The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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TopHat24/7 wrote:

Munchkin wrote:I may have missed it on this thread but what are peoples thoughts on TTIP? Personally I think TTIP would be a a disaster for the EU, but can we fight it off?

Broadly negative but largely irrelevant as the UK would sign up to it in a flash with or without the EU.

Of course it's negative. It's a warning against TTIP and from a Nobel Prize winning economist. Strange that some here complain about the a lack of attention to 'financial experts' yet seem to brush aside the warnings of one on the worlds leading economists.

You say the UK will accept it in a flash, even if Brexit win. Why? I know Cameron will be quick to sell the UK to the highest bidder, but there are plenty of voices against TTIP, including the leader of the opposition. It would also be very doubtful that Cameron will be in power if Brexit do win.

I haven't got around to reading all the comments in reply to the TTIP article, very busy, but will once I get a break.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I'm sure she'd to a great job, but as she isn't an MP she can't become PM....

That rules out Lord Nigel of England, then.

I'm sure the Tories will be able to parachute him into a safe seat after this referendum....Whitney should be available....

Can't we ship him out to Houston?

Federica Mogherini is entitled to her views, and in some ways, she's right. Go to Bradford and then say that Islam doesn't hold a place in Europe. Go to southern Spain and then say that Islam doesn't hold a place in Europe's history. Go and eat food in Greece and say Islam doesn't hold a place in our food.

Not that that has much to do with the EU. Islam holds a place in Bradford regardless of the EU.

As for Turkey joining the EU? There's more chance of England applying to join the Turkey in the "Peripheral zone of sweatshop assembly countries".

I thought the Iran nuclear deal was seen as a success?

Think the previous occupant of that job was British and also involved in the Iran deal.

Thanks to the other half I didn't get a chance to vote this morning so now having to go after work.

Must admit I'm bloody loving the media blackout. Seeing Farage saying something racist, or BoJo contradicting himself for the umpteenth time, or Gisele Stuart banging on about immigration when she's one "of them" that she so hates is enough to give a man the twitches.

That and Duty is quiet.

Watch what the £ does during the day folks. A few hedgefund companies have spent a fair bit on private exit polling so will likely know before the results start getting released if the polls are wrong and one side has a big lead.

Coxy001 wrote:Thanks to the other half I didn't get a chance to vote this morning so now having to go after work.

Won't the EU ban that sort of thing? You'll have to get out of bed at 6am standard time, like the Germans and Greeks do.

On the subject of Germans, check out the Bild coverage (covered in the Guardian). Apparently, if we vote Remain, they'll do the next penalty shoot out without a goal keeper. And some other funny stuff.

Watch what the £ does during the day folks. A few hedgefund companies have spent a fair bit on private exit polling so will likely know before the results start getting released if the polls are wrong and one side has a big lead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm

Pound up a bit since 8am. Let's hope the Pound is right.

Speaking of which, "Last chance to save the pound" seems appropriate. Where's Hague when you need him?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/23/pound-shares-markets-investors-await-eu-referendum-result----business-live

So far pound rising very quickly, and FTSE hitting a two-month high. Good signs, or premature speculation?

Mad for Chelsea wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/23/pound-shares-markets-investors-await-eu-referendum-result----business-live

So far pound rising very quickly, and FTSE hitting a two-month high. Good signs, or premature speculation?

Isn't that what Duty suffers from when he sees Farage?

You're getting your "culation"s mixed up I think

Hero wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/23/pound-shares-markets-investors-await-eu-referendum-result----business-live

So far pound rising very quickly, and FTSE hitting a two-month high. Good signs, or premature speculation?

Isn't that what Duty suffers from when he sees Farage?

What a brilliant post, in one step you both extol duty's virility and damn his stayRemaining power

I have my moments.

Alex_Germany wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:Thanks to the other half I didn't get a chance to vote this morning so now having to go after work.

Won't the EU ban that sort of thing? You'll have to get out of bed at 6am standard time, like the Germans and Greeks do.

On the subject of Germans, check out the Bild coverage (covered in the Guardian). Apparently, if we vote Remain, they'll do the next penalty shoot out without a goal keeper. And some other funny stuff.

Watch what the £ does during the day folks. A few hedgefund companies have spent a fair bit on private exit polling so will likely know before the results start getting released if the polls are wrong and one side has a big lead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm

Pound up a bit since 8am. Let's hope the Pound is right.

