Wimbledon seeds

Seeding for The Championships 2015

















GENTLEMEN’S SINGLES

1 DJOKOVIC, Novak (SRB)
2 FEDERER, Roger (SUI)
3 MURRAY, Andy (GBR)
4 WAWRINKA, Stan (SUI)
5 NISHIKORI, Kei (JPN)
6 BERDYCH, Tomas (CZE)
7 RAONIC, Milos (CAN)
8 FERRER, David (ESP)
9 CILIC, Marin (CRO)
10 NADAL, Rafael (ESP)
11 DIMITROV, Grigor (BUL)
12 SIMON, Gilles (FRA)
13 TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried (FRA)
14 ANDERSON, Kevin (RSA)
15 LOPEZ, Feliciano (ESP)
16 GOFFIN, David (BEL)
17 ISNER, John (USA)
18 MONFILS, Gael (FRA)
19 ROBREDO, Tommy (ESP)
20 BAUTISTA AGUT, Roberto (ESP)
21 GASQUET, Richard (FRA)
22 TROICKI, Viktor (SRB)
23 KARLOVIC, Ivo (CRO)
24 MAYER, Leonardo (ARG)
25 SEPPI, Andreas (ITA)
26 KYRGIOS, Nick (AUS)
27 TOMIC, Bernard (AUS)
28 CUEVAS, Pablo (URU)
29 GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo (ESP)
30 FOGNINI, Fabio (ITA)
31 SOCK, Jack (USA)
32 THIEM, Dominic (AUT)

Never thought I would see the day I would call Nadal a dangerous floater!

Hmm I'd heard Tsonga and Monfils have been ruled out of Wimbledon due to injuries. Maybe I heard wrong.

9-16 - to avoid would be Nadal, Tsonga & Dimitrov. Perhaps Anderson or Goffin.
17-32 - to avoid would be Troicki, Kyrgios & Sock. Perhaps Thiem.

Can I just check that I have a right understanding of the way the draw works for the seeds:

1 and 2 are placed in separate halves
3 and 4 are drawn into a half each to be the seeded SF opponents of 1 and 2.
Seeds 5 to 8 are drawn to be the seeded QF opponents of 1-4
Seeds 9-12 are drawn to play seeds 5 to 8 in the 4th round
Seeds 13-16 are drawn to play seeds 1 to 4 in the 4th round
Seeds 17 to 24 are drawn to play seeds 9 to 16 in round 3
Seeds 25 to 32 are drawn to play seeds 1 to 8 in round 3.

As such, Rafa dropping to 10th (rather than between 5 and 8) makes little difference to the top 4, as he can't meet them until the quarters.

Also, a quick comparison with the ATP rankings shows that the grass court weighting have had the following effects:
Raonic swapping with Ferrer at 7 and 8 (no substantial change to the draw)
Simon swapping with Tsonga at 12 and 13. Has some impact, as Tsonga can now be a 4th round opponent for the top 4 rather than QF.
Lopez swapping with Goffin at 15 and 16. No substantial change to the draw.

More changes from 20 downwards:
Bautista-Agut up 2
Gasquet down 1
Troicki and Dr Ivo up 2
Mayer down 4
Seppi up 2
Kyrgios up 3
Tomic down 1
Cuevas down 5
Garcia-Lopez up 3
Fognini down 2
Sock not moved
Thiem down 2

Probably the most significant change in this is Karlovic being raised into the top 24, so he can't now be a 3rd round opponent of the top 8. I suspect the top guys are quite happy to see that, especially as it is a clay specialist in Cuevas who has dropped down to replace him.

Potential dangers to the top 8 in R3 are Kyrgios, Tomic and perhaps Sock.

So let's play a game of already picking what is the worst draw - or at least what is the worst pick for each segment of seeds. This might ease up the inevitable talk about "X has the worst draw" that will come up.

Ranking from Worst (toughest) opponent to easiest.
bracket 1-2: Djokovic - Federer
bracket 2-3: Murray - Wawrinka
bracket 4-8: Berdych - Raonic - Nishikori - Ferrer (is Nishikori injured?)
bracket 9-16: Nadal - Tsonga - Cilic - Simon - Dimitrov - Anderson - Goffin - Lopez
bracket 17-32 (picking 8 should be enough): Sock - Troicki - Kyrgios - Seppi - Monfils - Thiem - Isner - Gasquet

Or rather to pick the worst and best draw possible for each big 4 (adding non seeds if you will): R32 - R16 - QF - SF

Djokovic:
Worst: Sock - Tsonga - Nishikori/Berdych - Murray
Best: Gasquet - Dimitrov - Ferrer - Wawrinka

Federer:
Worst: Seppi - Nadal - Berdych - Murray
Best: Karlovic/GGL - Lopez - Ferrer - Wawrinka

Murray:
Worst: Sock - Tsonga - Nishikori/Berdych - Djoko
Best: Gasquet - Dimitrov - Ferrer - Federer

Nadal:
Worst: Sock - Djokovic/Murray - Berdych - Murray/Djokovic (or is there some 9-12 protection so they play 5-8 at most in R16?
Best: Robredo - Ferrer - Federer - Wawrinka

(Gasquet and Dimitrov could play well again, but against big names I'd expect them to crumble)

Djokovic and Murray being big favourites with always a question mark on Federer (if the draw can open up to avoid playing Murray and Djoko in a row). Just like Nadal at RG, impossible to write him off yet!

dummy_half, according to the BBC, Nadal "could face one of the leading contenders in the last 16."
So I don't think the draw is worked out the way you suggested.

