QF2 - Match Thread - New Zealand v Ireland - 19/10/19 - K/O 11:15 BST

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

NZ



Team: B Barrett; Reece, Goodhue, Lienert-Brown, Bridge; Mo'unga, Smith; Moody, Taylor, Laulala, Retallick, Whitelock; Savea, Cane, Reid.

Replacements: Coles, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao, S Barrett, Todd, Perenara, Williams, J Barrett.


Ireland



Team: Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Henshaw, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best, Furlong, Henderson, James Ryan, O'Mahony; Van der Flier, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Beirne, Ruddock, McGrath, Carbery, Larmour.



Venue: Tokyo
Referee: Nigel Owens
AR1: Pascal Gauzere
AR2: Angus Gardiner
TMO: Graham Hughes

[SecretFly]

I won't be upset!

[Old Man]

Taylorman will be.

[Collapse2005]

I will say though Ireland have never had and probably wont for a while have a better chance to beat the ABs at a world cup so the time is now really and there would be no better way to get to a semi final for the first time.

The ABs are a great side and still the best but they aren't unbeatable in the same way they have been. I think a good few things will have to go Ireland's way but who knows for once everything might align for us in this one.

[BamBam]

I won't be upset!

Me neither!

England v Ireland for a place in the final would be epic 

[SecretFly]

I'd be the first to bow to the ABs.  I don't have the old NH v SH gene in me and many times over the decades have found myself supporting ABs and Australia....easily.

ABs are what they are and only serious begrudgers want to always have a pop at them.

But I can't agree with these ideas that this game or that game might be the best chance against them - inference being they'll probably push on again beyond the realms of a team like Ireland.  Maybe so.  But why the need for it to be so?  

Ireland since professionalism have been largely on an upswing of systems management and player creation.  Even if we lose to NZ this weekend, I don't see the graph being anything but still upward shifting.  NZ will keep being innovative because their historic head start in quality production has given them a breathing space always to experiment when other sides are just trying to win.  But I firmly believe Ireland will keep improving their 'product' too over time.
Maybe this is our big chance to do them in a WC.... maybe the very next WC along will present us with an even bigger chance.
My thinking is simply that this is a game in a QF.  We can lose, we can win.  Same conditions applied to SA had we gotten them.  I feel no extra angst.  Don't truly believe the players will either.  You have to try to win a QF.  Habitual World Number 1 happen to be the target.

[Collapse2005]

Im just basing that on history but who knows Fly. Either way Ireland will be confident of winning this game and they will believe that this is a good chance for them.

[LondonTiger]

I will say though Ireland have never had and probably wont for a while have a better chance to beat the ABs at a world cup so the time is now really and there would be no better way to get to a semi final for the first time.

I honestly cannot remember Ireland ever playing NZ in a WC match.



Having checked looks like only in 1995.

[Pete330v2]

I will say though Ireland have never had and probably wont for a while have a better chance to beat the ABs at a world cup so the time is now really and there would be no better way to get to a semi final for the first time.

I honestly cannot remember Ireland ever playing NZ in a WC match.



Having checked looks like only in 1995.

Gary Halpins double bird salute after scoring the opening try that only served to make the ABs very angry.

[Collapse2005]

I will say though Ireland have never had and probably wont for a while have a better chance to beat the ABs at a world cup so the time is now really and there would be no better way to get to a semi final for the first time.

I honestly cannot remember Ireland ever playing NZ in a WC match.



Having checked looks like only in 1995.

That wasnt really the point though, it was more a hypothetical observation.

[LondonTiger]

Ah Gary Halpin - Olympic Hammer Thrower as well as rugby?

[SecretFly]

Yep, this will be only the second time. ABs were lucky enough to avoid us in the other years....

[SecretFly]

So who has the toughest assignment of the QFs?

Ireland or South Africa?

We have to face the ABs
South Africa have to face the mini me ABs.

[Guest]

Which ref would each team prefer to have?

For the Irish, I'd be tempted to say Wayne Barnes, as whatever the fans think of him he has been very kind to Ireland since at least 2015-ish. Also tends to come down in favour of their interpretation of the ruck.

For NZ? Hard to say. Probably a French ref. Inconsistent means the ABs can 'take the ref out of the game'. Angus Gardner doesn't deserve a knockout game, but if he did get one, NZ would probably want him. Buckles under pressure, and that means favouring the favourites.

[Guest]

Classic NZ, all offside.

Also, shocking celebration/reaction. Would that result in a card today? Probably red? You'd have to say it might.

