where does Nadal go from here?

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I am not saying he won't have a comeback or that he is done or dusted. But he can't play like Nadal of 20 or 25 anymore. I think that much is clear. His whole formula was based on being able to be the fittest guy, the fastest guy, and the player who could run around 90 percent of his backhands to hit forehands. He just can't anymore. People are wondering why his forehand seems so weak. Well the answer to me is simple. He is asking too much of the FH and of his legs. His style of play requires him to run more than his opponent and to get into position to hit FH from anywhere in the court. This tactic along with his big swings require him to stand back further and to do more running than any guy on the tour. At this stage it just won't work. The reason his FH isn't as penetrating and as good is that he is late on the ball, that he can't get his feet right to hit the ball the way he should. I mean Nadal hasn't forgotten how to hit his forehand. He is either lunging or he can't get his body out of the way fast enough so he gets jammed on the FH wing. It becomes very easy to hit a ball if you are in the right position and you are top pro. If you drop a ball short to him midcourt he still knows how to whack it and angle it off the court. But the top guys aren't going to do that very often to him. They are going into all the space Rafa leaves on the FH side and he is late getting there so he either errors or gives back a short reply that they can then finish. This problem is compounded by the fact that Nadal is not as confident or as good as he used to be at going up the line with that FH. This could be due to the fact that if his opponent gets there the cross court is wide open and he can be hurt if he doesn't do enough with that ball.


So what can Rafa do to get back to the top. I know this sounds crazy but he has to abandon the core of his game. And I personally don't believe that he can do it. Because unlike Federer or Agassi when he got older he doesn't need just minor tweaks and improvements he needs a whole new outlook on the game of tennis. I actually think if he is dedicated enough to a new formula he can pull it off. But I don't think it is likely because it may require a year or more of him actually going backwards to go forwards.

1. He needs to trust the backhand and run around less. His backhand is actually pretty good. I mean it isn't as good as Murray or Djoko's but he can do damage with it and he has improved his down the line backhand. This will relieve the pressure on both his legs, his lungs, and his FH. Instead of running around every backhand just run around the ones that every other pro would run around the mid court ones

2. He has to do more damage with the return and his return position. The whole dropping back to hit a heavy return that gets you back to neutral thing is not going to work against the very best. He doesn't have to hit outright winners but he can take a page here from Djokovic and hit a flatter, earlier ball into uncomfortable positions for his opponent. That is something he did to Novak in the hardcourt swing of 2013 so he can do it, but I haven't seen it since.

3. Maybe hitting with the most RPMs, is hitting with too much RPMS. He needs to flatten out the FH, the FH is the core of his game and right now his current strategy is just not impacting the best guys. He has that flat FH, I have seen it over and over again since 09 and a little before.

4. Point 3 leads to point 4. He needs to move up to near the baseline and play. To hit a flatter FH he needs to be closer to the baseline and shorten his swing. He needs to hit with more mph and less RPM. When he is late on his FH as he often is now the ball either sales long, goes into the net, or drops short and if his opponent is good enough he takes advantage.

5. More variety on his serve. Every one and their grandmother knows where Nadal is going with 90 percent of his serves. Fed and Djoko don't have the biggest serves in terms of mph. I mean Djokovic hits his first serve marginally faster than Nadal. But what he does is that he mixes up his serves and doesn't stick to one tell tale pattern. Fed is particularly brilliant at this as the returner has no idea where the serve is going till he hits it and by then it is too late.

6. He has to go up the line more off both wings. His CC BH is good his down the line BH is weak he needs to improve the frequency and effectiveness of this shot. And he needs to use the down the line FH more and recently he hasn't done much damage with it against the best players.

I honestly don't think he can pull off these changes. Not that he doesn't have the ability but I just think it is very hard for a top pro to completely overhaul like this at 29 years of age. But I don't think he can continue to play the current style in his thirties like Fed has been able to. It asks so much of his legs, his heart, his lungs, and his FH. He should wake up tomorrow and say this is the way I am going to play and if I go 0-39 till I get it right that is what I have to do. Because the current strategy of resurrecting the old (young) Nadal into this Nadal's body I don't think will work. And if it does work it isn't going to work for long.

laverfan wrote:If Nadal can stay healthy, that is the paramount requirement, to be able to inject any new stuff into his coaching regimen.

