England Versus Australia 18th November 2017 3pm k.o.

First topic message reminder :

A resurgent Wallabies arrive in town with a great opportunity to halt their run of defeats to England. They are in much better current form and are looking sharp. EJs is trying to test out a few new players and rotate his Lions with a long term RWC view. He has said he will take the odd defeat along the way if it helps develop the side longer term. I think this Sat could be one of those defeats.

I do agree with seeing how some different players cope and do not disagree with his approach. Therefore, we need to see Williams, George, Watson (at 15) all start. If Teo was fit I would also go Farrell at 10 and Teo at 12 with Slade at 13 (deserves 1 more go despite being poor on Sat).  

Once these AIs are over then I think the time for experimenting is done and we then play each match as if it is our last. This will enable the combinations to bed in and be battle hardened for RWC 2019.

Team: Watson, May, Joseph, Farrell, Daly; Ford, Youngs; M Vunipola, Hartley, Cole; Launchbury, Lawes; Robshaw, Underhill, Hughes.

Replacements: George, Marler, Williams, Itoje, Simmonds, Care, Slade, Rokoduguni.



Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia; 1 Scott Sio, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 3 Sekope Kepu, 4 Rob Simmons, 5 Adam Coleman, 6 Ned Hanigan, 7 Michael Hooper, 8 Sean McMahon
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Ben McCalman, 21 Lopeti Timani, 22 Nick Phipps, 23 Kurtley Beale, 24 Henry Speight*

*one to be omitted

Going by the bickering on here and the performance last week I'm guessing you lot aren't overly confident ?

I think generally players want to play every game, it's that competitive spirit.

You could see that obviously Farrell Jr was annoyed about missing the Argentina game.

IMO they don't seem to acknowledge when they might be a bit tired/not fully fit - it's up to the coach to make the call.

Lawes isn't going to say to Mallinder, hey mate, can you take me off now please?

An enforced rest might annoy the player but it should help their overall health and mean they aren't overworked.

Player welfare is obviously important.


munkian no not really confident. Australia are in good form, England aren't and flattered to deceive in the 6 nations bar 1 good game.

Australia are obviously beatable but not going to be easy.

I'd say it's 55-45% in England's favour.

I think a lot will depend on how the starting front five does and the impact of the bench - if both underperform we could be in big trouble.

I am. There's bickering as there's 3 or 4 quality players in pretty much every position.

munkian wrote:Going by the bickering on here and the performance last week I'm guessing you lot aren't overly confident ?

I would say we have a 75% chance of victory.

Is it worth reading the last 3 pages?

Erm.

LondonTiger wrote:Is it worth reading the last 3 pages?

Itoje will win 75% of the game with 13% of the possession.... that's the best synopsis I can come up with...

Has the Oz team been posted?
If not - here it is -
Australia: Beale; Koroibete, Kuridrani, Kerevi, Hodge; Foley, Genia; Sio, Polota-Nau, Kepu, Simmons, Coleman, Hanigan, Hooper, McMahon.

Replacements: Moore, Robertson, Alaalatoa, Philip, McCalman, Timani, Phipps, Hunt, Speight.

Saturday is looking a real tough ask, though everyone appears to expect England to be able to produce a performance.
This might get ugly.

If England play to their potential I would have it 50/50 as Aus have been in fine form recently. If England play how they did last week then it could get ugly

I'd fancy us by at least a score.

Pocock and Folau have always been huge thorns in our side(perhaps last season aside when Haskell did a job on Pocock), and with those missing I don't see a huge threat.

We have a better pack so I expect us to put a marker down from the off.

If England play their best we'll win extremely comfortably.

No 7&1/2 wrote:If England play their best we'll win extremely comfortably.

I am going to save this for posterity :-) What would you define as "extremely comfortably" don't worry - I'll come back to take my verbal kicking if you are right

15 points at least. I believe we will play better than last week at least. The belief that you think if we play well we only stand a 50 50 chance against a best playing Australia I don't understand though. What are you basing that on?

