TOP 3 TEAMS AFTER THIS WEEK END?

by majesticimperialman Mon 11 Mar 2019, 10:41 am

Some one with a bit more brain than me could help me out here?

This week end. Wales beat Ireland, England beat Scotland.
( 1 ) WALES Tournament winner +Grand Slam winners.

(2 ) ENGLAND runners up.

( 3) IRELAND

How ever Ireland beat Wales, England beat Scotland

( 1 ) England tournament winners.

( 2 ) Wales runners up.

( 3 ) Ireland

Or Is it

(1 ) England

( 2 ) Ireland.

( 3 ) Wales.

How would the table stand if Wales lose to Ireland?
Discuss.

by Guest Mon 11 Mar 2019, 10:49 am

Depends on the scores, Maj. Winners, draws, any try bonus points, losing bonus points, etc. Without knowing that it is difficult to say exactly who will finish where!

by SecretFly Mon 11 Mar 2019, 11:06 am

If Ireland beat Wales don't Ireland come 2nd.... presuming England at home will be too strong for Scotland? Wales won more games so far than Ireland but we have more game points, more tries for, two try bonus points..... if we win we'll have hopefully scored more points than them ... and will probably need it to be from tries rather than a long series of three pointers. We're not the best a metronomic kicking for points and Wales are one of the best.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 11 Mar 2019, 11:13 am

Current:

Wales 16
England 15
Ireland 14

Should Ireland beat Wales:

England can get a maximum of 20 points, minimum 15
Ireland can get a maximum of 19 points, minimum 18
Wales can get a maximum of 18 points, minimum 16

Should Ireland beat Wales, Wales will probably finish 3rd unless England lose to Scotland and then it would depend on any bonus points.

Put simply:
If Wales win on Saturday they are Grand Slam winners and champions and will have a place in history.
England need to beat Scotland and hope Ireland have beaten Wales.
Ireland need to beat Wales, and hope Scotland beat England.

Edit: I think the only way for Wales to lose and come second is to deny Ireland a TBP and get two BPs themselves. That should put them ahead on Points Difference which I thing is the first separator for teams level on points.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 11 Mar 2019, 11:15 am

I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

by **rodders** Mon 11 Mar 2019, 1:35 pm

Honestly I can't see Scotland beating England at Twickenham so Ireland have very little chance of the title.

Wales have it in their own hands but even with home advantage that is not a banker. They'll start as favourites but it could go either way.

Head for me says most likely outcome is -

England 20 pts
Ireland 18 pts
Wales 17 pts

The big surprise for me this year is how big the gap has been between the top 3 and France and Scotland, who've both been very disappointing.

by SecretFly Mon 11 Mar 2019, 2:10 pm

France try to entertain their home crowd....otherwise, I think they want shot of yet another coach they don't believe in. Really think they need at this stage (and maybe even tacitly want) an external coach, perhaps SH.
I was listening to a not new interview with POC last night (Off the Ball) and he pretty bluntly went against BODs supposition or question as to how open French players are to change coming in from outside coaches in Top14. POC said that in his experience, the players are craving that outside view...they want it and instead of him trying to learn French, he finds it's the French players trying to speak English to get a better grasp of these outside opinions. So it seems French admin and coaches are stale; whilst players are open to dipping in to that other world view of how the game should be played.

by robbo277 Mon 11 Mar 2019, 2:42 pm

LondonTiger wrote:I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

Rugbyvision have gone with Wales 56% chance of being Champions, 55.7% chance of being Grand Slam winners (differential coming from the draw combined with England failing to win). England have 39.2% and Ireland have 4.8%.

Rugby 4cast have Wales 53% to win the Championship and Grand Slam (negligible chance of a non-Grand Slam Championship), England at 32% and Ireland at 15%. I'm not sure if they've fully considered the points difference though.

