The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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TopHat24/7 wrote:

Munchkin wrote:I may have missed it on this thread but what are peoples thoughts on TTIP? Personally I think TTIP would be a a disaster for the EU, but can we fight it off?

Broadly negative but largely irrelevant as the UK would sign up to it in a flash with or without the EU.

Of course it's negative. It's a warning against TTIP and from a Nobel Prize winning economist. Strange that some here complain about the a lack of attention to 'financial experts' yet seem to brush aside the warnings of one on the worlds leading economists.

You say the UK will accept it in a flash, even if Brexit win. Why? I know Cameron will be quick to sell the UK to the highest bidder, but there are plenty of voices against TTIP, including the leader of the opposition. It would also be very doubtful that Cameron will be in power if Brexit do win.

I haven't got around to reading all the comments in reply to the TTIP article, very busy, but will once I get a break.

The other thing to note is

From the BBC:
"He also says it makes "no sense" to trigger Article 50 - the formal process for leaving the EU - until after a "period of reflection" (that's a phrase being used by a lot of Leave campaigners this morning) for the cabinet to determine what it will be seeking in the negotiations, and in what time scale."

Britain has to remain within the EU for at least two years from the moment Article 50 is triggered.  So whatever the currency and share market fluctuations are like - Britain is locked into the EU for at least two years from the moment Article 50 is triggered.

The unknown is whether the EU will begin to tear itself apart, reform, or try to stay as it is, with the likelihood of the second biggest economy within it (Britain) leaving in two plus years - resulting in a decrease in funding for it and a decrease in market.

Wouldn't discount the chance of other countries deciding to bail as well.

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Wouldn't discount the chance of other countries deciding to bail as well.

Yes.  There will certainly be added tensions from now on.

That's one thing I do think will occur now, the EU will collapse like dominos now with further referendums.
Though then a more volatile Europe is never a good thing.

Nore Staat wrote:

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Wouldn't discount the chance of other countries deciding to bail as well.

Yes.  There will certainly be added tensions from now on.

It would be a brilliant policy issue for smaller parties in say Germany or France if they had a general election coming up before Britain formally exited.

Britain can also start to think about relaxing the over zealous planning and environment regulations to consider the much needed house building programme. The population of Britain has increased significantly over the past several years - which necessitates significant infrastructure development.

That might depend on our negotiations Hero. It could be that being unable to secure a decent treaty, UKG decides not to exercise the exit Apparently we're going to lose our AAA rating.

31 year low for the Pound.
Losing the AAA rating.
Probable Scottish election again.
Tensions to rise in N.Ireland.

Going well so far Nige.

Well Nigel Farage is not even in parliament which is probably for the best.  The solution has to come from the politicians already in parliament and our government - which might want to reshuffle its personnel - and I think it needs to bring on board the opposition parties.  We are all in it together sort of spirit maybe.

If there was an all in it together sort of spirit we'd have remained in

Well the EU may be "in it" if other countries start demanding referenda.

I think Jeremy Corbyn - "man of the people", might be able to help Cameron and our government with trying to cope with the aftermath of the referendum result:

From the BBC rolling news:
"The Spectator's Isabel Hardman says she has been leaked the script being sent to Labour MPs, following the Leave victory in the referendum. Remember, Labour was overwhelmingly for Remain.



It includes the following line, she says: "Jeremy Corbyn has showed that he is far closer to the centre of gravity of the British public than other politicians. He is now the only politician who can unite a divided country, as he can speak to both sides."

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Wouldn't discount the chance of other countries deciding to bail as well.

Yep, the whole rotten lot will collapse now!

Out, out, out. Netherlands next.

If Europe doesn't learn some valuable lessons quickly and embrace reform, I'm with Duty, the whole thing will collapse

At the moment Britain is still in the EU and will be in the EU for at least two years.

A concern for the EU is that the national right party in France are demanding a referendum - and if France get a referendum and pull out - there won't be an EU anymore - just a greater Germany.  There will of course be a tightening up within the EU to try to stop this from happening.  The EU as a trading block is still very much worth keeping - it is just the overbearing control EC regulations have on non-trade aspects that is causing the strains. ... as well as issues associated with economic strength imbalances within the EU - causing for example Greece and Spain to remain weak with high youth unemployment
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36615879

The Prime Minister will make a statement at 8:15.

