Cincinnati

Started yesterday.

Rafa could play Muller in Rd3.

Thiem's quarter looks so weak with the withdrawal of Nishikori. Thiem/Querrey/Carreno Busta/Haase/Fognini/Ferrer/Verdasco/Johnson - all must like their chances of making the semi-final.

Fed v Khacnanov possible in Rd2 if Fed plays.

If Federer is really slightly injured rather than having just some aches and pains, I'm sure he'll withdraw. He has plenty of chances left to secure the YE #1 later this year.

And if he does withdraw, Nadal will be the only top 6 player in the draw - I wonder if that's ever happened before in a Masters 1000!

He has officially withdrawn due to back injury...
Ironic that the 10 points he lost by not playing the first match also cost him the #2 ranking and probably #2 seeding at the USO.
Let's hope both Murray and Federer will be fit in two weeks time, otherwise the 2017 season will have a bit of an anticlimax!

Federer Withdraws From Cincinnati

He missed USO last year, and perhaps will miss it this year too.

Congratulations to Nadal on #1.

Let's hope the Fed back problem is not too bad. Feel sure that if it's at all serious he will skip the USO. As Murray's participation is still in doubt, it could be that only one of the Big 4 will be in New York.
   A good spot by those of you who noticed he seemed in difficulty towards the end of the Montreal final.

@sfp I do hope it's not a season-ending injury :/

It's textbook stuff for an ageing tennis player - that's why you don't see players doing what Roger is doing. Consistency, form, fitness all start to become more and more difficult to rely on.

Del Potro beats Berdych and now has a section of the draw that looks winnable.

Goffin, Berdych, Anderson, Tsonga, Sock and RBA all out. Wonder how far A Zverev will go. No point in him doing himself in before the USO.
   Only just realised that Raonic withdrew. This must be the weakest field for a 1,000-pointer for many a year.

I think only four of the top sixteen in the world are in the tournament. Nadal and Zverev haven't played yet either.

Be quite surprised if Nadal doesn't win this. Think Zverev will tank early. Maybe Kyrgios or Del Potro have a chance?

One of C Harrison/Basilashvili/Ramanathan/Donaldon and one of Fabbiano/Khachanov/Sousa/Sugita will be making quarter finals, both in same half too.

A lot of lucky losers are really lucking in.

G82. Perhaps LL can be replaced with VLL (Very Lucky Loser) when the draw opens up for a guy who didn't actually qualify.
   You feel some better scheduling - no Washington tournament and a week between Toronto/Montreal and Cinci - would mean more of the big boys playing both the 1,000-pointers. Plenty of people, it seems, keeping their powder dry for the USO.

4 of the top 16 remain in the tournament, but 5 have already lost.

Can't have been many MS 1000 tournaments where 5 of the top 6 scratched though - I think even last year with the Olympics, both the Rogers Cup and Cinci had better attendance from the top players than this tournament.

I'm going for QF of:

Muller v Karlovic
Querrey v Zverev M
Donaldson v Isner
Lopez v Khachanov

Worryingly that wouldn't even require that many upsets!

Nadal v Kyrgios
Querrey v Ferrer
Isner v Donaldson
Khachanov v Del Potro

Just announced - Nishi out for the season with right wrist injury. They're dropping like flies at the moment. Hopefully all the guys now out injured will be able to return for the AO in January where there could be some interesting seeding.

Great win for Tiafoe to take out Zverev, albeit Zverev was struggling with fitness. Good to see another youngster making solid progress.

Zverev needs to better manage his schedule, but the loss is good in a way. He can rest before USO.

Zverev defeat not unexpected and, as L'fan says, probably for the best ahead of a Slam. This tournament is giving some lesser-ranked players a great chance to accumulate some serious points.

Hopefully some of the younger players can take advantage - Kyrgios, Thiem, Donaldson and Khachanov all have the chance to go deep here.

After Shapovalov last week too. All due respect etc, but seeing Querrey in the semi-finals of Wimbledon and Haase last week isn't quite as exciting as some youngsters making a breakthrough.

Rain means Rafa, among others, faces two matches in one day. Dimi beat delpo while the Ferrer revival continues. Donaldson, of whom good things are being said, is thru', as is Isner.

I suspect the rain helps Rafa. I can't see Kyrgios beating Karlovic and Rafa on the same day, think he'd need to be 100% on it to stand a chance against Rafa and guess he wont have the concentration. Especially as he's likely to have a tight match with Karlovic.

Ferrer is 2.6 to beat Thiem. Buying money. Ferrer playing well and Thiem not so much.

I'd probably agree with that if Nick was playing someone other than Ivo. As it is, they are midway through the first set and won't have any rallies at all. If Nick can win in straights, he should just be nicely warmed up. In contrast, Rafa will have some long rallies with Ramos which are likely to take a bit out of him.

I don't think it is physically Kyrgios would struggle (although he has been injured a lot recently), but likely at least one tie-break v Karlovic will be mentally draining. He has issues showing up mentally for one match, can't see him doing it against Rafa having done it earlier in the day. Lets be honest too, even if he shows up 100% it still may not be enough.

Expect Rafa to roll-over ARV - 3 & 2 or similar. Don't see that he offers anything to hurt Rafa.

Kyrgios beats Nadal in straight sets - 6-2, 7-5 - with a bit of Kyrgios double-faults allowing Nadal save MP at 5-4.

