Indian Wells 2017

First topic message reminder :

Bottom Quarter

R3

Del Porto v Djokovic
Zverev v Kyrgios

R4

Del Porto/Djokovic v Zverev/Kyrgios
Federer v Nadal

QF

Djokovic v Nadal/Federer

laverfan wrote:

slashermcguirk wrote:still trying to get my head around Djokovic, cannot get over just how low he has dropped.

IMHO, the separation from Becker, in hindsight, may be regrettable. Murray/Lendl breakup also brought chaos to Murray.

The Lendl break up coincided with Murray just getting going again after back surgery - that's the the "chaos" responsible for his relatively flat 2014. I also thought Andy was playing quite nicely in the spring and summer of 2015, before that Amelie split - I certainly preferred his tennis under her, that beautiful and yes unique all conquering variety was back

I also don't think his game is ever that 'great' with Lendl in charge. For me his best tennis is 2009 and then back end of 2011 (i.e. the Nadal bagel in Japan) and then again as I said in 2015

Clearly though it is big psychological help, but then again that affect can surely only last so long, i.e. if Novak simply can't perform to the high standards without someone 'big' constantly mopping his brow, then he does have problems

I'm seriously not certain how much Lendl has done this time around. For me all the credit goes to Delgado. For instance Murray's step forward on the clay last year was when Lendl wasn't around

But if it helps Andy to a few more slams, then great!!

banbrotam wrote:

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I also don't think his game is ever that 'great' with Lendl in charge. For me his best tennis is 2009 and then back end of 2011 (i.e. the Nadal bagel in Japan) and then again as I said in 2015

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banbrotam - you're a far more knowledgeable student of the Murray game, in all its various guises & evolution, than I am (or ever will be!) and as such I am certainly not dismissing what you say here.

But ..... full credit nonetheless to Ivan Lendl. It is for his Slam titles (and perhaps Olympic Gold too, though to a much lesser extent .... ) that Murray will forever be remembered, long after his competitive career is over. And it was, after all,  Lendl who was at his side when those wins came.

Agonizing two last games in Vesnina vs Williams (V). Vesnina finally wins the match.

Another struggle for The Man but he's through. Am I right in thinking the Thiem defeat means Fed will go above him to 8th (assuming Raonic doesn't play) for Miami? At least this will mean Rog avoids another awkward 4th round match.
Doubt, though, whether we're likely to get quite such a heavyweight quarter in the draw again as we did at IW. Bit of a freak, that.

sirfredperry wrote:Another struggle for The Man but he's through. Am I right in thinking the Thiem defeat means Fed will go above him to 8th (assuming Raonic doesn't play) for Miami? At least this will mean Rog avoids another awkward 4th round match.
  Doubt, though, whether we're likely to get quite such a heavyweight quarter in the draw again as we did at IW. Bit of a freak, that.

With the QF result, Federer has already passed Tsonga, Cilic and Thiem. So he'll be #7 next Monday, and if he would win Indian Wells he will even pass Nadal and be #6.

It'll be interesting to see if Djokovic can manage to stay ahead of Wawrinka and Raonic during the clay season. Djokovic has 5610 points to defend (of which he's already lost 910 this week in IW). That is close to a stunning 60% of his points total (!). Wawrinka and Raonic are defending around 25% of their points. As Wawrinka is a force to be reckoned with on clay, and seems to be heading for the IW final, I give him the best chances to pass Djokovic.

Nishikori and Nadal are the next chasers, but they also have a lot of points to defend (42% and 57% respectively). Federer is likely to skip quite a few tournaments before RG (if he goes deep in IW, I except him to even pull out of Miami), but he has only 8% of his points to defend so in theory even he could challenge Djokovic.

If Djokovic wants to enter Wimbledon as #2 seed, he will need to refind his form immediately!

sirfredperry wrote:

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  Doubt, though, whether we're likely to get quite such a heavyweight quarter in the draw again as we did at IW. Bit of a freak, that.

Very true, a freakish draw indeed. And out of the fearsome Big Four (is that still a valid term .... ), the only one still standing is the oldest of them all !

Interesting to see who eventually takes this IW title.  I don't think Fed will manage it ...... more likely a first-time Masters winner .....? But .....if Fed does do it, I'd say it would be every bit as good as - in fact better than - any of his previous 1000's, given overall context & age.

Fed has more than 8% points to defend - 270 on clay, 990 on grass. Rafa can gain points at Miami and the FO.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Fed has more than 8% points to defend - 270 on clay, 990 on grass.  Rafa can gain points at Miami and the FO.

I was talking about the clay season, i.e. until and including RG. Those 270 points are only 8% of Federer's current points total.