He has been on tour for 10+ years, he had a meteoric rise, but hope he has a softer landing, whenever that will be.

It may be the end of the world for his fans, but it is not for him. It is very hard to give up what you have pursued as a career all you life.

Personally I believe he has no where to go ... (and that's not being unduly pessimistic)he said once that he would retire when he stops winning tournaments, and that he would know when the time came to hang up his racquet. So that time is here. He cannot change his game, he cannot and will not change his coach, even if he did it would be too little too late. Because the spark has gone, not just from him as a player, but him as a man He finds it spasmodically but then it dies.. The mindset he has always had, the mental strength is the part of his game that has made him so hard to beat, is now his weakness.. He never will, and never can be the Rafa we his fans have come to know and love. From here what ever recovery he makes will only be short lived. So I for one, unlike those who have prayed for his demise, will miss him the sport needed him and there will never be another like him. I would prefer him to go now.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

laverfan wrote:If Nadal can stay healthy, that is the paramount requirement, to be able to inject any new stuff into his coaching regimen.

He has been on tour for 10+ years, he had a meteoric rise, but hope he has a softer landing, whenever that will be.

It may be the end of the world for his fans, but it is not for him. It is very hard to give up what you have pursued as a career all you life.

Personally I believe he has no where to go ... (and that's not being unduly pessimistic)he said once that he would retire when he stops winning tournaments, and that he would know when the time came to hang up his racquet.  So that time is here. He cannot change his game, he cannot and will not change his coach, even if he did it would be too little too late. Because the  spark has gone, not just from him as a player, but him as a man He finds it spasmodically but then it dies.. The mindset he has always had, the mental strength is the part of his game that has made him so hard to beat, is now his weakness.. He never will, and never can be the Rafa we his fans have come to know and love. From here  what ever recovery he makes will only be short lived.  So I for one, unlike those who have prayed for his demise, will miss him the sport needed him and there will never be another like him.  I would prefer him to go now.

Wow, you and IMBL really seem to have switched places on this one. Feeling at all sheepish for giving him such a hard time for his alleged betrayal of the faith?

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Feeling at all sheepish for giving him such a hard time for his alleged betrayal of the faith?

Not sure what you mean by this .. if you mean do I feel like Im betraying Rafa ..no I don't. I am a realist not an ostrich Im telling it as it is, not what I would like it to be. Anything else now comes down to HOPE and nothing else. I believed like many, that Rafa was having a temporary blip.. and that as he did when he made the comeback of all time, he could do it again. But for once I agree with BB that this can no longer be blamed on injury, or recovery it is much more serious that was frighteningly  evident in his match with Novak. Rafa Nadal was not on court. He mentally crumbled like Ive never seen before, and wish to see again

Belovedluckyboy wrote:BB, Fed with a faster style still lost, because hes also getting slower as father time beckons. We see a drop off of Fed's level after 2009, in fact its after 2008, he was fortunate in 2009 that Rafa was injured and Novak wasnt ready to challenge him.  Its in 2010 that he started losing in QFs of slams and the trend continues...in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015......

I agree entirely; the change most recently is just allowing him to stay on the stage not return to the top. Once it's gone, it's gone.

I'm just saying Rafa hasn't got that change available to him.

Rafa has always had a knack of storming back from bouts of injury etc. and proving the doubters wrong, but his latest clay form, at a time when he is apparently injury free, is absolutely unprecedented. He's no spring chicken and, if I was Rafa fan, I'd definitely be fearing the worst.

After all the wear and tear of playing a very phyiscal brand of tennis for so long, I'm not sure he's going to have the stomach to turn things round if his ranking starts to plummet. I hope he can prove me wrong, as the tennis landscape will not be the same without him.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Feeling at all sheepish for giving him such a hard time for his alleged betrayal of the faith?

