European Double Dipping Failure

It was mentioned several times over the weekend how important it was for Willet to rack up Fedex points so that he could gain PGAT membership, temporarily at least.

Good stuff, but when was the last time a European made a successful transition to double dipping?

Recent failures include;

Victor Dubuisson
Jamie Donaldson
Jonas Blixt (at least he kept his card)
Thorbjorn Olesen
Edoardo Molinari (Ok, not that recent)
Matteo Manassero
Hanson
Lyn
Karlsson

There must be more.

But the last successful double dipping attempt must be Kaymer or McIlroy.


Just wondering why Europeans are now failing to make the transition to double dipping?

Mac,
I doubt if any of the golfers you mention are double-dipping failures.

Dubuisson doesn't seem to care.
Jamie D will be fine.
What does Blixt really want to do? He's perfectly happy in the US and is exempt this year.
Olesen was injured most of the time.
Eddie Molinari has never, to my knowledge, sought Tour membership.
Nor has Matteo.
Hanson, Karlsson have had unforgiving injury issues.
David Lynn seems to have opted out.

What's your point? Ross Fisher is the biggest disappointment. Colsaerts too, but he had his injury issues.

I would think Willett's problem will be his health. He's really got to figure out his schedule.

Darren Clarke took up membership last year and still exempt but didn't come close to making the FE Playoffs.

DoDo came close to securing a card a few years back but fell just short IIRC.   I think he wanted it, but not enough to go to Q-school.

Frankie need to keep playing a US schedule until he gets to 500 FE pts and he is 267th (and 113th in Standings).  I am not bullish on his prospects if he starts crossing the pond and playing in Europe.

Donaldson is 98th and still considerable short of retaining his tour card.

I don't think Oleson was injured in 2014 when he lost his card.  IMO, he thought he could coast by playing a limited PGATour schedule and it bit him.

Where is David Lynn?

GPB,
Do you think DC cared? I think he just wanted to play some events he liked.
Donaldson will be alright, Frankie just needs a couple of good results and he'll be OK.
But I think Fernandez Castano is Gonzo.

No idea about Lynn, he's exempt in Europe but not in the line-up for Wentworth.

He hasn't played in ages must be injured.

Kwini

"What's your point?"

I assume you are a fan of European golfers given how highly you value the Ryder Cup? Given this my point should be obvious.

Double dipping may have harmed many of Europes top golfers. Double dipping does not appear to have worked out for anyone since R-mac and Kayemer first tried about 4/5 years ago. And even Kaymer has had his issues.

It appears that the standard of play on the PGAT has got to the point where you can't rack up enough fedex points playing a limited schedule. Douple dipping works for those who prioritize the PGAT and top up their euro quota (like Rose, Rory, Poulter etc) and not those who play Europe as their main tour and try to add some PGAT events.

So why are players still trying to go down this route if it doesn't work?

What is double dipping?

Mac,
My "point" is that most of the golfers you selected either never got in the position to "double dip" or were doing it almost by default - i.e. had one or two good tournaments, qualified for STM and gave it a go. Very few have done it with any conviction and even fewer looked like they could ever be successful.

Clearly Gonzo has been a disappointment, and Frannie Molinari has his work cut out for him, but I'd expect Jamie Donaldson will be just fine.

Playing the PGA Tour is very different from playing the E.T., partly because the overall talent base is so much deeper, partly also because you're playing against course specialists every week and, significantly, because the effect of niggling injuries is compounded. Even Paul Casey fell foul of that and has had to focus solely on the PGA Tour this year to maximize his schedule and bolster his OWGR. Imagine he'll be back double-dipping after this year's Play-Offs.

Your examples are very poorly chosen, but double-dipping is certainly difficult to do successfully; in that respect I imagine Willett will do better than most.

George,
Playing two Tours.

kwini

What examples would you use to better illustrate the real situation?


Remember my basic premise is that Rory may have been the last payer to successfully convert to double dipping and since then all we have seen is failure?


And if this is true, why do so many players keep trying to make the switch. The conclusion being we have reached the stage where you need to dedicate yourself to the PGAT full time unless you are very good.

I would think Colsaerts, Fisher and Gonzo are three golfers who underestimated what they were getting in to; Gonzo got away with it last year, but he's really struggling this. Molinari needs some good tournaments and soon, but the events he needs to be playing are those where he might want to be in Europe or he's not exempt for.

