Samoa Looking Accurate

So with Fotuali'i and Pisi in the pivot, Samoa are looking very accurate.

Both the tactical and goal kicking this morning was first rate (certainly put the woeful performance of a certain Jonny Wilkinson to shame).

In the past the Samoans have been ferocious defenders with power and pace in the backs, but struggled for organised systems, patience and accuracy.

Granted Namibia are arguably the worst side in the tournament and offered little in the way of resistance but Samoa looked tremendously composed in dishing out a hiding this morning. The side look good for their hit out, in what was little more than a training run.

With their world cup well underway, a recent victory over Tri-nations champions Australia under their belt, plenty of S15 and northern hemisphere club rugby experience to call on and game breakers all over the park, Samoa are currently punching well above their IRB ranking.

How're you Welsh fullas feeling? Sitting comfortably?

I think Samoa will win, they have nothing to lose compared to Wales, not that I think Wales are a poor team, on their day they can beat anyone

I'd say Samoa would have less to lose than Wales in this instance...

I am not so sure Samoa is all sorted, Namibia was very poor in the tight phases, their scrum was under pressure, their line out very poor, many skew throw ins, ball under the hooker feeds, and their backline lost a lot of ball, if I remeber correctly 4 of their tries came from counter attack.

So yes they are extremely dangerous on the counter attack against a team that aren't defensively organised, and let's face it, their players are far too strong and physical for namibia to challenge in the breakdowns and tight phases.

Samoa needs a bigger test, and I am sure Wales will oblige.

Not much changes really everyone knew this would happen. Still though Wales vs Samoa could possible be game of the world cup pools.

Irish Curry wrote:Not much changes really everyone knew this would happen. Still though Wales vs Samoa could possible be game of the world cup pools.

aye, laddie, it is to be true.

Wales just need to stay composed and believe that their accuracy at the breakdown will pay off in the end. I reckon as long as the Welsh defense keeps a very high standard and we find our kicking boots, both to the corner and for the sticks we will win we the game.

Dunno, Samoa blew Australia away at the breakdown. Wales struggled in that department against South Africa.

Having just watched the match,Samoa did`nt lose shape till the last quarter.They had a couple of injuries,there set piece was mostly good,they kickedmost or all of there goals.
This isn`t a South African side,who ran twice and scored twice.they are capable of running all the time.
At the moment Samoa and Fiji top the group with bonus points,the only thing going for Wales and SA.
Is first Samoa only have a few days before meeting Wales.I thought that was changed after 1987.with a week between games.
Secondly Fiji and Samoa have to play each other,that fact may decide who goes thru from this group.

Bonus points will be crucial,a bonus point win versus Samoa and Namibia is
essential for Wales,then fiji will be crunch

TheGreyGhost wrote:Dunno, Samoa blew Australia away at the breakdown. Wales struggled in that department against South Africa.

wales struggled at that area??? GG which match were you watching, wales dominated in at the breakdown, completely out classed the SA backrow.

welshy824 wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:Dunno, Samoa blew Australia away at the breakdown. Wales struggled in that department against South Africa.

wales struggled at that area??? GG which match were you watching, wales dominated in at the breakdown, completely out classed the SA backrow.

I've seen a lot of games, it's possible I'm forgetful, but that's not how I recall it.

I remember Wales doing lots of attacking, but in the usual lateral, non penetrative way. I recall SA getting up a head of steam twice, running over Wales with massive momentum, and getting quick ball out for a couple of scores. The rest of the game was SA sitting back in defense and popping down the long kicks.

TheGreyGhost wrote:

welshy824 wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:Dunno, Samoa blew Australia away at the breakdown. Wales struggled in that department against South Africa.

wales struggled at that area??? GG which match were you watching, wales dominated in at the breakdown, completely out classed the SA backrow.

I've seen a lot of games, it's possible I'm forgetful, but that's not how I recall it.

I remember Wales doing lots of attacking, but in the usual lateral, non penetrative way. I recall SA getting up a head of steam twice, running over Wales with massive momentum, and getting quick ball out for a couple of scores. The rest of the game was SA sitting back in defense and popping down the long kicks.

But where do you mention the breakdown ? Even the South African players say the Welsh team swamped them there

I haven't been talking to the SA players. Presumably you have quotes from each of them?

brussow played well but him aside wales were on top at the breakdown. as a quins fan i'm really looking forward to fa'asavalu coming up against warburton

Historically Wales and Samoa have played 7 times, Wales winning 4, Samoa 3.

Wales last played Samoa in 2009 and pretty much the entire Samoan team is still in the squad today, 7-8 of them were in the team that beat Australia. At the time Wales were in the dumps and struggling to beat anyone. Wales won 17-13, and had about 70% possession, they didn't turn it into points which is the only reason the scoreline was so close. A game was only made of it in the last 18 minutes, when with Wales lining up to score a try. Dan Biggar with a 4 man over lap threw a reckless pass and a Samoan center went in for a length of the field interception try.

