Predictions for top 5 rankings at the end of 2015

So with 2014 drawing to a close and just one tournament left, what do people think the ranking will be in a year's time ?
Will the young guns rise up even further ? Will the older generations manage to keep up the pace ? Who will be the Weakest Link ?

I think the top 5 at the end of 2015 will end like this:

1/ Novak Djokovic
I think he will win 2 slams and finish year end number 1. Not only that, but I see him having great consistency as always, and picking up many Masters Titles.

2/ Kei Nishikori
I see Nishikori winning 1 Grand Slam and finishing the year number 2, on the condition he can keep fit and avoid injury. If he can manage injuries well, I suspect he will have a breakthrough year, and step his game up a level.

3/ Roger Federer
I see Federer finishing the year world number 3, like 2014 I think he will be consistent and pick up Masters Titles. I think he may win Wimbledon, but I'm not sure; but that would be his best chance.

4/ Marin Cilic
I think Cilic will back up his US Open win with a solid 2015, he has shown on his day he can beat nearly anyone- and he will continue to make progress. I think he may win one slam, but I'm not sure.
In terms of the slam spread, I'm confident Djokovic will win 2, Nishikori will win 1; and I think either Cilic or Federer will pick up the 4th major.

5/ Andy Murray
He's shown good signs at the end of 2014, but his play in matches against the big guns this year has been poor. I think he'll finish outside just outside the top 4, with many finals but not many title wins.

Predictions ?

I take it you are predicting a disastrous season for Rafa then?

1 Djoko 2 Rafa 3 Murray 4 Federer 5 Nishikori.

Leaving out Rafa is just silly - I don't know whether it's becoming some kind of in joke/windup or whether it's expectation management, but like the man himself, you are consistently try to downplay. We thought it was funny when you had Rafa as 8th favourite for the French Open once, but it's just getting boring and predictable now.

Cilic no way - that is bandwagoning - I can see him doing well at the US Open again, or even getting to the semi or final here at the world tour finals or winning a 250 or 2 next year. But there is no way he will rack up points week in week out on clay and slow outdoor hard. He was just in good form at the US Open, but has not suddenly become a better player on one result. I could be wrong, as Rosol and Soderling have shown the way before, but I think he will be out of the top 5 and somewhere in the 6-20 region.

No, sometimes in the past I have predicted Nadal to do badly light heartedly, but this time I am actually being serious.
A few reasons to back up my case, of course you are free to disagree:
1/ He will be 29 next year. Keep in mind he also became a pro a few years earlier than most professionals. So really in terms of context, his 'tennis age' could be even higher than 29. It's not uncommon to see people dropping out of the top 5 once they get close to their 30s.
2/ Injury problems. He has three main ones that have surfaced in the last few years; knee, wrist, and back. I can't see all 3 going away for all of next year. This will further damage his cause.
3/ I think Djokovic will step it up next year and beat Nadal when he plays him. Nadal needs to be full of confidence to beat Djokovic, and I don't see it happening.

Your Cilic point was an interesting one.
I think next year his game will start to click. This year he lost to Djokovic in 4 sets in the French Open, and then Djokovic in 5 sets in Wimbledon. There were already signs he was going to be tough to beat. And then he won US.

It will take some time for him to adjust from being a Grand Slam champion, but I think he will do progress well.

Year end rankings
----------------
1]Rafa Nadal
2]N Djokovic
3]M Cilic
4]A Murray
5]kei Nishikori
6]Stan the Man
7]Del Potro
8]Dimitrov
9]Daveed Ferrer
10]Roger Federer
11]Nick Krygious
12]JW Tsonga
13]T Berdych
14]E Gulbis
15]J Isner
16]R Bautista Agut
17]T Robredo
18]S Giles
19]R Gasquet
20]F Lopez

It Must Be Love wrote:Your Cilic point was an interesting one.
I think next year his game will start to click. This year he lost to Djokovic in 4 sets in the French Open, and then Djokovic in 5 sets in Wimbledon. There were already signs he was going to be tough to beat. And then he won US.

