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URC Final Run In

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Brendan
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Post by Welshmushroom Mon 11 Apr 2022, 12:25 pm

So we are getting to the business end of the season. Here are the top 9 standings on points and the final game run ins:-

1. Leinster 60 PTS - Sharks (A), Stormers (A), Munster (A)
2. Ulster 50 PTS - Munster (H), Edinburgh (A), Sharks (H)
3. Glasgow 50 PTS - Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Edinburgh (A)
4. Munster 47 PTS - Ulster (A), Cardiff (H), Leinster (H)
5. Stormers 47 PTS - Glasgow (H), Leinster (H), Scarlets (A)
6. Sharks 46 PTS - Leinster (H), Connacht (H), Ulster (A)
7. Edinburgh 44 PTS - Zebre (H), Ulster (H), Glasgow (H)
8. Bulls 43 PTS - Treviso (H), Glasgow (H), Ospreys (A)
9. Scarlets 37 PTS - Dragons (H), Dragons (A), Ospreys (A), Stormers (H)

Just looking at those run in and points teams have currently its going to be interesting. Leinster I reckon will win 1 of those 3 games which could be terrible news for Munster if it turns out to be against them. They have points in the bank so it's fair to say even with 3 losses they would still get a top 4 finish. With Europe currently a main focus I'm not sure if they will travel to SA fully loaded. If they don't I could see them losing both those games (but fairly close margins).

Ulster have 2 home games and they don't lose at Ravenhill often. I'd imagine they will win at least 2 of those run in games so will also get a top 4 finish.

Glasgow I don't think will maintain a top 4 finish. They will need to really play well to get wins in SA on their tour. They are in front of the chasing pack though so even with losses I think they will make the top 8.

Munster could be in real trouble. I don't see them winning at Ulster. Even a 5 pointer against Cardiff might only take them to 52 points. And if Leinster have a poor set of results I can see them coming at Munster fully loaded. For them to drop out of the top 8 would involve them losing 2 out of three games and for Scarlets to win all their remaining games with at least 2 bonus points.

Stormers and Sharks still look good at home - I can see both those side winning 2 out of 3 remaining games which could see both finishing in the top 4.

Edinburgh have all home games. They could end up winning all of those. Think they will miss out on the top 4 and come 5th though.

Bulls should win enough games to win 2 out of three which would see them finish top 8.

Scarlets only hope is to win all 4 final games and probably need to have to bonus point wins (against the Dragons probably) and they need either Glasgow or Munster to lose at least 2 of their remaining games.


If that does happen though and say Munster dropped out of the top 8 that would be a hell of a shock all things considered. I'm not sure Scarlets can pull that off though.

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Post by jimbopip Mon 11 Apr 2022, 1:11 pm

I think The Luvvies (Edinburgh to the uninitiated) will collect 5 points against Zebre but could get nothing after that. From a Glasgow perspective the Luvvies-Ulster match  means one of them will drop points which will help us.
Stormers, fifth place, are on a good run of form and have Glasgow and the Leinster Ladyboys at home; two wins there would practically guarantee them a top four finish but Scarlets away will be tough.
Glasgow could easily lose all three remaining fixtures and could be looking at seventh or eighth place on 50 points. Mind you, a 5 point win in the Annual Slaughter Of The Effeminates is the most likely outcome in Edinburgh and a win against the Bulls and LBP to the Stormers would put Glasgow on 60 points. Ulster should beat Munster but I can see them losing the other two.
I predict Glasgow finishing second with Ulster and Stormers also making the top four.
Mind you I also predict Boris and his cabinet will suffer a collective fit of conscience and resign en masse just after the May local elections. And Karen Gillan will continue to send me those "artistic" selfies despite the restraining order.

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Post by mikey_dragon Mon 11 Apr 2022, 2:06 pm

Looks like Glasgow have the toughest run-in. I can see them losing all 3. Scarlets' toughest game, surprisingly, will be Ospreys away! On current form they could get 10 points from back-to-back games against the Dragons.

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Post by Brendan Mon 11 Apr 2022, 3:06 pm

It will be interesting if Munster or Ulster make it to the Quarters in Europe. In theory they could play each other in the next round.

As Munster Fan it could be a difficult two weeks. Losing the Lions game was a big loss for playoffs as can only see Munster getting 7/8 pts from the remaining three games. That would need Leinster and Ulster to both beat the Sharks and Glasgow to lose their SA games. Then they need Edinburgh and Bulls to get two 2 wins only.

Only hope looks like an away trip to Scotland in the 1/4s to make the semis.

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Post by Hazel Sapling Mon 11 Apr 2022, 6:17 pm

What a run of games Ulster have had since 4th March: Leinster (H), week off, SA tour, Toulouse (A) with Toulouse (H), Munster (H) and Edinburgh (A) in the next three weeks.