Of those you mention, Olesen (arguably), Hanson and Karlsson all got into trouble trying to play through injuries and a couple of others never tried.

My biggest quibble with your assertions though is the word "failure". That seems intended to imply players were not good enough golfers, and my contention would be that there are other factors which mitigate against double-dipping success than golfing ability.
And the word I keep using is "unforgiving"; the PGA Tour only wants the very best, and its rules are in place to eliminate the rest, a sort of natural selection.

I would go as far as to suggest that, although the Top 125 is seen as the target, double-dippers need to be in at least the top 75, possibly top 50 to enjoy a successful PGA Tour career.

Kwini

Failure simply means that double dipping did not work for that player.  This includes failing to make the top 125, a dip in OWGR, negative impact on Euro tour form.  Or any other measure a player would use judge the success of their season.

Some of the players mentioned were not good enough golfers to succeed in the schedule they tried.  My theory is that very few payers are good enough to pull off a double dippers schedule.  For you to interpret that as me saying those players who do fail at double dipping are of low quality you have read something into what I wrote that does not exist.

As a measure of how well you think double dipping has worked for those attempting it in the last 5 years, would you recommend a player tried it now based on the results of others over the last 5 years?

I wouldn't.


Again nothing to do with not being good enough, but even very good players who live in the US and dedicate all their time to the PGAT, and who have many more events in which to gain the required points fail.  Is it really all that likely in times of growing field strength that you can retain a PGAT card in a limited number of appearances?



(edit)
PS

Just had a look and I think the average amount of PGAT events entered by those in the top 125 of the fedex cup was 22 last season.  If you only manage 15/16 events that is a lot of potential points gaining situations lost to the field.


PPS

Another issue to consider. How bad would your PGAT play have to be before you gain fewer OWGR points that you might have done had you stayed in Europe?

For example, if you average top 40 in the PGAT what would that equate to in OWGR terms in europe if you played Euro events instead of those PGAT events. Would you need to be averaging top 15 in europe.

It might certainly be a tough thing to calculate for a player thinking of taking on some double dipping.

Another way to think about it might be. You are top 15 in the Euro order of merit and just inside the worlds top 50 at the end of one season and decide to double dip. What sort of PGAT performance would you need the next season for double dipping to move you up the OWGR?

Mac,
I would think Danny Willett has a very good chance of success, but also think he needs to maximize all his opportunities for the rest of this year, if only to boost his owgr and provide the cushion of entry into most of the WGC's and Majors.

To succeed I reckon you need the following:

1).A strong enough owgr to withstand the inevitable performance and health bumps, yet still qualify for Majors & WGC's. (Molinari, for one, handicapped himself here.)

2).Make the PGA Tour your base and build your schedule around that, not the other way around. This would mean sacrificing either the R2D season-ending tournaments OR the Gulf Swing, possibly both.

3).Don't try and play through injury - make sure you have a back-up plan if poor health inflicts you. (The biggest problem for the double-dippers and close to a dozen have been frustrated here.)

The biggest red light for Willett is his back - he simply can't afford to play through back problems, the PGA Tour will spit him out in a heart-beat. His biggest plus presumably is his two years at Jacksonville Uni and hopefully he has something of a base there. Playing Sunday with Furyk can only have helped him, hope they exchanged notes and ideas.

Compounding all this is the problem/ambition of Ryder Cup qualification.
I don't like the fact that Casey gave up his ET membership for a year, but it's worked well so far and he's back in the top echelon (albeit a grade below the galacticos) of golfers where he belongs. He tried to play through about three different physical issues and completely lost his game and his standing.

Willett will want to qualify for next year's Ryder Cup so how he reconciles those ambitions is going to be quite a trick.


One final thing: Securing a PGA Tour card doesn't necessarily commit a golfer to a lifetime on the PGA Tour; we certainly don't know what personal issues drive, or have driven, the likes of Darren Clarke, David Lynn and Dubuisson. But what PGA Tour membership offers for one year is the ability to play certain tournaments/courses, explore another continent on your sponsor's dime, all in the certain knowledge that the safety net of the European Tour is waiting for you if you don't like it. And not everyone does, or will. Plenty of examples down the years.

I think Harrington is nuts but he's the exception that doesn't make the rule; someone whose Major wins has allowed him to play the PGA Tour like a drum for the past few years. Reckon his Honda win came just in the nick of time.