Corbyn will feel the full force of anger from his MPs after his lukewarm support for the EU.

Wow, I've never seen Corbyn so snappy and defensive (on Sky News now).

I think we need all our politicians pulling together.  The result has produced a financial and market crises which our politicians have to rise to the challenge of.  I think Jeremy Corbyn and Labour will need to play an important role and he needs to tell the labour doom mongerers like Keith Vaz to take a running jump.  Corbyn's got to act like a proper leader of a party.  I thought John McDonnell spoke well.

Nore Staat wrote:I think we need all our politicians pulling together.

Yes, they're very good at doing that, aren't they?

What's your plan B?

Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

Why ?

It is part of the UK. Why should they feel threatened ?

'Call me Dave' resigns/will resign in the next few months.

I'm going to wake up in a minute.

What a weak loser our PM was.  Reminds me of the way Ed Milliband left labour in the lurch when he couldn't hack it.

He led Britain into this referendum, conducted it disastrously and now quits.

I suspected these politicians were the weakest we have ever had and I have been proved right.

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

Why ?

It is part of the UK. Why should they feel threatened ?

Because the new trade agreement with the EU which GB needs, requires Spain to agree to it. Which they won't without, at the very least, negotiations over Gibraltar to begin. Why do you think 94% (ish?) of the Gibraltans voted Remain - they can see the writing on the wall.

Presumably we'll have the leadership election over the summer - like Labour last year:

Johnson is the clear favourite. May and Gove are the outsiders. Leadsom is the dangerous outsider.

Osborne is....nowhere!

Nicola Sturgeon, on the other hand, must be delighted. The odds on Scotland leaving GB must now be very good indeed.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

Why ?

It is part of the UK. Why should they feel threatened ?

Because the new trade agreement with the EU which GB needs, requires Spain to agree to it. Which they won't without, at the very least, negotiations over Gibraltar to begin. Why do you think 94% (ish?) of the Gibraltans voted Remain - they can see the writing on the wall.

Spain can shoot themselves in the foot if they wish - doubly foolish considering they will be net contributors to the EU (I think) once we Leave.

Boris Johnson for PM and Donald Trump for President. The world is going mad.

I said Cameron should be stripped naked and birched.  He should now be put in stocks and taken away.

Dead cat bounce in a few days, get investing

And another strong rumour is that Corbyn may well be ousted by some of his MPs.

Two new party leaders - perchance? Victorious UKIP to totally rebrand? General Election inside a year?

Interesting!

Nore Staat wrote:I said Cameron should be stripped naked and birched.  He should now be put in stocks and taken away.

Why? A leader who has lost the confidence of the people can't stay on.

It was game over the moment Boris Johnson declared he would be backing Brexit and it highlights the problem of Labour and the Conservatives having two very disliked leaders during a referendum.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

Why ?

It is part of the UK. Why should they feel threatened ?

Because the new trade agreement with the EU which GB needs, requires Spain to agree to it. Which they won't without, at the very least, negotiations over Gibraltar to begin. Why do you think 94% (ish?) of the Gibraltans voted Remain - they can see the writing on the wall.

Look, the voting is over now. You do not need to be scare mongering anymore. As part of the UK Gibraltar will be fine, especially with them having the £.

Still, thank goodness the Leave team were correct after all, and that a vote to Leave won't have a negative affect on the economy. FTSE and pound relatively unaffected.

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Feel sorry for the people of Gibraltar - only a matter of time now, and they know it.

Why ?

It is part of the UK. Why should they feel threatened ?

Because the new trade agreement with the EU which GB needs, requires Spain to agree to it. Which they won't without, at the very least, negotiations over Gibraltar to begin. Why do you think 94% (ish?) of the Gibraltans voted Remain - they can see the writing on the wall.

Look, the voting is over now. You do not need to be scare mongering anymore. As part of the UK Gibraltar will be fine, especially with them having the £.

