Australian Open 2018 - Day 5 & 6

Tournament hots up today, both literally (temperatures up to 40c forecast) and metaphorically, as we get to the stage of tournament when the seeded players start to play each other. Over on Rod Laver Arena, Dimitrov has a tricky encounter with Rublev - Dimitrov will really have to step things up in this match - I think he'll prevail but I can see Rublev pushing him hard. Potential match of the day comes in the Kyrgios vs Tsonga encounter - I'm going for the young Aussie to win in 4 tight sets, including couple of tie-breaks.

I think Nadal will beat Dzumhur in straight sets relatively comfortably, conserving energy for future rounds, Cilic should have too much for Harrison and Seppi should outlast Karlovic. Edmund ought to be favourite against Basilashvili, provided he deals with the heat OK - Kyle needs to keep his serving percentages up as they've been so far and keep the rallies short.

Edmund vs Seppi - Last 16

I was listening to The Tennis Podcast (a good listen, by the way) and they seem to think that Nadal asked to play the night match on Margaret Court rather than a day match on RLA (as Kyrgios v Tsonga was always likely to be night match there - but Kyrgios always asks to play on Hisense!) due to not wanting to play in the heat. Also they said Djokovic ASKED to play a day match against Monfils as he figured he would handle the heat better than Monfils (as it proved).

Is this fair? Big players asking for favourable things? Surely Monfils would have preferred cooler conditions to give himself the best chance against Djokovic. Maybe Dzumhur would have had a better chance playing Nadal in the blistering heat?

Guest

I've no issue with them asking, but it shouldn't be granted if their opponent doesn't agree with the request.

I think it's a bigger issue at the AO than other tournaments because of the difference in playing conditions between day and night sessions, not just the temperature per se but also that conditions generally are slower in the night session, so it can change the balance of a match.

A quick word on Edmund: the lad has done really well to take advantage of his good R1 win, and clearly has a good chance or reaching the QFs. His best hope there though is that Kyrgios and Tsonga beat each other up (which they are doing), and then the winner takes a lot out of Dimitrov. Ranking back up into the mid 40s (projected 43, but a couple of guys below could pass him) if he loses to Seppi and potentially into the mid 30s with one more win

Guest82 wrote:I was listening to The Tennis Podcast (a good listen, by the way) and they seem to think that Nadal asked to play the night match on Margaret Court rather than a day match on RLA (as Kyrgios v Tsonga was always likely to be night match there - but Kyrgios always asks to play on Hisense!) due to not wanting to play in the heat.  Also they said Djokovic ASKED to play a day match against Monfils as he figured he would handle the heat better than Monfils (as it proved).

Is this fair?  Big players asking for favourable things?   Surely Monfils would have preferred cooler conditions to give himself the best chance against Djokovic.  Maybe Dzumhur would have had a better chance playing Nadal in the blistering heat?

Blistering heat would give Dzumbur a better chance.really ??.. Nadal is Spanish have you seen some of the temperatures in Spain in the height of the summer..I would not have put money on that one

Very good predictions MrInvisible! What are your thoughts on tomorow's matches?

MrInvisible wrote:Tournament hots up today, both literally (temperatures up to 40c forecast) and metaphorically, as we get to the stage of tournament when the seeded players start to play each other.  Over on Rod Laver Arena, Dimitrov has a tricky encounter with Rublev - Dimitrov will really have to step things up in this match - I think he'll prevail but I can see Rublev pushing him hard.  Potential match of the day comes in the Kyrgios vs Tsonga encounter - I'm going for the young Aussie to win in 4 tight sets, including couple of tie-breaks.

I think Nadal will beat Dzumhur in straight sets relatively comfortably, conserving energy for future rounds, Cilic should have too much for Harrison and Seppi should outlast Karlovic.  Edmund ought to be favourite against Basilashvili, provided he deals with the heat OK - Kyle needs to keep his serving percentages up as they've been so far and keep the rallies short.

I was impressed with Edmund handling the heat and the 5 sets to reach the 4th round - great stuff. Further routine win for Nadal - he's certainly conserved energy, and is looking in good form. Cilic is looking dangerous though. Good wins too for Dimitrov and Kyrgios against tough opponents - Dimitrov has added a real steeliness to his game of late - yes there's still a few too many lapses, but he's developed a way of prevailing when he would have crumbled in the past. Tsonga got involved (understandably so) in a heated exchange with a spectator who was trying to put him off, whilst Kyrgios stayed out of the limelight, played some clutch tennis on the big points and got the job done. Good to see Karlovic still in there, pushing Seppi v hard during a 5 setter.

Moving onto today's matches, with the draws being a bit uneven (partly down to seeds falling early in addition to the draw itself) there's a few matches which feel they're coming a round or 2 too early. In the womens the marquee match today must surely be Sharapova v Kerber which has makings of a tough 3 setter - I'm going for Kerber, just. The all Czech battle of Safarova vs Pliskova also could be close.

Moving onto the mens' matches, I don't think Gasquet will get steamrollered by Federer, but I don't see him winning either - either straight sets for Fed (with 2 tight sets) or 4 sets for Federer, as Gasquet is in decent form (beat Nadal for 1st time ever recently!). Zverev should dispatch Chung without too much fuss whilst I think Thiem could struggle against the flatter hitting of Mannarino who can be a tricky opponent - I think Thiem will win another 5 setter here, but a win for the Frenchman wouldn't surprise me. I think Djokovic should beat Ramos Vinolas in 4 sets, whilst I will go for Del Potro to beat Berdych in 4 sets, based on the Argentinian's slightly superior head-to-head. I reckon Fognini v Benneteau will go to 5 sets, with the Italian edging it.

Davis v Halep is going, and going, and going. Neither wants to win. Davis has blown three match points on Halep's serve.

