AO 2015 - Day 9

Order of Play - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/schedule14.html

Live Scores - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/index.html

Day 9 Preview - http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2016-01-25/day_9_preview_federers_long_memory.html

My predictions...

Djokovic in 4.

Federer in 4.

Williams in 2.

Radwanska in 3.

I have a feeling djokovic will have his work cut out against nishikori. If lei brings his A game, could be an upset on the cards.

Obviously if Novak steps it up, he should win. If he plays like he did against Simon, he will be heading home

On a seperate note. Good to see Murray dispose of Tomic. Murray appears to be playing very well and has a great chance of winning the title on current form. Wawrinka being knocked out will help him too

There's a bit of Spanish granite in his way first. Ferrer murray matxhes are rarely comfortable. Unless novak is physically unwell. It should be the semi we expect

Djokovic may have exorcised his AO 2016 demons vs Simon. I also suspect Nishikori's injury is likely to play a part on the match.

Can't see Kei troubling Djokovic. Such is the inconsistency with Nishikori in recent time. If he is healthy, could expect something similar to the US Open 2014 encounter.

Federer could be troubled if Berdych is in the zone.

I fancy Navarro to take out Radwanska.

Conditions will play the part with Djoko/Kei. Cooler slower night conditons will be perfect for Djoko and blunt Kei. I don't think there is any reason to think Djoko will put up two stinkers in a row. Things change quick. Fed looked avg vs Dimi- spraying forehands plenty, serving avg. Two days later- he looks like an inprime goat. Levels come and go quick. Djoko will be ready tonght.

Faster conditons for the Fed/Berdy match probably is a neutral advantage. Fed can certainly thrive in them and it definite enhances Berds game-- so they prob are both primed to play at their top level-- if both show up at to level, then Fed still wins.

I wonder how Djoko playing in the night conditions that he will get in the semis will factor in the semi against Fed/Berdy who will have to adjust.

I think both matches have the potential for upsets.

In fact, I reckon it's probably about 50/50 that both Fed and Djoko go through (i.e. that they are the two semi finalists).

Djokovic was so abject against Simon, I can't decide if was just a freak performance or whether there really is something amiss.

I'm certainly braced for the upset!

Embracing the concept of compound probability, if we give Djokovic an 80% probability and Federer a 60% we have 48%, so you'd be about spot on.

bogbrush wrote:Embracing the concept of compound probability, if we give Djokovic an 80% probability and Federer a 60% we have 48%, so you'd be about spot on.

I had it at about 70% for both players but the difference probably says more about our pessimism than our mathematics.

Nice to see Monfils at the business end of a slam, would love him to beat Raonic, so much fun to watch and such an unfulfilled talent.

As for the first QFS, I can see Federer being pushed to a tight four setter. I also think Kei will win the first set against Novak but won't be able to get it done as much as I would love Kei to make the jump from chasing pack to one of the real big guns

Fed will crush Berdych. I actually think Tomas is playing well but Fed nowadays just isn't threatened by that type of style. If Berdych serves his best, he might keep a set close, but the smart prediction here is for him to win less than 10 games.

Kei v Novak is harder to predict. Based on their last matches, Kei in straights would seem right but we know that's not happening. I think Kei will get a set but ultimately Novak will be all over his serve and will win in 4 going away.

Genuinely excited about both matches though. Should be cracking tennis.

Don't base too much on one match, I think. Djoko got to be strong favourite here.

In the men's QF's today I don't see any shock outcomes.

Roger more often than not always has too much of a complete game for Berdych and I do not see that changing today. Roger to win in three sets 6-4 7-5 6-3.

The more I think about the other day the more I think it was just a rank rotten day at the office for the World No.1. Novak will be determined to re-establish that aura of invincibility. I see Novak winning in four sets 6-4 6-7 6-3 6-2

Maria is truly phenomenal mentally and tennis wise. To have done all she has with a serve THAT horribly bad

Radwanska wins in 2, and Williams back in domination mode, after losing the first service game.

MaSha, please provide me wrong!

Q: What is common between Williams and Sharapova?
A: Dimitrov.

MaSha, please do not prove LF wrong.  I want this done as soon as possible, so I can catch at least some of Fed without staying up too late.

Because of the time zone, I will not see that much tennis between now and the final.  I will watch at least some of Fed today, some of the first QF tomorrow, and I may get up early for the first SF, if it features Fed.

