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US Open Qualifiers and Draw

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Post by YvonneT Tue 25 Aug 2015, 11:14 pm

First topic message reminder :

Qualifying rounds taking place today and the following 3 days in New York. Vicky Duval won her first match on her return from treatment for cancer, and 16 year old CiCi Bellis beat 44 year old Kimiko Date Krumm.

The main draws are on Thursday. Seeding for the men follows the rankings as no withdrawals so:
1 Djokovic, Novak SRB
2 Federer, Roger SUI
3 Murray, Andy GBR
4 Nishikori, Kei JPN
------
5 Wawrinka, Stan SUI
6 Berdych, Tomas CZE
7 Ferrer, David ESP
8 Nadal, Rafael ESP
------
9 Cilic, Marin CRO
10 Raonic, Milos CAN
11 Simon, Gilles FRA
12 Gasquet, Richard FRA

13 Isner, John USA
14 Goffin, David BEL
15 Anderson, Kevin RSA
16 Monfils, Gael FRA
------
17 Dimitrov, Grigor BUL
18 Lopez, Feliciano ESP
19 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried FRA
20 Thiem, Dominic AUT
21 Karlovic, Ivo CRO
22 Troicki, Viktor SRB
23 Bautista Agut, Roberto ESP
24 Tomic, Bernard AUS

25 Seppi, Andreas ITA
26 Robredo, Tommy ESP
27 Chardy, Jeremy FRA
28 Sock, Jack USA
29 Kohlschreiber, Philipp GER
30 Bellucci, Thomaz BRA
31 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo ESP
32 Fognini, Fabio ITA

Top 4 draw 25-32 in R3, 13-16 in R4, 5-8  in QF. What draw would you like to see or like to avoid for any of the top contenders?

Easiest route for any of 1-4 looks like R3 Belluci, R4 Goffin, QF Ferrer
Toughest maybe R3 Chardy, R4 Monfils, QF Wawrinka

Lurking unseeded are Dolgopolov, Kyrgios along with big servers such as Muller, Querrey, Groth. Any others to avoid?

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Post by Jahu Thu 27 Aug 2015, 5:32 pm

Murray will crush Korgi who seems to be a voyeur of how others have sex Laugh

Not bad draw for Djoko, bit harder for Fed, but last years it showed that when others play good, they don't care for the top 4 seeds.
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Post by temporary21 Thu 27 Aug 2015, 5:47 pm

What a horrid draw for Both Murray Nick and Roger!
Nasty Nick would have wanted an easy start to put his troubles behind him, and Murray has no room for a slow start.
Roger doesnt get to avoid Murray, he doesnt even get Wawrinka to tire Novak out.
Novaks looks great, and Rafa has a nice chance of a quarter final, which must be considered a good result for him.

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Post by Danny_1982 Thu 27 Aug 2015, 5:50 pm

Wawrinka, Federer, Djokovic...

If it goes according to seeding, Murray would have to play the only other 3 I consider genuine contenders for the title. I think Murray needs help to win this. He needs someone else to take care of one of these guys.

Good draw for Novak.

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Post by temporary21 Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:28 pm

Some good old fashioned roads to the title
Screech from Saved By the Bell
1)Souza not the Portugese guy
2)Posposil
3)Seppi
4)Goffin, RBA
Q)Nadal, Raonic
SF)Nishi
F)Fed, Murray, Wawrinka

Dont see any biggies there, gets the best advantage


That one guy From Mallojca whos not Carlos Moya
1)Coric (!)
2)Schwartzman
3)Fognini (!)
4)Raonic, Lopez, Verdasco
Q)Novak
SF) Nish
F) Lots of people

If I were a man inclined to waste my money on betting, i'd put it on Coric.

That Swiss guy, the one with the one handed backhand ,but also wears a bandana
1) Leonardo Mayer
2) Baghdatis
3)Kohlscreiber, Rosol
4)Isner, Karlovic (bleh!)
Q)Gassy, Tomic, Berdych
SF) Angry Scottish bloke
F) Screech
Eh, should make it to at least the final 4, 3rd and 4th rounds arent very nice... Gets no advantage really from the draw.
Not Tim Henman
1) Kygios
2)Mannarino
3)Belluci or James Ward!
4) Thiem or Anderson
Q) Wawrinka or Simon Giles
S)Headband bloke, Swiss
F)Screechy
well, hell be sharp by the Final! If a bit legless...


