The Prem Run in - Who will go down?

Well....a few games left...we're 5 points adrift, who has the better run in? We look like we could not even buy a win at the moment, Or will there be ringfencing?  

Falcons
Exeter(A), Worcester (H), Wasps(A), Sale(H...at St James park), Sarries (A), Leics (H), Saints (H), Glaws (A),Bristol(H)

Worcester
Leics (H), Falcons (A), Exeter (H), Bristol (A), Wasps (A), Sale (H), Glaws (H), Saints (A), Sarrries (H)

Bristol
Quins (A), Glaws (H), Saints (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A), Sarries (H), Leics (A), Sale (H), Falcons (A)

Leicester
Worcester (A), Wasps (H), Sale (A), Saints (H), Exeter (H), Falcons (A), Bristol (H), Quins (A), Bath (H),

You should probably include Tigers in this . We look a right state at the minute. Players just make terrible decisions in games despite generally good tactical set up.

To be fair, Sam, looking at the fixtures above, Tigers have all three of the teams listed. Those results could make a big difference!

Falcons away at Exeter, Sarries, Wasps and Glaws... can't fancy much from those!

Bristol and Worcester have already recorded TBP wins over us this season. Can't remember the result Vs Falcons.

We have Wuss this weekend away with half a squad of youngsters who will play pretty well but make mistakes and half a squad of mainly journeymen out of form. The two internationals still remaining in the backline last weekend cost us 23 points between them. Optimism isn't high.

Ricardo74 wrote:To be fair, Sam, looking at the fixtures above, Tigers have all three of the teams listed. Those results could make a big difference!

Falcons away at Exeter, Sarries, Wasps and Glaws... can't fancy much from those!

We also have a Worcester, Bristol, Leicester, Sale and Saints at home. The Sale game is at St James with hopefully a big crowd behind us.

GeordieFalcon wrote:

Ricardo74 wrote:To be fair, Sam, looking at the fixtures above, Tigers have all three of the teams listed. Those results could make a big difference!

Falcons away at Exeter, Sarries, Wasps and Glaws... can't fancy much from those!

We also have a Worcester, Bristol, Leicester, Sale and Saints at home. The Sale game is at St James with hopefully a big crowd behind us.

I was at a full Ricoh in December to watch us capitulate meekly to Bath. Big crowd is also more people to disappoint!

Those games you list are all winnable though. It could go down to the wire.

If Falcons come together and remember what made them tick last season they will pull away from the relegation zone with those fixtures.

Its injuries Sam.

Word is getting out from the club that's its genuinely insane how bad its been...and those we' are getting on the field are simply not fit, due to lack of gametime or not able to fully train in training due to niggles etc.

We have a forum night at KP early march so it will be interesting to see why we've had so many problems.

Ive added Tigers on for sh1ts and giggles.

See this is why ringfencing could be a good option.

Last season Falcons were one of the best teams in the league and a great feel good story for the neutral to get behind.

Now due to other teams spending more and Falcons low budget, plus injuries and perhaps being taken more seriously? They're at the bottom of the league, but who's to say next season if they were still here they wouldn't be top 4 again?

Teams need some consistency and time to work things through, relegation just Frak that imo.

Its a double edged sword though Yappy.
Exeter wouldn't be there without relegation and promotion...

And Bristol (though I hate their money approach) will probably be up there sooner rather than later.

I personally would prefer ringfencing...and not just due to the falcons position.

I think the Tigers will start to get their act together and while not challenging for the playoffs, should clear themselves of the relegation zone.

I therefore see three teams at risk

Newcastle
Worcester
Bristol

Probably in that order purely based on current league position.

However, the bottom of the table is tighter than Geordie Falcon's wallet so it's going to be close and there's one team who I think have the biggest issue

Worcester Warriors

Why? Look at their run in

Worcester
Leics (H), Falcons (A), Exeter (H), Bristol (A), Wasps (A), Sale (H), Glaws (H), Saints (A), Sarrries (H)

Three massive games right there. To survive relegation, not only do you need to pick up points, but you need to stop your nearest rivals getting points also. Playing both Falcons and the Bears away is going to be a struggle for the Warriors. Not only could they not gain points, but their rivals could well be earning them.

Then, if it comes down to the last game of the season, you've got Sarries coming to visit and as the top of the table is tighter than my wallet, then it's likely Sarries could be coming to town needing points to finish top of the table. Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, Falcons and Bristol have Worcester at home so this is the best chance of points. Falcons then have an even better chance with a home game at the end of the season against Bristol. It's entirely possible that this game could define who finishes last. Home advantage is a massive thing.