It will take some time for him to adjust from being a Grand Slam champion, but I think he will do progress well.

He could do an Andy Murray and win Wim 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/tennis/29884997

1. Nadal - I see him getting within 1 of the slam record next year. At his best, he is still the man to beat in the slams.

2. Novak - dominant again in the smaller events but with only one slam.

3. Murray

4. Nishikori

5. Federer

Born Slippy wrote:1. Nadal - I see him getting within 1 of the slam record next year. At his best, he is still the man to beat in the slams.

Perhaps so, but the more pertinent question is whether he will be at his best, at this age and with his injury problems.

Born Slippy wrote:2. Novak - dominant again in the smaller events but with only one slam.

3. Murray

4. Nishikori

5. Federer

A bit like Nadal, Kei's year could depend on his injuries. Murray I think is a bit of a question mark, he could stay at 2014 level or improve to 2012/2013 level.
Federer I think will still have a good year, his game has looked sharp, and credit to him he's shown he can deliver even at this age.

Surely we have to start seeing new faces at the top? I say:

1. Nole
2. Rafa
3. Nishi
4. Andy
5. Roger

Rafa
Djoko
Fed
Andy
Dimi

I think it's right to be cautious about Rafa, but even if he only does well on the dirt - he still has enough to be in the Top 4

It is still difficult to look outside the Fab 4. Murray's shown that you can have a terrible year and yet be only just ranked outside it. Other than Kei (who will also struggle physically) I see nothing to suggest that any of the others have the mental savvy to compete week after week to get the points needed for the Top 5

Basically, if a player doesn't get to a slam final and the quarters of all four - they've an awful lot to points to find elsewhere

So for me it's

Novak - Will be the clear No.1 and I think will win at least two slams
Murray - Quite simply he's been allowed to get his mental strength and confidence back because the contenders are simply not as good (with the possible exception of Kei)
Nadal - Only here, because I'm not confident he will play much away from clay before Wimby
Roger - No logical reason why things will change
Kei - He now seems to be consistent in reaching his seeded place in all events. Could be higher

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. ?

The big four will be the big four again next year. I'm putting Djkoko numero uno as he's the one most likely to be persistently good throughout the season.
  Rafa, I'm sure, will be back in force. Not expecting Fed to have such a good season as in 2014 but he should still be good enough for a top four place, along with Murray.
 Andy, I think, will do better in the big tournaments than this year. He could end up winning fewer matches than in 2014 but finishing higher in the rankings by sweeping up the large-points events.
  As to 5th place, it's anyone's guess. Stan faces a tumble down the rankings after the A0 2015 while it remains to be seen as to which of the younger guns - Cilic, Nishikori, Dimitrov - can do well. Then, of course, there is Berdych, who, whether you like him or not, is remarkably consistent.

summerblues wrote:Surely we have to start seeing new faces at the top?  I say:

1. Nole
2. Rafa
3. Nishi
4. Andy
5. Roger

Apart from Nishi that isn't really new faces... hmmm let's see. I think the young guns will do better than people think.

I agree with most of the posters, that barring massive injury problems the usual Big Four will be in the top 5.

Of course, Federer might decide to retire, Nole might want to concentrate on fatherhood a bit more, and Rafa might have retirement forced upon him as he sustains yet another injury.

Nishi has the game to be there in the top 5, and it would be great if he was, but he does give the appearance of being slightly weaker physically than a lot of other players.

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Federer
5. Dimitrov

I would hazard a guess it would look something like this:

1) Djokovic
2) Nadal
3) Federer
4) Murray
5) Raonic

Unless something really unexpected happens my guess is that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic will remain in the top positions. Fourth and fifth position could be taken by any number of players. At the moment the top three have separated themselves from the pack and there is barely 1,000 points between the 4th and 10th ranked players. None has demonstrated the sort of consistency and resilience of the top three.