Recent form and that Aus are a cohesive team, England are still fiddling bout trying to decide what is their best team thats all

Its just an opinion but I don't see England at the moment being any better than Aus are right now

TJ wrote:Recent form and that Aus are a cohesive team, England are still fiddling bout trying to decide what is their best team thats all

Its just an opinion but I don't see England at the moment being any better than Aus are right now

Can't agree with that at all. Injuries and blooding new players is the reason, jones has made clear he wants 3 players in each position

A combination of injuries, suspension's, rested and fatigued players means we're not at our full strength and yet we may learn more from from this position than we might otherwise do?
I would definitely have preferred to see Lawes and Daly rested, offering opportunities to others.

Ah. So hold the quote tj. You said if England play their best. You're rephrasing to say you expect more of the form shown against argentina. If we play our best were a good deal better than Australia at their best. I'd also add despite them playing well last week they're missing their best 2 players and Wales were well in the game.

I am generally quietly confident whenever England face anyone except the All Blacks.

I've wondered a bit about last week - but for all that went wrong, England were largely in control of the game. The key issue was that Slade's communication with the outside backs wasn't working. There were several promising attacks that failed because of a badly timed last pass, with players running for a flat pass but receiving a deep one.

This week we have bolstered the locks and with Farrell back in midfield it should run more smoothly. I am slightly worried about starting with Mako in the scrum without George, but only a little.

The crucial question -as Eddie has pinpointed - is whether Underhill can go toe-to-toe with Hooper, and I suspect he can. Hooper is a good player but when playing without Pocock England have been able to contain him well in the past.

Oh, and Wales - even depleted - had their chances to win last week, and probably would have done but for the weird power that the green and gold shirt seems to hold over the whole of Cymru. Perhaps England should adopt a green and gold change strip instead of a grey one....

If we play our best were a good deal better than Australia at their best

this is where i disagree. Its just opinion tho. England at their best compared to Aus right now I would have 50/50 as this is the best Aus team we have seen for a while even if a little weakened

england as they are now ( last week) compared to Aus as they are now - humping time

Its just an opinion. Aus are 2pts behind England in the rankings.

Based on 1 loss in 19 is it? 20? Including 4 on the bounce vs australia under jones? Is this another under rating like vunipola? You think england are worse than wales?

Will losing to Ozy at this stage be such am issue? No need to panic as long as the performance is credible.

TJ wrote:

If we play our best were a good deal better than Australia at their best

this is where i disagree.  Its just opinion tho.  England at their best compared to Aus right now I would have 50/50 as this is the best Aus team we have seen for a while even if a little weakened

england as they are now ( last week) compared to Aus as they are now - humping time

Its just an opinion.  Aus are 2pts behind England in the rankings.

One victory over the AB's doesn't make you the best team on the planet, unless its in the final of the RWC. We found that out a few years ago.

Australia are also missing their two indisputibly world class players for this weekend.

TJ wrote:

If we play our best were a good deal better than Australia at their best

this is where i disagree.  Its just opinion tho.  England at their best compared to Aus right now I would have 50/50 as this is the best Aus team we have seen for a while even if a little weakened

england as they are now ( last week) compared to Aus as they are now - humping time

Its just an opinion.  Aus are 2pts behind England in the rankings.

I guess it puts Scotland into perspective too. Almost losing to Samoa (at home) and being beaten by Fiji.

It seems we have different ambitions.

TJ wrote:

If we play our best were a good deal better than Australia at their best

this is where i disagree.  Its just opinion tho.  England at their best compared to Aus right now I would have 50/50 as this is the best Aus team we have seen for a while even if a little weakened

england as they are now ( last week) compared to Aus as they are now - humping time

Its just an opinion.  Aus are 2pts behind England in the rankings.

To be fair though, you thought England would only beat Argentina by 6 so I'll take the prediction/judgements with a pinch of salt.

Fair points from TJ.

It may come back to bite me, but I don't think Aus have been playing that well. Admitably we haven't been on fire but we're due a good game. I'd say we have a 7pt advantage going into the game, anything closer is a relative success for Aus.

Their form is definitely exaggerated. They only have one real team to play in the rugby championship. Great result to beat them but Ireland have just showed how bad drawing with SA twice is.

Somehow gone from losing 3-0 at home to being favourites if England play at their best? I don't think so.

TJ wrote:Recent form and that Aus are a cohesive team, England are still fiddling bout trying to decide what is their best team thats all

No idea what you're basing that on. Recent form is we've both won a game in the Autumn, Aus beat NZ while Englands out of competition tests were beating Argentina twice with a second team (in Argentina), and England won the 6N while Aus got pumped in the Rugby Championship (pumped is strong, failing to beat SA twice isn't).  