I think Rugbyvision is the one I most closely align with. I'd have Wales a smidge ahead of 50/50 with their form and being at home. England have the bulk of the remainder of the chance, Ireland have a very outside shot.

Rugby 4cast though, who provide a full positional analysis, have Wales on 53% to win the Grand Slam but only 5% to finish second. So it's looking most likely to be first or third for Wales.

France and Scotland will share 4th and 5th, and Rugby 4cast also gives France an 85% chance of 4th, with Scotland having the other 15%.

by No9 Mon 11 Mar 2019, 5:03 pm

If Ireland beat Wales with a Winning BP and England beat Scotland with NO BP, then England and Ireland would be on the same PTS. But England would have a 64 point difference (as it stands, without taking the next scores in consideration). So simple maths says Ireland would have to beat Wales by 66 points (and BP) and England only beat Scotland by 1 point (and NO BP).

Think the chance of Ireland retaining the title is extremely slim.

Mind you, its all academic as Wales will take the Grand Slam ( Erm

)

by robbo277 Mon 11 Mar 2019, 5:08 pm

No9 wrote:If Ireland beat Wales with a Winning BP and England beat Scotland with NO BP, then England and Ireland would be on the same PTS. But England would have a 64 point difference (as it stands, without taking the next scores in consideration). So simple maths says Ireland would have to beat Wales by 66 points (and BP) and England only beat Scotland by 1 point (and NO BP).

Think the chance of Ireland retaining the title is extremely slim.

Mind you, its all academic as Wales will take the Grand Slam ( )

Ireland's chance is by beating Wales and then England failing to win. The points difference equation is academic at this point.

by rugby4cast Mon 11 Mar 2019, 6:10 pm

robbo277 wrote:I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

Rugbyvision have gone with Wales 56% chance of being Champions, 55.7% chance of being Grand Slam winners (differential coming from the draw combined with England failing to win). England have 39.2% and Ireland have 4.8%.

Rugby 4cast have Wales 53% to win the Championship and Grand Slam (negligible chance of a non-Grand Slam Championship), England at 32% and Ireland at 15%. I'm not sure if they've fully considered the points difference though.

I think Rugbyvision is the one I most closely align with. I'd have Wales a smidge ahead of 50/50 with their form and being at home. England have the bulk of the remainder of the chance, Ireland have a very outside shot.

Rugby 4cast though, who provide a full positional analysis, have Wales on 53% to win the Grand Slam but only 5% to finish second. So it's looking most likely to be first or third for Wales.

France and Scotland will share 4th and 5th, and Rugby 4cast also gives France an 85% chance of 4th, with Scotland having the other 15%.

Absolutely right. We made a mistake in our calcs that meant the points difference wasn't flowing through. Correct version attached.

Thoughts?

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by robbo277 Mon 11 Mar 2019, 7:55 pm

Those look about right across the board.

by rugby4cast Mon 11 Mar 2019, 8:01 pm

glad to hear it. Let me know if you've any other thoughts, ideas or suggestions. Always looking to improve!

Also it might be of interest to note that should Wales beat Ireland they'll go to number 2 in the world.

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by Pie Mon 11 Mar 2019, 8:11 pm

LondonTiger wrote:I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

I dont think you learned much about coming to Cardiff to play Wales 2 weeks ago.

by **LondonTiger** Mon 11 Mar 2019, 9:49 pm

Pie wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

I dont think you learned much about coming to Cardiff to play Wales 2 weeks ago.