Also don't know why teams don't try moves like that more often. Yes, it's going to hurt, but a tap-and-go charge at a stationary defence at least should mean you have momentum on your side. There's also numerous opportunities for the trick move - late offload/pass before the tackle, a chip over the line (particularly useful at Murrayfield you'd say).

[SecretFly]

Which ref would each team prefer to have?

For the Irish, I'd be tempted to say Wayne Barnes, as whatever the fans think of him he has been very kind to Ireland since at least 2015-ish. Also tends to come down in favour of their interpretation of the ruck.

For NZ? Hard to say. Probably a French ref. Inconsistent means the ABs can 'take the ref out of the game'. Angus Gardner doesn't deserve a knockout game, but if he did get one, NZ would probably want him. Buckles under pressure, and that means favouring the favourites.

Names don't matter really. A ref that is prepared to be fair...that's all you need, a fighting chance based on equal treatment. So if NZ do some shady edge-of-legal stuff and keep getting away with it, then the ref should have the guts to allow Ireland slide that close to the edge too. And vice versa of course...................... maybe

[Guest]

Not sure Fly. There aren't too many refs who live up to that. I think we've never seen more varied 'interpretations' based on the country of ref at a world cup, not in the pro era at least. It absolutely defines this match and the result, for me. If Ireland have Barnes or Luke Pearce, they have a better chance of winning.

[SecretFly]

You might think that based on recent histories....as regards Barnes anyway.  But I have funny feelings about those things.  Terrain can shift dramatically.  Barnes might see the game differently on the day.  Everybody changes and if we're admitting that refs are human, then Barnes is still a human.  And Ireland's worse day would be beginning a game thinking Barnes might be on point with their methods and habits only to find out bluntly and quickly that quick adaptations are needed bloody smartly to stay in the game!

Indeed, as I'm typing and thinking now, I've motivated myself into the view that it would probably be best to get a ref Ireland are cautious of and careful with.  If they show themselves newly obedient to a ref that usually frowns on them,,,, well, they might find a new friend.... like we found in arch enemy Barnes eventually.

[RiscaGame]

Ireland would want Nige, in my opinion.

[SecretFly]

Ireland would want Nige, in my opinion.

Two of him. One in the TMO box as well. Nothing like a NigeO'wens game.

[RiscaGame]

I don't go in for all that O'Wens stuff really.

[Collapse2005]

Ireland would want Nige, in my opinion.

No I dont think we would. In the game v the ABs which we lost in the last minute we had Nige and he allowed the ABs back into the game with some kind of questionable penalties. We would want Garces or Poite IMO.

[mikey_dragon]

Ireland would want Nige, in my opinion.

No I dont think we would. In the game v the ABs which we lost in the last minute we had Nige and he allowed the ABs back into the game with some kind of questionable penalties. We would want Garces or Poite IMO.

Yeah, you would.

[RiscaGame]

Fair enough. A fair bit of praise for "The World's Best Ref" that I see on social media, seems to come from Irish supporters.

[BamBam]

Given both NZ and Ireland hate him, Wayne Barnes would be an amusing choice

[Collapse2005]

Given both NZ and Ireland hate him, Wayne Barnes would be an amusing choice

I would take Barnes for this game. He reffed our win v NZ in November.

[Collapse2005]

Fair enough. A fair bit of praise for "The World's Best Ref" that I see on social media, seems to come from Irish supporters.

He is definitely popular and I understand why, he is one of the characters of world rugby and a good ref. He wouldnt be my first choice though.

[BamBam]

Given both NZ and Ireland hate him, Wayne Barnes would be an amusing choice

I would take Barnes for this game. He reffed our win v NZ in November.

Jesus, that's a change of tune! I distinctly remember your relationship with Wayne making mikey and Garces look like Romeo and Juliet

[Guest]

 Barnes might see the game differently on the day.  Everybody changes and if we're admitting that refs are human, then Barnes is still a human

Wow there...hang on now bonzo...

[Collapse2005]

Given both NZ and Ireland hate him, Wayne Barnes would be an amusing choice

I would take Barnes for this game. He reffed our win v NZ in November.

Jesus, that's a change of tune! I distinctly remember your relationship with Wayne making mikey and Garces look like Romeo and Juliet

Barnes has improved and NZ and Ireland are neutrals to him. I was never convinced that Wales was given he went to school in Wales and he was assigned to nearly every Ireland v Wales fixture in the last 10 years.

[Collapse2005]

When are the refs announced?

