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Clay court season

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Henman Bill
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Clay court season Empty Clay court season

Post by summerblues Sun May 17, 2015 5:58 pm

This is what I get when I try to collect data for the current point leaders from the Euro clay court swing:

PlayerPoints
1Djokovic2000
2Murray1340
3Nadal1185
4Berdych1140
5Nishikori1040
6Federer950
7Ferrer900
8Wawrinka540
9Monfils495
9Dimitrov495
10Klizan450
11Garcia-Lopez440
Some of the takeaways that I see:

1.  Nole far and away the best.  Did not lose a match and had some good wins.  I have been saying all along that for me Rafa is still the #1 RG favorite, but I am not so sure anymore.  Not only the points, but also Nole's form looks ominous.  He was playing extremely well today.  If he can keep it up, I suspect he will win the FO.  But can he?  Also, will it be good or bad for him that he is now headed to the FO as the favorite in many people's eyes.

2.  Andy also unbeaten on clay and surprisingly the second biggest point total in spite of effectively playing only two tournaments.  I would still be very surprised if he wins RG, but he is a contender now.

3.  Rafa - for all his poor form - is still #3.  This roughly tells me that even if he plays as poorly (relatively speaking) as he has been so far, he will still be something like #2-#3 contender for the FO.  However, I expect him to play quite a bit better than he has been playing thus far.  Will it be enough to win?  I think he still has a good chance and while I may be changing my view that he is the #1 favorite there, I do not think he is far behind.

4.  The rest.  Berdych is Berdych I think.  He can play well but he will fold when it matters.  Nishi maybe slightly disappointing.  He had some good matches but no real breakthrough.  Fed's total point haul not particularly impressive, but the form seems to be headed in the right direction.  Not too many surprises beyond that.

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Post by Henman Bill Sun May 17, 2015 6:40 pm

Nadal may be 3 but the players listed 4 to 7 got more or less the same points.

Here's my favourites list for FO:

1 Djokovic
2 Nadal


3 Federer
4 Murray
5 Nishikori
6 Ferrer
7 Warwinka

with the caveat that Ferrer 6th means 6th most likely to win the tournament, but probably 3rd most likely to reach a quarter final, semi final, or maybe even final.

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Post by Henman Bill Sun May 17, 2015 6:45 pm

One interesting thing to note is that this is probably the first time EVER Rafa has gone into RG as second favourite. He was actually tournament favourite in 2005 the first time he ever entered it.

A couple of times in recent years he was no longer such a clear favourite, and it was relatively 50/50 with him and Djokovic, but never clearly second favourite.

Maybe that hunter mentality will suit him a little. Reminds me of AO 2012. Going into the match Novak had established a massive superiority in the head to head against him with a mega amount of consecutive wins (like 7,8) including on clay, Wimbledon final, US Open final, but Rafa came at the match hunting as the clear underdog, and played very well, and was perhaps one missed shot away from winning.

Just some food for thought there. I still think Djokovic is going to win.

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Post by Silver Sun May 17, 2015 6:49 pm

Interesting stats SB, thanks.

Unfortunately the draw could really skew this slam - more than any other, given Nadal's current position outside the top four.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Mon May 18, 2015 11:21 am

I have a feeling that Kei may do some damage at the FO this year. It seems that he's not putting lots of efforts at Rome, I think he's thinking about the FO instead. If Kei could fight all the way to the USO final beating some top players in five setters, I think he could do the same at the FO.

I wish to say something about Rafa, his day matches this European clay season were quite well played by Rafa, except for that Foggy match at Barcelona. I think as long as Rafa could play like he did the day matches, he should be fine until the later stages. His fighting spirit should see him through tough matches along the way; should he reach the QF, he has 50-50 chances of meeting Berdych or Fed instead of Murray and Novak, so who knows, he may yet again reaches the SF or even the Final. BO5 matches on clay will give Rafa more time to iron out any kinks in his game caused by nervousness, etc.

I know that favorite or not, Rafa will try his best at the FO, may or may not be enough, but I think he should be doing just fine there, for he knows it's the FO that matters most, not the Masters. He may play his matches at the SL court instead of the main show court, as he's now no.7, maybe less attention on him and so less pressure too, as no one expects him to win now.

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Post by banbrotam Mon May 18, 2015 12:39 pm

Looks like Murray's a cert for RG Wink . Novak will clearly be injured. Let the excuses start now Laugh

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/32773143

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Post by temporary21 Mon May 18, 2015 12:43 pm

Novaks chances all hinge on avoiding Fognini, we all know that Very Happy

In all seriousness, Kei s fitness worries me a bit, ideally for the most even draw you would want Rafa In Feds quarter so he cant meet Novak until the final.
Wawrinkas a much darker horse than Kei to me,

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Post by temporary21 Mon May 18, 2015 12:44 pm

Interestingly, swap Dimi for Ferrer, and you may well have the top ten in a years time or so

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Post by laverfan Tue May 19, 2015 7:07 pm

Silver wrote:Unfortunately the draw could really skew this slam - more than any other, given Nadal's current position outside the top four.

It would be crazy to have Djokovic, Murray and Nadal in the same half. Shocked

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Fri May 22, 2015 4:04 am

Stan could just lose in the first round! Hes playing badly since the AO, too inconsistent and many players could beat him on his bad days and he has plenty of bad days.

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