Englands Group at RWC 2015

I know its 1 year out still, but there must be some concerns England may not even get out of the group. Real tough one  

Australia  England Wales  Fiji Uruguay

straight 3 way fight

South Africa Samoa Scotland Japan USA

realistically Samoa could scrape through and even possibly japan, but unlikely

New Zealand Argentina Tonga Georgia Namibia

Cant see past NZ and Argentina myself

France Ireland Italy Canada Romania

Italy could squeeze in but also a bit unlikely

Some concern yes,but not as much as wales will be feeling.

Australia will definitely fancy their chances against Wales at twickenham.

The concerns were there as soon as the groups were announced in December 2012.

Since then, we've only played Australia once, beating them at Twickenham. Meanwhile, we've played Wales home and away and shared the spoils. Wales and Australia have played twice at Cardiff, with the Wallabies winning both.

There are only two more head-to-heads left (England vs Australia and Wales vs England)

Other than that, all three teams play Ireland and France before the World Cup so that might be another benchmark.

The 2015 Six Nations should be quite a tournament.

I'd say Samoa have a better chance than you suggest, they look a completely different side when they finally get their full squad together for a bit of time.  It'll pretty much be the result of their head to head with Scotland, which is the last round of the pool.  Samoa won their match up 27-17 in SA last summer, and the 2 previous relatively recent results were very close affairs, 16-17 & 19-16.  Tough to pick a winner next year, but most of the bookmakers are currently giving it to Samoa.  Scotland play SA in the round before, which depending on the toll could be a plus or a minus, whereas Samoa will probably have rotated/rested their squad a bit facing Japan.

As much as the Welsh management and players try and play down the psychological side of things and say previous games don't mean anything when it comes to the WC but sorry it mut play on their minds. Time and time again we have been in winning positions only to lose out in the end.

I still think that Wales, England and Australia will all beat each other and for me the home advantage will put added pressure on England and I am glad none of our games against these 2 are in cardiff.

Gatland warned Australia that Wales would be a 'different beast' come the WC pools.

And yes, maybe he's already working on his next big surprise - afterall, they were the star surprise packet of the last world cup.  Maybe he's working on his plans in secret and giving the world his old model Wales up until he unwraps his new model.

But had I been Cheika I'd have outlined the truth that Gatland has been in position now for quite a time - every coach has a limited supply of surprise left when they've been in the job so long.  If I were Cheika, I'd have reminded Gatland that he (Cheika) is the genuine 'different beast' in the equation of the three (Eng/Aus/Wales), that he's only getting to know his squad, that he's one of the toughest task-masters and that the scope for surprise is with him.

gelodge wrote:I'd say Samoa have a better chance than you suggest, they look a completely different side when they finally get their full squad together for a bit of time.  It'll pretty much be the result of their head to head with Scotland, which is the last round of the pool.  Samoa won their match up 27-17 in SA last summer, and the 2 previous relatively recent results were very close affairs, 16-17 & 19-16.  Tough to pick a winner next year, but most of the bookmakers are currently giving it to Samoa.  Scotland play SA in the round before, which depending on the toll could be a plus or a minus, whereas Samoa will probably have rotated/rested their squad a bit facing Japan.

actually you are right, Samoa are ranked above Argentina in irb rankings , from nov 3rd 2014.

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.15
2(2) SOUTH AFRICA 90.41
3(3) ENGLAND 85.68
4(4) AUSTRALIA 84.53
5(5) IRELAND 83.44
6(6) WALES 80.70
7(7) FRANCE 80.01
8(8) SCOTLAND 77.75
9(9) SAMOA 76.35
10(10) ARGENTINA 75.97
11(11 JAPAN 75.63
12(12) FIJI 74.58
13(13) TONGA 72.83
14(14) ITALY 70.92

What could well happen in the England/Wales/oz pool is that they all win one and lose one against each other. Racking up a big score against Uruguay will be important for them all in terms of points difference I would think.

gelodge wrote:I'd say Samoa have a better chance than you suggest, they look a completely different side when they finally get their full squad together for a bit of time.  It'll pretty much be the result of their head to head with Scotland, which is the last round of the pool.  Samoa won their match up 27-17 in SA last summer, and the 2 previous relatively recent results were very close affairs, 16-17 & 19-16.  Tough to pick a winner next year, but most of the bookmakers are currently giving it to Samoa.  Scotland play SA in the round before, which depending on the toll could be a plus or a minus, whereas Samoa will probably have rotated/rested their squad a bit facing Japan.

Indeed. Getting out of the group is by no means certain for Scotland. That last match will be very tough. do Scotland throw the game agaisnt SA ( as we did against NZ one infamous day) so we have the best chance of beating Samoa?

Bathman_in_London wrote:What could well happen in the England/Wales/oz pool is that they all win one and lose one against each other. Racking up a big score against Uruguay will be important for them all in terms of points difference I would think.

And for that reason alone, Uruguay shouldn't even get into the WC on meritocratic grounds.  There is no place for points accumulator sides at the WC.  It unbalances the Pools.

New Zealand are in the Pool of Death I see. [Argentina, Tonga, Georgia, Namibia]  And rightfully so! No side - even the ABs - should be given a procession ride to the play-offs. So deligted to see the ABs having to sweat.

Personally I think England have worked out how to play vs the current Wales team and tactics now. I dont think Wales will beat England at the WC unless they modify tactics and/or players. I dont think the margin is that great at all, but I do think there is one.

Bathman_in_London wrote:What could well happen in the England/Wales/oz pool is that they all win one and lose one against each other. Racking up a big score against Uruguay will be important for them all in terms of points difference I would think.

Bathman,

I have said a few times now that I think the big 3 will beat each other which then will mean the Fiji and Uruguay games have more importance and we all know our (Wales) record against Fiji and the like in World Cups