I learned nothing I did not already know about what can happen when England visit Cardiff, none of which has any relation to matches that pitch Wales against Ireland or England against Scotland.

by maestegmafia Tue 12 Mar 2019, 1:34 am

Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

by Pie Tue 12 Mar 2019, 4:32 am

Waled could win this weekend by 20 and then go on to win RWC, we all know if that happened most NZ and English fans would bang on about the price of fish El Nino and/or stalactite patterns in Otago to explain why this was a freak result and we dont deserve ti blah blah blah. Mot Irish would be honorable abut it because they know there's been a few issues but the English, unlikely. Wales probably have the best defense in World rugby right now and other teams just haven't figured out that you can score 8 tries v Italy but if you cant defend for toffee and cant break down a defense because you only play 1 way then you're stuffed.

by Pie Tue 12 Mar 2019, 4:33 am

LondonTiger wrote:
Pie wrote:
LondonTiger wrote:I make Cardiff a 50/50 game, Twickenham 90/10

Thus I give Wales a 50% chance of being Champions, England 45% and Ireland 5%

I dont think you learned much about coming to Cardiff to play Wales 2 weeks ago.
I learned nothing I did not already know about what can happen when England visit Cardiff, none of which has any relation to matches that pitch Wales against Ireland or England against Scotland.

Ok again with feeling, you've learned nothing. Wales in Cardiff for a GS, not a 50/50 game. Just like 2005 Ireland will be hard pressed to resist the home crowd and Wales will step it up. I'd give them 1 in 3 at best.

by No 7&1/2 Tue 12 Mar 2019, 6:30 am

by **LondonTiger** Tue 12 Mar 2019, 6:36 am

Dear Pie, most fans of ALL nationalities would congratulate Wales on winning a Grand Slam.

Some may not, just as there were a lot of people stating that England's last Slam was undeserved.

It is the life of the internet, especially when people seem offence that just was not intended.

by majesticimperialman Tue 12 Mar 2019, 6:48 am

maestegmafia wrote:Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

maes, watching scrum 5 last night Wales have won all Grand Slam game's in Cardiff.

So it could be a certainty that Wales will win. If they do then they will have been well worth the title. But they still have toooooooooo win and IRELAND will not roll over and make it easy for them. I do expect it to be a close game. maybe even a draw could be on the cards.

by BigTrevsbigmac Tue 12 Mar 2019, 7:40 am

Pie wrote:Waled could win this weekend by 20 and then go on to win RWC, we all know if that happened most NZ and English fans would bang on about the price of fish El Nino and/or stalactite patterns in Otago to explain why this was a freak result and we dont deserve ti blah blah blah. Mot Irish would be honorable abut it because they know there's been a few issues but the English, unlikely. Wales probably have the best defense in World rugby right now and other teams just haven't figured out that you can score 8 tries v Italy but if you cant defend for toffee and cant break down a defense because you only play 1 way then you're stuffed.

Wales have a great defence Pie but have conceded 6 tries so far this tournament the same as England. If Wales beat Ireland this Saturday they will obviously be deserved winners.
There is, however, a greater chance of England beating Scotland than Wales beating Ireland.
That is the difference, Wales,however are slight favourites to beat Ireland at home, which I believe they are.

by BigTrevsbigmac Wed 13 Mar 2019, 8:30 am

This has largely been a 2 tier Six Nations with only 2 quality games so far.
If Wales pull off the GS good luck they will have deserved it. However, I hope for the sake of the competition Wales v Ireland will be the best game so far.
As was said in the Brian Moore podcast no team has managed expectation very well ( in the ‘top tier’). Ireland against England & England against Wales, with both favourites losing.

It’s good that all 3 can still possibly win the competition going into the final weekend

by robbo277 Wed 13 Mar 2019, 10:07 am

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:This has largely been a 2 tier Six Nations with only 2 quality games so far.
If Wales pull off the GS good luck they will have deserved it. However, I hope for the sake of the competition Wales v Ireland will be the best game so far.
As was said in the Brian Moore podcast no team has managed expectation very well ( in the ‘top tier’). Ireland against England & England against Wales, with both favourites losing.

It’s good that all 3 can still possibly win the competition going into the final weekend

If England beat Scotland, all 3 of England, Wales and Ireland will have beaten the blue teams - home or away - to emphasis the two-tier aspect.