Bonus round
Lleyton Hewitt and Tomic both have relative unknowns to meet  in the second round

Fish takes on an Italian ive never heard of, chance for a farewell win.

Oh yeah, did I mention Coric v Nadal...

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Post by bogbrush Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:34 pm

Rafa looks to be toast. He could lose almost anywhere there.

I'll put it down now: win this and it's the greatest achievement of his career.
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Post by Henman Bill Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:37 pm

Well the BBC headlining with Murray's first round opponent actually is justified for once.

Not a good draw for either.

Coric not a great draw for Nadal. Should win, but you never know when a young player is going to go up a level all of a sudden.

For once I plan to tune it for round 1 since the usually boring first round matches for the big guys look decent, Federer too has some interesting early opponents.

Djokovic getting a few easy draws this year. Kind of befitting his #1 status, so not complaining, although I recall Socal complaining about rigged draws and me exposing that argument as well as saying it would even out over time, which it certainly has with this year.

Thanks temp 21 great job there by posting the routes to the final.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:39 pm

Schwartzman is the classic player who we never hear anything from except turning up at a slam to lose to one of the big guys in round 2. He's no threat.

But the rest of that Rafa draw..yikes, it's a toughie! My prediction that he will lose in rounds 3, 4 or QF looks solid after that draw.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:45 pm

Murray's draw looks tough, but the bookies rate it OK, his odds barely changing and 7-2 being most common.

Nadal's odds got slightly longer, but not much, and Djokovic's shortened, but very little.

Federer is mostly up from 9-2 to 4 perhaps mostly due to his quarter final draw.

Not many players odds changed after the draw. Federer perhaps the most but not that much. Suggesting the bookies/market see it as a fair draw.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:47 pm

Actually Nadal moved more than I thought, his average odds going from 18 to maybe around 23. So actually the bookies have recognized Nadal as having the hardest draw.

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Post by Guest Thu 27 Aug 2015, 6:55 pm

Will try and digest this draw.

Wonder if Djokovic is dining out on a socal gooey cupcake? chin

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Post by TRuffin Thu 27 Aug 2015, 7:17 pm

So much for all the talk about what a blessing it was for fed to get back #2- So he wouldn't have to face Murray and Novak. Smh

I guess we will never see a fed/nadal us open match-at least one worth seeing

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Post by Guest Thu 27 Aug 2015, 8:04 pm

Well Slams are runs and not sprints. I think whoever navigates the early rounds with minimum disruption is likely to have a better chance at latter stages.

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Post by bogbrush Thu 27 Aug 2015, 9:30 pm

Novak goes from favourite to red-hot.

Federer just needs to plug away and pray for some miracles.

Murray can't ease in at all

Nadal must have run over a cat. Talk about kicking a man when he's down.
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Post by Guest Thu 27 Aug 2015, 9:32 pm

Well I am waiting for someone to label his draw as the toughest Wink

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Post by Guest82 Thu 27 Aug 2015, 10:29 pm

Anyone think they maybe rigged the Murray v Kyrgios draw? Get rid of Kyrgios early on?

Out of the traditional big four I'd say their draws rank like this (easy to hard)
Djokovic
Federer
Murray (not bad after round one, up until qf)
Nadal - as stated earlier, could lose anytime

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Post by summerblues Fri 28 Aug 2015, 1:39 am

First round against Kyrgios is not so bad. Andy should win it, and he may even learn who his wife is sleeping with.

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Post by summerblues Fri 28 Aug 2015, 1:44 am

Good draw for Novak, not so much for Andy, Roger and Rafa. For Roger to have any chance, at least one of Andy and Nole has to lose early (but not Nole to Rafa, as that would not help Roger the least bit).