[Collapse2005]

Well Bundee Aki gets a three week ban which sees him out of the rest of the RWC with no chance of replacing him. The good news is Ireland now only have two residency qualified players in their squad vs NZ's 4 so if we do manage a unlikely win poaching cant really be used as an excuse. Digs aside its a shame to see him sent home like this however, centre is one area where we are pretty ok in terms of depth. Henshaw and Ringrose with Farrell back up is not too shabby.

[Guest]

Rough one, particularly as it felt marginal as a red in the first place, but it's the risk you take.

Were the Samoan players cited for their tackles v Russia? Those were so much worse and mitigated with some fairly weak interpretations of the ball carrier 'dropping' in to the tackle - particularly the second one that lined him up 15 yards away and hammered him around the head.

Either way, rough on Aki, and I think he still adds something Ireland lack - explosive power. Too much slow grind in this Irish team, and not really very much power in the backs at all.

Again, you look at the NZ backline and the Irish backline and other than some nice trickery releasing Stockdale in to space, I'm wondering how and why Ireland would move the ball out there? NZ are lethal and the pace in their back 3 alone could be humiliating.

[Collapse2005]

Chris Farrell and Robbie Henshaw are some pretty big powerful guys. Ringrose not so much but well able to dance his way around people.

[LondonTiger]

Were the Samoan players cited for their tackles v Russia? Those were so much worse and mitigated with some fairly weak interpretations of the ball carrier 'dropping' in to the tackle - particularly the second one that lined him up 15 yards away and hammered him around the head.

Yes they were and both banned.

[Guest]

Good. Shocking tackles, worse refereeing. If there's been a more disappointing team than Samoa this tournament, including Scotland, I can't think of one. Amateurish.

The issue I see for Ireland, particularly in the backs, is having the Scotland problem. Look at Hogg yesterday. You can't do it all if you're static, if your team is struggling for go forward, and if the opposition knows you're a rare threat.

Not sure what to make of Ringrose. Farrell looks like a decent solid player but nothing more to me. There for the basics, there to make others look good. Ringrose? Still waiting for him to burst in to life and, in particular, look lively when on the back foot. This is the game if that is to happen.

If the Irish backline is

10. Sexton
11. Stockdale
12. Farrell/Henshaw
13. Ringrose
14. Earls
15. Kearney (Larmour?)

...then there's something lacking in explosivity and 'fast twitch' pace and power. Wales have a similar issue, even with JD2, Liam Williams, and North all being useful. Sexton isn't going through too many gaps these days, like Biggar, so you're relying on extra threat outside him. I don't really see it in your centres (admit I do like Henshaw but not sure he's lived up to potential), and there's a pace/power issue in general when you compare to whoever NZ will pick in the midfield and the outside backs.

The forwards are where Ireland can win this game. Set piece absolutely 100% key. Get an edge in the scrums and there's always a chance.

What's the Irish pack looking like? Henderson to start? Beirne?

[Collapse2005]

Very harsh on Farrell, great hands for a big man. One of Ireland's best offloaders/passers in my view. Does most things well.

I wouldnt rule out Henshaw and Farrell starting. Ringrose on the bench.

[Guest]

Fair enough. Look forward to seeing what he brings.

[Taylorman]

True, they’re terrible starters. A game plan which requires splitting the opposition completely open from the start makes it somewhat more difficult. For me they have to run Ireland ragged from the start. Any which way they can.

I probably disagree. Much depends on the conditions, but I feel flinging the ball around from minute 1 is the best way to give Ireland a good foothold in this game. While the refs have started looking at the offside line with more scrutiny, Ireland will still e looking to pressure the kiwis with their blitz defence. If NZ play their more usual game of kicking the leather off the ball when nothing is on, almost rope-a-doping Ireland with Barrett running it from deep of turnovers (or from poor kicks) when Ireland start leaving holes or are overcommitted to the breakdown.

You see I didn’t say running Ireland ragged meant ‘flinging the ball around from minute 1’ flinging is exactly what I don’t want them to do in the first 20. They can run Ireland ragged through one ups and drives off the fringes to keep them going backwards. Ireland will try the same. Smiths box kicking has been superb in big matches so there’s that.

I don’t want to see 50/50 passes thrown all over the place...a lot of short tucks to keep momentum going. The main thing is to place control and high intensity over high risk plays. All that does is hands the ball over and kills momentum. After 20 Irish fitness will be on a per man basis and could be ‘scattered’ and there’s no way man for man the Irish are as fit as the ABs judging by their poor finishing.

Simply, get Ireland behind at half time, games as good as over.