Corresponding lineups from last year.

2016........................................ 2017
Mako Vunipola........................... Mako Vunipola
Dylan Hartley............................ Dylan Hartley
Dan Cole...................................Dan Cole
Courtney Lawes .........................Courtney Lawes
George Kruis..............................Joe Launchbury
Chris Robshaw ...........................Chris Robshaw
Tom Wood..................................Sam Underhill
Nathan Hughes............................Nathan Hughes
Ben Youngs.................................Ben Youngs
George Ford ...............................George Ford
Jonny May...................................Jonny May
Owen Farrell.................................Owen Farrell
Jonathan Joseph...........................Jonathan Joseph
Marland Yarde..............................Elliot Daly
Mike Brown..................................Anthony Watson

                           

Scott Sio......................................Scott Sio
Stephen Moore..............................Tatafu Polota-Nau
Sekope Kepu.................................Sekope Kepu
Kane Douglas................................Adam Coleman
Rob Simmons................................Rob Simmons
David Pocock.................................Ned Hanigan
Michael Hooper..............................Michael Hooper
Lopeti Timani.................................Sean Mcmahon
Nick Phipps....................................Will Genia
Bernard Foley.................................Bernard Foley
Sefa Naivalu...................................Reece Hodge
Reece Hodge...................................Samu Kerevi
Tevita Kuridrani..............................Tevita Kuridrani
Dane Haylett-Petty...........................Marika Koroibete
Israel Folau.....................................K Beale

England have 1 change in the pack and 2 in the backline.

Australia have 4 changes in the pack and 4 in the backline. They've also made a positional change (Hodge) and they've changed their captain.

It will probably be the Bernard Foley show!

I don't think England have played particularly well this year.

Expectation by England fans is that England will turn it on but hasn't happened often enough this year.

Australia are a much bigger challenge than Argentina.

I guess the consolation if we do lose is that I don't think it's our best starting XV.

It's as if England's poor performances in the 6 nations have been eradicated from the memory of fans.

Sure we smashed Scotland but that was 1 game vs a side that struggles really badly at Twickenham.

What about best 23. Haven't seen many games where's it's been 15 each side.

beshocked wrote:I don't think England have played particularly well this year.

Expectation by England fans is that England will turn it on but hasn't happened often enough this year.

Australia are a much bigger challenge than Argentina.

I guess the consolation if we do lose is that I don't think it's our best starting XV.

It's as if England's poor performances in the 6 nations have been eradicated from the memory of fans.

Sure we smashed Scotland but that was 1 game vs a side that struggles really badly at Twickenham.

We have a much better pack, and some of their star names in the backline are out. We are a very hard team to beat even when we play badly, Australia are flaky with an unreliable boot. We are at home, having beaten them 3-0 away last year and won another game. We did win the 6 Nations even if the performances were a step down from the previous year.

As an English fan, one of the few top sides I don’t really fear is Australia. It’s true their form has recently improved a bit (altho from a pretty low level) and maybe England’s has waned a little (possibly due to a few injuries), which may level the playing field somewhat – but a betting man must favour England against Aus at home. I’d be shocked if we lost (no pun intended).

I love how every team we beat somehow scores a moral victory. England are forever playing poorly whilst the opposition probably deserved to win.

I do agree that England have not played often enough to their full potential. But let's be clear here. We HAVE been better than our opposition in 21 of the last 22 games. I see nothing to suggest that this trend isn't going to continue. If you insist on picking apart England's shortcomings, then you need to do the same for Australia, and christ, there's enough of those.

People are worried in case England don't up their game? That's only an issue if Australia bring their A game, and I'm struggling to understand the thinking behind that being a foregone conclusion?

Scottrf wrote:

beshocked wrote:I don't think England have played particularly well this year.

Expectation by England fans is that England will turn it on but hasn't happened often enough this year.

Australia are a much bigger challenge than Argentina.

I guess the consolation if we do lose is that I don't think it's our best starting XV.

It's as if England's poor performances in the 6 nations have been eradicated from the memory of fans.

Sure we smashed Scotland but that was 1 game vs a side that struggles really badly at Twickenham.

We have a much better pack, and some of their star names in the backline are out. We are a very hard team to beat even when we play badly, Australia are flaky with an unreliable boot. We are at home, having beaten them 3-0 away last year and won another game. We did win the 6 Nations even if the performances were a step down from the previous year.