Speaking of which, "Last chance to save the pound" seems appropriate. Where's Hague when you need him?

Trading is pretty low today so far, if it starts ramping up late afternoon then something has filtered through.

Ipsos Mori has just come out giving remain 52% vs 48% for leave in its final poll as well which means there'll be a jump in the next few minutes.

All looking good for Remain. Not so much for Farage/BoJo/Gove whose politcal careers are currently in ruins.

Didn't Gove promise to leave the government if Remain wins? If ever you were undecided and needed that extra push

It's BoJo who will suffer the most. He was the presumptive next PM prior to declaring his allegiance for Leave - a huge miscalculation from a very calculating politician.

Yep, Ipsos-Mori have Remain 52-48 ahead once Don't Knows are excluded.

Broadly speaking, all phone polls finish with Remain ahead. All online polls finish with Leave ahead (bar YouGov, but their polling has been all other the place).

I wouldn't pay any attention to investors doing exit polls of their own - there's a reason why the professional polling companies aren't doing any!

I'll be keeping the Champagne in ice for now. (It'll cost more if there's a Brexit )

I expect if someone wants to buy £££££ today - based on private polling or not - the seller is going to be very nervous. So I guess small trades could move the market, perhaps making it unreliable.

Maybe someone in currency trading could tell us how it works - but I guess they're all busy, or getting ready for a long night.

Duty281 wrote:Yep, Ipsos-Mori have Remain 52-48 ahead once Don't Knows are excluded.

Broadly speaking, all phone polls finish with Remain ahead. All online polls finish with Leave ahead (bar YouGov, but their polling has been all other the place).

I wouldn't pay any attention to investors doing exit polls of their own - there's a reason why the professional polling companies aren't doing any!

Yes, exit polls are very expensive to do and it's usually the various parties who come together to fund it. Pretty sure I'm correct in saying that.

There are £billions to be made though on whether we remain/leave. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e26d896-241c-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#axzz4COj6R9GX

So if at around late afternoon Sterling starts to climb or fall in what would be termed as statistically significant then you'll have a fair idea of your answer.

Alex_Germany wrote:

Maybe someone in currency trading could tell us how it works - but I guess they're all busy, or getting ready for a long night.

I'm in commodity trading but the principle is the same. The spreads are a touch wider than usual but nothing too dramatic. The bid and ask on gold has widened more than most days but I was expecting a bit more to be honest. It is duller than I thought it would be. It may increase in volatility in the afternoon. The septics may come in and hit either cable or gold, depending on their view. That could shift things around.

Sterling is testing 1.495 now having spent most of the day around 1.4875. The spreads are so tight in FX trading that you need some serious size to move it normally, but smaller trades may increase volatility if any creditable information leaks out one way or t'other.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Alex_Germany wrote:

Maybe someone in currency trading could tell us how it works - but I guess they're all busy, or getting ready for a long night.

I'm in commodity trading but the principle is the same.  The spreads are a touch wider than usual but nothing too dramatic.  The bid and ask on gold has widened more than most days but I was expecting a bit more to be honest.  It is duller than I thought it would be.  It may increase in volatility in the afternoon.  The septics may come in and hit either cable or gold, depending on their view.  That could shift things around.

Sterling is testing 1.495 now having spent most of the day around 1.4875.  The spreads are so tight in FX trading that you need some serious size to move it normally, but smaller trades may increase volatility if any creditable information leaks out one way or t'other.

I love it when you talk dirty.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

Alex_Germany wrote:

Maybe someone in currency trading could tell us how it works - but I guess they're all busy, or getting ready for a long night.

I'm in commodity trading but the principle is the same.  The spreads are a touch wider than usual but nothing too dramatic.  The bid and ask on gold has widened more than most days but I was expecting a bit more to be honest.  It is duller than I thought it would be.  It may increase in volatility in the afternoon.  The septics may come in and hit either cable or gold, depending on their view.  That could shift things around.

Sterling is testing 1.495 now having spent most of the day around 1.4875.  The spreads are so tight in FX trading that you need some serious size to move it normally, but smaller trades may increase volatility if any creditable information leaks out one way or t'other.