Not sure what you mean by this .. if you mean do I feel like Im betraying Rafa ..no I don't. I am a realist not an ostrich Im telling it as it is, not what I would like it to be. Anything else now comes down to HOPE and nothing else. I believed like many, that Rafa was having a temporary blip.. and that as he did when he made the comeback of all time, he could do it again. But for once I agree with BB that this can no longer be blamed on injury, or recovery it is much more serious that was frighteningly  evident in his match with Novak. Rafa Nadal was not on court. He mentally crumbled like Ive never seen before, and wish to see again

I won't labour the point, but wasn't IMBL just telling it like it is too? Just turns out he was a bit more prescient than you.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:So, like I said, we have to see how the rest of the season unfolds.  He won't be getting any worse that I'm sure, as he's steadily improving. Also I don't expect him to play from way behind the baseline on the HCs, so clearly he won't have to run so much to defend all the time.

Eh? Really?

Henman Bill wrote:Interesting point made above. To expand a bit: In this whole season, whether on clay or not, Nadal is generally beating lower ranked players but losing to top 10 players (very very roughly), whether on clay or hard.

Actually the opposite trend to the rest of his career where he has built strong head to heads against the other top players but suffered more surprise defeats than other top players perhaps.

Not sure what to read into that.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=pa

Probably means he's a solid top-tenner. Statement of obvious really.

To think any other is sheer delusionary ... and that comes from an ardent supporter who is not in denial

Haddie-nuff wrote:To think any other is sheer delusionary ... and that comes from an ardent supporter who is not in denial

Took me a long time to swallow the same about Federer; indeed I still have irrational hopes come Slam time now; they probably won't stop until he does, which means an awful lot of disappointment.

And here comes Wimbledon again.........

It is difficult to swallow and I have championed Rafa's cause, even though in my heart of hearts, the writing was on the wall.
Rafa may well change his game in the short term, he may well have minimal success, but he knows no other that to "retreat ten feet behind the base line". When the mental aspect of his game is in disarray, no coach in the world can help him. He is looking lost out there

Haddie and Boggie........ finding common cause in misery

Irony pure irony

bogbrush wrote:Haddie and Boggie........ finding common cause in misery

So where do WE go from here... can we find a player that we can both support do you think

True, Novak did marmalise him (if anything, the scoreline was flattering to Rafa), but is it possible that we're all overreacting a bit here? I mean no one can beat Novak at the moment and it's obvious that Rafa's confidence is low, so maybe we expect too much. In our assessment, I guess Rafa is a victim of his past dominance, which makes a tame QF exit at RG look a complete disaster. Murray had an equally tame QF exit at Wimby last year to a much inferior opponent, but Murray fans have had to learn to be sanguine about that sort of thing.

Murray's not a bad place to look if you want a bit of optimism. For a spell last year, he couldn't buy a win against a top ten player and now he only seems to lose to Novak.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Haddie and Boggie........ finding common cause in misery

So where do WE go from here... can we find a player that we can both support do you think

Or mutually despise!?

Speak only for your self.. dislike is my word

Not putting BB in that bracket, but I do think the more partisan Fed fans will soften their views of Nadal once it's clear he won't reach Fed's slam count. For some, hating Nadal is akin to a religion, but it will be hard to maintain the hate once Nadal is no longer a serious threat at the slams.

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Not putting BB in that bracket, but I do think the more partisan Fed fans will soften their views of Nadal once it's clear he won't reach Fed's slam count. For some, hating Nadal is akin to a religion, but it will be hard to maintain the hate once Nadal is no longer a serious threat at the slams.

Hammer/nail ??? you hit it on the head

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:Not putting BB in that bracket, but I do think the more partisan Fed fans will soften their views of Nadal once it's clear he won't reach Fed's slam count. For some, hating Nadal is akin to a religion, but it will be hard to maintain the hate once Nadal is no longer a serious threat at the slams.

I only disliked the guys tennis. And his time-wasting. And his gamesmanship.

