Quarter Final Prediction Game

These quarters look hard to call, so I suggest a prediction game might be good fun.

Can anyone show their knowledge of matchups and intimate understanding of the game and predict the winner in all 4 quarters, or more realistically at least three out of four.  Post the names of the players you expect to win.

As a bonus extra, throw in a random extra prediction or two if you feel like. If necessary, I can use these as a tiebreaker.

Djokovic v Nadal
Murray v Ferrer
Nishikori v Tsonga
Wawrinka v Federer

My prediction: To win:

Djokovic
Murray
Nishikori
Federer

And:
Murray-Ferrer match to be longer than Djokovic-Nadal.

Do we predict set score?

If you like. The winner of the game will simply be most correct predictions of winner of matches, but any other predictions like set score, exact game score (some people like to do it), or anything else fine just for fun or as the tiebreaker.

Chances are no-one will get all 4 right, so an assessment of the extra predictions might be needed for the tiebreaker.

Djokovic in four sets - 6-4 7-5 3-6 6-2

Ferrer in four sets - 6-4 6-4 5-7 6-4

Nishikori in three sets - 7-5 6-3 6-4

Federer in four sets - 6-4 6-7 6-3 6-2

Djokovic in 3
Murray in 4
Nishikori in 4
Federer in 4

Djokovic in 5, Murray in 5, Nishikori in 4, Federer in 5.

Djokovic in 3
Ferrer in 5
Kei in 4
Federer in 5

Nadal in 4
Ferrer in 4
Nishikori in 4
Federer in 3

Djokovic in 4
Murray in 4
Tsonga in 5
Federer in 4

Djokovic in four
Ferrer in four
Wawrinka in straights
Tsonga in four

No takers for Stan yet...

I think he has a very good chance. Federer doesn't look that sharp to me, hasn't done well at this tourny in recent years, often loses at this stage of a slam to this level of opponents in recent years...Stan has cruised through the draw.

Can I tempt anyone?

I was going to go for Stan myself, until a quick look at the head to head record made me change my mind at the last minute, but it looks like a 50/50 match to me.

EDIT: Ah Kingraf, nice one.

Djokovic in 4

Ferrer in 4

Federer in 4

Nishikori in 4

Djokovic murray Tsonga wawrinka

Beat me to it HB. Was planning a similar thread. It really is too close to call. I wonder how far you'd have to go back to find such a finely balanced set of quarter final match-ups in a slam. Pretty much everyone is a head scratcher for me.

Djoko vs Nadal - on current form, it's hard to see past Novak. He hasn't lost a top tier match for yonks and is looking very formidable indeed. However, if there ever was a reason to tear up the form book, it would be for Rafa at RG. He's not going down without one hell of a fight and, just maybe, the pressure of Novak's quest for the Holy Grail of tennis will be a decisive factor.

Murray vs Ferrer - Andy leads the H2H 9-6, but Daveed leads the clay H2H 4-0 and crushed the reigning US Open champ in the last round. Before this year, Andy had never beaten a top 8 player on clay, but just a few weeks ago, he dispatched 3 top 8 players in a row to lift the Madrid Masters title and his win against Chardy stretched his clay win streak to 14. It's not quite the blockbuster of Nadal vs Djoko, but very much continues the form versus history theme.

Nishi vs Tsonga - this one pits the rising star against the home favourite. Kei has had the upper hand in their previous meetings and his game is surely more suited to the dirt than Jo's. However, Jo can beat anyone on his day and will have the advantage of a raucous home crowd.

Wawrinka vs Federer - there is a hint of an inferiority complex dogging Stan in his rivalry with Roger, a suggestion borne out by the dominating H2H in Roger's favour. In the past, this would have been a cast iron certainty for Roger, as, frankly, would pretty much any slam QF match-up that you could throw at him. However, the old man's consistency in best of 5 is a pale shadow and, rather untypically, Stan has been cutting through the draw with ruthless efficiency.

My tentative predictions are:

Djoko in 4
Murray in 4
Nishi in 5
Stan in 5

Djokovic 4
Murray 3
Nish 4
Stan 5

I think Stan is coming back into form although frankly he plays worse against Roger than against anyone else on tour I think the slower surface and more time on the ball along with his rebuilt confidence and focus will be enough to carry. To be honest I kind of picked that one because I didn't want have the same picks as everyone else who picked the same three as I did and then picked Fed.

Way to copy me Socal. Thought you could get away with it by changing the set scores did you!? Hardly the perfect crime....

Hey if you're going to put it on the line, put it on the line:

Rafa df Djokovic 7-6, 7-6, 2-6, 7-5

Ferrer df Murray 4-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-2

Nishikori d Tsonga 7-5, 6-4, 6-3

Federer df Wawrinka 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-2

Not much optimism to be had amongst the traditional Murray fans I see.

You are a very brave person, yloponom68.

Hey, just giving it a go...

I see all but the 3rd quarter as coming down to a few crucial points in at least two of the sets - so whomever takes those opportunities, they'll be vital. What transpires around those "tight" two sets, will affect things as well, in terms of general score line pressure.