If in addition Ireland beat Wales (away) and Italy beat France (home), we'll also have the pleasing scenario of being able to split the tiers into mini-leagues with each league being a paper-scissor-stone scenario (i.e. Ireland beat Wales beat England beat Ireland and Italy beat France beat Scotland beat Italy).

It will also be doubly pleasing as an England fan because these results would probably lead to a third Championship in 4 years. Whistle

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar 2019, 10:22 am

If England win that championship, I hope Jones is man enough to lavish lashings of praise on the team that helped him do it - the team that he beat but that beat the team he couldn't beat. Wink

I'll be just happy we're numero 2 in the world still if England are celebrating on Saturday.

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar 2019, 10:25 am

England have to beat Scotland first Fly.

As Gats eluded to England don't tend to play well in the crunch games, so if as expected Ireland get 5 points against Wales they may choke under pressure.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar 2019, 10:29 am

. You're the worst wummer in the place rodders.... sly Wink

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar 2019, 10:56 am

Sorry don't follow you there fly.

by Pie Wed 13 Mar 2019, 9:01 pm

So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

by No9 Wed 13 Mar 2019, 11:07 pm

maestegmafia wrote:Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

Surely that can’t be right as Wales have won 11 Slams (1908, 1909, 1911, 1950, 1952, 1971, 1976, 1978, 2005, 2008, 2012) and doesn’t count the games they played for a Slam but didn’t win.

by maestegmafia Thu 14 Mar 2019, 2:17 am

No9 wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

Surely that can’t be right as Wales have won 11 Slams (1908, 1909, 1911, 1950, 1952, 1971, 1976, 1978, 2005, 2008, 2012) and doesn’t count the games they played for a Slam but didn’t win.

Sorry no.9 you are right so it was in the 11 matches where wales went in grand slam riding on the final match.

Won every single one. Never lost a final match decider bar 1994. Never lost a decider at home on ten occasions.

by **LondonTiger** Thu 14 Mar 2019, 7:11 am

Pie wrote:So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

by Pie Thu 14 Mar 2019, 9:48 am

LondonTiger wrote:
Pie wrote:So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

by **rodders** Thu 14 Mar 2019, 9:51 am

maestegmafia wrote:
No9 wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

Surely that can’t be right as Wales have won 11 Slams (1908, 1909, 1911, 1950, 1952, 1971, 1976, 1978, 2005, 2008, 2012) and doesn’t count the games they played for a Slam but didn’t win.

Sorry no.9 you are right so it was in the 11 matches where wales went in grand slam riding on the final match.

Won every single one. Never lost a final match decider bar 1994. Never lost a decider at home on ten occasions.

Must be really tough on the Welsh boys going in with that hanging over them, no wonder Gats is heaping praise on the Irish to take the pressure off... Wink

by robbo277 Thu 14 Mar 2019, 11:09 am

Pie wrote:So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

Wales are playing for a Grand Slam in 2 days and you're more focussed on Presumptuous England and Arrogant Eddie. Do what makes you happy, I guess.

by No9 Thu 14 Mar 2019, 3:34 pm

rodders wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
No9 wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:Looking into the history books it appears that Wales have played in ten matches throughout the history of the home, five or six nations Championship where they have to win the last game to win the championship.

How many times out of ten do you think they have succeeded ?

Surely that can’t be right as Wales have won 11 Slams (1908, 1909, 1911, 1950, 1952, 1971, 1976, 1978, 2005, 2008, 2012) and doesn’t count the games they played for a Slam but didn’t win.

Sorry no.9 you are right so it was in the 11 matches where wales went in grand slam riding on the final match.

Won every single one. Never lost a final match decider bar 1994. Never lost a decider at home on ten occasions.

Must be really tough on the Welsh boys going in with that hanging over them, no wonder Gats is heaping praise on the Irish to take the pressure off...

Sorry Maes, that's wrong.. We lost the 1988 Grand Slam decider against France (9-10) at home.. There may be more in earlier years, cant remember and would have to check back through records.