Other than that I never had any problems with him.

Nadal said he work even harder than he has before, which of course means no wedding for Xisca, no breaks for his gangsta uncle.

agree with the comment the writing was on the wall in the sense that Nadal's poor form earlier this season foreshadowed his FO defeat, however long term predictions, especially when they are predicated on the constancy of the current situation or the historical record, tend to understimate the unpredictability of sport. fine to predict that Rafa is finished; perhaps a touch foolish to give too high a degree of certainty to that claim.

Henman Bill wrote:agree with the comment the writing was on the wall in the sense that Nadal's poor form earlier this season foreshadowed his FO defeat, however long term predictions, especially when they are predicated on the constancy of the current situation or the historical record, tend to understimate the unpredictability of sport. fine to predict that Rafa is finished; perhaps a touch foolish to give too high a degree of certainty to that claim.

He cant be finished all the time he is playing obviously, but as I and others have pointed out, his return to the top is highly unlikely. He doubtless will have some success, dropping out of the top ten will ensure him of that, he can do a lot of damage in the early rounds of any tournament. But Rafa as we know him is certainly no more; he neither has the stamina or the mental strength to haul himself up in to a position of having to win everything in order to get back up to the top. From one who is saddened and sickened at having to say it.

I don't particularly feel it's a stamina or technique issue. He still has the rpm, etc. He's simply a busted flush, too many mental miles under the bridge in overcoming one adversity to the next. Us Rafa fans know his career has been on borrowed time since 2005 when the foot bone issue arose which led to near retirement...the necessary orthotics and resulting knee issues extended his career....but at a huge price every 18 months. It's remarkable he's actually got this far.

But the injury-laden journey, more than his style of play, has eaten at his confidence and his resolve to keep coming back. It takes a Herculean effort to come back and dominate like he did 2-3 times. This is one return too many and his heart just doesn't look to be quite in it anymore...

...as Game of Throne's says "Winter is coming" and I'm afraid that's the case for Rafa. Physically and ability wise he could still be top 3 for a long time but I just don't think he wants, or rather needs, it any more. The competing mojo has gone.

lydian wrote:I don't particularly feel it's a stamina or technique issue. He still has the rpm, etc. He's simply a busted flush, too many mental miles under the bridge in overcoming one adversity to the next. Us Rafa fans know his career has been on borrowed time since 2005 when the foot bone issue arose which led to near retirement...the necessary orthotics and resulting knee issues extended his career....but at a huge price every 18 months. It's remarkable he's actually got this far.

But the injury-laden journey, more than his style of play, has eaten at his confidence and his resolve to keep coming back. It takes a Herculean effort to come back and dominate like he did 2-3 times. This is one return too many and his heart just doesn't look to be quite in it anymore...

...as Game of Throne's says "Winter is coming" and I'm afraid that's the case for Rafa. Physically and ability wise he could still be top 3 for a long time but I just don't think he wants, or rather needs, it any more. The competing mojo has gone.

Hi Lydian.. so nice to see you here... we are on the same page with this one.. sad but true..
I think like you he has given it his all, and has nothing left ..my feeling he is keeping going for his fans
But as I see he has so many other things to take up his time.. he needs to get on with the rest of his life.
I would prefer he did it sooner than later.

lydian wrote:I don't particularly feel it's a stamina or technique issue. He still has the rpm, etc. He's simply a busted flush, too many mental miles under the bridge in overcoming one adversity to the next. Us Rafa fans know his career has been on borrowed time since 2005 when the foot bone issue arose which led to near retirement...the necessary orthotics and resulting knee issues extended his career....but at a huge price every 18 months. It's remarkable he's actually got this far.

But the injury-laden journey, more than his style of play, has eaten at his confidence and his resolve to keep coming back. It takes a Herculean effort to come back and dominate like he did 2-3 times. This is one return too many and his heart just doesn't look to be quite in it anymore...

...as Game of Throne's says "Winter is coming" and I'm afraid that's the case for Rafa. Physically and ability wise he could still be top 3 for a long time but I just don't think he wants, or rather needs, it any more. The competing mojo has gone.