You're right that Rafa can gain points in individual tournaments like Miami and the French Open, but he is also defending Indian Wells SF (360), Monte Carlo W (1000), Barcelona W (500), Madrid SF (360), Rome QF (180) plus his 90 points from the French. So all in all Rafa needs to perform rather well if he is to increase his points total significantly. Of course given his past dominance during the clay season, this is entirely possible but not an easy task!

From about 2013 to 2016, it hardly looked worth playing the clay season for Roger, given the physical challenges and the strength of Rafa and Novak the chances to win those events seemed so low. But, with this good form, and Novak's weak form, and Rafa seeming past his best, it does look more open.

I'd be tempted for Federer to play about 3 clay tournaments including Roland Garros, giving him time to rest. At least I'd be tempted to play Monte Carlo and/or Rome which he's never won and see how it goes.

If he gets to the final in Indian Wells, then maybe skip Miami and enter Monte Carlo instead. I do think he needs to avoid playing back to back tournaments where he is going deep in both.

I think he has Miami on his schedule.

The French Open itself is probably a stretch too far for Roger to actually win it, but I think he should at least turn up with some clay practice and give himself a chance.

I delayed taking Kyrgios at 9/2 yesterday to beat the Fed, and was only offered 6/4 today. Not worth it really (Federer is 8/15).

I do think bad boy Kyrgios is on a roll and will come through this one.

Probably just as well that you didn't place a bet, Kyrgios is on a bed rather than on a roll:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/39308592

Oh no !

Was looking forward to it SO much. Had all the ingredients for a fascinating contest.

Disappointed a bit with Kyrgios's withdrawal. The Nishikori-Sock match in third-set now.

It is a shame Kyrgios had to pull-out as it looked a mouth-watering clash. Federer through to the semis then.

Nishikori loses in the third. One step closer to a potential Fedrinka final.

barrystar wrote:In 20 years' time the number we associate with Federer will be 19 (or possibly more)

Let's hope so!

barrystar wrote:my guess is at his peak Fed would have been distinctly dis-chuffed to have tumbled out of two HC slams one after the other without passing the QF

I suspect even current Fed would not be thrilled with that.  Over the last seven slams, Fed's results are:

1xW, 2xF, 2xSF, 2x absent

That is - in spite of missing two of the slams - better than what Andy has done over the same period:

1xW, 2xF, 1xSF, 1xQF, 2xR4

I just noticed you said two HC slams.  Well, that has not yet happened to Fed.  Since AO 2004 when Fed first made the SF in a hard-court slam there have not yet been back-to-back HC slams where Fed would not reach SF in at least one of them.

All of a sudden, Fed's path looks much cleaner in the IW.  He did some of the hard work himself by beating Nadal, but with Djokovic and Nishi losing, and Kyrgios a no-show, the field cleared up more than he would have expected.

He should definitely try to win here now.  Irrespective of how he finishes here, it is less clear to me how hard he should try in Miami.  A lot will depend on how he fancies himself for the clay court season.  If he thinks he can do some damage there, he should take Miami easy and avoid overplaying.  But if he does not think he can do too well on clay, he may as well go all out in Miami and then take it easy on clay, while getting ready for Wimbledon.

If he can maintain his current form through Wimbledon, he will have a very realistic shot there.

Crazy. First set in 20+ minutes. Wow!

Another Fedrinka final. Stan the Man has an excellent chance for an IW trophy.

Yes Stan the Man has a great opportunity here.

I guess Federer still goes in as favourite - not least due to his 18-3 h2h superior record. Plus, AFAIK, all three wins by Stan have come on clay.

That said, if Stan's backhand is firing on all cylinders, then it could well be a first HC victory over his doubles partner.

laverfan wrote:Crazy. First set in 20+ minutes. Wow!

There's a good little video on the ATP website showing, in some detail, the pre-season training & fitness programme which Sock went through - and pretty tough it looked, I must say. These guys really do put in some serious work to be able to compete at this level of the sport.

But I guess nothing can quite prepare a young (-ish) player for the sort of blitz that Fed produced in that lightning-quick opening set .........

Here is what I get as the top 10 point getters over the last 9 months (i.e., from after last year's RG through now):

1. Murray - 8800pts
2. Wawrinka - 4445 (or 4845)
3. Djokovic - 4305
4. Raonic - 3715
5. Federer - 3635 (or 4035)
6. Cilic - 3215
7. Nishikori - 2930
8. Tsonga - 2725
9. Dimitrov - 2690
10. Monfils - 2355
...
13. Nadal - 2005

Takeaways:

1. Stan collected more points than Nole.  So, unless Nole gets his act together, Stan has a realistic shot at claiming No2 from Novak by the end of Roland Garros.  That would be something - just 12 months after Novak was proclaimed a shoo-in for the No1 for the next couple of years.