I will sadly sleep through Novak vs Nishi battle.

For tonight:

Good luck, Roger!
Good luck, Nishi!

@SB... she listened to you!

Happy to see Rocket! I am happy.

Early break berdy. He looks good off the ground, being able to move fed quite easily. Can he keep it up? It's vital from a competitive standpoint that he takes the first set

Nope throws it away instantly. If you guys are worried I think you can sleep easy, berdys not got a hope I dont think

Federer takes the TB, first set. Good luck to both!

and that's game. Straights sets win to set up s likely semi final with novak. Time to finally get some z's over here

G'night T2. Will check in the morning on survivors.

Cheers. Hopefully fed puts on a show for your snowed in self. And berdy lasts at least 20 mins.

Nice match for Federer. Berdy played well but Federer was very smooth and kept the unforced error count low whilst still attacking. A very positive winner / error rate. As I thought, the faster conditions aided him. Berdych is always going to hit hard anyway but it allowed Federer to take time away from him.


Importantly, he got off court quickly, which is crucial in the light of the following:

Interesting comments from Federer with Courier about day / night. Federer more or less said it's a different event: strings racquets differently, loads more time, much more margin for error, much more running. Not exactly what he'd like!

Wow, what a way to victory for the old guy! New coach, new form, new confidence?
Strange to see Berdy smiling all thru the match as if he's resigned to Federer's inevitable victory. But he has the game, as seen in the first set. As usual when Fed steps up the aggression, Tomas just couldn't keep up, mentally.

Fabulous by federer. Berdich didn't go away either- fed was just too good and raised his level. 39 major semis. Insane.

Berdych played about as well as I've seen from him in recent times, striking the ball cleanly with some excellent retrieving. For long spells he was soaking up the pressure, but the winners were just flowing too regularly from Fed, and he stepped it up when it really mattered.

A lot of guys would have folded very quickly against Federer today. Whether or not he can maintain that sort of level against his likely SF opposition.....hmm. That's altogether another story. We shall see.

[quote=

Interesting comments from Federer with Courier about day / night. Federer more or less said it's a different event: strings racquets differently, loads more time, much more margin for error, much more running. Not exactly what he'd like![/quote]

Sorry, could you clarify bb, is it day or night that's "Not exactly what he'd like"?

Night is not what he wants. He needs the courts fast, time short, margins narrow.

It's harder for everyone but his attributes enable him to use it better. You could see it today: at night Berdych would have taken that far closer.

Federer put on an exhibition today. Berdych was not in it.

bogbrush wrote:Night is not what he wants. He needs the courts fast, time short, margins narrow.

It's harder for everyone but his attributes enable him to use it better. You could see it today: at night Berdych would have taken that far closer.

But he's been so many more night matches, everywhere. Interesting that because of who he is in the tennis world, his matches were/are mostly scheduled for the overall bigger crowds at night, regardless. I remember him complaining playing all night matches in certain tournies where he'd ONLY appeared to play in that day match for the first time in the tourney because that happened to be the final. Amazing, he still won plenty.

Federer will be desperate for Nishikori to put Novak out, even going 5 sets is meaningless as Djokovic will never tire. A night match means he needs the opponents defence to be breachable.

Right now I'd make Federer the favourite in a final, but obviously 2nd favourite if Djokovic wins his quarter.

Matchpoint wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Night is not what he wants. He needs the courts fast, time short, margins narrow.

It's harder for everyone but his attributes enable him to use it better. You could see it today: at night Berdych would have taken that far closer.

But he's been so many more night matches, everywhere. Interesting that because of who he is in the tennis world, his matches were/are mostly scheduled for the overall bigger crowds at night, regardless. I remember him complaining playing all night matches in certain tournies where he'd ONLY appeared to play in that day match for the first time in the tourney because that happened to be the final. Amazing, he still won plenty.

It's about match ups - perhaps against Rainic he'd like nights but with Nish / Djokovic he'd prefer midday! Also, stamina: his night match legendary status in the US was built as a younger man who could run forever.

Sure, that's true. But I just don't know what to believe to be their true preference in their hearts. I've heard people alleged that Federer playing mostly at night (in hot countries, of course) had been a HUGE advantage because he was able to conserve form/energy to advance to the latter stages while others playing in the grilling sun were being "cooked".
Conundrum: yes, faster surface in the sun but how long can the body and mind hold up vs the punishing heat?