I agree it is the continual injury and comeback cycle that has probably worn him down mentally. I do think though that his style of play makes it harder as you get older and also in dealing with the injuries. I think to play like he does he has to be in top mental and physical condition at least against the better players. And right now he doesn't have the mojo as you put it.

Nice that you are back and good to hear from you. I do think though that he simply is not as dangerous hitting that FH when pulled wide and to me that means that he is probably getting there a split second late. I haven't seen too many of those vintage Nadal passing shots out from the doubles alley usually he just meekly hits it in the net now when pushed to cover that corner.

He's more into poker now than Tennis anyway. As soon as I saw the advert with him playing poker you knew it would come to this

What about his golf, his restaurants, his hotels, his modelling, his tennis school... none of it I believe will compensate him for the loss of his tennis career.. but he will live with it Im sure helped by Xisca

Poker is very addictive and is a mental strategy game much like tennis.

It also takes up alot of practise time, if he does tennis at day and poker at night it can take your energy down. He has looked not very energetic

I think it is purely another string to his bow.. Rafa has many facets to his personality I doubt somehow that poker how ever good he is, along with that of backgammon, will come high on the list other than another one of his many hobbies.
He certainly will not need to play for money.

Haddie-nuff wrote:He certainly will not need to play for money.

Or glory, or fame, or records...he's pretty much done it all. There's only one guy above him and even that's still very much up for debate.

I feel like we underestimate how hard it is for these top players to keep going once they've shattered all records. Federer ground to a halt after reaching the summit, and now Nadal has so few records to aim at that it must be tough to get up with the same intensity every morning. Novak may well be the same in a few years if he continues to run down many records and achievements above him. That hunger and motivation is so damn hard to keep stoked, especially as your priorities change with age. Time with family is a huge one.

What Fedal have done is remarkable, the same as many record-breakers before them. I have no idea how either of them keep getting onto those practice courts and hitting hundreds of tennis balls when they have literally nothing to prove anymore. It was Federer who said some years ago that he dislikes discussing the GOAT debate because it's so hard to compare eras, and it's easier for the modern players due to having so many records and statistics to pursue. I feel like there's wisdom in those words. Laver never really had that luxury - at least, not in the same way. Who do you chase when you reach the peak? Where does the motivation come from? Pro sportsmen blow my mind.

Its a drug. Adrenalin is akin to morphine. The body becomes addicted. Their daily fix !! So too is the adulation. I dare anyone to say that hearing thousands of people chanting your name is not a huge stimulant.
How many top entertainers have retired only to come back a year or so later. To have spent so many years in the limelight and then turn your back must be the most difficult thing for them to do

Of all the theories about Rafas prospects, I can't convince myself that excessive poker is a factor.

It is also a real possibility that Rafa is past his best. Players peak and fade at different ages so it is plausible. Rafa was successful at an earlier age than Roger but his level has dipped earlier than Federer. Novak Djokovic may surpass Roger for longevity at the top - who knows?

Whatever happens they have lived their dream. That's something not many are able to achieve. They will be in history books record books and on the lips  of tennis lovers for years to come . Having made their fortune in the process.. not such a bad legacy. Their life is not over just starting a new one

Haddie-nuff wrote:Whatever happens they have lived their dream. That's something not many are able to achieve. They will be in history books record books and on the lips  of tennis lovers for years to come . Having made their fortune in the process.. not such a bad legacy. Their life is not over just starting a new one

Spot on Haddie and I cannot see anyone ever matching Rafa's feat of winning the same slam nine times.

He plays poker? Somehow I cant see him in a Shane Warne style poker advert...

Hes not done yet, but a 10th RG is still something he could realistically acheive. To me, he stopped tennis becoming what the womens game has become, hes one half of the greatest ever duo. Hes earned the right to ply it out as long and easy as he likes

Im not aware that anyone is talking of rights ..and we have not said otherwise.. but there are those of us who do not have such expectations
only hopes

Silver wrote:Laver never really had that luxury - at least, not in the same way. Who do you chase when you reach the peak? Where does the motivation come from? Pro sportsmen blow my mind.