2. Fed has a realistic shot to be in top 4 (or maybe even top 2 ???) before Wimbledon - quite remarkable given that he is 35 and that he did not play a single match after Wimbledon last year.

3.  Murray looks all but certain to retain No 1 through the end of RG - which is what we all knew anyway.  If he does poorly during clay court season, his No 1 spot could become precarious shortly after Wimbledon.  But he would probably have to be quite poor on clay, and there is no indication that will happen.

Federer the Maestro has an excellent chance for another IW trophy.  Federer won his first IW title back in 2004 beating gentleman Tim and his last IW title in 2012 beating John marathon man Isner.

I fancy Stan for this one

If Fed's able to play freely with backhand v2 he's surely the overwhelming favourite. It'll be very interesting to see how his improved SHBH stacks up against the Stanimal!

What's nice to see is Fed seems to have found a rather zen frame of mind where while of course winning would be great he appreciates getting to the final is a huge positive in and of itself. This seems to me to be a player making peace with past demons and getting out of his own way, with the happy benefit that weaknesses his rivals have perhaps grown to count on (shanking backhands, getting a bit tight at inflexion points in the match) are allayed.

Interesting times for tennis!

Federer has always had a positive frame of mind, unlike for example Murray or Djokovic. Nadal too always gives his physical best.

Fed in two fairly comfortable sets.

Kyrgios I can see being the poor man's Agassi, winning at least one slam but also having years decimated by personal issues and motivation.

Well done to Jack Sock, however I can't see him going much further in the rankings.

Excellent form from roger

Very predictable pattern to their matches. Get Stan serving to stay in it and then just apply a tiny bit of pressure and he sprays it everywhere

He seems to shy away from federer but he stands up to Djokovic. Very much a mental puzzle is Stan

Things have changed a lot since 2004. Roger beat Andre Agassi and Tim Henman to win his first Indian Wells. Roddick, Coria, Moya and Hewitt were amongst the biggest name players in the draw. In a quick glance across the 32 seeds, apart from Federer, Feliciano Lopez played at both events, I don't see anyone else who was seeded at both. Rafa played IW 2004, but was not seeded at this point.

Was really impressed with nick this week. Which is the first time he has in many years
Shame he got ill but if he can behave like that as his default I truly can believe he'll be star soon

Federer vs Tim Henman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-eyLjvemow
It's an 18 min vid, but match point is at 12 min, I guess the rest is trophy ceremony.
Roger's movement back then is better than now. His backhand in this match was quite decent, although not quite with the bite of today.

I am happy to say that Federer is the best ever. Nadal was the only one really to challenge Federer for overall supremacy, but Nadal's style of play was not sustainable for his body off the clay.

temporary21 wrote:He seems to shy away from federer but he stands up to Djokovic. Very much a mental puzzle is Stan

I think that is slightly unfair to both Roger and Stan.  Some of it is a typical tennis match-up kind of thing.  Roger is a different puzzle for Stan than Nole is.  Stan likes to have time for his shots and Federer - more so than Nole - can take that away from him.  Novak's metronomic play - as good as it is - is a better fit for Stan.  So it may well be that Stan finds Roger a more difficult opponent than Nole, even if Nole more often than not wins in the Nole-Roger match-up.

With that same level Stan would've wiped the floor with Djokovic. Players like Federer just don't come along as often as workhorses like Djokovic.

Good win for Federer. I was hoping for three-setter, but Wawrinka gave up a good lead in the second set.

Really don't think he "gave it up" .... based on what I could see.

More a case of Federer quickly getting back to his pressing game after a blip on his part, coupled with Wawrinka's impressive start to the second set. Although ultimately all semantics I guess !

It was no classic, but both played very good tennis, no doubt.

I guess Stan really wanted that Indian Wells trophy. He had tears in his eyes and even called Roger an a-hole (I think mainly in jest).

It is a credit to the tournament that Stan cared so much.

kemet wrote:I guess Stan really wanted that Indian Wells trophy. He had tears in his eyes and even called Roger an a-hole (I think mainly in jest).

It is a credit to the tournament that Stan cared so much.

He was certainly emotional at the presentation ceremony. Surprisingly so, even.

And yes....that little jibe was very much in jest, judging from the youtube clip I have just re-watched.

All credit to Stan. He was effusive in his comments about Fed's game ("anyone who enjoys watching tennis enjoys watching Roger" said Stan)

Sadly for Stan, the h2h record v Fed on HC is now 15-0.

Just been watching some highlights of Fed's matches at IW. He seems to be playing as well as ever. It's a great pity that the top two in the rankings are not around at the moment as there's no chance to see how the "new-look" Rog would match up to them.