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Post by bogbrush Fri 28 Aug 2015, 8:27 am

summerblues wrote:First round against Kyrgios is not so bad.  Andy should win it, and he may even learn who his wife is sleeping with.
drumroll
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Post by bogbrush Fri 28 Aug 2015, 8:28 am

summerblues wrote:Good draw for Novak, not so much for Andy, Roger and Rafa.  For Roger to have any chance, at least one of Andy and Nole has to lose early (but not Nole to Rafa, as that would not help Roger the least bit).
Yeah, it would. But that's not going to happen.
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Post by HM Murdock Fri 28 Aug 2015, 9:26 am

About as good a draw as it gets for Novak, a stinker for Murray and Rafa, tough-but-not-insurmountable for Federer.

Although we've all been watching tennis long enough to know that how difficult or easy a draw looks in advance doesn't always match how difficult or easy it ends up being.

I don't think I totally agree with those saying Federer needs one of Novak or Andy to fall early. I don't think Fed's chances against Novak in a final really fall much if he plays Andy in the semi. If the semi ends up being a long war, then yes, his chances will fall somewhat. But Fed tends not to get involved in long wars.

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Post by Guest82 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 9:31 am

HM Murdock wrote:About as good a draw as it gets for Novak, a stinker for Murray and Rafa, tough-but-not-insurmountable for Federer.

Although we've all been watching tennis long enough to know that how difficult or easy a draw looks in advance doesn't always match how difficult or easy it ends up being.

I don't think I totally agree with those saying Federer needs one of Novak or Andy to fall early. I don't think Fed's chances against Novak in a final really fall much if he plays Andy in the semi. If the semi ends up being a long war, then yes, his chances will fall somewhat. But Fed tends not to get involved in long wars.

I think Murray has an ok draw. Kyrgios is about as tough as it gets first round, but he's beaten him fairly convincingly at two slams already this season. I suspect their games don't match up too favourably for Kyrgios.

Once he's through that then it should be plain sailing until QF, but we all know Stan is liable to an early rounds exit.

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Post by Guest Fri 28 Aug 2015, 9:38 am

Depends which Novak shows up HM. You look at the 2 finals recently and I know it's different format, but I agree if Novak's head goes down early should they meet then Federer does have a great chance. Many will point to winning 3 sets is more difficult than winning 2 for Federer against Djokovic.

For Andy given his schedule of late, it does make me wonder if physically he has it to go 7 BO5 and who shows up in his draw. All he needs is a scrappy 5 setter in the legs and that will limit his chances should Wawrinka/Federer wait late on with Djokovic beyond that.

I feel a bit underwhelmed I guess. Looking at the major finals this year including the Masters 1000. Out of the 10 finals this year there has been 5 different players contesting them. I know I long for change and last year's USO Final was a bit of a damp squib. It didn't quite have a captivating feel about it.

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Post by HM Murdock Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:11 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:Many will point to winning 3 sets is more difficult than winning 2 for Federer against Djokovic.
On this surface, definitely.

At Cincy, I think they could have played all day and Novak might not have taken a set! But a slower surface and slower balls really neuter so much of Federer's best game.

At this early stage, I would rate Federer v Murray as not far off 50/50 but maybe slightly in Murray's favour. So let's say 55/45 to Murray.

But with the big proviso that Novak has his serve back in working order, I think Fed will find that match up much tougher on that surface. I see it as perhaps 70/30 in Novak's favour. Federer knows how to unpick the lock when Novak goes into lockdown mode but I don't think this court gives him the tools to it.

I reserve the right to amend that view once I've seen them play a few matches though! If Novak is still struggling with his serve, then I think Federer should be very optimistic.

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Post by Jahu Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:41 am

Nadal has refused to play a match with Korgi for Nike showdown with their sponsored players.

Good boy thumbsup
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Post by Guest Fri 28 Aug 2015, 11:26 am

He did?

My spidey senses tell me a thread by HE advocating Nadal for the Stefan Edberg Award is coming!