If Ulster have a QF in the Champions Cup, I can see them sending a shadow squad to Edinburgh who are unlikely to threaten them for top four. I reckon two wins is enough for Edinburgh to see themselves into the playoffs and Zebre should be a gimme.

Glasgow should be fully loaded for the SA tour having had last week off and Newcastle to come. I think we have started to see some closer results like Edinburgh's win/near miss and Ulster's near miss at Stormers. Would like to think we can have a go, particularly against the Stormers.

How Glasgow and Leinster do in SA will determine the table as the SA sides have difficult away games to finish. If Glasgow or Leinster (or indeed Connacht) overturn any of the three, it might knock them out of the top 8.

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Post by doctor_grey Mon 11 Apr 2022, 6:50 pm

jimbopip wrote:Mind you I also predict Boris and his cabinet will suffer a collective fit of conscience and resign en masse just after the May local elections. And Karen Gillan will continue to send me those "artistic" selfies despite the restraining order.
Day drinking again, mate?

I think Glasgow have the most interesting run in.  All away, but could win 'em all or lose 'em all.

Munster-Leinster to end the season should have a lot riding on it.  Lots 'o blood.  

So many permutations. This is why I love nut cutting time (aka. the end of the season).

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Post by Kingshu Mon 11 Apr 2022, 7:53 pm

The write up there focuses on top 4, but top 2 is equally important, because if they win their Quarter final, they then get a home semi final.

I think Leinster will have a big say in the top 4, they have 3 games against top 4 contenders. If they are still in Europe and have enough of a lead that a top two place in guarenteed, they may well, rest the front line players for Europe and the playoffs and send out weakened teams.

Think there could be uproar at the imbalance of the League if Glasgow pip Ulster for 2nd, or Edinburgh/Glasgow pip Munster for 4th stop. With Glasgow and Edinburgh haveing had 3 much easier games than the Provinces.

I don't think the season should end in Derbies, while I don't think anything untoward will go on, there certainly would be accusations if say Leinster fielded a weakened team, and Munster beat them to finish in the top 4, or Edinburgh beat Glasgow with a bonus point (or the other way round) that gave the most advantageous result, for the Union, in regards to getting teams home knock out games. It would be better to have these earlier in the season to avoid any accusations.

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Post by Hazel Sapling Mon 11 Apr 2022, 9:09 pm

Agree on the derbies Kingshu, where there is similar ownership, even the appearance of something dodgy should be avoided.

I would say on the balance of the divisions, Ireland was always going to be the strongest. Unless we play 30 games, there is no fair way of doing it other than maximising local derbies where possible.

SA has been strong at home and poor away, Wales is a morass of average sides with maybe Scarlets the best (and the most stuffed by Omicron/SA cancellation) and Benetton have (somehow) beaten both Edinburgh and Glasgow by a point this season.

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Post by BigGee Mon 11 Apr 2022, 9:25 pm

Kingshu wrote:

Think there could be uproar at the imbalance of the League if Glasgow pip Ulster for 2nd, or Edinburgh/Glasgow pip Munster for 4th stop. With Glasgow and Edinburgh haveing had 3 much easier games than the Provinces.


I can only see that happening if Glasgow win at least 2 and more probably all three of their games, all away!

If they did that, then they really would deserve it! My gut feeling is that we will fall short of top 4 though, our away form has just been to patchy and that loss to Cardiff has likely done our chances.


Munster have not taken their opportunities over the season, so will likely end up where they deserve. In truth they will struggle to make the top 4 and may not even make top 8 if results go against them.


On the whole though, there remain lots of permutations about who might finish where with three games to go, which suggests that the league has been pretty competitive and lots of sides can beat others on their day. The last few rounds will be very exciting.

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Post by Brendan Tue 12 Apr 2022, 10:40 am

Originally Glasgow and Edinburgh were facing Leinster and Munster in some order. The Unions and League agreed to swap the final games for the derbies that would have been played during the 6 nations so both unions could get their biggest crowds for the games (as the Christmas Derbies had been a write off)

I think most derbies generally the weak them do much better and throw up more surprises. I can't see Leinster letting Munster get anything from their game and would take great joy in making them finish way down the table.

Going off previous 1872 games I would be surprised if Edinburgh give Glasgow easy points to finish higher up. They will only care about themselves and getting their best result.

On the Sheilds I would say Ireland are slightly strongest ahead of SA only because of Leinster. I would then have the Scot/It just ahead of Wales and just below them. Their isn't much between all the teams apart from Leinster, Zebre and Dragons.

