Wimbledon - Day 11 (Friday)

First topic message reminder :

UK start time of 1pm is 8am here in Chile, so pleased the first match is Cilic-Querrey which I'm slightly less interested in. I'll half watch it in between lie in, breakfast, shower, checking emails, finishing a few jobs etc. Then will sit down properly for Federer-Berdych.

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/schedule/index.html

Would not be surprised if both matches turned into straight set or easy 4 set wins for the favourites. I'm more looking forward to enjoying the quality of Cilic and Federer's play rather than expecting the underdogs to win, or a tight match. But you never know.

Looks like no rain forecast.

Fed has won close to 2/3 of the slam finals he has reached so far - 18 out of 28.  Out of those 28 slam finals, he reached four of them without dropping a set.  Somewhat oddly, his success rate in those four was worse - only 50%:

W06: Beat Nadal in 4
AO07: Beat Gonzalez in 3
W08: Lost to Nadal in 5
USO15: Lost to Djokovic in 4

Hopefully it will not go down to 40% on Sunday.  Fed has only won once without dropping a set - AO 2007.  It would be nice if he could repeat it now - just over ten years later - but I would take any win.

Im not interested in your bait SB. Ive got better things to do than play with people acting like kids on the internet.
Glad youve picked up, I know RG didnt offer you much. Your bloke will win at a canter.

temporary21 wrote:Your bloke will win at a canter.

I hope he will. One would think he should. But it's sports, anything can happen. If nothing else, could be an injury. Who would have thought that Stan "Zero Slams" Wawrinka would get his first win in 13 tries over Rafa in the AO final?

So yes I hope Fed cruises tomorrow, but Cilic could well win it.

summerblues wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:I think Federer actually retired at the end of last year and I'm trapped in some sort of dream world - consistently beating Rafa Nadal and winning a slam and reaching Wimbledon final at the age of 35?

I think you are trapped in temp's nightmare.

And CaledonianCraig it would seem. Not a fan of Federer and I'm glad it's cilic on sunday. Hopefully the croat can give him a run for his money.

But I'll add that I wouldn't mind either if Federer won. He is a great champion.

How odd Nadalnation. I have been adamant that the title has been Federer since post the QF - that is how much I acknowledge his greatness. I tell it as I see it.

I think Federer's slam final win rate is probably very poor against Nadal and Djokovic and very good against all others. Let me have a look.

Hope I've got this right.

Slam final win losses, from manual count up of wikipedia article Roger Federer career statistics

I make it:

Nadal 3-6
Djokovic 1-3
Murray 3-0
Others 11-1
Total 18-10

That 11-1 stat isn't great news for Cilic. Still, in his favour it was 11-0 and the last time Federer played a slam final against the non big four (Del Potro) he lost it. So the other 11 are a young Federer all from 2003 to 2009.

It's an interesting point HB. But you could equally do an analysis of Federers win loss ratio in finals over time and that would give a counter indication.

2003 - 1 win 0 loss
2004 - 3 - 0
2005 - 2 - 0
2006 - 3 - 1
2007 - 3 - 1
2008 - 1 - 2
2009 - 2 - 2
2010 - 1 - 0
2011 - 0 - 1
2012 - 1 - 0
2013 - 0 - 0
2014 - 0 - 2
2015 - 0 - 1
2016 - 0 - 0
2017 - 1 - 0

Think that's right...

Anyway it would suggest that as his career has gone on, he wins these finals less and less....whoever it is.

But then 2017 may just be a different kind of year.

My thought is that this could be a straight sets win or a 4 set win for Federer or it could be a 5 set win for either player. The one thing i dont see happening is the old man going down without a fight.

Or lets look at pertinent stats such as Federer's win to losses this years (24-2) compared to Cilic's (23-13). Pertinent facts such as Federer's grass court/Wimbledon pedigree compared to Cilic (no contest) or Federer's freshness (no clay court wear and tear and through in straight sets to the final) compared to Cilic.

What do you predict CC?  A 6-2 6-3 6-1 walkover or something a little more competitive 6-4 7-6 6-7 6-2?

I am not doubting Cilic will get his teeth into the sets but I see it as something like 7-6 6-4 6-3 to Federer.