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Post by Jahu Fri 28 Aug 2015, 11:28 am

Yeah, http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/08/28/11/10/tennis-champ-rafael-nadal-refuses-to-play-with-nick-kyrgios-at-charity-event

Now he is abusing some young girl at the back and pinching Sharapovas butt from behind since she is single now, Dimi fuming at the end Laugh

HE is the Master Analysis Genius.
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Post by Guest Fri 28 Aug 2015, 11:31 am

So when did the rest happen? Or was that what you would do if you were Kyrgios? chin

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Post by Jahu Fri 28 Aug 2015, 11:38 am

Have I become that transparent? Got to tweak a little my skills, or get another user name picard

(yes)
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Post by HM Murdock Fri 28 Aug 2015, 11:42 am

http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/08/28/11/10/tennis-champ-rafael-nadal-refuses-to-play-with-nick-kyrgios-at-charity-event

If someone told me that one of the eleven people in this photo was a bit of a n0b and I had to guess who it was, I'd definitely pick Kyrgios.

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Post by slashermcguirk Fri 28 Aug 2015, 12:50 pm

Hope Murray crushes Kyrgios!

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Post by Jahu Fri 28 Aug 2015, 12:51 pm

The good thing now is, that most of older guard of players will ignore Korgi, and try to crush him on the court, just to give him a senior lesson.

Super.
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Post by temporary21 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 2:51 pm

Not sure Nicks in the right place right now to offer a big challenge, would he even get picked for Davis cup right now?

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Post by Henman Bill Fri 28 Aug 2015, 3:23 pm

As a Federer fan, I hope (if he even reaches the semi final) he plays Djokovic and Murray and I hope they are both on top of their game.

I mean, what does it add to Federer's legacy to add 1 more slam because one of his major opponents suffered an early defeat and another was tired and he was just the last man standing - once again. Not a lot.

If Rosol and Soderling can beat Nadal, if Warwinka can win the French Open, if Ivanisevic can winn Wimbledon as a wildcard, if Cilic can win the US Open, then Federer can surely beat Djokovic and Murray back to back.

Sport is about dreams and magic. Let's hope all players play their best.

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Post by HM Murdock Fri 28 Aug 2015, 3:48 pm

Henman Bill wrote:As a Federer fan, I hope (if he even reaches the semi final) he plays Djokovic and Murray and I hope they are both on top of their game.

I mean, what does it add to Federer's legacy to add 1 more slam because one of his major opponents suffered an early defeat and another was tired and he was just the last man standing - once again. Not a lot.

If Rosol and Soderling can beat Nadal, if Warwinka can win the French Open, if Ivanisevic can winn Wimbledon as a wildcard, if Cilic can win the US Open, then Federer can surely beat Djokovic and Murray back to back.

Sport is about dreams and magic. Let's hope all players play their best.
Fabulous post.

The man's legacy is assured. He could never win another match between now and the end of his career and his achievements would still remain at the extremes of what seems possible.

Why hope for an easier route to boost a number which changes nothing when the possibility of something truly special remains viable?

Same for Andy and Novak. Let them earn their spurs against a Federer at his buccaneering, creative, accurate best.

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Post by temporary21 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 3:58 pm

Aye that is a fabulous point.
I would like Nishikori to win, I always like seeing good players get their due, and what a boost for the sport a Japanese win would be.

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Post by bogbrush Fri 28 Aug 2015, 4:02 pm

I sort of agree, except if he plays them both here at the top of their games he loses decisively. No ifs or buts, no chance at all - he simply dies out there.
If this were Cincy level surface I'd got along with the idea it but on this surface at best he has a shot at either/or (so why not have that as a fitting challenge?) but not both.
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Post by kingraf Fri 28 Aug 2015, 4:08 pm

A Nadal win looks a ways away. But still, at 39-1, I'm gonna nibble. Can't go any worse than the apparently safe markets went for me this week.
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Post by temporary21 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 4:39 pm

Wow. That's amazing odds. You only need to risk 3 quid to make over a 100!

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Post by Calder106 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 5:01 pm

Henman Bill wrote:As a Federer fan, I hope (if he even reaches the semi final) he plays Djokovic and Murray and I hope they are both on top of their game.

I mean, what does it add to Federer's legacy to add 1 more slam because one of his major opponents suffered an early defeat and another was tired and he was just the last man standing - once again. Not a lot.

If Rosol and Soderling can beat Nadal, if Warwinka can win the French Open, if Ivanisevic can winn Wimbledon as a wildcard, if Cilic can win the US Open, then Federer can surely beat Djokovic and Murray back to back.