Thought Berdych might trouble Fed but it seems the old man was just too good. Strange that Berd bt Rog in those GS matches a few years back but has not worried the Swiss recently. Hope Nishi at least gives Djoko a good game. He can´t expect 100 UEs from Djoko this time, though.

sirfredperry wrote:Thought Berdych might trouble Fed but it seems the old man was just too good. Strange that Berd bt Rog in those GS matches a few years back but has not worried the Swiss recently. Hope Nishi at least gives Djoko a good game. He can´t expect 100 UEs from Djoko this time, though.

Probably because Federer has turned his game so assertive. Taken the time away from him and stopped playing the matches to Berdys strengths.

I reckon, both SF's will be night matches. Particularly the Federer one as there is three days until the final

One of my issues with Novak's domination, much as I respect him, is that we rarely see him playing the latter stages in hot conditions. RG/Wimb/US all have variable weather, i.e. no guarantee - but the one slam that could be give us the heat, plays it's latter stages in the evening etc

Novak is vulnerable to either of his two main rivals, if the heat is on. You'd still make him favourite though!!

Come on Ninja, slice him in 3 sets.

banbrotam wrote:I reckon, both SF's will be night matches. Particularly the Federer one as there is three days until the final

One of my issues with  Novak's domination, much as I respect him, is that we rarely see him playing the latter stages in hot conditions. RG/Wimb/US all have variable weather, i.e. no guarantee - but the one slam that could be give us the heat, plays it's latter stages in the evening etc

Novak is vulnerable to either of his two main rivals, if the heat is on. You'd still make him favourite though!!

They're both scheduled for night; that's on the main tournament schedule from the start.

I agree. It's grasping of course, but my heart sank along with the barometer last Wimbledon.

Doesn't look like Nishikori is providing a test yet (only going by scoreline).

banbrotam wrote:

we rarely see him playing the latter stages in hot conditions. RG/Wimb/US all have variable weather, i.e. no guarantee - but the one slam that could be give us the heat, plays it's latter stages in the evening etc

Given his sun-adverse prior history, this is a good point. So that's how he became king of AO, he hasn't had to break his back in the scorching sun to win 5-hr+ finals? Hahaha......

bogbrush wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I reckon, both SF's will be night matches. Particularly the Federer one as there is three days until the final

One of my issues with  Novak's domination, much as I respect him, is that we rarely see him playing the latter stages in hot conditions. RG/Wimb/US all have variable weather, i.e. no guarantee - but the one slam that could be give us the heat, plays it's latter stages in the evening etc

Novak is vulnerable to either of his two main rivals, if the heat is on. You'd still make him favourite though!!

They're both scheduled for night; that's on the main tournament schedule from the start.

I agree. It's grasping of course, but my heart sank along with the barometer last Wimbledon.

There's no doubt that Novak got a big dose of luck with the weather at both Wimbledon and USO.

That's not to say it necessarily changed the results but, RG aside, 2015 was a year when the intangibles tended to fall in Novak's favour.

Is Nishikori getting a right hiding?

According to slamtracker the u/es by both men are far outweighing the winners. Is that why nobody seems to be watching?

Djoko has won this.

In his career so far, Djoko has won 95.7% of matches after winning the first set, Nishkori has won 35% of matches after losing the first set.

It's worth looking ahead:

By comparison for wins after winning the first set, Fed is at 93%, and wins after losing the first set Djoko is at 41.4% and Fed is at 40.4% - so the first set in a Djoko/Fed SF is of similarly critical importance.  

This is underlined by the fact that in their 45 matches the loser of the first set has gone on to win only 8 times, and 7 of those 8 times it has been Djoko; Fed's sole reverse being achieved at Dubai 2014.

Just put the Nishi-Djoko match on. Djoko playing OK but nowhere near his best, Nishi just having one of those days. And unlike Novak the other day, 20 UEs per set is putting him well out of the contest.

bogbrush wrote:Is Nishikori getting a right hiding?

According to slamtracker the u/es by both men are far outweighing the winners. Is that why nobody seems to be watching?

I am watching, Nishi's serve is a pile of manure. The only chance Kei has is going for winners all the time.