I'd say the game is Wales to lose, though they are prone to losing games they should win. If Wales play smart, play in the right areas, and kick for the corners then pressurise the line out, Wales will win easily. If Wales play stupid, look for contact, and lose the ball in contact, Samoa will win.

Wales have a stronger line out, far better scrum, tighter defence, are fitter, and have had 7 days rest, compared to 3 for Samoa.

Fly-half Tusi Pisi went off early with a hamstring injury, and flanker Taiasina Tuifua with a rib injury. Pisi would be a huge loss if he misses the Wales game.

welshy824 wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:Dunno, Samoa blew Australia away at the breakdown. Wales struggled in that department against South Africa.

wales struggled at that area??? GG which match were you watching, wales dominated in at the breakdown, completely out classed the SA backrow.

Welshy, let's not go over the top now. That was not exactly the case, there were stages where Wales dominated as did SA

To say "wales dominated in at the breakdown, completely out classed the SA backrow" seems a bit of a stretch. The stats give a snapshot of an element of the breakdown:

SA - 90% of rucks won and 8 turnovers conceded
Wales - 94% of rucks won and 14 turnovers conceded

Thanks Hawalsh.

Yep. Looks like Wales completely outclassed SA there, right.

On their day Wales can outclass anyone

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:On their day Wales can outclass anyone

Well played.

Before placing all faith behind those figures I'd check the source. It's been brought to recent attention that no two sources seem to have the exact same set of stats and it is rather easy to dig up stats that correspond to your liking rather than the truth.

But let's not forget the original point GG, what made you say that Wales struggled at the breakdown on Sunday when clearly they didn't?

On their day there are a number of teams that can beat anyone, it is just the regularity of the occasion that varies. For some it is as scares as haley's comet

Just watched the Samoa game, wouldn't normally post but I think we're missing something here. Namibia were AWFUL. Samoa looked ok, absolutely, as did Wales at the weekend, but at least Wales were playing someone!

Granted Namibia are arguably the worst side in the tournament and offered little in the way of resistance

I didn't miss it.

Knowsit17 wrote:Before placing all faith behind those figures I'd check the source. It's been brought to recent attention that no two sources seem to have the exact same set of stats and it is rather easy to dig up stats that correspond to your liking rather than the truth.

But let's not forget the original point GG, what made you say that Wales struggled at the breakdown on Sunday when clearly they didn't?

Well, they lost for starters.

ultra wrote:Just watched the Samoa game, wouldn't normally post but I think we're missing something here. Namibia were AWFUL. Samoa looked ok, absolutely, as did Wales at the weekend, but at least Wales were playing someone!

Well GG did mention that in his opening post.
Thats why hes focussed on the accuracy of the kicking and organisation of Samoa, areas you dont traditonaly think of them as being strong in. Those arentso hghly affected by the opposition as other areass of the game so its far to judge how good Samoa are n those areas from this game (one off game caveats applied)

The kicking certainly put Dan Carter to shame.

Wales can beatthem, but this expected is the pool to watch. Better than the heap of poo England got lumped in with (no I dont mean the British Isles)

I'm not a betting man and I don't even claim to understand betting odds but out of interest what do the bookies think the result will be ?

disneychilly wrote:I'd say Samoa would have less to lose than Wales in this instance...

astonishingly incisive assessment. Where did you come up with that?!

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
Wales can beatthem, but this expected is the pool to watch. Better than the heap of poo England got lumped in with (no I dont mean the British Isles)

You know what they say, if you poo where you live, you end up living in a toilet.

Sorry, yep got that in the original post, what I meant was rather than just being the lowest ranked they were truly dire, and they didn't look much better against Fiji. But granted Samoa looked a lot more 'together' and directed than in recent years. However, much as it pains me to say it, Wales looked rather tidy themselves against a big, well drilled, powerful SA unit. A team that I think is now slightly more maligned than is deserved.
The welsh against SA were as organised and directed as the Samoans against Namibia. Just think looking organised against a team of plumbers and taxi drivers isn't quite the same as doing it against one of the best in the world!

TheGreyGhost wrote:Well, they lost for starters.

Sorry but at the risk of looking foolish in attempting to pry you away from your blissful obliviousness, that's not answering the question. You stated that Wales struggled at the breakdown, not the general result. Now back it up and prove that you're not simply spitting words from your backside.

Knowsit17 wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:Well, they lost for starters.

Sorry but at the risk of looking foolish in attempting to pry you away from your blissful obliviousness, that's not answering the question. You stated that Wales struggled at the breakdown, not the general result. Now back it up and prove that you're not simply spitting words from your backside.

Watch him do a big fat curler on your doorstep....you asked for it

Cymroglan wrote:I'm not a betting man and I don't even claim to understand betting odds but out of interest what do the bookies think the result will be ?

There's probably a bit of skew in the UK bookies odds (not many Samoans in the UK to place bets, so the bookies will set their odds higher to attract bets). And unfortunatley the NZ TAB (which would have a skew in the opposite direction) hasn't opened a book on the Wales v Samoa game yet.