Sport is about dreams and magic. Let's hope all players play their best.

Would hope that is the case whoever goes on to win. However would it be recognised as such ? The forum always seems to find reasons for players losing when they lose to their big rivals (I'm talking about all the top guys here). As long as they are healthy when they meet then that should be the criteria. The rest is on who plays better on the day.

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Post by greengoblin Fri 28 Aug 2015, 5:34 pm

Finally, we'll find out the identity of the father of Kim's child. Maybe Bjorkman?

On a sad note, looks like we won't get the long waited for fed - nadal match at the us open. If nadal had managed to get the final in 07 and 09 I think fed would have won. It would have been interesting this year. Out of sorts Nadal against pensioner Fed.


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Post by temporary21 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 7:21 pm

and If Roger had taken any of the mp's in 2010 or 2011 too, you'd have had it odds on of 2-2 between them there.

Those were the only opportunities for a real good match as it turns out.

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Post by CaledonianCraig Fri 28 Aug 2015, 7:52 pm

From Murray's point of view he couldn't have got a tougher 1st Round draw but I am very confident he will come through. He has Kyrgios worked out as the head-to-head shows and it is such a tricky match that Murray will have no option of playing his way into the tournament in third gear which I feel often hinders him later on.
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Post by Henman Bill Fri 28 Aug 2015, 9:10 pm

I feel a bit sad for the US Open watching every other slam and the world tour finals have countless Fedal meetings, other US tournaments (Miami, Indian Wells etc) having Fedals, they really missed out there.

BB, if Federer had to play Murray and Djokovic and both of the opponents play well, it is unlikely Federer will win the title, but not impossible. Because far more unlikely things have already happened in sports many times.

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Post by greengoblin Fri 28 Aug 2015, 9:21 pm

Henman Bill wrote:I feel a bit sad for the US Open watching every other slam and the world tour finals have countless Fedal meetings, other US tournaments (Miami, Indian Wells etc) having Fedals, they really missed out there.

BB, if Federer had to play Murray and Djokovic and both of the opponents play well, it is unlikely Federer will win the title, but not impossible. Because far more unlikely things have already happened in sports many times.

I think Murray looks a bit confused at the moment. Earlier in the year I was thought he was using his variety more. But that defeat to fed in Wim. semi shows he still thought he could beat fed by feeding his backhand. Look I know Fed was good that day but Murray looked confused and bereft of creativity. I would have really thought he'd have learnt that lesson down under in 2010. Same against Dimi in Cincinatti, nearly cost him. It's just strange and disappointing that at the age of 28, he hasn't managed to come up with a consistent game style which utilises his undoubted skill set properly.

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Post by LuvSports! Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:00 pm

Imo he is using the style that got him 2 slams. Insane fitness, strength but actually not being as aggressive as he was then.

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Post by Calder106 Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:01 pm

Don't think he has really worked out how to play Federer since Roger has started coming forward more frequently. However, if he gets past Krygios, I think that Wawrinka will be a very big challenge for him. After all Stan has beaten Murray twice at the USO.

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Post by CaledonianCraig Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:02 pm

greengoblin wrote:
Henman Bill wrote:I feel a bit sad for the US Open watching every other slam and the world tour finals have countless Fedal meetings, other US tournaments (Miami, Indian Wells etc) having Fedals, they really missed out there.

BB, if Federer had to play Murray and Djokovic and both of the opponents play well, it is unlikely Federer will win the title, but not impossible. Because far more unlikely things have already happened in sports many times.

I think Murray looks a bit confused at the moment. Earlier in the year I was thought he was using his variety more. But that defeat to fed in Wim. semi shows he still thought he could beat fed by feeding his backhand. Look I know Fed was good that day but Murray looked confused and bereft of creativity. I would have really thought he'd have learnt that lesson  down under in 2010. Same against Dimi in Cincinatti, nearly cost him. It's just strange and disappointing that at the age of 28, he hasn't managed to come up with a consistent game style which utilises his undoubted skill set properly.