I've always read it as. You're protected from the top 16, until the round of 16

JuliusHMarx wrote:dummy_half, according to the BBC, Nadal "could face one of the leading contenders in the last 16."
So I don't think the draw is worked out the way you suggested.

nah, I think DH has it right, so the BBC have probably got it wrong. Seeds 9-12 play seeds 5-8 in R4, so Nadal being outside the top 8 makes very little difference really.


Tsonga swapping with Simon makes it interesting. Tsonga could be a very tricky R4 opponent if he's playing well. However, we're really not sure where he's at right now, and Simon had a good tournament at Queens (knocked out Raonic, lost to Anderson in three sets in QF) so...

Toughest opponents for the top 3 seeds are definitely: Kyrgios, Tsonga (if on form), then QF much of a muchness, you might prefer Ferrer who's not as his best on grass and does seem on the wane this year (against the top guys).

Not sure I agree about Gasquet being the easiest R3 draw, OK he matches up poorly to Djokovic in particular, but he's still got decent grass court pedigree, so I would definitely prefer someone like Cuevas.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:
Not sure I agree about Gasquet being the easiest R3 draw, OK he matches up poorly to Djokovic in particular, but he's still got decent grass court pedigree, so I would definitely prefer someone like Cuevas.

It's also that I don't know so much about some of the other players, like Cuevas: no idea what he's worth on Grass. One thing about Gasquet is that Djoko and Murray know him well, so no surprise there and he's not the kind to play a match out this world like Goffin or Monfils could, for example. I'd always fear the dark horse more than the known decent player (even though things can change at a later age)

biugo wrote:So let's play a game of already picking what is the worst draw - or at least what is the worst pick for each segment of seeds. This might ease up the inevitable talk about "X has the worst draw" that will come up.

Ranking from Worst (toughest) opponent to easiest.
bracket 1-2: Djokovic - Federer
bracket 2-3: Murray - Wawrinka
bracket 4-8: Berdych - Raonic - Nishikori - Ferrer (is Nishikori injured?)
bracket 9-16: Nadal - Tsonga - Cilic - Simon - Dimitrov - Anderson - Goffin - Lopez
bracket 17-32 (picking 8 should be enough): Sock - Troicki - Kyrgios - Seppi - Monfils - Thiem - Isner - Gasquet

Or rather to pick the worst and best draw possible for each big 4 (adding non seeds if you will): R32 - R16 - QF - SF

Djokovic:
Worst: Sock - Tsonga - Nishikori/Berdych - Murray
Best: Gasquet - Dimitrov - Ferrer - Wawrinka

Federer:
Worst: Seppi - Nadal - Berdych - Murray
Best: Karlovic/GGL - Lopez - Ferrer - Wawrinka

Murray:
Worst: Sock - Tsonga - Nishikori/Berdych - Djoko
Best: Gasquet - Dimitrov - Ferrer - Federer

Nadal:
Worst: Sock - Djokovic/Murray - Berdych - Murray/Djokovic (or is there some 9-12 protection so they play 5-8 at most in R16?
Best: Robredo - Ferrer - Federer - Wawrinka

(Gasquet and Dimitrov could play well again, but against big names I'd expect them to crumble)

Djokovic and Murray being big favourites with always a question mark on Federer (if the draw can open up to avoid playing Murray and Djoko in a row). Just like Nadal at RG, impossible to write him off yet!

Kygrios would be the worst draw 17-32 for anyone I think. He's got grass pedigree after last year and has proven he won't crumble against the big names.
Probably the most likely to blast a top player off court.

Guest82 wrote:
Kygrios would be the worst draw 17-32 for anyone I think.  He's got grass pedigree after last year and has proven he won't crumble against the big names.
Probably the most likely to blast a top player off court.

Thanks I didn't realize he was a fast court threat (I never know what to really expect with the young ones). I hope he makes a couple upsets then!

As I noted above, the seeding groups are not quite as simple as Buigo has listed.

From the perspective of the top 4, they can face:
R3 - Seeds 25 to 32
R4 - Seeds 13 to 24
QF - Seeds 5 to 12 or 17 to 32
SF and F anyone.

