The Pro12 Top 4 - Who Will Miss Out?

With 5 games remaining and the 6 Nations now at a end I thought I would take a look at who is really in contention for the play off spots. Here are the top 5 teams with their fixture list. No disrespect meant to Connacht who have done brilliantly to be 6th currently but with a 8 point gap and some tough games to come I didnt include them on this run down for the last 4 spots. Here are the teams and fixtrues:-


Glasgow (1st) 57 Points
1 Leinster (Away)
2 Blues (Home)
3 Connacht (Away)
4 Ospreys (Away)
5 Ulster (Home)


Ulster (2nd) 53 Points
1 Blues (Home)
2 Connacht (Away)
3 Leinster (Home)
4 Munster (Home)
5 Glasgow (Away)


Munster (3rd) 53 Points
1 Connacht (Home)
2 Edinburgh (Away)
3 Treviso (Home)
4 Ulster (Away)
5 Dragons (Home)

Ospreys (4th) 51 Points
1 Zebre (Home)
2 Treviso (Away)
3 Blues (Away, Neutral Venue)
4 Glasgow (Home)
5 Connacht (Away)


Leinster (5th) 49 Points
1 Glasgow (Home)
2 Dragons (Away)
3 Ulster (Away)
4 Treviso (Home)
5 Edinburgh (Away)


So looking at that bunch of fixtures and the current point standing my view is that Leinster could be in trouble. Ospreys in 4th have 2 italian teams followed by the Blues at the MS which is hardly home advantage for the Blues. I think the Ospreys based on their fixtures should see them into the top 4. Think that Leinster/Glasgow game looks huge now because Leinster simply cannot afford to lose that game while Glasgow still have a 8 point buffer on Leinster with some home games as well so would expect them to maintain at least 2 wins from 5. So in order for Leinster to overtake them Leinster would need to win 5 from 5 which with 3 away games is a monumental ask. Can they catch Ulster or Munster? I'm not sure. What do you think?

In terms of remaining fixtures Munster and Ospreys are in the best nick, can see both winning 4 or 5

But Ulster have it in their hands with home games against two of the top five and think they will squeak a home semi and then win overall given the home advantage in the final.

Between Leinster and Glasgow to make up the 4th, Leinster's undoing could well be their ongoing European involvement. Think they will prioritise Bath in two weeks over Glasgow this week and if they get through that likewise will field a weakened team away to Dragons and may be left resting folks for Ulster in the week following the european semi.

But star gazing over Leinster fielding weakened teams aside, final standings something like:
Munster 71 points (4 wins, 3 bpts)
Ulster 70 points (4 wins, 2 bpts)
Ospreys 69 points (4 wins, 2 bpts - think Connacht will be stumbling block as they fight for 6th place)
Glasgow 68 points (2 wins, 3 bpts - again think Connacht will have a big say)
Leinster 66 points (4 wins, 1 bpt)

Big chunk of wishful thinking there TF, for Connacht to be still in the mix for 6th place by the time they play the Ospreys they will of had to have taken points from at least 2 of Munster, Ulster and Glasgow or hope that 2 of Edinburgh, Zebra, Dragons or Blues will of done them a favour against the Scarlets.
Top 5 by Monday could easily be
Glasgow.  58
Ulster.      58
Munster.   57
Ospreys.   56
Leinster.   53

Final table for me is just as likely to be
Ospreys.    73.   Winning 5 + 2tbp
Glasgow.    72.   Winning 3 + 2lbp + 1tbp
Munster.     72.  Winning 4 + 1lbp + 2tbp
Ulster.        71.  Winning 4 + 1lbp + 1tbp
Could be the 1st play off final at a fixed country with 2 away teams competing.

Not wishful I assure you, that would have been Glasgow winning five. For Glasgow to get into the top two I think we may be relying on Edinburgh doing us two big favours. To be fair can see Ospreys winning five but think there is a chance of one slip.

Not only do I not like the idea of the final being fixed in one country. I can't actually think of one good reason why we should do it this way. Can anyone enlighten me?

FecklessRogue wrote:Not only do I not like the idea of the final being fixed in one country. I can't actually think of one good reason why we should do it this way. Can anyone enlighten me?

It can only be commercial reasons.  I think the logic being that if they can change to location every year with so many nations involved it would take some time before a league final would be held at that ground.  That should in the long term create a buzz factor when the event is drawn into that region.  I'd imagine they would get a lot more neutral intrest this way.  Also I know the ticket allotment was the main issue.  They wanted to be able to sell final tickets prior to the first place in the league being determined.  This way they can already start selling tickets as soon as the venue for next year has been decided as apposed to the 4-5 week turnaround they had in previous years.  

That said I actually think it was fine as was.  Generally the league winning side should have home ground advantage in any final.  After all they have earned the right through their performances all year long.  But as I said I believe this is purely commercial planning by the league and possibly also was influenced by Sky (who may have added this as a change they want to see).  We've already seen the broadcasters making changes to the general structure of the league in terms of rounds being played by all teams without games being rescheduled which I also believe was a influence from Sky.  