The 3rd quarter, I think we'll see the dogged and consistent resistance, come out significantly over the flashy play of Tsonga. The French crowd won't get to Nishikori, with his Japanese mind set, he'll play his game and wont' be swayed by the crowd. And I don't see Tsonga getting up easily in two or three sets, so it's going to be serious work for him to get on top of Nishikori - just don't see it happening.

Don't think Stan will bring the mindset to the match that he needs, and back that up with his play over 5 sets. Federer will come through that one, I really feel. Again losing a set, two go quite close but Federer wins the "crucial" points.

Rafa v Novak - this is the "fulchrum" of the men's draw, from which all the rest in later rounds will depend. Regardless of who wins that match, it's going to be exhausting I think, and I think we'll see the Rafa that we know at RG, rather than the one who's made too many appearances on the red stuff this season. I just believe that this is where his heart is, and he'll leave it all out on the court. Sure, there is a chance it will be 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 for Djokovic, but I think a bigger chance for it to go similarly to the score I suggested. Will happily devour my "humble/way off the mark" pie, should I need to do so. But it's all in good fun anyway. My boy's got his 9, so if he's had his "quota," I'm OK with that. Will be first to say Well Done Novak...if that's the way it goes. But admit it's going to be nerve-wracking to watch that match, however the score line plays out.

What a racquet it all is !!

Mine (FWIW ....!) :

- Nadal in 5

- Murray in 3

- Nishikori in 4

- Federer in 5



Thoughts .....

Ok, so my Nadal pick is off-piste, BUT ....just have a hunch that Rafa is edging towards the sort of vintage clay performance that has eluded him all season ; and that near-flawless Novak is eventually due a below-par match. Irrational, I know......

Murray is a different animal on clay this year, and will not be fazed over five by Daveed's running & scrapping

JWT will grab a set on the back of home crowd energy, but Kei will stay calm, focussed and stick to his task

Federer will squander enough BP chances to concede two sets, but will have enough to hold off Stan. Just.

(CAVEAT : every match could go entirely the other way  )

Worth noting that, for all the promising signs from the youngsters, Djokovic is the 2nd youngest player in the QF - age 28.

Djokovic in 4. Probably too consistent but he'll have to deal with a late Nadal fightback. If he loses the 4th set, he'll lose the match.

Murray in 4. Ferrer will trouble him, but not for long enough.

Nishikori in 5. Tsonga will play well but probably gas towards the end. Kei looking good so far, but untested.

Wawrinka in 4. And if he plays like he did against Simon, Federer won't get more than 10 games.

Novak, Stan, Andy andKei

Arguably the best slam quarter finals we've had in years and I'd be happy for these to be the eight at O2

banbrotam wrote:Novak, Stan, Andy andKei

Arguably the best slam quarter finals we've had in years and I'd be happy for these to be the eight at O2

Agreed, great set of players.

And it's nice to see a Frenchman having a bit of a run as well. You have to say it's a big opportunity for Tsonga, Nish and Stan to make their first final here.

Born Slippy wrote:Worth noting that, for all the promising signs from the youngsters, Djokovic is the 2nd youngest player in the QF - age 28.

Good point.

But worth noting also that the QF line-up mirrors the seedings (almost) exactly  - the solitary gate-crasher being Tsonga, who took Berdych's spot - and deservedly so.

Nole in 4
Murray in 4
Nishi in 3
Fed in 3

Rafa 5
Ferrer 5
Nishi 3
Stan 4

Born Slippy wrote:Worth noting that, for all the promising signs from the youngsters, Djokovic is the 2nd youngest player in the QF - age 28.

That's an incredible statistic.

I suppose there's a minor caveat in that Novak and Andy are only just turned 28 (both in May) but, nevertheless, where is the youth?

The draw probably didn't favour Kyrgios, Kokkinakis and Sock this year as they ended up with Novak, Rafa and Andy.

But that statistic highlights the biggest criticism of younger generation. It's one thing not to be taking down the like of Novak, Rafa and Andy but the're not even challenging Wawrinka, Berdych and Ferrer yet.

Predictions:

Djokovic v Nadal - Novak in 4 tight sets (probably take 4 hours +)
Murray v Ferrer - Andy in 4
Nishikori v Tsonga - Nishi in 4, losing a TB along the way
Wawrinka v Federer - Fed in 3.

HM

Interesting comment about the youngsters. One thing it highlights is how poorly the 22-27 age group have done, as Nishi is the only one to make the QF - historically this has been the prime age for tennis players, with 28+ being the start of the decline.

It's not such a surprise that the 20 year olds are falling short, especially when they get drawn against 'Big 4' opponents at this stage.

Rafa in four
Fed four
Murray four
Nishi four

B Slippy/HMM - Wonder if this is one of the most age-ist quarter-final line ups. With the four best players now at least 28 the latter stages of tournaments are going to get "older and older".

I have formulated the theory as to why it is taking longer for players to really break through so won't bore people again especially not on this thread.

dummy_half wrote:Interesting comment about the youngsters. One thing it highlights is how poorly the 22-27 age group have done, as Nishi is the only one to make the QF - historically this has been the prime age for tennis players, with 28+ being the start of the decline.