That’s the logical way of looking at things, but in sport, anything is possible.

Yes that's a good post Tiger.

I honestly believe much will be about our injuries. If we can get them back on the pitch ...and crucially get them match fit, then I think we will be in a better position, despite being 5 points adrift.

But yes, there are some big games there.

Not often I come up with good posts!

The critical thing for Newcastle is indeed getting the injured players back, but there's a rather important balance between getting them back and rushing them back too soon.

Deano is going to have to decide if he wants to let players fully recover, and potentially not get any points out of the next 2 or 3 games and hope the returning fully fit players can then turn tings around in the last half dozen games. if he risks them and they never fully recover and he plays with partly injured players at the tail end of the season, it could spell disaster

Slightly confused as to why, after round 14 we will have played 8 away games and 6 at home (Falcons are the same)

Ring fencing gets my vote (unsurprisingly from Wuss point of view).

Tough on the championship teams that miss out but my preference would be a ring fenced league of 14, at least for a few years.

When you consider all the money Bristol spent and the players they have, the gap between the Championship and Premership is much bigger than it was when Exeter came up.  It was 2010 when they came up, were the bottom teams as strong as they are now. Add in the difference in money and salaries between then and now, could a team afford to have the players for a year in the Championship to then stay up the following year, as you need a year to build the team if you are going to stay up.

With the academies being set up now to find the best players in the region, and afilated them with a premiership club, can a championship club amass enough young players to surprise people.

14 teams is the way to go with a two leg playoff between the top two and bottom two (1v14 and 2v13). Two legs reduces one off upsets.

In regards who is going down.

Leicester are 12 points ahead. Falcon would need to win all 3 games and match Tigers other results so not going to happen but it would be funny.

Bristol are 8 pts ahead so could lose to Falcons and still be ahead. I think they have more players who can change games so will get a few results to stay clear.

If Falcons get a TBP win against Wuss they are level which also gets into the players heads. With the players coming back it will be like mid season signings. I think by the last game Bristol will be safe and Falcon will get a TBP win. That should be enough to see them stay up.

If Wuss beat Falcons I think Falcons heads would drop and they will go down.

So in short whoever loses next week goes down.

stub wrote:Ring fencing gets my vote (unsurprisingly from Wuss point of view).

Tough on the championship teams that miss out but my preference would be a ring fenced league of 14, at least for a few years.

I would make it 16 teams in two conferences of 8, playing your own conference home and away, and the other conference sides once. Gives 22 games as now. Scrap the Premiership Cup, and have three weeks of playoffs. Top 4 sides in each Conference play in one set (1v4,2v3 etc with winners meeting following week, and losers meeting each other). Same happens for bottom 4, meaning ultimately teams can be ranked 1-16. Income from playoffs pooled and shared.

Each Conference would have their own A league, again with playoffs.

Wuss could be more than 5 points ahead of Falcons by the time they meet if Falcons lose today and Worcester win tomorrow.

I still think Wuss are favourites for the drop though unfortunately.

LondonTiger - that might be an easier sell to the Championship clubs too as more get to be involved....

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well....a few games left...we're 5 points adrift, who has the better run in? We look like we could not even buy a win at the moment, Or will there be ringfencing?  

Falcons
Exeter(A), Worcester (H), Wasps(A), Sale(H...at St James park), Sarries (A), Leics (H), Saints (H), Glaws (A),Bristol(H)

Worcester
Leics (H), Falcons (A), Exeter (H), Bristol (A), Wasps (A), Sale (H), Glaws (H), Saints (A), Sarrries (H)

Bristol
Quins (A), Glaws (H), Saints (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A), Sarries (H), Leics (A), Sale (H), Falcons (A)

Leicester
Worcester (A), Wasps (H), Sale (A), Saints (H), Exeter (H), Falcons (A), Bristol (H), Quins (A), Bath (H),

Bristol 35 points should get 10 more
Leicester on 34 points could get 13 more
Worcester on 28 points may only win once more
Newcastle on 25 points need to get one win more than Wuss manage.

Bristol and Leicester probably safe - but no guarantees, so looks like a shootout between Wuss and Falcons.

Wuss are a hard team to call. Very physical and generally reliable at the set piece with a moderately effective backline. Discipline can kill them off and if their forwards don't get a platform they tend to concede a TPB. Having said that I'd say they've got a great chance at winning their next three games but less so the three after that (Saints at the Gardens could be closer).

