rafa or nole? the battle for #1

We all know Nole is closing in on Rafa's #1 ranking. Some commentators see it as a given, describing Nole as #1 in waiting..but is that inevitably so?
And if he does achieve it - how long will he retain it for?
I don't see Rafa staying number 2 for too long even if he does lose number 1.

Here's a possible projection of the next few months (all hypothetical of course ... lots of ifs!)

IF Rafa wins tomorrow, he will be 45 ahead of Djokovic; by Wimbledon he will be 65 ahead as Djokovoc will lose 20 from Queens, if not a greater margin if he plays Queens, as at the moment his 2010 Queens points are uncounted in his tally.

It seems likely that Rafa will need to win Wimbledon again to hold Djoko off. That may be a big ask, but if he DOES win tomorrow I think it will give him a big confidence boost which may steady his nerves and game, and he will have the mental edge over Federer and Murray in Wimbledon, as well as knowing Djoko is beatable.

If Rafa does hold Wimbledon, in order to gain on him Djoko will need to better his semifinal from last year, and that would mean going through Murray or Federer, both of whom are more comfortable with grass than he is and both of whom have tested him recently....
..which could see Rafa emerging from Wimbledon still 65 ahead.
Come August 8th Rafa should get his 500 points from Barcelona when his 0 pointer drops off leaving him 565+.

Then we arrive at the N.American hard court Masters, where Rafa and Djokovic hold identical points in the 2 tournaments 180 and 360...so there it's a question of who goes deepest - but for the first time in a while Rafa will be able to gain points

Which brings us to the US Open! Yes Rafa has to defend the title, but Djoko has Finalist points to defend... and after that the Autumn, where Rafa has less to defend.

By 2012 Djoko will have a bucketload of points to defend and Rafa can only gain in all but MC and Barcelona.....before next years RG...

Does this bring any cheer to Rafa fans?.

The bottom line is this Novak has built up a big points lead, Rafa maybe wins Rg, maybe he even wins wimbeldon but the only way he is assured of holding the number one this season is if repeats at the USO. Novak needs about 11000-12000 points to be number #1 at the end of the season. He has about 7300 of those points already and his best part of the season the US hardcourts and the year end indoor events are still to be played. As for repeating next year lets wait and see what happens. What if Roger has an inspired wimbeldon or knocks Rafa out tomorrow. I am novak fan and I agree we shouldn't count our chickens before they hatch, but Novak is looking real good, this was part of the season that he wasn't expected to be great and he had a great clay court season.

As well as Djokovic has been playing, I suspect that his knee (I am not sure which one it is, but I have noticed strapping on one of his knees recently) could play a huge factor in his ability to keep challenging Rafa.

His game, like Rafa's, seems to be based so much on physicality. This emphasis could potentially threatens his physical health.

Its going to be extremely tough for Rafa to hold onto y/e #1 this year - can only see it happening if Nole loses early in a slam and Rafa goes deep. His start to the year has given him such a huge points tally already - and to be fair so far he deserves to be #1, or conversely its amazing that Rafa is still holding him off because he's done amazingly well this year too for a so-called poor season - QFFWWFF and F or W.

I agree about Nole physicality - infact those almost split leg lunges he does must be putting serious strain on his groin tendons, and this is an action that even Nadal doesnt do, so can imagine Nole have injury timeouts the way he is going.

I need some convincing Lydian that being No.2. actually bothers Rafa a great deal... I remember that he had some of his best results playing No.2. behind Roger. I might be wrong but I dont think its the biggest concern Rafa has at the moment.. trying to find and maintain his previous form is. Winning RG (Roger permitting and Wimbledon is his prime concerns is my belief)

However I did love this quote by Roger

Federer has won more major titles than anyone in history, but he is 2-5 in Grand Slam finals against Rafa and overall, Rafa has won 16 of their 24 matches.


"Silverware is still out there to be won, and I'm looking forward to the match with Rafa, which I guess is my true rival for the last -- all those years since he became world No. 1," said Federer, the 2009 French Open champion. "It always seems to me that Rafa needs to be in a French Open final to make it special, and I got the match I guess I was hoping for."

I'm not trying to convince anyone that Rafa wants #1, just merely how hard it will be to still hold it. I dont think he's bothered about it either, as long as you're 1 or 2 it doesnt make any difference in slam/masters draws.

I commented on that Fed quote in another thread...but I dont agree he was his true rival since Rafa was #1, he's been Fed's true rival since he first beat him as a 17 year old! Think Fed is playing mind games there!

lydian wrote:I'm not trying to convince anyone that Rafa wants #1, just merely how hard it will be to still hold it. I dont think he's bothered about it either, as long as you're 1 or 2 it doesnt make any difference in slam/masters draws.