Toughest draw:
R3: Kyrgios (and maybe Tomic if he's got his head right)
R4: Tsonga / Anderson
QF: Hard to call. Perhaps Berdy or Raonic has the best grass court pedigree, but on current form* I don't see any of these guys really troubling Djokovic or Murray.

*Noting that form can be a remarkably transient thing, and if Rafa suddenly rediscovers his, things get a lot more difficult.

The draw will be on Friday. According to the Bleacher report, at 5am US Eastern time. That would make 1am Pacific US time, 9am UK, 10am Europe.

The Bleacher report offers http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/interactive/index.html for live stream, although when you click on it it mentions live streaming from 29th June, with no mention of the draw yet.

Current odds (per William Hill) :

Djokovic  5/4

Murray    5/2

Federer   6/1

Nadal      12/1

Wawrinka 14/1

All others 25/1 or below

Just sayin.........

I might as well hope for a snow interruption at Wimby I know but wouldn't it  make for  an interesting fortnight if Rafa could find his form?.

Cant stop me dreamin

Well I for one will definitely be having a sneaky wager on him.

I consider the 12/1 as very generous. He will not want to end the year without a Slam and I think we can expect a determined effort here at Wimbledon and then at the USO. Form can return surprisingly quickly......

lags72 wrote:Well I for one will definitely be having a sneaky wager on him.

I consider the 12/1 as very generous. He will not want to end the year without a Slam and I think we can expect a determined effort here at Wimbledon and then at the USO. Form can return surprisingly quickly......

Unless you know the weather's going to be cold and dry, then why would you waste your money. Rafa is now vulnerable to any big serving hard hitter and anyone decent with variety

Also I assume he didn't put up a "determined effort" in his last few tournies then?

And you're right he won't want to end the year without a slam - but neither does Roger who's only one one of the last twenty-odd

We've got to stop thinking that these players have some kind of superpower. They don't. And thank goodness as it shows that they are like all humans, vulnerable and can have bad spells at any time

For me I'll boldly state that it's Murray's to lose.

No excuses if he doesn't win (unless it's injury). His fitness is even better than it was when he won his slams and there's a cocky swagger to his game.

Loved the way he just smirkingly nodded at one of Anderson's thunderbolt serves in that kind of 'bring it on' attitude that the best have

banbrotam wrote:

lags72 wrote:Well I for one will definitely be having a sneaky wager on him.

I consider the 12/1 as very generous. He will not want to end the year without a Slam and I think we can expect a determined effort here at Wimbledon and then at the USO. Form can return surprisingly quickly......

....................................................................

And you're right he won't want to end the year without a slam - but neither does Roger who's only one one of the last twenty-odd

We've got to stop thinking that these players have some kind of superpower. They don't. And thank goodness as it shows that they are like all humans, vulnerable and can have bad spells at any time

Oh sure, all the top-ranked guys go into Slams in the belief that they can win. But equally, I think there's a big difference in Federer's own realistic expectations today as compared to his prime years. Nobody in the open era has ever won Wimbledon at his sort of age (in fact you have to go back well over 40 years for such an old winner at ANY Slam).

But for Rafa, still below 30, I think a return to form is much more important in the context of his career & legacy.

As for Murray ...... I fully agree. He is the man of the moment, playing the best grass tennis in the run-up, full of confidence and for me is more of a favourite than Djokovic.

Henman Bill wrote:The draw will be on Friday. According to the Bleacher report, at 5am US Eastern time. That would make 1am Pacific US time, 9am UK, 10am Europe.

The Bleacher report offers http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/interactive/index.html for live stream, although when you click on it it mentions live streaming from 29th June, with no mention of the draw yet.

Henman Bill, I think you have your times slightly wrong. It is 5 hours difference between the East Coast in the States and the UK so 5am Eastern Time is 2am Pacific US time, 10am UK time and 11am in Central Europe

In response to Dummy Half's query above with regards to placing of seeded positions 9 through 16.

FORMERLY - it was very specific with seeds 9 through 16.
Seeds #15 & #16 - would be drawn against #1 or#2
Seeds #13 & #14 - would be drawn against #3 or #4
Seeds #11 & #12 - would be drawn against #5 or #6
Seeds #9 & #10 - would be drawn against #7 or #8

I don't remember when off the top of my head, it's quite a few years ago now, but the men, changed to match the women, so that the positioning of the seeds 9 through 16 are drawn randomly.

Once the top 8 seeds have been positioned, seeds 9 through 16 are drawn in random, and placed against seeds 1 through 8, as they come out of the "hat."

It makes for a much better "mixing up" of that 2nd "rung" of seeds. Previously it was ALWAYS the #15 and #16 who faced the #1 and #2, and so on down the seeds.

Nah, seeds 9-12 are drawn to meet seeds 5-8 in R4; seeds 13-16 are drawn to meet 1-4 in R4. Check the actual draw.