It's not scaremongering - it is the most likely outcome. Not a certainty, of course, but people need to open their eyes to the likely outcomes. What's your explanation for the 94% Remain vote in Gibraltar? They can see what's coming, even if others can't.

The Market has bounced a little.

Leadsom & Clinton. Bet on it

JuliusHMarx wrote:Boris Johnson for PM and Donald Trump for President. The world is going mad.

Boris Johnson is actually highly educated and intelligent - he just has the mannerisms that make it easy to present him as a buffoon. I leave it to Trussman to comment on Donald Trump.

Nore Staat wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Boris Johnson for PM and Donald Trump for President. The world is going mad.

Boris Johnson is actually highly educated and intelligent - he just has the mannerisms that make it easy to present him as a buffoon.  I leave it to Trussman to comment on Donald Trump.

He is intelligent - he saw a way to get rid of Cameron, and did it!

Jamie Roberts unhappy

https://twitter.com/Jamiehuwroberts/status/746246936206807040

JuliusHMarx wrote:Still, thank goodness the Leave team were correct after all, and that a vote to Leave won't have a negative affect on the economy. FTSE and pound relatively unaffected.

Knee jerk reactions. Things will plateau within a week or so. Look, the UK is one of the worlds big hitters. We have nothing to fear.

LordDowlais wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Still, thank goodness the Leave team were correct after all, and that a vote to Leave won't have a negative affect on the economy. FTSE and pound relatively unaffected.

Knee jerk reactions. Things will plateau within a week or so. Look, the UK is one of the worlds big hitters. We have nothing to fear.

Because we're recession-proof?

They have known about this potential for quite some time, knee jerk isn't how I would describe it.

There are years of uncertainty ahead.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Boris Johnson for PM and Donald Trump for President. The world is going mad.

Boris Johnson is actually highly educated and intelligent - he just has the mannerisms that make it easy to present him as a buffoon.  I leave it to Trussman to comment on Donald Trump.

He is intelligent - he saw a way to get rid of Cameron, and did it!

I am not sure he wanted Cameron to go - he added his signature to a list of around 85 on the exit side who wanted him to see out his term and deliver on his pledge to work for the British people no matter what the outcome was going to be. Cameron has basically reneged on that. This is not the time for a change in leadership. But it seems that Cameron is ultimately a very weak PM whose major skill is spin.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Because we're recession-proof?

Every country is in that boat. We have been bailing them out for the last decade because of it.

Why are you worried of another recession ? Where was the EU when we were going through our credit crunch ?

I don't like Cameron but he should lead Britain through this period and go when he loses an election.

I'd guess the split in the Tory party has made his position unteneble.

A British truck driver thanking EC Leader Mr Jean-Claude Juncker for his speech two days ago saying that there would be no further deals with Britain - for persuading him and others to vote leave.

Nore Staat wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Boris Johnson for PM and Donald Trump for President. The world is going mad.

Boris Johnson is actually highly educated and intelligent - he just has the mannerisms that make it easy to present him as a buffoon.  I leave it to Trussman to comment on Donald Trump.

He is intelligent - he saw a way to get rid of Cameron, and did it!

I am not sure he wanted Cameron to go - he added his signature to a list of around 85 on the exit side who wanted him to see out his term and deliver on his pledge to work for the British people no matter what the outcome was going to be.  Cameron has basically reneged on that.  This is not the time for a change in leadership.  But it seems that Cameron is ultimately a very weak PM whose major skill is spin.

He was intelligent enough to sign that document, look like the good guy, and then cross his fingers that Cameron resigned anyway (which was the likely eventuality). A calculated gamble that again paid off. Both Farage and Lucas believe Cameron resigning was the right thing to do.

Ent wrote:I don't like Cameron but he should lead Britain through this period and go when he loses an election.

I'd guess the split in the Tory party has made his position unteneble.

No I think most wanting him to stay to see Britain through this period, which includes trying to keep Scotland and possibly N.I. in the Union.  I am not sure Britain is ready for Boris Johnson as leader.