Samoa vs Japan

Big weekend for pool B.

This could be an awesome game. Both teams have everything to play for. They could both qualify idled results go to their benefit.

Samoa and Japan both know they must win Saturday's clash in Milton Keynes to keep their hopes of making the quarter-finals alive.

Each side has one win to their name after the first two matches and both came in Brighton, with Samoa getting the better of the USA a day after Japan caused the greatest upset in Rugby World Cup history by shocking South Africa.

Samoa were always expected to compete with Scotland for the runners-up spot in Pool B but Japan's win and the Scots' strong start with two bonus-point victories has made this group more of an open-ended proposition than we predicted.

Stephen Betham's side were blown away by the Springboks – no surprise given it was South Africa's first game following that massive upset – in a 46-6 defeat that was unacceptable when you factor in that Samoa had a six-day rest and time to evaluate the talent in their squad.

Four years ago Samoa finished within seven points of Wales and South Africa in the group stages, thrashing Pacific Island rivals Fiji, which is why now expectations now are so high.

Adding in Tim Nanai-Williams at full-back gives them that extra level in attack, but combine him with the Pisi brothers and Kahn Fotuali'i's class at scrum-half and you have the most potent of backlines.

Having captain Ofisa Treviranus admit that "the boys didn't deliver on the field" is frustrating. Fiji are giving no side in Pool A an easy ride, as we saw again on Thursday against Wales, but for years Samoa have seemed like the best bet to trouble the game's top countries after their shock win over Australia back in 2011.

Off-field issues regarding funding have crippled their development but they are turning a corner off the field while on it, a first quarter-final since 1995 would go some way to proving Samoa are the real deal.

Japan on the other hand have already shattered expectations of what they can achieve with that glorious moment in Brighton – one which may prove to define this whole World Cup.

Something felt wrong therefore watching them run out five days later and instantly fade away after the clock passed 50 or so minutes, exhausted mentally and physically from the unmanageable task of facing two Tier One sides within such little time.

Scotland might have racked up the points on the scoreboard, but until Japan's legs gave way and they lost outstanding number eight Amanaki Mafi to injury they were right in the hunt.

Having now had ten days to recover Japan should more closely resemble the side who bruised South Africa's pride than the one we saw last Wednesday when they take on Samoa.

Mafi is crucially fit, although only takes a place on the bench, as Japan prepare for another physical challenge. They've been here before and succeeded.

Ones to Watch

For Japan: A welcome return for Hitoshi Ono sees him win a 96th cap for his country at the age of 37, a fantastic achievement for the durable lock. Asked how Ono had competed for so long, Eddie Jones pinned it down to the following: "He’s an incredibly tough player and that is why he’s picked. If you want a strong child make sure they get brought up on a dairy farm, deliver the papers every morning, drink 10 beers a night. You should do a documentary on longevity – milk, newspapers and beer." Say no more.

For Samoa: Stephen Betham has noticeably turned as much power as possible in his back row with fetcher Jack Lam left on the bench, and the added bulk of Faifili Levave at number eight will go some way to testing Japan's tackling late on. The former Hurricanes forward slots in at the back of the scrum and will be expected to carry a fair chunk of the workload in attack and defence.

Head-to-head: The two captains. Michael Leitch has already written his name into Japanese folklore after the win over the Boks, but the Chiefs forward packs an impressive engine and constantly seems to get over the gain line. The same can be said for Ofisa Treviranus, who only took over captaining Samoa earlier this year but has done little wrong since. Used across the back row, the flanker will be aiming to cancel out Japan's threat at the breakdown.

Previous results:

2014: Japan won 33-14 in Tokyo

2012: Samoa won 27-26 in Tokyo

2011: Samoa won 34-15 in Tokyo

2010: Samoa won 13-10 in Tokyo

2010: Japan won 31-23 in Apia

Prediction: A full recovery time for the Brave Blossoms means we'll see a truer reflection of their ability after they folded against Scotland, but Samoa are yet to really let loose and had their pride dented against the Springboks. It may came down to goalkicking, with Goromaru up against Tusi Pisi, but Samoa have the slight edge. Samoa by 5 - but if Japan are still in the game with 20 minutes to go, watch out.