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Post by jimbopip Tue 12 Apr 2022, 10:53 am

Brendan wrote:Originally Glasgow and Edinburgh were facing Leinster and Munster in some order.  The Unions and League agreed to swap the final games for the derbies that would have been played during the 6 nations so both unions could get their biggest crowds for the games (as the Christmas Derbies had been a write off)

I think most derbies generally the weak them do much better and throw up more surprisesThis is true inasmuch as the Luvvies often scrape a Losing BP and once every decade or so actually manage an unconvincing win.  .  I can't see Leinster letting Munster get anything from their game and would join the rest of us in taking great joy in making them finish way down the table.

Going off previous 1872 games I would be surprised if Edinburgh give Glasgow easy much trouble at all while they collect five  points to finish higher up.  They will only care about keeping their kit clean, protecting themselves and bugger  getting their best result.

On the Sheilds I would say Ireland are slightly strongest ahead of SA only because of Leinster.  I would then have the Scot/It just ahead of Wales and just below them.  Their isn't much between all the teams apart from Leinster, Zebre and Dragons.
Fixed that for you Whistle

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Post by Brendan Tue 12 Apr 2022, 11:06 am

Shield Total points
Ireland 189/3.15 per match
SA 166/2.76
Scot/Italy 120/2.11
Wales 101/1.91

Games compeditive (win or LBP)
Leinster 14/15 93%
Ulster 13/15 87%
Glasgow 13/15 87%
Munster 13/15 87%
Stormers 11/15 73%
Sharks 10/15 67%
Edinburgh 11/15 73%
Bulls 12/15 80%
Scarlets 9/14 64%
Connacht 8/15 53%
Ospreys 8/14 57%
Lions 7/15 47%
Benetton 7/14 50%
Cardiff 6/13 46%
Dragons 4/12 33%
Zebre 1/13 8%

This year there does seem to be a top 9 and bottom 7 but at home most of the bottom 7 are hard to beat.  As you can see other than the bottom 2 the weaker teams have still picked up a good few wins against the top teams.
Lions beat Munster, Edinburgh & Stormers
Connacht beat Munster, Scarlets, Bulls, Stormers
Cardiff beat Leinster, Sharks, Glasgow
Benetton beat Glasgow, Edinburgh, Stormers
Ospreys beat Munster, Ulster, Edinburgh

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Post by Brendan Tue 12 Apr 2022, 11:15 am

jimbopip wrote:
Brendan wrote:Originally Glasgow and Edinburgh were facing Leinster and Munster in some order.  The Unions and League agreed to swap the final games for the derbies that would have been played during the 6 nations so both unions could get their biggest crowds for the games (as the Christmas Derbies had been a write off)

I think most derbies generally the weak them do much better and throw up more surprisesThis is true inasmuch as the Luvvies often scrape a Losing BP and once every decade or so actually manage an unconvincing win.  .  I can't see Leinster letting Munster get anything from their game and would join the rest of us in taking great joy in making them finish way down the table.

Going off previous 1872 games I would be surprised if Edinburgh give Glasgow easy much trouble at all while they collect five  points to finish higher up.  They will only care about keeping their kit clean, protecting themselves and bugger  getting their best result.

On the Sheilds I would say Ireland are slightly strongest ahead of SA only because of Leinster.  I would then have the Scot/It just ahead of Wales and just below them.  Their isn't much between all the teams apart from Leinster, Zebre and Dragons.
Fixed that for you Whistle

Sure the unwashed might actually hold on to it for two years in a row.

I heard Cockers got the new stadium approved by the SRU for Edinburgh under the condition that the 1872 went West so he made his team play bad so Glasgow were good enough to win.

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Post by Guest Sat 16 Apr 2022, 9:39 pm

Boom! Take that Scarlets! All along I was assuming that Dragons would cave in like we usually do. But no! We kept coming back.

2nd away win of the season. 100% of our wins have been away this season. Odd!

Anyway, as much as I would have liked Scarlets to make it into the latter stages of the league I think this puts them out of range now? Or at least dented their chances somewhat.

A mention to Jack Dixon - I’ve been a big critic over the years but he’s put together a couple of cracking performances now clap

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Post by mikey_dragon Sat 16 Apr 2022, 9:40 pm

I guess that didn’t go to plan…

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Post by Brendan Mon 18 Apr 2022, 4:58 pm

Well done Dragons few saw that coming.  While the Scarlets can still make the playoffs with their bad points difference they are effectively 6pts behind.

With Edinburgh playing Zebre and Bulls playing Benetton it may be hard to make up the difference over 3 games.  Ospreys and Stormers will be hard games for Scarlets.

If (and it's a big if) Ospreys win their game in hand then that game second last game becomes a much bigger fight for the last Champions Cup spot.

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