I commented on that Fed quote in another thread...but I dont agree he was his true rival since Rafa was #1, he's been Fed's true rival since he first beat him as a 17 year old! Think Fed is playing mind games there!

No I wouldn´t argue with you Lydian In fact I agree,... I too believe that Roger is playing mind games but I also believe that Rafa probably would enjoy being back at No.2. for a while at least.. take the pressure off so to speak. I think he obviously would wish to win the FO and Wimbledon again.. whether he was No.1. or no would make little difference to him at this stage

Haddie-nuff wrote:I need some convincing Lydian that being No.2. actually bothers Rafa a great deal... I remember that he had some of his best results playing No.2. behind Roger.

I agree with you Haddie-nuff. In a funny sort of way I think Rafa's ideal parallel universe would be one in which he could be #2 permanently but yet win every single point/game/set/match/championship! He seems to have a shyer personality than Federer or Djokovic and be more of a doer.

I remember an interview just before it was likely he'd become #1 for the first time and he said, in his shoulder shrugging inimitable style that #1 or #2 he'd be happy...and that in fact after so many months/years as number 2 he felt he was the world's best #2!

Having said that, I'm sure there would be some wounded pride if he fell to #2, but not so much as with other players. He seems well equipped with analysis and realism and would simply see it as a challenge - and one he might relish: being the hunter again and not the hunted.

I think we all agree he doesnt mind being number 2 at all, whether he actually WANTS to be #2 to take pressure off I couldnt say. He is a pragmatic guy and if Nole has the run he has and becomes #1 I think Rafa will just say "fair enough, I did my best and someone else has done better". He has that type of mentality...he consistently says that at long as he's doing the best he can then that's all that matters.

At the end of the day he's never going to break Fed/Sampras's #1 records so it doesnt really matter anyway, he's had a fair stint as #1 now (98 weeks) which in itself put him into the legends already (there's only Samp/Fed/Lendl/Connors/McEnroe clearly ahead and only Agassi and Borg just a matter of weeks ahead so he'll probably end up ahead of them and top into top 6), so he can just focus on winning slams as he gets older and not trying to win at all costs every event he enters.

Yes - and he already has his place in history. others are still trying to establish theirs.
It's also possible that he seems genuinely fond of kids and would like some of his own. Not a good idea if you're are likely to be on the road for long. I feel he would be a hands on father so maybe better when he retires and when Xisca is established in her career. Whatever his tennis career I have a sneaky feeling this family man has calculations of his own which respect his future partner and children.

So do I, Talatonian. Look, no-one can predict what his decisions will be for the future, but I've often felt he'll call it a day around the age of 28 because he's often said that he never believed he would have the success he has and if tomorrow goes his way, its a record matching 6 FOs and his Slam count will be in double figures. The only things he hasn't won are 3 of the Masters and the WTF, and frankly, I don't think he'll lose any sleep over that. Whilst he still enjoys competing, he'll be there, but I think there will come a point in time where he will want his "real life" to start, and I believe he will dedicate himself 100% to that and not mix it with tennis.

As for the No. 1, to be honest, it means more to me as a fan than I think it does to him. Oh it matters, but he always sees it as a year long thing that can change hands during the course of the season and if, like his football team, he's not heading the table at the end of it, so be it. Its something else he's had to add to achievements and whether tonight is his last night as No. 1 or whether he still has it by the end of tomorrow evening, frankly, I think winning that Slam at the moment means more.

Hello all,

Noticed something that interested me above, in that it was said that Rafa might not be that bothered about being no.1.

Now, some people might think he'd prefer to be no.2 due to the reduced pressure of not being favourite etc, but i think its far simpler. I think he's the type of guy who enjoys the struggle of 'climbing the mountain' rather than 'standing on top of it' so to speak.

we know he always loves a battle, but i actually think the battles are what he lives for. In one of the close HC masters finals he lost this year (can't remember which one) i remember him being quite chirpy in the post match interview - he seemed thrilled that he'd been involved in the tustle - he even said something along the lines of being happy/priviledged to be involved in such a match. It seems to be what the game is about for him.

I do think there something to the suggestion that Federers dominance actually created Nadal, or shaped him to achieve more than he might have done, simply because the bar was set so high and he loved reaching for it - now he has hold of it i'm not sure it hed like to keep hold, or let go so he can do it all over again.

As for Djoko, i'm not convinced he won't put in poor performances in up and coming tournaments, his confidence knocked - also he must need a mental break, which is understandable. Dependant on draw an R2/3 loss at Wimbledon wouldn't surprise me. That said if he gets through them then i'd expect him to do well.

Djokovic may become World no. 1, but as a Nadal fan I'd be delighted if he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Slams define greatness.