Murray that day was too passive. His groundstrokes and returns were nearer the service line than the baseline - initiative surrendered especially with Federer also offering up very few chances with his serve. Djokovic returned more aggressively in the final and was rewarded.
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Post by banbrotam Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:24 pm

greengoblin wrote:
Henman Bill wrote:I think Murray looks a bit confused at the moment. Earlier in the year I was thought he was using his variety more. But that defeat to fed in Wim. semi shows he still thought he could beat fed by feeding his backhand. Look I know Fed was good that day but Murray looked confused and bereft of creativity. I would have really thought he'd have learnt that lesson  down under in 2010. Same against Dimi in Cincinatti, nearly cost him. It's just strange and disappointing that at the age of 28, he hasn't managed to come up with a consistent game style which utilises his undoubted skill set properly.


As usual to me Murray's bad days are picked over way too much in comparison his good ones. He and Novak come into Cincy severely jiggered, but still they both (well Murray) get judged on that performance rather than Montreal. Murray certainly didn't look "undercooked" when sending Nishikori back to injury prone mode Rolling Eyes - which got about two complements recently. So he beats the player with the most hard court wins this year, but isn't quite on form

I also wish that people could see the Wimby defeat for what it was. The best ever player in hot fast conditions getting those, to such a degree that Roger would probably agree to earning not another penny if he could move those Friday court speeds to every event he enters, beating one his rivals by three tight sets.

Sorry. But I don't get the big deal. Roger is simply unplayable if he's on it and the conditions are fast or his opponent doesn't play at their best

I really don't understand what you can find "strange and disappointing" about a player who was in danger of tumbling down the rankings after serious surgery, just a year ago - but now finds himself with a realistic chance of getting to No.2

It's noticeable that you choose Wimby this year and the Aus Open of 2010 - but strangely omit his big wins against Roger, i.e. Canada 2010, Olympics 2012 or Aus 13'.


Last edited by banbrotam on Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by CaledonianCraig Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:26 pm

banbrotam wrote:
greengoblin wrote:
Henman Bill wrote:I think Murray looks a bit confused at the moment. Earlier in the year I was thought he was using his variety more. But that defeat to fed in Wim. semi shows he still thought he could beat fed by feeding his backhand. Look I know Fed was good that day but Murray looked confused and bereft of creativity. I would have really thought he'd have learnt that lesson  down under in 2010. Same against Dimi in Cincinatti, nearly cost him. It's just strange and disappointing that at the age of 28, he hasn't managed to come up with a consistent game style which utilises his undoubted skill set properly.


As usual to me Murray's bad days are picked over way too much in comparison his good ones. He and Novak come into Cincy severely jiggered, but still they both (well Murray) get judged on that performance rather than Montreal. Murray certainly didn't look "undercooked" when sending Nishikori back to injury prone mode Rolling Eyes - which got about two complements recently. So he beats the player with the most hard court wins this year

I also wish that people could see the Wimby defeat for what it was. The best ever player in hot fast conditions getting those, to such a degree that Roger would probably agree to earning not another penny if he could move those Friday court speeds to every even he enters, beating one his rivals by three tight sets.

Sorry. But I don't get the big deal. Roger is simply unplayable if he's on it and the conditions are fast or his opponent doesn't play at their best

I really don't understand what you can find "strange and disappointing" about a player who was in danger of tumbling down the rankings after serious surgery, just a year ago - but now finds himself with a realistic chance of getting to No.2

It's noticeable that you choose Wimby this year and the Aus Open of 2010 - but strangely omit his big wins against Roger, i.e. Canada 2010, Olympics 2012 or Aus 13'.


I would agree with most of that. Stacks made out of his losses and not enough made out of his wins. Sadly, that will always be the case.
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Post by banbrotam Fri 28 Aug 2015, 10:27 pm

Calder106 wrote:Don't think he has really worked out how to play Federer since Roger has started coming forward more frequently. However, if he gets past Krygios, I think that Wawrinka will be a very big challenge for him. After all Stan has beaten Murray twice at the USO.

Stan v Andy matches depend highly on who's on form and Stan ain't at this minute. His 2010 defeat remains easily his must disappointing Slam performance, but I think we need to remember that two years ago, it's obvious his back was a big issue as days later he went for surgery

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