The teams:

Japan: 15 Ayumu Goromaru, 14 Akihito Yamada, 13 Male Sau, 12 Harumichi Tatekawa, 11 Kotaro Matsushima, 10 Kosei Ono, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Ryu Koliniasi Holani, 7 Michael Broadhurst, 6 Michael Leitch (c), 5 Hitoshi Ono, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Kensuke Hatakeyama, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Takeshi Kizu, 17 Masataka Mikami, 18 Hiroshi Yamashita, 19 Justin Ives, 20 Amanaki Lelei Mafi, 21 Hendrik Tui, 22 Atsushi Hiwasa, 23 Karne Hesketh

Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ken Pisi, 13 Paul Perez, 12 Johnny Leota, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Faifili Levave, 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Ofisa Treviranus (c), 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Sakaria Taulafo
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Viliamu Afatia, 18 Anthony Perenise, 19 Jack Lam, 20 Vavae Tuilagi , 21 Vavao Afemai , 22 Mike Stanley, 23 Rey Lee-Lo

Date: Saturday, October 3
Venue: Stadiummk, Milton Keynes
Kick-off: 14:30 local (13:30 GMT)
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Stuart Berry (South Africa)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

Strong start from Japan who have controversially had a try disallowed for a forward pass which didn't look overly forward to me!

Yes another penalty now..

They play sensible rugby in Japan... They will want a steady ship.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Strong start from Japan who have controversially had a try disallowed for a forward pass which didn't look overly forward to me!

Ref seemed to indicate the forward pass came earlier than the TV replay showed. Either way, I didn't notice anything.

Yellow Samoa!

RDW_Scotland wrote:Strong start from Japan who have controversially had a try disallowed for a forward pass which didn't look overly forward to me!

I've no idea what Wayne Barnes saw, but from the TV replays there was no forward pass.

Rubbish decision.

Can't the TMO bugger off?

Duty281 wrote:Rubbish decision.

Can't the TMO bugger off?

The lateness was maybe debatable, but there certainly wasn't any arms involved in the tackle.

Joubert is a penalty machine. He can absolutely destroy a game...

How did Japan mess that up so badly?:

Penalty try..

Could this be a weekend where two top nations now out early...?

Good that Japan got the try but they used up a lot of time there.

Japan are so fun to watch

Hopefully this is a real improvement that they can carry on to 2019.

Japan, my goodness, easily my favourite team to watch at this World Cup. Their handling, in particular, is exceptional.

Get the bonus point now, and hope Scotland do them a favour later on.

Gonna say the wrong thing here - but seeing the no arms yellow card samoan tackle I can't help thinking Lydiate was a little lucky with the Tom Wood flip incident.

Fantastic first half by Japan.

Just a shame the bonus points rule means.they have absolutely no chance of reaching the quarter finals.

Even if Scotland beat South Africa and Japan end up with one more win than South Africa, I still expect South Africa to go through.

The sooner IRB wake up and realise bonus points are ruining the Rugby World Cup the.better.

Bonus points denied Tonga a quarter final place in the last World Cup and meant other teams had nothing to play for going into their last games.

maestegmafia wrote:Penalty try..

Could this be a weekend where two top nations now out early...?

Wales wouldn't mathematically be out , but I take your point.

Samoa have been dreadful.

Perez looks pretty lively though

sportform wrote:The sooner IRB wake up and realise bonus points are ruining the Rugby World Cup the.better.

Hard to imagine Japan not taking the penalty and settling for the draw against South Africa without bonus points though...

They're playing like a bunch of indisciplined individuals. Hopefully that continues next weekend!

Nasty for the Japanese 14 - hope he is gonna be OK

Samoa have played rubbish today, I'm totally shocked, this pool is totally bonkers.

I think most pundits forecasted a Samoa win today...!

Japan should have went for the corner there, I reckon if they did they would go on to get another two tries.

Lowlandbrit wrote:

sportform wrote:The sooner IRB wake up and realise bonus points are ruining the Rugby World Cup the.better.

Hard to imagine Japan not taking the penalty and settling for the draw against South Africa without bonus points though...

I don't think bonus points came into that decision.

Holy moly, Batman. Just saw the score. Great score for Japan with 20 minutes to go. A bit of a shame for Samoa as it is impossible to root agains them.
'Samoa still being bagled'

maestegmafia wrote:I think most pundits forecasted a Samoa win today...!

I expected Samoa to wipe the floor with Japan, Scotland and the USA, then push Samoa hard. I totally got this pool wrong in all honesty, I had USA as the potential surprise package, I fancied them to turn Scotland over. I think this pool has actually turned out to be the pool of death because there is little between the teams.

Think Samoa are feeling a bit sorry for themselves and need a leader to refocus them

Great try Samoa. That is a bit more like it..

nathan wrote:Think Samoa are feeling a bit sorry for themselves and need a leader to refocus them

They have deserved to lose their attitude and discipline has been terrible to be honest.

Shifty wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I think most pundits forecasted a Samoa win today...!