I reckon Nadal is more likely to win a slam than end the year at number one same goes for Federer. With Nadal it's because of his fragile body with Federer it's because of his age. Neither player needs to chase points to prove anything.

Born Slippy wrote:1. Nadal - I see him getting within 1 of the slam record next year. At his best, he is still the man to beat in the slams.

2. Novak - dominant again in the smaller events but with only one slam.

3. Murray

4. Nishikori

5. Federer

OK moving swiftly on from debates about champagne companies;

Born Slippy do you still think after what you saw on Sunday that Murray will finish above Nishikori in next year's rankings ?

I didn't see the match on Sunday. By all accounts Andy was perplexingly poor.

I still think though that Andy's likely to be a lot more like his normal self next year and, great talent though I think Kei is, I am unsure he has the physical toughness to play his best for the whole season.

Born Slippy wrote:I didn't see the match on Sunday. By all accounts Andy was perplexingly poor.

I still think though that Andy's likely to be a lot more like his normal self next year and, great talent though I think Kei is, I am unsure he has the physical toughness to play his best for the whole season.

I will agree that physical toughness is key for Nishikori.

But bear in mind Kei is just 23 now, and already on the verge of entering the top 4. In the next few years I can see that improving further. Murray meanwhile is 27, and I think going to start declining soon.

We should really dig up LK's old thread about the rankings this year, see how we all did.

Kei will be 25 soon Amri. He's born in 1989. He's only a year younger than delpo and cilic.

Any news on Delpo returning for AO?

Him and Soderling, 2 of the guys I pinned my hopes on to kick ass, not good.

LuvSports! wrote:Kei will be 25 soon Amri. He's born in 1989. He's only a year younger than delpo and cilic.

Yes, you're right.
I still think his best years are ahead of him.

Nishikori won deservedly on Sunday as he was by far the better player on the day. However had he been playing Djokovic, Federer or the Wawrinka of yesterday he could easily have lost the first set to love or one as his serving was so poor. Murray did not take advantage and Nishikori relaxed into the game (serving still not great) and dominated.

Think at this time Nikishori is getting better and if he can keep himself fit has a good chance of being in the top 4 at the end of next year. A lot may depend on whether Murray can get back closer to where he was. His serving is a huge issue. He loses it far too often to be a current top 4 player and is often having to rely on breaking his opponents serve numerous times to win sets. If his opponent is serving well or his return game is not at the top level then he loses. Don't know how he fixes this but if he does not then getting back into the top 4 is going to be very difficult.

Jahu wrote:Any news on Delpo returning for AO?

Him and Soderling, 2 of the guys I pinned my hopes on to kick ass, not good.

Del Potro should be back, no Soderling though.

It Must Be Love wrote:

Jahu wrote:Any news on Delpo returning for AO?

Him and Soderling, 2 of the guys I pinned my hopes on to kick ass, not good.

Del Potro should be back, no Soderling though.

As a Nadal fan, would you be really worried by JMDP's return, or not very worried at all?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

Jahu wrote:Any news on Delpo returning for AO?

Him and Soderling, 2 of the guys I pinned my hopes on to kick ass, not good.

Del Potro should be back, no Soderling though.

As a Nadal fan, would you be really worried by JMDP's return, or not very worried at all?

If he comes back to his best, considering Nadal is declining, that is big trouble for Nadal.

As a Nadal fan? No. One loss in five years. I'd sooner fear the resurgence of Nikolay Davydenko. As a tennis fan. I hope he comes good, the lovable oaf.

1. Novak
2. Federer
3. Nadal
4. JMDP
5. Stan
(then Murray, Nish, Berdych, Ferrer, Dimi).

Top three to be extremely close together in points. Feds gets his #1 ranking either immediately after the AO or RG, but doesn't hang onto it for long. Kei starts very well but his season is blighted by injury, so he struggles for consistency.