Yes, and for all the talk about players peaking later nowadays, I still view 28-29 as the point where decline occurs.

Federer definitely started tailing off at that age. It's early to say for sure with Rafa but my strong suspicion is that this period will be seen as the start of his decline.

The likes of Ferrer and Berdych have turned in good seasons beyond that age but I don't see them as being better. They are doing the same thing they've always done but have had the benefit of not being picked off by a younger generation. All they've done is hold their ground.

I like Nishikori but if he is the leading light of a generation, then that's a generation that isn't glowing very brightly.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I have formulated the theory as to why  it is taking longer for players to really break through so won't bore people again especially not on this thread.

I apply Occam's Razor to my theory:

The reason the younger generation have not broken through is because they are not as good as the generation that preceded them.

I don't want to derail this very interesting thread but will post up my theory in a new thread.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I don't want to derail this very interesting thread but will post up my theory in a new thread.

Good idea.

Sorry, HB, for the deviation!

SFP

It's not just that the 'Big 4' are now 28, 28, 29 (well, tomorrow) and 33, but that Stan and J-WT are both just turned 30 and Ferrer 33.

While it is not a surprise to me that the Kyrgios generation are yet to make the break-through, what has happened to the generation between - only Nishi here and Del Potro have made the progress expected of them (J-MDP is a big miss for the tour, and even he is now 26 or 27).

On the age topic, at least some of the youngsters are looking like the real business. Kokkinakis is just 19, Kyrgios is just 20. Sock played very well at times against Rafa. He's 22. Coric is only 18.

SFP

Not sure about Sock - he may still progress, but he's leaving it a bit late. The others you mention though give me hope that the new generation of players may be better than the current mid-career one. Probably won't make it to the heights of the Fedalovicurray group, but then that is one of the strongest top 4's (and certainly the most consistent over an extended period) since the game went Open.

Djokovic 5 sets
Ferrer 4 sets
Federer 4 sets
Nishikori 5 sets

The djokovic and Murray matches in particular could easily go the other way. Literally 50/50 in both of those, toughest matches to call in a long time!!!

You'd reckon Murray would beat Ferrer in most matches, albeit after a long struggle. But on clay and at the French? It's a big ask. A few weeks ago I would definitely have gone for the Spaniard, but Andy is in the best clay-court form of his life, so I reckon he'll sneak it. Glad I'm not having to put money on it, though.

Does anyone know the order of play?

I only ask because I think that may have a bearing. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up with, but I have a hunch that Federer always seems to struggle once Nadal has gone out. Whether it be a titanic 5 set struggle or he simply loses. Whether it be in the round afterwards or if RF plays later in the day (as a RN loss).

My guess is:

Nadal, Murray, Tsonga, Federer

If Djokovic beats Nadal before RF vs SW match

Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Wawrinka.

Apologies if that makes no sense!

J-Jeep. Fed plays today, Rafa tomorrow. Fed has been pushed on to Lenglen as Tsonga is on centre court.

Oh really? Sorry. I should have done some research first (been busy at work this morning). I (wrongly) assumed all men's QF would be played tomorrow.

Therefore Federer, Murray, Tsonga and Nadal.

I think it will be all too much for Djokovic.

I think the Murray vs Ferrer match will be very interesting. Normally I would go for Ferrer straight away on clay but this year has seen a vastly improved Murray on clay.

I do feel that the 1st set will be more crucial to Murray. If he loses that set and Ferrer grows in confidence, it will be a long way back against such a tenacious competitor on clay. If Murray wins the 1st set, it will dramatically increase his chances of winning but Ferrer will still make him work all the way for the win. Ferrer is more of a natural on clay and he plays the margins well. You couldn't get a bigger contrast from Chardy............Ferrer doesn't really have one big weapon but he makes so few unforced errors which is in many ways more difficult to combat over a long match.

The same applies in the Novak vs Rafa match, I feel the 1st set is more important to djokovic and I hope to see him come out playing aggressive and taking the match to Rafa. The forecast for Wednesday is about 22 degrees and cloudy which will differ from previous matches they have had at the French open. I remember the one time the weather turned colder and cloudier when they met in Paris, Djokovic got on a roll until rain halted play. Nadal couldn't get the kick off his forehand shots in the cooler weather. If Nadal does get through that match, temperatures are to sore up beyond 30 degrees later in the week, bad news for any future opponents.

Johnyjeep wrote:...but I have a hunch that Federer always seems to struggle once Nadal has gone out.

Didn't Fed win his last slam the very year Nadal crashed out early of Wimbeldon 12?

slashermcguirk wrote: The forecast for Wednesday is about 22 degrees and cloudy which will differ from previous matches they have had at the French open.

This is important.

I think Novak's chances against Rafa are much better in a cool, cloudy QF than a hot and sunny final.

Really, for Djokovic, it's now or never. I can't think of a single factor that is less than ideal for him.

Federer also won his only French open when nadal was knocked out early

Nishikori 5, Federer 4, Murray 4, Djokovic 4