I love it when you talk dirty.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/23/uk-population-grew-half-million-net-migration-ons?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews

I love how over half of the country today are pretending that this is sustainable! Won't be too long before our population is greater than France.

I love how slightly under half of the country today are blaming all of our problems on such a small number of people.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I love how slightly under half of the country today are blaming all of our problems on such a small number of people.

All of our problems? Certainly not. Blaming it on people? Certainly not.

I'd also expect exit polls to be very hard to do.

In a general election, you can do an exit poll on a marginal seat, and compare the result with the previous general election result, and extrapolate for a national swing. In this case, there is no previous result. An exit poll in Hastings will be different from one in Chelsea.

I suppose you could commission a big poll a week before, then an exit poll in the same location, and get a view of the bias. That should work - but only in theory.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I love how slightly under half of the country today are blaming all of our problems on such a small number of people.

I think the whole country is doing that.

Just one half is blaming one group and the other half is blaming the other. Was ever thus.

Pound surges, latest poll has it 55% remain.

Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

Won't even stretch to Pizza Express, tight wad.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

I see.

@BenPBradshaw
If you see Leave placards fixed to lamp posts, bridges or any public structure please report location & council will remove. It's illegal.

And to think I voted for this idiot to be Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...

Duty281 wrote:@BenPBradshaw
If you see Leave placards fixed to lamp posts, bridges or any public structure please report location & council will remove. It's illegal.

And to think I voted for this idiot to be Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...

The more fool you

Duty281 wrote:@BenPBradshaw
If you see Leave placards fixed to lamp posts, bridges or any public structure please report location & council will remove. It's illegal.

And to think I voted for this idiot to be Deputy Leader of the Labour Party...

You're building up quite a history of votes that you'll end up realising were misjudged.

l*l

JuliusHMarx wrote:

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

I'll buy myself a bottle of quality English Sparkling wine if Remain win by 50.00000000001% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

Alex_Germany wrote:I'd also expect exit polls to be very hard to do.

In a general election, you can do an exit poll on a marginal seat, and compare the result with the previous general election result, and extrapolate for a national swing. In this case, there is no previous result. An exit poll in Hastings will be different from one in Chelsea.

I suppose you could commission a big poll a week before, then an exit poll in the same location, and get a view of the bias. That should work - but only in theory.

Exit polls wouldn't be difficult for a referendum. There are only two potential outcomes. So long as you take a good sample of urban/ rural, deprivation, ethnic mix, etc, you'll get a pretty reliable outcome.

The reason polling companies aren't doing exit polls is because no one is paying them to do so.

Alex_Germany wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

I'll buy myself a bottle of quality English Sparkling wine if Remain win by 50.00000000001% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

None of this sparkling wine nonsense.

Champagne was invented by the English.

The English supposedly invented sparkling white wine. Champagne is in France so was not.

Duty281 wrote:

Alex_Germany wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

ShahenshahG wrote:Someone who works in our offices has promised to take all the facilities people to Nandos should remain win by 67% or more. Presumably he's bet on it?

He's just trying to appear generous, safe in the knowledge it won't happen.
I'll take everyone on this thread to Pizza Hut if Leave win by 70% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

I'll buy myself a bottle of quality English Sparkling wine if Remain win by 50.00000000001% or more. It's the kind of guy I am.

None of this sparkling wine nonsense.

Champagne was invented by the English.

But out of generosity we named it after a region of France.

Posting this without an agenda. This did make me laugh:

Someone wrote:Friday's going to be amazing! i'm going to wake up in my Union Jack jim-jams to the sound of a squadron of Spitfires racing overhead and leaving a trail of hot buttered crumpets behind them.

I'll run to the corner shop past all the British children who are laughing and squealing with excitement as they make a beautiful statue of the queen out of happy wriggling bulldog puppies - with two corgis for her eyebrows!

bunting flutters everywhere and the man from the betting shop steps into the street - "guess what! England just won the World Cup & The Ashes & The Grand National and here's the best bit - Boris put a bet on it for everyone! you're all MILLIONAIRES!!!"

the red arrows fly overhead dropping fish and chips as i walk into the corner shop, get my morning paper and go to the counter. "how much please?" i say to the Asian lad there. "1 pence, everything in the whole shop now costs just 1p!" he laughs, "leave it on the counter, i'm off back to Pakistan - we all are!"

