US Open - The men's final

For the first time in almost 10 years, there will be no Djoko, Rafa or Rog in a GS final. We'll have a new winner. Yes, but whom ? (to be ultra grammatical).
Sitting on the fence, it would be easy to make out a good case for either Cilic or Nishikori. Will Cilic serve, or play, as well as he did against Fed? Will Nishikori last the pace after a series of long matches? With this being new ground for both of them, it's difficult to imagine just how they will cope with the pressure of a GS final.
I'm guessing that one of them may play poorly, although from a spectator point of view I'm hoping it's a cracking final. My prediction ? Nishikori in four sets.

I am honestly torn here. I want Nish to win and think he is the better player but he may be running on empty and Cilic's form is probably even better than Nish's current blazing form. Back to back straight set wins against Berdy and Del Po. Both are very aggressive players. Nishikori I think is a bit more well rounded and a better player so I give him the slightest of edges. Especially, as I can't see this match being very physical or lengthy.

Nishikori leads the H2H v Cilic and Chang leads Ivanisevic 5-4. Points towards a Cilic victory then...

I think Nishikori's got this. Ferrer's natural successor against a big server - Daveed normally wins these matches and I think Nishikori will too. I hope he wins it because of the draw he's had. Boring Milos, Wawrinka and Djokovic is no mean feat.

I didn't think Kei would beat Djokovic having had back to back fivers, I was wrong, but I think this is a bridge too far. It hurts me to say, as I genuinely abhor Cilic, but I think the big man has two big advantages.
1 - More in the tank
2 - a less taxing service game. Think Cilic wins a slam, in four.

socal1976 wrote:Back to back straight set wins against Berdy and Del Po.

Do you mean Federer? I guess you do not want to type his name.

Leaning towards Cilic, his serve and FH/BH look very clean. Movement looks good. It may be a long match though.

Might well come down to nerves. If someone starts off nervy and goes behind, then the first set could be the key factor.

Genuinely don't mind who wins.

It's an interesting match up. The big, powerful hitter against the more mobile, smaller player with a wider range of shots.

I don't see Nishikori as a successor to Ferrer, I think he has more cutting edge in his game.

If anything, I see him as more similar to Novak - comfortable on both wings (but better on the backhand), excellent movement and tries to open the court to play off the angles in a similar way. My thought during the SF was that he was out-Novaking Novak!

Interesting that the two finalists were the last two teenagers to win an ATP title - in 2008! Kei would have progressed much faster if he'd not been stricken down by injury that seriously set him back after that 08 triumph when he was barely past his 18th birthday.
The first that most UK fans had heard of Cilic is when he appeared in Henman's last match - a David Cup tie at Wimbledon in 07.

I worry about Nishikori's injuries and possible career impacts in the long-run.

laverfan wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Back to back straight set wins against Berdy and Del Po.

Do you mean Federer? I guess you do not want to type his name.

Whoops you are right. I don't mind saying his name I actually will miss him when he is gone.

HM Murdoch wrote:Genuinely don't mind who wins.

It's an interesting match up. The big, powerful hitter against the more mobile, smaller player with a wider range of shots.

I don't see Nishikori as a successor to Ferrer, I think he has more cutting edge in his game.

If anything, I see him as more similar to Novak - comfortable on both wings (but better on the backhand), excellent movement and tries to open the court to play off the angles in a similar way. My thought during the SF was that he was out-Novaking Novak!

I agree with this all except the last line. He is similar to Novak but I think he is a flatter and more aggressive player with his shot selection. There are some similarities for certain. But Novak hits a heavier and spinnier ball especially off the forehand. And Novak is also a bit more patient in his shot selection where Nish is kind of balls to the wall. That is what I believe caught Novak off guard. It was like watching a boxer puncher against a street brawler. Novak wanted to work some jabs and combinations and Nish from the opening bell of every rally was just throwing hooks and uppercuts and beating Novak to the punch. But I thoroughly agree that Nish is not Ferrer, he has more pop and more reckless abandon in his game.

The one who tore the Fed a new one shall claim his first USO title. Even if Kei is 100% he won't win because Cilic has a more steady game and won't lower his level (which Kei did against Raonic, and 2nd set vs Novak.)

laverfan wrote:I worry about Nishikori's injuries and possible career impacts in the long-run.

He's got Chang now what can feasibly go wrong? The one I worry about is Monfils.. what a chance he would've had to open up his trophy chest!