PS: Halep wins 15-13 in third, 3:45 minutes match time.

Halep said she was "dead" after that marathon. But she won't have to play Barty next after the Australian was knocked out.
   A Zverev is out, beaten in five by Chung after being two sets to one up. Heat get to him? Another disappointing GS for the German, who has only passed a GS third round once.
  Hats off to Mr I for a brilliant prediction that Fognini would win in five. Could be a late night for Fed, as the long matches on Rod Laver have pushed back the evening session, with Sharapova-Kerber hardly likely to be a short match.
   Delpo and Berdych have just started and that could be another marathon. (4-2 to Berdych in first set after a flurry of broken serves)

* Ignore that bit about Zverev and the heat. Apparently, it's been much cooler in Melbourne today and it might even rain soon, although the show courts have roofs.

The story of the day so far probably Zverev's loss to Chung - wonder if the young German has issue with physical conditioning or if its a question of mental toughness at the very highest level.  He's got plenty of time on his side, but for the 2nd successive slam he's lost early to another up and coming (but much lower ranked) player.

In the doubles, Jamie Murray and Soares lost today, although Hewitt and Groth are up a set but down a break in 2nd set in their match against 3rd seeds Rojer and Tecau.  Berdych has now taken a 2 set lead against Del Potro.  I'm expecting Del Po to come roaring back in 3rd set to prolong things for a bit but I can't see him coming from 2 sets down to win this one.  Djokovic up a set against Ramos-Vinolas and in the womens' Kerber is racing away with the match against Sharapova.  If she goes on to win this match comfortably, Kerber has to be a big favourite for the title.  

Looking ahead to 4th round and beyond, despite a few seeds missing and/or losing early on, there's quite a bit of quality in there and we certainly won't be having a repeat of US Open with a big surprise finalist. The 4th round line up does have a couple of surprises, Sandgren who's the big beneficiary of Wawrinka's injury woes and will be up against Thiem, and the Hungarian Fucsovics who's likely to be up against Federer in 4th round.

The (ahem) quality of Wilander’s commentary / punditry goes from bad to worse (I would say that only Pat Cash is more useless in terms of adding value to the pictures)

Unfortunately he’s currently doing the Federer v Gasquet match on Eurosport. He’s been in Fed-worship mode so far (though he can change his tune in the blink of an eye, as we have witnessed so often in the past).

Two particular bits of standout nonsense from him, amongst many .......

1. Federer is ‘even better’ this year than he was last year. Eh .... ? We’re just a couple of weeks into the season, so what evidence do you have for that assessment .....

2. Federer is looking better than Nadal. Eh .... ? How on earth can you come to that conclusion

Well he has never liked Nadal has he ? so that is how he comes to that conclusion..the one slam wonder appears to know next to nothing about the modern game and with his bias towards Federer he knows he is on safe ground

Haddie-nuff wrote:Well he has never liked Nadal has he ? so that is how he comes to that conclusion..the one slam wonder appears to know next to nothing about the modern game and with his bias towards Federer he knows he is on safe ground

I was initially a tad confused by your post until I realised that you’re referring to Cash ..... whereas I was talking mainly about Wilander.

Wilander deserves respect for having been a very high achiever of course, and is in a totally different league from Cash. I’ve never really noticed whether or not Cash likes Nadal (most of what he says just passes me by !) but I do know that Wilander can certainly be equally as complimentary about Rafa as he can be about Fed. (depending on his mood on any given day of course .......   )

Fed thru in straight sets. By all accounts, Gasquet played quite well. But that's the Frenchman for you - a beautiful player but little to show for all that grace and artistry.
   Radwanska's just been knocked out, so Kerber won't have to play her, and could go all the way.
   Wonder whether delpo is now regretting playing the week before the Slam. Why on earth didn't he play the week before that, and leave himself fresher for Melbourne? I think Fed would have preferred to play Berdych than delpo. With Zverev gone we could be heading for a Rog-Novak meeting, although Thiem might have something to say about that.

Sorry lags .. I didn't make myself clear but whenever I hear Cash and Nadal's name in the same sentence I usually can pre-empty what Cash will say... he has never forgiven Rafa for beating him when Rafa was 14yrs old.. and takes every opportunity to rubbish him.. I wouldn't mind if he knew what he was talking about. Willander on the other hand has a habit of doing U Turns .. says one thing one minute and something else the next..but give him credit he knows more than Cash .. not that says much

Even though Nadal has an easier draw, he does seem to be shaping up nicely.

Federer may play one or two five-setters, if he has to get to the Final.

laverfan wrote:Even though Nadal has an easier draw, he does seem to be shaping up nicely.

Federer may play one or two five-setters, if he has to get to the Final.

Federer famously came through three draining five-setters at last year’s AO, including the Final itself (and all three were in succession IIRC .... ?).

But I just don’t think even Federer can repeat the trick. And on the basis of play over the course of week one, my new ‘first’ favourite for this 2018 title is none other than the World No.1, who seemingly has been totally untroubled so far. He looks very, very, determined to start his season in style. Even the return to that ‘aggressive-looking’ sleeveless shirt is all about making a strong statement, IMO.

Lags72. Agree that Rafa has looked good so far. But he's hardly been tested. And while you don't want to arrive at the latter rounds in a tired state, you also could find it useful to get battle-hardened by having a difficult match early on.

sirfredperry wrote:Lags72. Agree that Rafa has looked good so far. But he's hardly been tested. And while you don't want to arrive at the latter rounds in a tired state, you also could find it useful to get battle-hardened by having a difficult match early on.

Yes I agree with that. Good to be pushed and see what kind of levels you can raise your game to. Puts you in a better frame of mind for the bigger challenges that lie ahead.