World no.1 is a bonus.

sonic_boom10 wrote:Djokovic may become World no. 1, but as a Nadal fan I'd be delighted if he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Slams define greatness.

World no.1 is a bonus.

Agreed

Now, some people might think he'd prefer to be no.2 due to the reduced pressure of not being favourite etc, but i think its far simpler. I think he's the type of guy who enjoys the struggle of 'climbing the mountain' rather than 'standing on top of it' so to speak.
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There is something very dizzying about being number one that all players want to achieve. It is better than winning a slam cause they know it is an ephemeral feeling. Slams are for ever...being number one is about having the focus of the world now and it won't last! In short it's like life and death. Life is now, death is for ever once life is gone (or at least that's the feeling we have of both).

Who cares about Laver, Borg or Sampras? It's all about Djoko, Nadal and Federer...and tomorrow, it will be about new names.

Nadal's effort to stay on top of that pyramid is too painful. Some got there more naturally, coping with the pressure better and above all being naturally born number ones. Others, most of us are born challengers and nadal is one of the best challenger....but I can see more natural number ones out there.

Tenez Today
Nadal's effort to stay on top of that pyramid is too painful. Some got there more naturally, coping with the pressure better and above all being naturally born number ones

rafa can't help it if his natural instinct and ability to challenge puts him on the top of the pile...-clearly he has 'challenged ' more effectively than people have been natural #1s since 2008

I'll answer this one tomorrow eve Talatonian!

Deat Tenez today - or will it be feds or\Nads answering it?

No reply yet from Tenez....I await it.

Now all Nadal has to do is win Wimbledon and hope Nole doesn't get to the finals to extend his time at #1...do you know - I think he'll do it!

Talatonian wrote:Now all Nadal has to do is win Wimbledon and hope Nole doesn't get to the finals to extend his time at #1...do you know - I think he'll do it!

Nadal is a far superior grass court player than Djokovic, so highly likely.

sonic_boom10 wrote:

Talatonian wrote:Now all Nadal has to do is win Wimbledon and hope Nole doesn't get to the finals to extend his time at #1...do you know - I think he'll do it!

Nadal is a far superior grass court player than Djokovic, so highly likely.

The question might be will Djokovic manage to get to the semi finals? if not even if Nadal does lose points at wimbledon and hands the no.1 to Djoko then come August 8th those extra 500pts added for Nadal might switch things back quickly

I got my reply from Tenez only he seemed to be called Socal - in which case he's obsessed with Fognini. If I'm wrong Socal/Tenez, please tell me and I'll apologise |(see thread about the affect on Djoko of loss to Fed)

Yes, Talatonian I am obsessed with Fognini at least until he either shows up or withdraws to the prewimby events. Please don't ever confuse me with Tenez, not that I don't think he is peachy keen, but we virtually disagree on everything and always have. Like I said I would like to see what happens at wimby. If Rafa can repeat there he will have a strong chance of repeating as year end #1, and that really is more important than the week to week rankings as no points from previous years are in the calculation.

OK Socal - sorry to you too - new and naive and confused in this new forum.

No problem Talatonian. Its pretty funny that you mistook me for tenez of all people.

Socal I think it hillarious

Haddie, I think it is funny to. Really funny.

I admire your tenacity socal, you've had a lot thrown at you since you joined, but you've come up trumps in my book.

Jubba he is A OK and never gets nasty.. what a star socal

Thanks jubba, and Haddie i think you guys are the tops, the tennis site is starting to take off and both of you guys have had a lot to do with it. Lets all have fun and not take this stuff to seriously. Talatonian is good new poster hopes he sticks around and he will discover that I most certainly am not tenez, or I have the worst case of multiple personality disorder since Sybil.

Love it

socal1976 wrote:Talatonian is good new poster hopes he sticks around and he will discover that I most certainly am not tenez, or I have the worst case of multiple personality disorder since Sybil.

That's really nice of you say gthat despite initial booboos. I'm not a he though!

The guys need their girldars on. Thats the second time I have seen a she implied a he

Well how nice talatonian. I hope you enjoy the site, and like your contributions so far.

legendkillar wrote:The guys need their girldars on. Thats the second time I have seen a she implied a he

Well I'm a cross dressing, schizophrenic hermaphrodite. So be careful, it depends what mood I'm in and what day of the week it is.

I know the feeling Talatonian, many on 606 thought my name was female...I guess it was my daft choice to pick a guitar modal scale for my name...I could have gone for Ionian, Dorian, Aeolian, mixolydian, locrian and phrygian instead!

If you want to know what lydian sounds like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhSaTSxjQPM !!

(its a scale that Steve Vai uses all the time for those of you in the know...e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q7E-c-y9zE - sorry for the musical interlude guys!)