Slam winners - AO: Federer, RG: Novak, W: Rafa, USO: Delpo.

Goffin and Robredo to make their way into the 8-12 ranking region by year-end.

Delpo to comeback and win a Slam?? That is bold

I think the slam count will look something like this:

Aus Open- Djokovic
French Open- Djokovic
Wimbledon- Federer/Cilic
US Open- Nishikori

I predict the finals will look something like this:

AO- Djokovic vs Federer
FO- Djokovic vs Nishikori
Wimbledon- Federer/Cilic vs Djokovic
US Open- Nishikori vs Del Potro

I was bold last year LK, got to do it again this time

sirfredperry wrote:1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. ?

The big four will be the big four again next year. I'm putting Djkoko numero uno as he's the one most likely to be persistently good throughout the season.
 

I don't understand why Brits talk about the Big Four as if Murray can walk in the shoes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.

Federer - 17 Slam titles

Nadal - 14 Slam titles

Djokovic - 7 Slam titles and climbing

Murray's name doesn't belong in that company. Outside of Britain, tennis fans talk about a Big Three, and group Murray with the likes of Wawrinka and Cilic - players who will win one or two Slams, maybe a third, if lucky, and that's about it.

shivfan wrote:
I don't understand why Brits talk about the Big Four as if Murray can walk in the shoes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.  

Federer - 17 Slam titles

Nadal - 14 Slam titles

Djokovic - 7 Slam titles and climbing

SF, if you have Djokovic as 7 slam titles 'and climbing'- perhaps you should also have Federer as 17 slam titles 'and climbing'

shivfan wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. ?

The big four will be the big four again next year. I'm putting Djkoko numero uno as he's the one most likely to be persistently good throughout the season.
 

I don't understand why Brits talk about the Big Four as if Murray can walk in the shoes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.  

Federer - 17 Slam titles

Nadal - 14 Slam titles

Djokovic - 7 Slam titles and climbing

Murray's name doesn't belong in that company.  Outside of Britain, tennis fans talk about a Big Three, and group Murray with the likes of Wawrinka and Cilic - players who will win one or two Slams, maybe a third, if lucky, and that's about it.

Yeah because we will all look back say wow what a rivalry Murray/Cillic/Wawrinka was

legendkillarV2 wrote:

shivfan wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. ?

The big four will be the big four again next year. I'm putting Djkoko numero uno as he's the one most likely to be persistently good throughout the season.
 

I don't understand why Brits talk about the Big Four as if Murray can walk in the shoes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.  

Federer - 17 Slam titles

Nadal - 14 Slam titles

Djokovic - 7 Slam titles and climbing

Murray's name doesn't belong in that company.  Outside of Britain, tennis fans talk about a Big Three, and group Murray with the likes of Wawrinka and Cilic - players who will win one or two Slams, maybe a third, if lucky, and that's about it.

Yeah because we will all look back say wow what a rivalry Murray/Cillic/Wawrinka was

Well, to support Shivfan's point of view, what do we think now of Courier? Himself and with his peers? Or maybe Kafelnikov or Brugera or? (I'd need to check back names to think beyond Agassi and Sampras...) Similarly, what will be remembered of Safin and Hewitt in a decade?

Of course in the last 8 years or so, Masters titles and slam semis are basically the same 4 guys. And while Murray kept a nice rivalry with the other 3, he's still one step below them (although still a step above the Waw/Cilic. That's where we need a fit Del Potro! I feel Murray and Del Potro are of the same league - both very good, able to destroy the big 3 without being really an upset, and with great success - greater for murray of course - but without reaching #1 - it really misses in Murray's resume)

(ps: when the big miss in your resume is just the #1 spot, you've got a nice resume! )

biugo wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

shivfan wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Federer
4. Murray
5. ?