Kyrgios dominated.  Rafa was not very good.  His form has been seemingly declining since after RG.  He looked fantastic there.  I thought he looked ok, in spite of losses, vs Muller and Shapovalov.  But the two matches I saw this week - vs Gasquet and tonight - I thought he looked very poor in both of them (though credit to Kyrgios also, he was quite good today).

Also, is it just me or is Rafa showing more irritation when things are not going his way?  I remember in the past he always looked so positive no matter what the score.  But vs Muller in the fifth set he really looked like he hated being dragged so deep into the match.  Likewise today, he seemed more frustrated than he would in similar situations a few years back.

Well, there were some, including me, who doubted whether Kyrgios could win twice in a day when the second match would be Rafa. 
   Interesting that in both his recent defeats Rafa has said he played poorly. I would have expected him to go far deeper in these two tournaments than he has. He'll be number one again on Monday. Not sure he's ever been particularly comfortable at number one. When he was first at number two, he constantly beat Rog. Then when Rafa did get to number one he had a string of defeats at the hands of the then number two - Djoko.
   Now at Cinci, are we going to get a Dimi-Kyrgios final or will it be a 30-something battle between Isner and David (Duracell Bunny) Ferrer ?

I think Rafa was irritated not with the match dragging on or what, but simply irritated with himself for playing so badly and couldn't turn things around. He's obviously playing badly, had misfired so many of his shots etc.

I guess at 31 and had to play two matches in a day with only five hours in between was too much to ask for. Had this been at the beginning of the year, I don't think it's a problem for him, but now after the year that he had, and having played 56 matches prior to the ARV match, it's a bit too much to ask from him. He's also getting on in age, and Im not surprised that physical fatigue had set in. He didn't look great at Montreal too, and had reverted to more defensive play (playing from further behind the baseline) and rarely moved inside the court, unlike during the clay season; a sign of him not feeling too confident about his game (I think it's because of physical fatigue more than anything else. No report of any injury issues).

Identical semi-final scorelines, with no breaks in either match, mean it's a Dimi-Kyrgios final and a new Masters tournament winner. I'd make Dimi favourite, but only just.
   These two are fairly similar. Both are capable of excellent tennis, but both can lose to almost anyone. It seems they have to get interested in a tournament to advance.
   Saw a few clips of the Rafa-Kyrgios match and Rafa was, as BLB says, retreating behind the baseline a lot. Still, a good showing at the USO by the Spaniard will offset these Montreal/Cinci disappointments.
   The big news over the next few days will be just who actually manages to turn up in New York.

I would actually see Kyrgios as favourite, but of course there's no certainty that the focus / composure he showed in his victory over Rafa will be maintained. If Dimitrov can start strongly and maybe grab an early break, then Kryrgios could become unsettled, as he so often does.

On Rafa ...... I don't think it's too much of a surprise to see him exit at both Montreal and Cincy, simply because it's pretty rare that he performs strongly in this part of the season. Of the 70+ main tour titles collected since turning pro, only a very, very small percentage have come in the post-Wimbledon period. That said, he is of course a double USO winner, so we know he is perfectly capable of going deep - or even adding a third title, thus solidifying his new Number 1 ranking. Should be interesting - but with Djokovic and current champ Wawrinka confirmed absentees, let's hope that both Murray & Fed are fit to go.

Montreal and Cincinnati are faster than USO and do create a challenge for Nadal. Big-hitters/servers are also a problem that Nadal does not like facing. USO should be his main focus.

Nadal has 16 HC, 53 Clay and 4 on Grass titles out of 73 total, with a career W/L of 77% on HC vs 92% on Clay.

@laverfan - yes, I would expect Rafa to be 'up for it' at the USO, not only because it's a Slam but because he is going into it fully fit, injury-free.

Note your stats on the breakdown of titles. My point was more about how often he seems to flag towards the second half of the season. Since turning pro back in 2001, there have only been four years when he has won anything meaningful in the post-Wimbledon spell ..... which is rather skewed for a player of his pedigree.

While we wait for the men's final, news that Mug has beaten Halep in the women's final - with the loss of just ONE GAME. Third time that Halep has been within one win of the top ranking, but will have to stay second for now.

First set Dimi!

A good straight-sets win for Dimi although Kyrgios, according to the post-match comments, seemed pleased with his overall tournament performance.
   Puts both players in a good place for the USO. Hoping that Fed and Murray can show up.

Are Dimitrov and Kyrgios both serious contenders at USO?

I would make Federer favourite, assuming he is fit.

After that could realistically see any of Murray, Nadal, Zverev, Kyrgios, Dimitrov or Cilic winning it. Probably the most open slam in a long time.

Yes, it's not easy to predict a winner although things might be a little clearer when we actually know who's going to show up.
   We could get a first-time GS winner.

Guest82 wrote:Are Dimitrov and Kyrgios both serious contenders at USO?

I would make Federer favourite, assuming he is fit.

After that could realistically see any of Murray, Nadal, Zverev, Kyrgios, Dimitrov or Cilic winning it. Probably the most open slam in a long time.

Assuming everyone arrives at the start of the tournament reasonably match fit (if not match sharp in the case of Murray), I'd say the likely winners fall into the following groups:

Federer

Murray - Nadal

Zverev - Cilic

Kyrgios - Dimitrov - Raonic

Thiem - Del Potro (because he's done it before)

The rest