I expected Samoa to wipe the floor with Japan, Scotland and the USA, then push Samoa hard.  I totally got this pool wrong in all honesty, I had USA as the potential surprise package, I fancied them to turn Scotland over.  I think this pool has actually turned out to be the pool of death because there is little between the teams.

There are no easy games...!

Georgia were magnificent last night..

Not a yellow then for Samoa?

Before the tournament I honestly thought Samoa would be pushing hard to make the quarters with a possible win v Scotland. Very disappointed with them to be honest. But hats off to Japan too on their continued improvement. Not sure if it's Samoa being poorer than expected or Japan being better than expected? Probably a bit of both.

Tanaka has such a lovely pass on him. Great little player

Completely in control of the game, 21 points up with 10 minutes to go and they are kicking for the posts rather than pushing for the TBP. Then they miss the kick anyway.

Must be some next-level tactics far too advanced for simpletons like me, because I can't understand it at all.

Japan's showings this World Cup will surely help the game over there

Japan should be going for the jugular but they keep going for goal. They won't get the KO stages with that attitude.

TheMildlyFranticLlama wrote:Tanaka has such a lovely pass on him. Great little player

I know Tanaka plays for Crusaders, how many other of Jap players play in Aus, NZ. Would imagine Goromaru would interest a few teams

mikey_dragon wrote:Japan should be going for the jugular but they keep going for goal. They won't get the KO stages with that attitude.

They look knackered, wonder if that's the reason

Wish they would stop saying...they were tired due to turnaround ...after every time they mention the game against Scotland (every fing time!)

Beating Samoa is the achievement, it's an upset. I'm amazed anyone thinks theyd get the 4 tries.

Because they've been good enough to score 4 tries, and Samoa have looked bad enough to let in 4 tries.

brennomac wrote:

TheMildlyFranticLlama wrote:Tanaka has such a lovely pass on him. Great little player

I know Tanaka plays for Crusaders, how many other of Jap players play in Aus, NZ.  Would imagine Goromaru would interest a few teams

According to wikipedia Keita Inagaki, Michael Leitch, Kotaro Matsushima, Fumiaki Tanaka, Hendrik Tui and Akihito Yamada all had 2015 super rugby contracts. I know a few others have some experience with Super rugby teams, at least training with their squads if not playing first team games, e.g. Harumichi Tatekawa.

I totally agree that some of their players may be finding themselves much more in demand now than they have been previously!

I suspect we'll see a few in the Aviva this season

Riskysports wrote:Wish they would stop saying...they were tired due to turnaround ...after every time they mention the game against Scotland (every fing time!)

It might be unfair, but its also true. For what its worth Scotland would have won that game if Japan hadn't fallen away, just arguably less handsomely. And let's not forget Scotland had their own 4-day turnaround, albeit one which they are better equipped to deal with with their superior depth. But it would have been closer. The teams that have schedules like we (Ireland) have should be for the lowest ranked teams with the least squad death and the teams that have 4-day turnarounds should exclusively be the biggest teams with the most depth. This World Cups scheduling is better than the past but we could have a more level playing field.

In reality, more than one game a week in rugby is not going to work. Six-day turnaround should be the least amount of time between games. If the RWC needs to be a week longer make it a week longer. It's only once every four years and its the pinnacle of the sport.

Japan very unlucky not to get the bonus point, a great win for them to be honest.

Samoa just could not get into the game.

Well played Japan on a great win today.

Notch wrote:

Riskysports wrote:Wish they would stop saying...they were tired due to turnaround ...after every time they mention the game against Scotland (every fing time!)

It might be unfair, but its also true. For what its worth Scotland would have won that game if Japan hadn't fallen away, just arguably less handsomely. And let's not forget Scotland had their own 4-day turnaround, albeit one which they are better equipped to deal with with their superior depth. But it would have been closer. The teams that have schedules like we (Ireland) have should be for the lowest ranked teams with the least squad death and the teams that have 4-day turnarounds should exclusively be the biggest teams with the most depth. This World Cups scheduling is better than the past but we could have a more level playing field.

In reality, more than one game a week in rugby is not going to work. Six-day turnaround should be the least amount of time between games. If the RWC needs to be a week longer make it a week longer. It's only once every four years and its the pinnacle of the sport.

The problem with this lazy commentary is that they imply that it hat was the only reason they lost
Unfair and creates a misconception

I don't think the commentators suggested that. They were suggesting Japan had a big disadvantage, which is true. I never saw Japan breaking Scotland down or managing to win that game before they faded away. What I would say is that if every game had the same turnaround Japan might have been able to prevent Scotland from winning with a bonus point though. And if it's a three-way tie expect to hear plenty about that.