I am going with Nish in 5 sets.

socal1976 wrote:But Novak hits a heavier and spinnier ball especially off the forehand. And Novak is also a bit more patient in his shot selection where Nish is kind of balls to the wall.

Yes, you're right. I was referring more to the way they open the court than the style of the shot.

I actually think Novak has become too spinny on his forehand. I wish he would flatten it out more often. He often looks in a bit of a no-mans land where the loopier, spinnier forehand is stopping him hitting through the court but the spin itself is not doing huge damage either.

Nishi absolutey red-lined on Saturday but he doesn't usually strike me as being quite so manic. Then again, he probably doesn't have quite so many short balls to feast on as he did in that semi! He really went after them and barely missed. It was great to watch, I love seeing players unleashing when the strike presents itself. Andy did it in the QF too but faded fast. Kei didn't.

Well Murdoch I think he does do damage with the loopy forehand when he pulls it short with angle and gets the opponent off the court. But I do agree with you he tried to play it safe too often in that semi. He hit a decent enough rally ball and was expecting that Nish would do the same thing instead Nish took the first strike over and over again. And for whatever reason they kept going in. I think he plays that way against Novak 10 times he probably loses 7 or 8 times. We saw the second set where he lost it quickly in a flurry of errors and then at the end of the third set they started to all go in again.

That loopy forehand can work well when he goes wide with it but the flatter forehand appears to be have been removed from his repertoire.

I think over the last few months he's become too content to play within comfortable margins. He has such a well balanced game that it's usually an effective tactic, if a little uninspiring.

Occasionally though, he has little flurries where he hits harder and flattens out (on both wings) and he's almost unplayable. Third set of Rome and the Miami final spring to mind. Wimbledon final to a certain extent too.

I wish that approach were not used so sparingly. He's too good a player to be 'safety first' so often.

HM Murdoch wrote:That loopy forehand can work well when he goes wide with it but the flatter forehand appears to be have been removed from his repertoire.

I think over the last few months he's become too content to play within comfortable margins. He has such a well balanced game that it's usually an effective tactic, if a little uninspiring.

Occasionally though, he has little flurries where he hits harder and flattens out (on both wings) and he's almost unplayable. Third set of Rome and the Miami final spring to mind. Wimbledon final to a certain extent too.

I wish that approach were not used so sparingly. He's too good a player to be 'safety first' so often.

Fully agree with this. The problem for Djoko is that he has such good defensive skills that it is a big temptation to just play it safe and let his opponent beat himself. The problem is that part of his whole consistency streak and consistently getting deep into big events is being safe and playing percentage tennis. He has sold groundies, great fitness, and great speed. Most of the time this formula will beat most of the tour when you work in the weapons he has. But the problem he faced against Nish was that a player was more aggressive and didn't give him a chance to get into the rallies. He can play differently and be successful. He has the shots, he can move in comfortably now, and serves very well. I see the Nishi loss as being as much tactical and strategic as it was in execution. The good thing about Novak and his game is that he has malleability and versatility but he failed to utilize it in that match.

Sorry I must have mistaken the Novakless US Open final thread for the Novak Appreciation Society thread.

The Special Juan wrote:Sorry I must have mistaken the Novakless US Open final thread for the Novak Appreciation Society thread.

Yes, I've concluded that Saturday was just a bad dream and Novak is, in fact, in the final.

cable TV installed finally in my house a matter of hours before the final starts

Interesting enough, I always thought Nishikori was a pocket version of Djokovic. His backhand seems to be on another planet offensively though. Maybe on another planet to anyone else on tour. think I read somewhere that he only played three of seven Masters this year, a scary fact given his ranking. Only just pipped Raonic, so I'm not convinced his miles ahead ahead of my most intriguing New Era player.

In terms of rankings and real proven pedigree it's difficult to think of even a recent masters series final as weak as this, let alone a slam.

Ferrer-Janowicz in Paris 2012 maybe?

Excluding Paris Robredo-Stepanek in 2006 in Hamburg?

Celey in 4, he is going to bring his serves [his and Goran's together] and that would go unbroken on most sets.

Kei is very exciting player and I would be equally happy to see him win but Cele looks way too strong and determined at the moment.

yes 3 masters played 1 final and 1 semi I believe, Nishikori's win over Djokovic puts him above Raonic as a current prospect despite what the rankings say. Nishikori's record against top tenners is better.