Falcons simply have to beat Bristol and Sale the. Pick up points wherever possible. Tigers is a distinct possibility because we are still shocking and are really relying on our England contingent to return and keep the ship afloat.

The next game of Bears vs Warriors will be key.

If Wuss win that then Falcons could be in deep deep doo doo.

If the Bears win (and are at home so really should) and if the Falcons (also at home) beat Sale, then Falcons will finally go above Wuss in the league. Wuss then have a much more difficult run in with Falcons possibly able to target leicester but then also the bears at home again.

Really the relegation battle could be decided in the next round.

Genge, Cole, Youngs, Ford and May returning along with Toomua and Veainu due back from injury should provide Tigers with enough power to get three wins from those remaining fixtures. Especially with 4 home games.

It's going to be both a fascinating and painful end to the season to follow.

king_carlos wrote:Genge, Cole, Youngs, Ford and May returning along with Toomua and Veainu due back from injury should provide Tigers with enough power to get three wins from those remaining fixtures. Especially with 4 home games.

It's going to be both a fascinating and painful end to the season to follow.

And Manu

I thought TV was out for the season?

Thanks, LT. Thought I'd listed him there!

TV was due back March at the earliest, but more likely April. I haven't seen anything to suggest he's had a setback.

From what I understand:

Thompstone, Smith and technically Taity are the confirmed out for the season. There are suggestions that Bateman has now joined them.

Denton and Stevens have got long term concussion problems and have both reportedly had setbacks when returning to training. Unsure if we will see them return soon sadly.

Gaston Cortes and Gareth Owen I've heard little about their absences. Cortes could simply be down to Heyes kicking on this season.

Shazam I believe is due back relatively soon but then he has been down the pecking order with Geordie in charge.

Who's Shazam, King?

bluestonevedder wrote:Who's Shazam, King?

Sam Harrison

Not sure this is the place to put this but.........
If ringfencing Is brought in, can all the people at the PRL (and one or two posters on here) who used the lack of relegation from the pro 14 as a reason why the Euro cup (and claim it was an inferior league because of it) should change, please public state they were wrong and they are very sorry?

Thanks

king_carlos wrote:

bluestonevedder wrote:Who's Shazam, King?

Sam Harrison

Ive heard various things about ringfencing....but we'll wait and see.

We simply have to just keep winning. We have finally got a few games together where we have played the same team and lo behold we've won a few.

We have to win Next Weekend at the Big one in St James park. Should be 30,000 there again .

Is this now a two horse race.  Newcastle beating Worcester was a big one.  If Worcester loose to Bristol they could be in serious trouble.

I assume that Bristol are now out of it or have the last few rounds shown that Wasps and Saints are in danger of getting dragged into it. Saints must play all of the bottom three while they played Bristol the previous round. It's a big if, but if they lost all of those the gap starts to look alot smaller for them.

Wasps next 4 games are Glaws and Exeter away and Wuss and Sarries at home. Again a big if, but if they lost to Wuss I can't see them getting much out of the other three on current form.

Newcastle are getting their players back at the right time which means they are stronger than they were.

carpet baboon wrote:Not sure this is the place to put this but.........
If ringfencing Is brought in, can all the people at the PRL (and one or two posters on here) who used the lack of relegation from the pro 14 as a reason why the Euro cup (and claim it was an inferior league because of it) should change, please public state they were wrong and they are very sorry?

Thanks

Officially changing the Euro qualification was more to do with the guaranteed places no matter how crap you are (though we all know it was about control). I would argue that the the changes to Euro qualification have helped make the Pro12 teams more competitive. However having relegation does make things tougher for clubs. See no need for anyone to apologise if PRL/RFU implement ringfencing as the original argument would still stand. 

It would however mean we were more likely to have deadwood like the Dragons

Wasps and Saints are 12 points clear. That is a lot to make up in just 6 games, especially as the other teams would also need to make up ground.

LondonTiger wrote:

carpet baboon wrote:Not sure this is the place to put this but.........
If ringfencing Is brought in, can all the people at the PRL (and one or two posters on here) who used the lack of relegation from the pro 14 as a reason why the Euro cup (and claim it was an inferior league because of it) should change, please public state they were wrong and they are very sorry?

Thanks

Officially changing the Euro qualification was more to do with the guaranteed places no matter how crap you are (though we all know it was about control). I would argue that the the changes to Euro qualification have helped make the Pro12 teams more competitive. However having relegation does make things tougher for clubs. See no need for anyone to apologise if PRL/RFU implement ringfencing as the original argument would still stand. 