I thought our pack performed poorly vs Argentina and Australia's pack did much better vs Wales.

England have looked beatable, it's just at times we've been fortunate to play teams who can't capitalise on it.

Yes we beat Australia last year but our form was better then.

Ireland did capitalise.

Argentina missed I think 6 kicks at goal, that's ridiculous.  

13 point win flattered England.

Sure it's a big relief Pocock is out but still....


Australia beat Wales more comfortably in their last game than England did vs Wales in their last game.

Australia also beat NZ.

Let's not underestimate them just because of last year's 3-0.

Remember we got hammered by Aussies in 2015 RWC, Things can change in a year.

Australia have gone up and down then up again - the only consistency of the Aussies is beating Wales.... in the last few years...

beshocked wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

beshocked wrote:I don't think England have played particularly well this year.

Expectation by England fans is that England will turn it on but hasn't happened often enough this year.

Australia are a much bigger challenge than Argentina.

I guess the consolation if we do lose is that I don't think it's our best starting XV.

It's as if England's poor performances in the 6 nations have been eradicated from the memory of fans.

Sure we smashed Scotland but that was 1 game vs a side that struggles really badly at Twickenham.

We have a much better pack, and some of their star names in the backline are out. We are a very hard team to beat even when we play badly, Australia are flaky with an unreliable boot. We are at home, having beaten them 3-0 away last year and won another game. We did win the 6 Nations even if the performances were a step down from the previous year.

I thought our pack performed poorly vs Argentina and Australia's pack did much better vs Wales.

England have looked beatable, it's just at times we've been fortunate to play teams who can't capitalise on it.

Yes we beat Australia last year but our form was better then.

Ireland did capitalise.

Argentina missed I think 6 kicks at goal, that's ridiculous.  

13 point win flattered England.

Sure it's a big relief Pocock is out but still....

Plus Wales shot themselves in the balls against you in the last minutes of the game.

You know you're doing well when away wins against tier 1 nations are a point of criticism.

munkian wrote:

beshocked wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

beshocked wrote:I don't think England have played particularly well this year.

Expectation by England fans is that England will turn it on but hasn't happened often enough this year.

Australia are a much bigger challenge than Argentina.

I guess the consolation if we do lose is that I don't think it's our best starting XV.

It's as if England's poor performances in the 6 nations have been eradicated from the memory of fans.

Sure we smashed Scotland but that was 1 game vs a side that struggles really badly at Twickenham.

We have a much better pack, and some of their star names in the backline are out. We are a very hard team to beat even when we play badly, Australia are flaky with an unreliable boot. We are at home, having beaten them 3-0 away last year and won another game. We did win the 6 Nations even if the performances were a step down from the previous year.

I thought our pack performed poorly vs Argentina and Australia's pack did much better vs Wales.

England have looked beatable, it's just at times we've been fortunate to play teams who can't capitalise on it.

Yes we beat Australia last year but our form was better then.

Ireland did capitalise.

Argentina missed I think 6 kicks at goal, that's ridiculous.  

13 point win flattered England.

Sure it's a big relief Pocock is out but still....

Plus Wales shot themselves in the balls against you in the last minutes of the game.

Well actually I'd say England had the momentum, England won it, not Wales losing.

If you look at Wales' position, they were completely on the backfoot. Kicking to clear their lines under pressure.

It was too close for comfort though.


That performance vs France was dire for example. Oh but they are top tier.... France are not one of the best sides in the world....

Now you can't necessarily a world class performance every game but still...


Winning 19 out of 20 doesn't change that the performances this year in general haven't been great.

Beshocked, you point out Argentina missed 6 kicks, and then say a 13 point win flattered England.

You cannot have it both ways. Missing six kicks is terrible and a direct indicator of how poor ARGENTINA were. Because Argentina were so poor, even with England playing below their potential they were comfortably better than Argentina and deserved the win. England never looked like losing that game. Comfortable.

I think like a lot of sports Rugby can be a bit 'rock-paper-scissors'. We have generally done very well against Oz over the last few years, in the same way that sometimes we struggle against Wales and Wales always finds a way to lose against Oz.