And he's right! Outside in the streets jolly old Nigel Farage is leading a huge crowd of happy foreigners - Turks, Poles, Romanians, Syrians - there's even a few English people with heavy suntans mixed up in there! Nigel's playing Rule Britannia on a long pipe, rather like the pipe that takes the gas into your oven, and they're all following and smiling and talking foreign, bless them!

Just then Boris flies overhead in a Concorde made of Bank of England gold - "don't worry!" he laughs "I've cut out all the bits the French made!" and with that he crashes into the ground at 1200 miles an hour, along with the economy, the country and all the dozy nostalgic foreigner-fearing ****wits who fell for his bullsh!t.

Sterling is weaker again. Close to where we started the day, practically.

Although it hadn't been through 1.48 at all in 2016 till this morning so make of that what you will.

My duty is done for today - I have voted Leave.

Though it looks unlikely, I hope 15,000,000+ of my fellow countrymen and women will back me.

Both official campaigns have been very below-par, but I pray that the electorate won't buy into the vision-less, uninspiring and downright negative view that Britain Stronger in Europe have of this nation.

Hopefully, this time tomorrow, the United Kingdom will have restored its sovereignty, have greater democratic control and will possess a global outlook, rather than being obsessed with a single continent that will slide into greater irrelevance over the next 20-50 years.

Duty281 wrote:My duty is done for today - I have voted Leave.

Though it looks unlikely, I hope 15,000,000+ of my fellow countrymen and women will back me.

Both official campaigns have been very below-par, but I pray that the electorate won't buy into the vision-less, uninspiring and downright negative view that Britain Stronger in Europe have of this nation.

Hopefully, this time tomorrow, the United Kingdom will have restored its sovereignty, have greater democratic control and will possess a global outlook, rather than being obsessed with a single continent that will slide into greater irrelevance over the next 20-50 years.

With the greatest possible respect I don't think Leave voters are backing you exactly!

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Duty281 wrote:My duty is done for today - I have voted Leave.

Though it looks unlikely, I hope 15,000,000+ of my fellow countrymen and women will back me.

Both official campaigns have been very below-par, but I pray that the electorate won't buy into the vision-less, uninspiring and downright negative view that Britain Stronger in Europe have of this nation.

Hopefully, this time tomorrow, the United Kingdom will have restored its sovereignty, have greater democratic control and will possess a global outlook, rather than being obsessed with a single continent that will slide into greater irrelevance over the next 20-50 years.

With the greatest possible respect I don't think Leave voters are backing you exactly!

Back my decision, then! Replicate my decision!

Whatever it is, I hope they put the 'X' in the 'Leave' box.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:Sterling is weaker again.  Close to where we started the day, practically.

Although it hadn't been through 1.48 at all in 2016 till this morning so make of that what you will.

Something must have happened - the odds on Remain with Betfair went from 1/12 to 1/8, and Leave from 8/1 to 11/2, in a matter of 30-45 minutes.

That's weird as Brexit fell to a low of 15-17% (chances of) in the last couple of hours.

Odds are hovering around 1/10 for remain. Betfair just may have had an unusually large bet on leave for their odds to change as there's 1/12 also in the market.

Boys and girls, get your votes in and lets stuff these leave wan*kers by a big margin!

Are Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson really evil?  And is it a reasonable argument to be against everything they might be for?

Did you know that Adolf Hitler was a vegetarian?  If one adopted the same "logic" - would that mean you should not be a vegetarian and all vegetarians are no different from Hitler?

I've kind of been wondering whether there was no prospect of brexit at all and some b*stards have been manipulating polls so they can make money. C*nts like Nutless Tino.

Not sure what you've been looking at Duty but odds for leave are drifting :

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

(Look at the colour codes)

Nore Staat wrote:Are Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson really evil?  And is it a reasonable argument to be against everything they might be for?

Did you know that Adolf Hitler was a vegetarian?  If one adopted the same "logic" - would that mean you should not be a vegetarian and all vegetarians are no different from Hitler?

I didn't, but that's another good reason to dislike him.

ShahenshahG wrote:I've kind of been wondering whether there was no prospect of brexit at all and some b*stards have been manipulating polls so they can make money. C*nts like Nutless Tino.

C'mon Shah, let's not be nice to Tina eh? Far too kinder words