If in the long term it does improve attendances and gets finals played at the national stadiums in each country in front of full houses it may have been worth it but im a purist and think the league winning side should have home advantage.  As long as its done fairly (ie alternated by nations) so that everyone gets a turn regularly including the italians.

Totalflanker wrote:Not wishful I assure you, that would have been Glasgow winning five. For Glasgow to get into the top two I think we may be relying on Edinburgh doing us two big favours. To be fair can see Ospreys winning five but think there is a chance of one slip.

Agree with the Ospreys potentially winning 5. They have on the face of it the easiest run in of all the top 5 sides. Connacht I think will play a roll but 4 of their 5 fixtures are against top 5 opposition so to be fair they will be lucky to finish 6th in the league, where i believe the Scarlets will finish up (especially as they have no matches left against any top 5 side). So the question becomes if Connacht do win one of those 4 games, which side will they topple. Impossible to predict but its likely to be at a home match more than a away game I would have thought.

I'd say Ulster are looking a bit vunerable to me as well. I still think its asking to much of Leinster and they wont make the top 4, which I think would be the first time since the playoffs have been introduced.

I had posted some of this already but no doubt deserves it's own thread.

Current Standings 29/3/15
Glasgow 60
Ulster 58
Munster 58
Ospreys 56
Leinster 52


A recap on the remaining fixtures.

Ulster
Connacht
Leinster
Munster
Glasgow


Glasgow
Blues
Connacht
Ospreys
Ulster


Munster
Edinburgh
Treviso
Ulster
Dragons


Ospreys
Treviso
Blues
Glasgow
Connacht


Leinster
Dragons
Ulster
Treviso
Edinburgh

Opposition fighting for Top4 finish
Opposition fighting for Last European Qualification Slot

Squeeky Bum Time!

DISCUSS

A lot could ride on Ulster vs Leinster, but more than being a bit behind, I don't think Leinster will make it given the way they are playing.

Pretty disappointing chat thus far lads! Any Leinster fans want to disagree with the overwhelming opinion that they will not make the top 4?

Artful, I'll be at the Leinster game - It should be a cracker - as will the Munster game, The Glasgow game, the semi, and the final!

Have to admit, the league system now keeps team like Connacht, Edinburgh and Scarlets interested till the end.

Five Teams within 8 points of each other with 4 games left is quite impressive!

Not only the first time to miss the playoffs but the first time not to have a home playoff.

Leinster have 10 seasons at 3rd or better in the League. The last 5 we had 2 seconds and 3 firsts.

We look certain to be 5th this time. Very slim chance we could catch Ulster if they lose 2 but unlikely.

How'd I miss that, Thats a half hour I'll never get back!

Not at all clive - I have asked for these threads to be merged.

To answer your question - it seems unreal to say that Leinster will miss out on a playoff spot but that's really the most likely outcome here. The damage was done early in the season.

Jen, any chance of Leinster losing 5th place?

None. They would have to lose ALL of their remaining games (Inc Treviso in the RDS) with all of their returning 6 nations winning players. It is next to impossible.

The lower down we finish the worse next year's chumps cup placing will be, but even if we did drop to 6th we would still qualify.

I think Leinster will miss out. I think they needed to beat Glasgow. As it stands they probably need to win all their remaining games, which is a big ask given the Ulster fixture.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote: Very slim chance we could catch Ulster if they lose 2 but unlikely.

If you win at Ravenhill, then we still have to go away to Glasgow on the last day.

I cannot believe Ulster have got 17% of the vote, with a home final they will fighting tooth and nail to get there.

George Carlin wrote:Not at all clive - I have asked for these threads to be merged.

To answer your question - it seems unreal to say that Leinster will miss out on a playoff spot but that's really the most likely outcome here. The damage was done early in the season.

Nope the damage was done during the 6N,that is a period when our squad strength traditionally sees us hoover up a large number of points.I think we got 19 out of a possible 20 last year compared to something like 8 this year.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

Nope the damage was done during the 6N,that is a period when our squad strength traditionally sees us hoover up a large number of points.I think we got 19 out of a possible 20 last year compared to something like 8 this year.

Correct. That and losing to Munster in Dublin for the first time since Oct 08 was what did the damage. Add in even 12 points (out of a possible 17 missed) and we would be top of the league.

And if me Auntie had balls etc. (or if the team had more of them)

From an Edinburgh point of view it would be good if Leinster could blow it before they come to Murrayfield on the last day of the season. Can't see that happening though.

LordDowlais wrote:I cannot believe Ulster have got 17% of the vote, with a home final they will fighting tooth and nail to get there.

And Refs unwilling to give them more red cards to add to their tally this season.

VinceWLB wrote:And Refs unwilling to give them more red cards to add to their tally this season.

What has that got to do with this thread ?