Henman Bill wrote:yes 3 masters played 1 final and 1 semi I believe, Nishikori's win over Djokovic puts him above Raonic as a current prospect despite what the rankings say. Nishikori's record against top tenners is better.

positive h2h vs Nole
tied with Fed

and thats very impressive.

looking at the slam finals list now
http://espn.go.com/tennis/history

You have to go back to 2005 just to find one without one of the big 4, and Safin-Hewitt was higher calibre players than today, so let's keep going.

First contender for a final as weak or weaker than today would be 2004 French Open Coria-Gaudio. Although Coria was top dog on clay that year and probably higher ranked, so maybe not quite.

Ferrero vs Verkerk FO 2003? Ferrero I assume was ranked higher though, I think he ended up that year in the top 3 by year end.

For lowest ranked player in a slam final, you really do have to keep going back.

Becker-Curren in 85 Wimbledon for one between 2 low calibre players? I mean, Becker was just a kid that came out of nowhere, so for fair comparison with today we need to ignore what he did after.

Wow, lots of interest already in the match with hours to go, will be curious to see how many comments on this thread compared to the Wimbledon final thread, I think a lot of people are really eager for the match. A breath of fresh air and could be really good ..provided one of the players doesn't bottle the occassion.

Want a laugh? Of course you do!

1) Type "Croatian to English translation Google" into google.
2) Copy "Čilić" into the Croat bit
3) Laugh at the translation

You couldn't make it up

Don't make me do the work Juan, just tell me. I think Kei is the better all around player. But Cilic is in the form of a lifetime, so hard to call because we haven't seen something like this in a long time.

"Čilić" translates to "Federer"

The Special Juan wrote:Want a laugh?  Of course you do!

1) Type "Croatian to English translation Google" into google.
2) Copy "Čilić" into the Croat bit
3) Laugh at the translation

they can't stop having fun at google, can they? (once the QF were played I checked Čilić to find some inspiration for a smart way to call him, but it wasn't giving any result, sadly)

However, one could check the translation for "Kei Nishikori". Not Djokovic unfortunately, but - if you accept their "did you mean x?" proposition - "the lump in the system"... But I wouldn't say Kei is a cancer to tennis, rather a cure

The Special Juan wrote:Nishikori leads the H2H v Cilic and Chang leads Ivanisevic 5-4.  Points towards a Cilic victory then...

I think Nishikori's got this.  Ferrer's natural successor against a big server - Daveed normally wins these matches and I think Nishikori will too.  I hope he wins it because of the draw he's had.  Boring Milos, Wawrinka and Djokovic is no mean feat.

This USO all the h2h has been shattered.

Stan was down to robredo 2-6 and he won

kei was down to stan on h2h and he won

Cilic was down on h2h vs berd and Fed and he won

Monfils was down on h2h vs Fed and was so close to a win.

So given that criteria the underdog is winning the tournament so Cilic for the title.

The Special Juan wrote:Want a laugh?  Of course you do!

1) Type "Croatian to English translation Google" into google.
2) Copy "Čilić" into the Croat bit
3) Laugh at the translation

Wow amazing

Really hard to call final. I guess Nishikori is the slight favourite for me, but not by much.

nishikori will win

Cilic without dropping a sweat.

I can't see past the Nish here. I know H2Hs are irrelevant in a one-off as DV2 states above BUT the Nish has beaten Cilic twice this year already.

"Keiiiiiiiiii! Kei baby!! Ooh! Aah! I wanna know-whoa-whoa-oh-oh if you'll win a slam!"

That's the best I could do, sorry. This final just doesn't feel right without a big 4 member.

DirectView2 wrote:Cilic without dropping a sweat.

Nishi without dropping a set!

But seriously, let it be an epic match of an epic level, may the best guy win, and Go Nishi!
(for the google translate enthusiasts, you'll get that one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SezoGW_z9w0 but only for the title celebration!

Go Nishi!!

It's not a huge worry for Nishikori if he loses the first set as he also dropped the opener v boring Milos and Wawrinka. The second will be massive. I reckon we'll see an epic Cilic choke-job at some point but if Nishikori isn't playing well enough to take advantage it won't matter.

Nicely done, Cilic! set 1 in the bag.

This is horrible from Nishikori. Reminiscent of Lisicki in last year's Wimbledon.

Cilic breaks.

Cilic has been taught very well by Ivanisevic to serve. Wow!

Hate to say it but that hold could be the beginning of the end for Nishi.

This is a great display of heavy hitting from Cilic. I wouldn't say he's unplayable here but it's too good for Nishikori, who's been very disappointing.