Whilst I think of it, you might want to consider whether guys who have upped sticks from Europe and never really gone back are "failures" or just quietly getting wealthy with largely journeyman results: Davis and Owen, Cejka and Jacobson to name but four. I'd say they've done alright for themselves but no doubt others would differ.

kwini

On your last point. Those who have upped sticks no longer double dip, so are not part of this equation. But no they are not failures, given the extra dosh they must have earned. In most cases they will have sacrificed euro wins for American money. And why not.


"2).Make the PGA Tour your base and build your schedule around that, not the other way around. This would mean sacrificing either the R2D season-ending tournaments OR the Gulf Swing, possibly both."

This has to be key. I remember years back saying that a player not based full time in the US couldn't expect to win a major. And the same applies for PGAT success.

Are there any examples of a player having a good PGAT season while not living in the US?

1).Agreed.

2).Apart from the early days of Rory, I can't think anyone's had really "good PGA Tour seasons" since Olazabal and early Sergio, unless you count Harrington; not always completely sure where he's based from one year to the next. And I'm not sure how committed Stenson was to living in the USA when he won the Players & MatchPlay.

But, yes, you've pretty much got to be all in.

I would say, for instance, that Westwood is only just now learning the PGA Tour, and probably too late in his career to have a lasting impact.

Don't completely agree that guys who have upped sticks are necessarily exchanging European Tour wins for Tour dosh - no guarantee that they'd have accumulated ET wins, but one thing is certain; they've each had to consolidate in the US before really moving forward in their careers. And in most of the cases I mentioned, they arguably had to take a step back before moving forward.

We can certainly agree that it's not as easy as it looks, either from a Euro or US standpoint, differences being far greater than meet the eye.

Would you agree it is now unclear how to transition from a European tour player to a PGAT one? It seems that unless you are of McIlroy ability it is now a very hard transition to make. Does Willet for example just try the double dip method that has recently failed for so many or is there another way?

Willett has the advantage that McDowell had in that he's played College Golf for two years; hopefully he's seen enough, and Chubby has learned enough, that he can be successful.
But I would warn that success will not come overnight for anyone unless, as you say, they have transcending ability.

Poulter and Rose both had very average starts to their PGA Tour careers before getting it right, but I would suggest that Willett has the ability to be a top player, but only after a couple of seasons acclimatizing. He needs at least 22 Tour events, so hopefully he will budget on about 25 and forego some European Tour appearances if they don't fit in with that schedule.

Molinari has confirmed that he'll play this week in Espana and not take his "committed" place in the Quail Hollow field.

It looks like he'll stay in Europe for the next three weeks; does that suggest he might have thrown his PGA Tour hand in unless he revives his owgr placing in Europe to secure places in the Majors? I would say Yes!

https://twitter.com/eurogolfpreview/status/597867620298334208
https://twitter.com/TerryPilkadaris/status/597862805069570048

Regarding David Lynn....it seems like he may have retired.

Hope everything is OK. I've just realised I follow him on Twitter but hadn't seen anything for a while. Some of his Tweets were very funny.

Wasn't it quail hollow where david lynn lost in a play off to whathisname who has been super rubbish ever since. I'm sure lynn secured his card for last season after that. He then went to Europe and won in Portugal and seemed to vanish. He was an average journeyman who got lucky at kiawah island to gain his pga card. Maybe he felt he gave the usa a go won an euro event and lost interest.

That's right ben, but can't see that his fifteen month purple patch would be any reason to pack it in. He seemed pretty good mates with Poulter & Westwood when he was over here, and had a pretty amusing twitter account. Weird that he's just disappeared.
Can't put it down to flukey results, his best finishes were pretty bl00dy good!
Hope he and his family are OK and he'll be back to go again.

Mac,
Just to offer further thoughts on how difficult it is to double-dip unless you're in the owgr Top 50:
Starting with The Masters, there are 11 Tour weeks and the average (say ranked 75 in the owgr's) European golfer playing the Tour for the first time may only reach four fields.
So this is a good time for Molinari, for instance, to play some E.T. events until Memphis or perhaps The Travelers. The PGA Tour season will be over before he knows it.

David Lynn has started to Tweet again.

A great week from Francesco last week, and good to see Sullivan do well. Has Lingmerth ever played on the European Tour?

Lingmerth has played the Nordea Masters twice as far as I can see - missed cut both times; said he was disappointed to miss it this time but imagine he now feels he made the right decision!

Yeah, Good for Francesco; still a bit of work to do but odds on now to keep his card and contest the FedEx Play-Offs.