Looking at the Australian back row they have a new young beanpole and two known quantities. Hooper - lethal when it comes to turnovers from isolated backs and otherwise a decent center, and McMahon - a decent player but very much Pocock light and another lightweight. This suggests that as usual the Australian tight forwards are going to have to do a lot of work against a better England 5 with minimal help from their backrow.

In other words unless they manage a new 'innovative strategy' their pack is in for a long afternoon. If they get the ball moving out they are going to be, as ever, very dangerous, but our defense is good. Underhill is going to be very busy

No question, this is the measure of where England are (given we're not playing the ABs).

Australia playing well narrowly beat Wales; England playing badly narrowly beat Wales in the 6N. Both teams have recorded several victories over Argentina.

I suspect the decisive factors will be whether Australia's new scrum is all that, and which side adapts to the new breakdown laws faster.

They won't move it out, they will look to hit it up the middle and tire us out that way. For all the plaudits they seem to be attracting for their recent performances I thought they were pretty turgid against Wales. They were there for the taking only Wales weren't good enough to execute. They also conceded 13 pens to Wales' 3 and the Aus scrum disintegrated towards the end of the game. It's sport, anything can happen. But based on what HAS happened, I'm not seeing anything to worry about.

cascough not really. It's as simple as Argentina kicking better to improve.

Conceding 13-3 penalties and still winning by more than a converted try is impressive.

lostinwales it's a bit of a myth that we've struggled vs Wales. We just don't dominate Wales like we do Scotland or Italy for example.

I just feel Australia are being underestimated.

England aren't easy to beat, true but then again the performances haven't exactly been electric.

Let's not build up Argentina too much - they are 10th in the world.

Australia as 3rd in the world will be a step up. It's important England up their performance accordingly.

beshocked wrote:cascough not really. It's as simple as Argentina kicking better to improve.

Conceding 13-3 penalties and still winning by more than a converted try is impressive.

lostinwales it's a bit of a myth that we've struggled vs Wales. We just don't dominate Wales like we do Scotland or Italy for example.

I just feel Australia are being underestimated.

England aren't easy to beat, true but then again the performances haven't exactly been electric.

Let's not build up Argentina too much - they are 10th in the world.

Australia as 3rd in the world will be a step up. It's important England up their performance accordingly.

Not at all. I gave them a 25% chance to win. Just was disagreeing with them being seen as favourites.

Wales is a funny one. We have had a lot of dominant performances since that game in Cardiff, but sometimes the 'dominant' bit doesn't last 80 minutes and Wales have a habit of making a lot out of those moments, especially late on in games.

Wales find new ways to lose vs Oz, we sometimes find ways to lose to Wales and Oz find ways to lose vs England.

25% is underestimating them IMO.

I don't think Australia are favourites but it's going to be closer than many think.

England's best is probably superior to Australia's best but I think it's more likely to see a better performance from Australia than vice versa.

Play like we did vs Argentina and we'll lose.

I just don't see where all the optimism comes from when our performance from the starting front five bar Mako and Lawes was flat.

You seriously think putting Launchbury instead of Kruis is going to sufficiently energise and strengthen the front five?

Not as if Launchbury is known for a) lineout proficiency b) scrummaging proficiency

I wouldn't even say his form this season warrants a start but each to their own I guess.

I worry that 3 of the starting five aren't in good enough form.

Why is it Launchbury is decided only on setpiece and we can ignore vunipola? And tbf Launchbury is the best lock we have.

So you think having two players not known for their set piece will strengthen the set piece?

Good logic....

Launchbury didn't win MOTM last week did he?


If Launchbury is such a good lock why was he left behind for the Lions?

It's funny that Jones has two Lions on the bench....

Only in your own mind is Launchbury the best lock we have.

He's currently 3rd at the moment.

At risk of another Launchbury is a very classy lock.

As has been stated frequently Argentina manufactured one chance for a try late on in the game which they scored from, but it was at a time when their chances of winning had gone. From what I can remember I cannot recall another time that they got into our 22.

The 'rubbish' bits of our performance was really down to lack of cohesion in attack and too many handling errors. Slade's passing radar going missing and Lawes getting stripped of the ball are very 'visible' events but those problems did not extend to all aspects of our game.

Now Oz will have a more dangerous attack than Argentina, no doubts about that, but they are still going to have to work very hard to create opportunities, and if the keep on giving penalties away like they did last week then Farrell will have a field day.