It would however mean we were more likely to have deadwood like the Dragons

I think the best thing to come out of the euro fight was the Pro12 having to give places to the top teams. It has made the league more interesting. It has made the Pro12 teams a more daunting prospect to face which has improved the image of the league. It has also made the Challange Cup a place were Pro12 teams now go in believing they can win it.

Brendan wrote:Newcastle are getting their players back at the right time which means they are stronger than they were.

This is the thing...and by the looks of it, players who have been badly out of form all season like Chris Harris and Gary Graham are suddenly exploding in to life.

LondonTiger wrote:Wasps and Saints are 12 points clear. That is a lot to make up in just 6 games, especially as the other teams would also need to make up ground.

I was thinking it but wanted to see what others thought. I don't think Wocester can make up the 12 points to bring them into it. If Newcastle can get their best players on the field I think they could.

Its between us and Worcester simple as that.

We've had a few results recently that have clawed us back into it. But Worcester look a decent team when they get their act together. Its all down to the wire.

As a neutral I really hope Newcastle can manage the come back and stay up, I don't dislike Wuss at all, but Falcons are a great club who showed last season what potential they have.

I can't help but think that them going down now would undo so much good work for nothing in return, just another yoyo club coming up and then going down again. Totally pointless imo except for the tv revenue Sky get for the play offs and the drama.

Can you imagine if they didn't have the constant fear of relegation, and so could hold on to more of their best players. It'd be better for the whole league in the end.

I think ringfencing will come in sooner or later, the problem is that it needs to be done in a way that allows whichever Premiership side is currently in the Championship to be included - you can't shut the door on Wuss or Newcastle. LI or whoever.
Therefore the logical conclusion is a root and branch reform into two divisions, made up of all the Premiership side plus any of the Championship sides that are prepared to embrace a professional approach and set that in stone for a few years to get a proper league established where relegation isn't the end of the world and sides can plan in recruitment, stadium development and financially into the longer term.
The caveat being that all the teams in these divisions are fully professional.

I would go to conferences rather than two divisions. Ideally 16 teams as that would still give 22 matches. It would allow for 3 non PRL championship sides to gain entry. How long it would be locked for would need to be well thought out, and what happens after that period too.

Two divisions would need at least 20 teams, and I do not believe there are sufficient sides for that.

Well ive heard rumours that its coming in this season. So i'll be interested to see if my source is correct or not.

Irish to be promoted and no relegation or Wuss or Falcons.

Each team to be given £15m.

Relegation / Promotion every 4/5 years possibly.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Well ive heard rumours that its coming in this season. So i'll be interested to see if my source is correct or not.

Irish to be promoted and no relegation or Wuss or Falcons.

Each team to be given £15m.

Relegation / Promotion every 4/5 years possibly.

Won't that give an uneven number of teams though ? It'll need to two from the Championship to make it viable - I know the Ealing owner is pretty flush so maybe he could buy them in.

Would I be right in thinking that regardless of promotion they'd have to let Irish in as they own the "P" share, so they couldn't keep them out.

Yes Irish must be in any ring fenced league...all 12 of the "shareholders" must be.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Yes Irish must be in any ring fenced league...all 12 of the "shareholders" must be.

 13 Shareholders.

I hate the idea of an odd number of teams.

Sorry 13 Lt

Don't take my word for it gents. Its just what ive heard from a respectable source in and around the club.

And lots of what that person said makes complete sense with regards to the falcons this season.

Of course, it could all be complete rubbish.

They might look to bring Yorkshire (Leeds) up aswell as they are a big region in producing players...just struggle keeping them.

Two conferences would be the best as LT outlines. Would allow for marginally less games as well, which is a good thing.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Sorry 13 Lt

Don't take my word for it gents. Its just what ive heard from a respectable source in and around the club.

And lots of what that person said makes complete sense with regards to the falcons this season.

Of course, it could all be complete rubbish.

They might look to bring Yorkshire (Leeds) up aswell as they are a big player in producing players...just struggle keeping them.

That could be an idea, it spreads the game northwards and I think Leeds were one of the original P shareholders, IRRC Exeter have their share but it was sold with the condition that if Leeds went back up they could buy it back. Headingley has just had a very expensive rebuild for the RL side but I'm sure Leeds Rugby Ltd wouldn't mind a slice of PRL money as well.