Surprise RWC team

Well no surprises, Argentina was last year´s surprise team. Following close behind was England - they outperformed Argentina but really their RWC pedigree doesn´t make that such a big surprise. The surprise was they were able to turn around their shocking form before the World Cup, overcome that embarrassing pool defeat to SA and average pool play and then front up for the games where it really counted. But Argentina, without a professional league, somehow managed to get to the semis by doing what they did best and drawing the opposition into doing what they wanted. It wasn´t pretty to watch but my hat went off to them for their sheer bloody-minded determination and efficacy.

So who will be our surprise team this year. Plenty of candidates. The PI teams will never get a chance to play in a World Cup with so much ´home´support. Fiji, Samoa and Tonga have a great chance to pull off not just one upset but maybe a string of them. Samoa showed against Australia that if you take them lightly and they get ahead on the scoreboard, they grow twice in size and start making the important tackles and big hits they wouldn´t do if they´re way behind. In short, they are confidence teams who can play above themselves if the adrenaline is high and they have a sniff of victory. Put that together with the home support factor and they are going to be a huge threat.

Next, Ireland have had dire preparation for this World Cup. I´m sure they have been written off by many punters. But each time they have come to NZ they have played their best rugby against the ABs. Last year was their best performance at home in a while but I think these guys in green are capable of their best rugby when the pressure is off. Let´s face it, with those warm-up matches, expectations are pretty low. But that´s where I think they´re at their most dangerous. They came to Australia in 2003 with high expectations and almost lost to Georgia. That was one of the most memorable things about their World Cup. They come to NZ with their confidence knocked. But will that stoke up the fires and see them come out blazing? I have a feeling we´ll see a different Ireland. That Australia match is going to be an absolute gem. I for one can´t wait.

The bottom half of the 6N. Scotland, Italy and Wales. I think out of all those Wales seem to have the best chances of being the surprise team. Let´s face it, they haven´t had a good few years in the 6N and haven´t had good results against the SH sides. But they were capable of winning a lot more games. If they can pull it altogether the belief will grow and they can be a big threat as that scrum in particular can provide a very good platform for them. Scotland are like supporting the Hurricanes. You never know what you´re going to get. But they are a similar side to Argentina in terms of negating the opposition strengths and playing to their own strengths - getting field position and scoring points divisible by three. My only concern for them is that they´re up against sides in their pool that have similar strengths, although England has clearly regained its attacking thrust in the backs that had been missing for a while. Italy is another team in this mode but for me Wales, if they get it right (and yes it´s a big if) they have more of a chance to go further in the tournament than Scotland for example.

The minnows. I enjoy watching Japan no matter who they play against. They´re no slouches after winning the Pacific cup. They´re in a pool of death for them but can they spring an upset against France or New Zealand? Unlikely touching on fantastical but Michael Bolton sold millions of CDs so anything is theoretically possible. We have some great match-ups like USA vs Russia but which minnow has the best chance of a top tier upset?

Lastly, will the biggest surprise happen and the ABs manage to win the thing?

Undoubtedly, there are many surprises in store for us. That´s what makes this tournament so special. But who do you think will spring the biggest surprise?

If the tournament was held in europe I would have thought Wales and Ireland would have a better chance of improving their record, but somehow this year I think it is going to be hard.

Argentina is an unknown quantity as last time round, they have decent players, but you do not know what to expect from them as they rarely play their best team in between world cups.

Samoa for me will be the one team exceeding expectations if there were a team to do that.

I reckon the NH teams will go well here. Wales and ireland as they were here last year and went ok.
The other reason is the timing suits them. Fresh. Beginning of their season.a nh sh upset is on the cards somewhere.
But im picking samoa to star.
They have a number of professionals and their support will border on CRAZY.

Agree with Samoa. They look a very decent outfit and have some real classy backs.