Peter Jackson spouted this on Scrum V on Sunday, and was completely wrong, and since have spouted up on numerous web forums. So hopefully, the team havent listened to this "false news" and hence it doesn't add any further pressure on them.

What is true though, is win this and Gats will have the same number of Grand Slams as Ireland and Scotland... Whistle

by BigTrevsbigmac Fri 15 Mar 2019, 7:58 am

Shane Horgan,

‘I just don't see Scotland winning at Twickenham, I think it's a very good England side and I think they have been the best side in the tournament. Wales will deserve the title because of their dogged performances, but England have had the better performances and if they play to their potential, they will comfortably beat Scotland.’

by **LondonTiger** Fri 15 Mar 2019, 8:31 am

Thankfully though this is not ice skating so no marks for style.

Sometimes you can win when not playing better than your opponents, but so far Wales have been better than each of their opponents and won. Continue that tomorrow and they will have been the best team in the tournament.

Should England beat Scotland in the manner pundits from across the rugby world expect, they will however take a lot of confidence from this season.

by SecretFly Fri 15 Mar 2019, 9:13 am

Horgan, the traitorous cur...he obviously didn't watch our game against Italy! Sublime!

by Scottrf Sat 16 Mar 2019, 1:19 pm

How are Italy behind? Bottling it.

How many times are commentators going to blame Parisse’s teammates for him spilling it or throwing ridiculous passes?

by whocares Sat 16 Mar 2019, 2:30 pm

Daylight robbery in Rome. How Italy didn’t win this game is beyond me. A few good moments from our youngsters but France managed to be as abject as last week.

by Heaf Sat 16 Mar 2019, 2:31 pm

Italy will certainly be kicking themselves after that ...

by whocares Sat 16 Mar 2019, 2:38 pm

65% possession and 70% territory for Italy while France conceded 14 penalties (most inside their 22).

by Duty281 Sat 16 Mar 2019, 2:45 pm

Probably the worst Six Nations I can remember the French having.

by majesticimperialman Sat 16 Mar 2019, 7:29 pm

How does the TOP 3 Look now. With Itrland getting well stuffed by Wales, and England and Scotland getting a draw?

Is it Wales, over all winners.

England second on points difference

Then is it Ireland or Scotland for 3rd place?

by Pie Sat 16 Mar 2019, 8:23 pm

robbo277 wrote:
Pie wrote:So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

Wales are playing for a Grand Slam in 2 days and you're more focussed on Presumptuous England and Arrogant Eddie. Do what makes you happy, I guess.

Our result was always going to happen, I had plenty of time to focus on England Laugh

by majesticimperialman Sat 16 Mar 2019, 9:38 pm

Pie wrote:
robbo277 wrote:
Pie wrote:So many assumptions tbh. England assumed they would prevail in Cardiff but lost badly. Same again this week, will they ever really learn and just for once assume a little humility. Or is the Arrogant Eddie phase they are in like some pubescent backlash post Bomber?

Wales are playing for a Grand Slam in 2 days and you're more focussed on Presumptuous England and Arrogant Eddie. Do what makes you happy, I guess.

Our result was always going to happen, I had plenty of time to focus on England

Typical Pie some ask a genuine question and you ,make sarcastic remarks.

If you do m=not know the answer then please keep quite keep quite,

by Pie Sun 17 Mar 2019, 5:18 am

Are you referring to the genuine question I asked? Laugh

Did you say the last bit twice for effect?

by mikey_dragon Sun 17 Mar 2019, 6:58 pm

In order the Top 3 Elite in World Rugby are:

1. New Zealand
2. Wales
3. Ireland

by SecretFly Sun 17 Mar 2019, 8:07 pm

See. It ain't no catastrophe for Ireland. Playing Shiite and still 3rd. That's how to have a crap Six Nations and still mix it with the best in da world!

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