Y/E No. 1 looking ahead

July seems very early to be thinking about this, but.....

Djoko is at 13,285 and is defending some 3,815 points.

Nadal is at 11,270 (I think with 500 to gain) and is defending 4,220 points.

Fed is at 9,230 and is defending 5,500 odd points

Murray is at 6,855 and is defending 3,100 odd points

For me one of the most striking stats is how few points Djoko has to defend in the four remaining TMS tournies - 990 out of 4,000. Last year the USO and the Davis Cup seem to have absorbed his efforts significantly and as a likely Semi-finalist or better at the USO a drop of more than 500 points would be a shock. He is not likely to lose points from now on - in fact it is not difficult to see where Djoko may even pick up a few points without even needing to play to the standards he has established this year.

Murray was patchy last year and has plenty of opportunities to gain points, but he is also defending the big deal of two TMS wins so he may find it tough to make much progress points-wise.

With Nadal, and even more so with Fed, it looks as though either of them will be doing very well to hang on to what they have got over the next 5 months.

Things can change quickly in tennis, injuries being the most obvious example, but on the year so far I don't think it's overly hyperbolic to say that the chances of this pack being re-shuffled come December are not great but that the main battle may be between Fed and Murray for No. 3.

On current form and given the heights their games can reach the most obvious dangermen outside the top 4 are Tsonga and Del Potro but history suggests that with one slam and one TMS win between them their challenge is more likely to come in particular tournaments rather than a persistent drive up the rankings.

Others might say that this is getting too predictable - I say that it is fantastic that the men's game demands such sustained excellence from those who would seek to be numbered amongst the best.

barrystar you're being a little harsh on Del Potro since he is just about back to full fitness and still only (is it?) 22.

He didn't win that slam by chance and is more likely IMO to be a bigger challenger to the top 3 than Tsonga.

Murray will need to look over his shoulder because the next big challenge to Djokovic and Nadal may well come from Juan Martin.

Re del Potro - I am referring to the next 5 months. I accept that del Boy may well mature into a more consistent peformer, but not so as to trouble the top 4 before Christmas

My expectation -

Djokovic will probably gain some points over the rest of the season, and pull out a respectable lead as #1 by year end. It would be a big surprise given his form this year if he does not win more Masters events, and he will go in to the USO as the favourite.

Nadal - gains a free 500 points, but will do well to defend what he has even with this bonus. A USO repeat win would be quite a big surprise to me, as Djokovic clearly has the hex on him, and Murray would also go in to a match against him at FM looking for the win.

Federer - Lots of MS points (and Master Cup) to defend. Unlikely to be as consistent as he was for the 2nd half of last season, so will need to have a better USO to buffer against dropping other points. Definitely more at risk from Murray for the #3 spot than a challenger to Nadal for #2.

Murray - Will be looking to perform better in the USO, so that gives him the scope to gain significant points. The MS events were a bit of a roller coaster last year - win 1, lose badly in one, and repeat. With Djokovic in such knock-out form, winning one would be a good achievement, so will need to consistently make the SF or F of events to build on his points haul.

It will be interesting to see how close Del Potro can get to the top 4 by year end - he is currently 19th with 1625 points but with no points to defend from here on in. Obviously that means 1 slam and 4 MS events, but also 3 MS 500 events to add for free (and one 250 event where he can improve). Definitely a reasonable chance that he'll be up to #5 by year end with 4000+ points, especially given that Soderling's points include 1000 from winning the Paris Masters in November 2010, so he's got much to lose (I expect Ferrer to stay at about his current total).

Federer will have to battle hard to get back to number 2 but I think it is vital for him he wants to increase his chances of winning more slams. Having to battle Djoko and Nadal on the trott is too much for him.

Shame he can't get to number 2 befor teh USO....he woudl have a good chance to win it had Djoko v Nadal been made to face each other in the semi...late on Saturday. Lot's of ifs I agree.

All that actually matters to Federer - if he can't be #2 - is not being #5. #3 and #4 have no difference when it comes to draws.

Fed is in a hard place to win a Slam now, but what's surprising about that given he'll be 30 when the next one comes around and is married with kids. Not a classic Slam winning formula.