The big four will be the big four again next year. I'm putting Djkoko numero uno as he's the one most likely to be persistently good throughout the season.
 

I don't understand why Brits talk about the Big Four as if Murray can walk in the shoes of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.  

Federer - 17 Slam titles

Nadal - 14 Slam titles

Djokovic - 7 Slam titles and climbing

Murray's name doesn't belong in that company.  Outside of Britain, tennis fans talk about a Big Three, and group Murray with the likes of Wawrinka and Cilic - players who will win one or two Slams, maybe a third, if lucky, and that's about it.

Yeah because we will all look back say wow what a rivalry Murray/Cillic/Wawrinka was

Well, to support Shivfan's point of view, what do we think now of Courier? Himself and with his peers? Or maybe Kafelnikov or Brugera or? (I'd need to check back names to think beyond Agassi and Sampras...) Similarly, what will be remembered of Safin and Hewitt in a decade?

Of course in the last 8 years or so, Masters titles and slam semis are basically the same 4 guys. And while Murray kept a nice rivalry with the other 3, he's still one step below them (although still a step above the Waw/Cilic. That's where we need a fit Del Potro! I feel Murray and Del Potro are of the same league - both very good, able to destroy the big 3 without being really an upset, and with great success - greater for murray of course - but without reaching #1 - it really misses in Murray's resume)

(ps: when the big miss in your resume is just the #1 spot, you've got a nice resume! )

Again it's confusing achievement with the rivalries. Courier and Kafelnikov whilst had consistent results, they rarely played Agassi or Sampras (bar Courier playing Sampras 20 times)

The permutations of Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray have played over 20 times!!

You would be hard pushed to find something similar in rivalries!

Yes the big 4 is an overstatement, but let's not kid ourselves how compelling the rivalry has been.

Indeed the rivalry inludes the 4 of them (especially when comparing to the time Davydenko was the 4th usual semi-finalist, not much a rivlary then).
Overall it's just nitpicking really (from me), because in my eyes the first 3 are so big and the Fedal rivalry is so huge too (nevermind the unbalanced H2H, this rivalry is far beyond the mere H2H - not unlike a teamsports rivalry eg Real Madrid / FCB, we know the rivalry more than particular stats). So it's hard for me to look past it - but Murray deserves love of course (it's just not from me )

But back on topic, I'll try a prediction for 2015
1. Federer (let's be a bit bold here - for me it's either top 3 with a solid back, or #6 again if he feels as old as in 2013)
2. Nadal (if his treatment is a success, otherwise I'd see lose RG and be as low as #5, which would suck, so rather #4)
3. Djoko (whatever happens, I can't see him below - already hard to imagine him not #1, let alone #2)
For the top 3 at least, I imagine this AO2015 a major step, ie: one of the top 3 to not make it to QF (and sadly see an unlucky Djoko there)
4. Rooting for Nishi to progress!
5. Murray - tough to put him there... Murray's 2015 could be to '14 what Fed's '14 has been to '13... (So as well as I unlike it, it would be sweet to have Murray #1)

Alright, so I'm made the list saying black and white at the same time - I should be well covered! Let's add black horses for good measure: Waw and Cilic (what are the news for JMDP???), Kyrgios continuing up, and Andrej Rublev to upset a seed (at least) in a slam...  

Hmm, predictions for this year:

- no one got all 5 players who made the top 5 - most people got 4, missing Stan;

- Silver (RIP) was the only person to have Stan top 5 but left out Murray;

- Kei was generally the 5th pick ahead of Stan;

- I would say Banbro gets the prize for the closest - 4 correct picks, with the top 2 in the right positions.

Very interesting to see who predicted what. The spot-on predictions included Rafa not having a particularly good season and Cilic dropping away. There was some talk of Murray doing better but his improvement was generally underestimated. Most were fairly accurate about Fed and Djoko, although no one could have thought Nole would be so dominant.