So I’m really agreeing with what you’re saying, it was annoying to see them do that versus the non SA sides. For me the first twenty is about removing the fitness levels of the Irish side as far away from the 100% each player started the match with, when focus, alertness, decision making, accuracy, pace is at its peak.

Once you have them stretched, structure starts eroding.

[Taylorman]

Which ref would each team prefer to have?

For the Irish, I'd be tempted to say Wayne Barnes, as whatever the fans think of him he has been very kind to Ireland since at least 2015-ish. Also tends to come down in favour of their interpretation of the ruck.

For NZ? Hard to say. Probably a French ref. Inconsistent means the ABs can 'take the ref out of the game'. Angus Gardner doesn't deserve a knockout game, but if he did get one, NZ would probably want him. Buckles under pressure, and that means favouring the favourites.

Names don't matter really.  A ref that is prepared to be fair...that's all you need, a fighting chance based on equal treatment.  So if NZ do some shady edge-of-legal stuff and keep getting away with it, then the ref should have the guts to allow Ireland slide that close to the edge too.  And vice versa of course...................... maybe

‘Shady edge-of-legal stuff’

Sacre Bleu! Straight out of the Ritchie McCaw book of truths!

[Collapse2005]

I assume Aki can still stay in Japan and train with the squad if needed?

[Taylorman]

Can probably do anything he wants bar be named in the 23. Such a shame that hits you at the peak of your career. Sux.

[Taylorman]

Hard case Schmidt saying he got the Stockdale try last year off a Highlanders play and that he watches Mitre10 for ideas.

Hansen says Schmidt's homework on the ABs could well backfire on him. Good to see the scene being set early.

[Collapse2005]

Schmidt watches everything for ideas. Hansen is just talking himself up as usual, it does come across a bit desperate though.

[Guest]

Can probably do anything he wants bar be named in the 23. Such a shame that hits you at the peak of your career. Sux.

Sounds like he's got a dwarf-tossingly-good week in store then.

[Taylorman]

Schmidt watches everything for ideas. Hansen is just talking himself up as usual, it does come across a bit desperate though.

"Steve Hansen warns Joe Schmidt: 'We might be able to set him up'"

Love it...Run Joe run...

[Taylorman]

Can probably do anything he wants bar be named in the 23. Such a shame that hits you at the peak of your career. Sux.

Sounds like he's got a dwarf-tossingly-good week in store then.

Dunno, great to see his Samoan comrades plead his case for him. Good to see an apple never falls far from the tree, no matter where you are.

[SecretFly]

Which ref would each team prefer to have?

For the Irish, I'd be tempted to say Wayne Barnes, as whatever the fans think of him he has been very kind to Ireland since at least 2015-ish. Also tends to come down in favour of their interpretation of the ruck.

For NZ? Hard to say. Probably a French ref. Inconsistent means the ABs can 'take the ref out of the game'. Angus Gardner doesn't deserve a knockout game, but if he did get one, NZ would probably want him. Buckles under pressure, and that means favouring the favourites.

Names don't matter really.  A ref that is prepared to be fair...that's all you need, a fighting chance based on equal treatment.  So if NZ do some shady edge-of-legal stuff and keep getting away with it, then the ref should have the guts to allow Ireland slide that close to the edge too.  And vice versa of course...................... maybe

‘Shady edge-of-legal stuff’  

Sacre Bleu! Straight out of the Ritchie McCaw book of truths!

Don't be so sensitive, Taylor. Nothing personal. All sides engage in edge-of-legal stuff. Ireland have been known as 'dark art' specialists in the past. Now people say they need French refs to 'legalise' their scrums.

So back to my initial point. All I require is a fair ref, not an exacting one. If said ref wants a little relaxation of rules, so be it, as long as he is fair in the allowances.

BTW, I did cover myself by saying 'vice versa of course' ..................................................... maybe.

[Taylorman]

Yes Ireland are fast becoming the dark arts specialists...they'll go deep!

...they'll go dark... ......

...they'll go deeper...

...they'll go darker... ......

...and when they get there...

....Sam the man Cane will be waiting!...

[majesticimperialman]

I think the ref could be Wayne Barns.

Assistant Nigel Owens

Assistant Jerome Garces

Tmo???

Unless Nigel is going to saved for the final. That would be my guess.

[SecretFly]

Don't think Nigel will get the final. He was corrected once of twice in his last game by video evidence and other officials. I seemed to notice that anyway.
Authority weakening perhaps. Think his more 'relaxed' personal readings might be frowned on this time.

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