Laver played for two reasons, love of the sport, and great peers. His generation of Australians were dominant for years, and despite rivalries, motivated each other to find greater heights in the sport. Emerson was also a peer, despite not being given recognition, like Rosewall or Fraser or Newcombe had.

McEnroe 'lost' Borg and was never the same. Federer may also be the same, if Nadal walks away.

Look at Bartoli, one slam, and she retired. That was her goal.

I defer to your greater knowledge, LF. I was mostly talking about records and statistics, but having contemporaries to push you on is certainly a good motivator.

Federer and Nadal are still dangerous. No one wants either of them in his draw. But I do think their Slam days are over.

They have spoiled us. Somehow Djokovic vs Murray doesn't have the same electricity. For me, their styles are too similar whereas the Two greatest players brought contrasting styles.

I do not expect Rafa giving up just yet. He was talking about his new racquet for the new season - to me that sounds like someone who is trying to have multiple strong seasons ahead of him.

Hell what do I know.........

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/06/djokovic-nadal-im-sure-hes-going-bounce-back/55173/#.VXOvnpVFBjo

Silver wrote:I defer to your greater knowledge, LF. I was mostly talking about records and statistics, but having contemporaries to push you on is certainly a good motivator.

Longer memory time frame is not necessarily greater knowledge. . SoCal's constant references to wee keira circa (1999-2002) lacked Djokovic and Murray, but there were Hewitt (remember the 3x100 club that YvonneT wrote), Safin, Gonzalez, Baghdatis were pretty good motivators. Even Agassi was a great motivator (from Hell and Back).

Wawrinka's forehand has ancestry in Norman's and Soderling's. Past is also a great motivator. Federer's service motion supposedly mimics Pancho's. Nadal modeled his serve after Murray's first serve per UT.

BTW, it is great to see Murray v Djokovic (#1 v future #2) as Fedal walk away into pages of Tennis history. They [D & M] are only a few months apart, so they will be peers till they retire barring injuries.

coolpixel wrote:Federer and Nadal are still dangerous. No one wants either of them in his draw. But I do think their Slam days are over.

They have spoiled us. Somehow Djokovic vs Murray doesn't have the same electricity. For me, their styles are too similar whereas the Two greatest players brought contrasting styles.

Good to 'hear' from you CP. It would be wonderful to see a W in Federer's and a RG in Nadal's trophy chest, if possible, before they walk away.

LF, I doubt that will happen now.. But we can dream

I very much agree with lydian's train of thought. I don't believe that the decline is a result of just physical issue alone. It's not upcoming youngsters that are surpassing his physical strength. Mentally you can see he's fried. He simply just doesn't believe and you can see that in the conviction of his shot making. That interview in Miami was telling. No Clay Masters titles going into Roland Garros which is a first for him and I think then people saw the writing on the wall and the way he went down to Djokovic. Usually seeing Nadal opposite on a court at RG would be enough to win him a match, now that invincibility has been shattered, the feat factor of facing him on Clay has vanished.

Where he goes from here? For years we have heard those say he has the ability to adapt his game. Let's see end of year whether he can and whether he is working on adapting his game. The hunter has become the hunted.

It's hard to know for sure and there may be something behind the scenes that comes out years later but I tend to agree with Lydian.

When you hear Rafa making comments like "you can expect to see me losing a lot more from now on" and "I'm not the favourite for anything" and so on, while they are in keeping with his typical attitude of downplaying his chances to take the pressure off, they seem slightly more defeatist.

The mind is very important. If I had to guess, I'd guess that somehow his decline is more rooted in mind than body, technique or tactics.

Well I have said for a while it is a combination of a lack of self-belief, confidence and consistency. I suppose the key is consistency - if he can find a degree of that at a high standard of play then the other traits will return. However, to beat the very best players you need to start beating them as often as possible in even the smaller tournaments to build up self-belief in those crunch match-ups.