems to be hung up on him being Serbian, I personally don't care. I don't dislike Federer because he is Swiss, a lovely country with delicious chocolates and great lakes.

socal1976 wrote:By the way genius Tito was half Croat and Slovenian ethnically.

Things I learn on a tennis forum.

Yes wikipedia stuff. He was half croat half russian but that was hidden due to relations with USSR. Wrong again Socal.

Go Nadal goooo


Ciao amigo

I do not really care who wins today as long as it is not Rafa.  So, with that:

Nole

Similar to Jahu, I find both of their games somewhat boring. However, it is a slam final, they are far and away the best two players in the world right now, and I tend to be emotionally invested in Rafa's matches, so I am still quite looking forward to it.

summerblues wrote:

socal1976 wrote:By the way genius Tito was half Croat and Slovenian ethnically.

Things I learn on a tennis forum.

It wasn't me who shifted the topic away from tennis and Jahu's lack of knowledge on the subject. He is the one who went down this bizarre pathway of claiming that an American of Iranian descent likes Djokovic because he is a serb. I just found it funny that the Serb he pointed to wasn't a Serb.

Hiw did i point it? You said he was best serbian athlete ever. I told you he is not serbian. Stop spreading FUD.

I am done.

socal1976 wrote:It wasn't me who shifted the topic away from tennis

My comment was not really critical; I kind of like these occasional branch topics that have roots in tennis but meander into odd territory.

2012 final (at least on Sunday) was wet the whole match with constant spitting/drizzle.

[moving to the appropriate thread as it got unlocked again]

Jahu wrote:Any Fed fan going for Djoko today is scared Nadal will overtake the 17 GS and make Fed irrelevant. That is sad.
. 

To be frank thats natural   , I am not a die hard Fed fan like Del Po but yes I do love Fed's game and his legacy and if at all somebody near it I want them to go through all hazards possible before breaking that legacy.   

The main reason I was supporting Djoko is to see how Rafa would react if there would have been a heavy defeat, unfortunately Rafa was just too good for Djoko, and Djoko panicked like Poopie in the mid match.

On the other side I am also happy to see Becker-Nole combination fail, after all Becker is no Lendll and Nole is no Murray.
Nole should rather just stick with Marian Vajda, his coach looked more nervous than Djoko was entire match shows what kinda bonding is there between the two and I want that to continue.

Last not least Congrats Rafa on joining the 14 club, now in my view he is the No.2 in GOAT status ahead of Pete Sampras, may be I will re-open that topic again later when things die down a bit.

invisiblecoolers wrote:now in my view he is the No.2 in GOAT status ahead of Pete Sampras, may be I will re-open that topic again later when things die down a bit.

In my view - if Rafa were to not win anything from now on - he would still be behind Sampras.  They are tied on # of slams but to me the most reasonable tie-break is #1 dominance, and Pete is miles ahead there.

That said, it is obviously very close between them and in reality impossible to pick them apart.

But I think Rafa has more slams in him, which will make it ultimately swing in his direction.

summerblues wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:now in my view he is the No.2 in GOAT status ahead of Pete Sampras, may be I will re-open that topic again later when things die down a bit.

In my view - if Rafa were to not win anything from now on - he would still be behind Sampras.  They are tied on # of slams but to me the most reasonable tie-break is #1 dominance, and Pete is miles ahead there.

That said, it is obviously very close between them and in reality impossible to pick them apart.

But I think Rafa has more slams in him, which will make it ultimately swing in his direction.

I agree and don't agree there SB .  

Rafa has been more dominant than Pete on one given surface, if you ask players which is the toughest challenge

1]Facing Rafa in French Open 7
2]Facing Federer in Wimbledon
3]Facing Sampras in Wimbledon.

Rafa will get 50% of the vote at the least and the other 2 might share 25% each.

Rafa has 6 slams outside clay and still counting and Pete just has 7 slams outside grass, so technically the dominance is still narrowed when you take both players favorite court off.

Rafa has more slams in him which will swing ultimately as the Greatest player of all time in the near future but in my view he is already No.2 in the pecking order, if I am right he has won each slam at the least twice, thats a big one something Pete would die for, lets anyways forget the masters for the moment coz Rafa is miles and miles ahead in domination.

invisiblecoolers wrote:Rafa has 6 slams outside clay and still counting and Pete just has 7 slams outside grass

Rafa only has five outside clay so far.  Also the "and still counting" part is important.  I said I would have Pete ahead of Rafa assuming Rafa does not win anything further.  If he does, he will swing it in his favor - so we maybe do not disagree here so much.

invisiblecoolers wrote:if I am right he has won each slam at the least twice, thats a big one something Pete would die for

Only one AO so far.  Also, this is one thing that I actually do not hold against Pete so much.  He played in an era where it was much more difficult to win across surfaces.  It is hard to tell for sure, but I actually think that because of that, it was probably a little bit more difficult to rack up super high totals then.  In that regard I think both Rafa and Roger have had an advantage against Pete.

Jahu wrote:Any Fed fan going for Djoko today is scared Nadal will overtake the 17 GS and make Fed irrelevant. That is sad.

Nadal is the original power slugfest 5 meters behind the baseline moonballer innovator and I see nothing original on Djokos game, just a copy of Nadal. So I will stick with the original.

This coming from a Fed fan   

Nadull fans are no better, see in 2011 when they hoped Federer would beat Novak in his USO semi final to give Nadull the better chance. We know Nadull fans gloat whenever Federer is not doing well. They are not saints.

I think Nadal became the No.1 GOAT or whatever when he beat Federer at the AO this year. The only player that could have been ahead of him is Federer and I don't think he is anymore.

By the way, as far as the French open goes, I don't think Djokovic has done any better than Federer against Nadal. Especially as Federer had to play Nadal when he was better on clay.

Sampras still the man, but it's gotten close, hasn't it? 6 YE #1s, some about twice the weeks at #1, pistol Pete still has it.

Still think Pete coulda done more on clay had it not been for his condition. He has a Masters, and Major Semi on the surface. So he wasn't a "cow on ice", while Timmy Henman made the last four some way past his peak. I just wonder how much of the lack of success was as much mental, as it was due to the nature of the game at the time