However, 1 pound bet on Samoa will net you £3 profit if they win, whereas the same pound on Wales would net 36 pence. So it's fair to say the UK bookies think Wales will win.

Gatts wrote:

disneychilly wrote:I'd say Samoa would have less to lose than Wales in this instance...

astonishingly incisive assessment. Where did you come up with that?!

Well the Samoans wont have to put uop with all the greif from us for a start...

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

Gatts wrote:

disneychilly wrote:I'd say Samoa would have less to lose than Wales in this instance...

astonishingly incisive assessment. Where did you come up with that?!

Well the Samoans wont have to put uop with all the greif from us for a start...

fair shout...i have PMT

Knowsit17 wrote:Before placing all faith behind those figures I'd check the source.

They're from the espnscrum website, provided by the specialist sports data group OPTA, who supply most of the big teams, broadcasters, media and the betting industry.

Paddypower have the handicap at 9 points in favour of Wales, and Samoa at 3/1 FTW
However as pointed out that is probably skewed by the site attracting a lot of loyalty bets to Wales.

Wales should be favourtes though, and wouldve beaten SA if they got 1.5 points for that penalty.

Well just watching the game now and there are good reasons for Wales to be concerned.

Wales will have fitness (not least because of the scheduling) but there are few areas where they will have a real advantage. Namibia were pants in most areas (especially set piece) but the Samoans looked organized. and of course very strong, in scrum and line out and they are no mugs on the floor.

Lot of samoan handling errors tho.

Cheers guys

Wales must be getting better as a side, everyone has started wanting us to lose. Are we the new England?

ultra wrote:Sorry, yep got that in the original post, what I meant was rather than just being the lowest ranked they were truly dire, and they didn't look much better against Fiji. But granted Samoa looked a lot more 'together' and directed than in recent years. However, much as it pains me to say it, Wales looked rather tidy themselves against a big, well drilled, powerful SA unit. A team that I think is now slightly more maligned than is deserved.
The welsh against SA were as organised and directed as the Samoans against Namibia. Just think looking organised against a team of plumbers and taxi drivers isn't quite the same as doing it against one of the best in the world!

Not to mention the considerable loss of pace and power from the Samoans in the final quarter, allowing Namibia to notch up two scores. In our last 3 or 4 tests Wales have looked far closer to an 80-minute side with overall fitness levels outstripping those of higher-ranked counterparts than Samoa.

Our B side had the physique to beat the Samoans two years ago but not the mental edge and finishing ability to put the result beyond doubt. Based on what I've already stated, I believe we have the physical advantage this Sunday but that won't make the game ours unless coupled with that hitherto inconsistant bottle needed to shut the game out.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Paddypower have the handicap at 9 points in favour of Wales, and Samoa at 3/1 FTW
However as pointed out that is probably skewed by the site attracting a lot of loyalty bets to Wales.

Wales should be favourtes though, and wouldve beaten SA if they got 1.5 points for that penalty.

Why 1.5? You do realise 1.001 would have been sufficient, and a lot easier to negotiate with the referee.

To be fair, it was Barnes - he's notoriously flexible on the laws.

Probably you could've got two penalties for the price of one.

biltongbek wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Paddypower have the handicap at 9 points in favour of Wales, and Samoa at 3/1 FTW
However as pointed out that is probably skewed by the site attracting a lot of loyalty bets to Wales.

Wales should be favourtes though, and wouldve beaten SA if they got 1.5 points for that penalty.

Why 1.5? You do realise 1.001 would have been sufficient, and a lot easier to negotiate with the referee.

If cueto can ask for 11 points for a try then Wales can ask 1.5 forthat surely?

Shaun Edwards
"The game against South Africa really was a tough game but... the best way to prepare for a tough game is to have a tough game.

AlynDavies wrote:Historically Wales and Samoa have played 7 times, Wales winning 4, Samoa 3.

Wales last played Samoa in 2009 and pretty much the entire Samoan team is still in the squad today, 7-8 of them were in the team that beat Australia. At the time Wales were in the dumps and struggling to beat anyone. Wales won 17-13, and had about 70% possession, they didn't turn it into points which is the only reason the scoreline was so close. A game was only made of it in the last 18 minutes, when with Wales lining up to score a try. Dan Biggar with a 4 man over lap threw a reckless pass and a Samoan center went in for a length of the field interception try.

The difference at world cups though is that Samoa will have had a lot longer together. When they play in the autumn they've generally had a pitiful amount of training time. Wales will rightly be favourites, but I'm not sure that game in 2009 is much of a form guide.

Yes, looking at the history in world cups isn't so flattering.

I'm not sure we can read anything into Wales doing their best in the RWC that Samoa didn't attend.

Last week many posters said that Wales had no chance against South Africa at least this week most say there is a slight possibility we may sneak this one

Should be a great game. Two weeks in a row, the game involving Wales is the game of the weekend. There's a compliment...

TheGreyGhost wrote:Should be a great game. Two weeks in a row, the game involving Wales is the game of the weekend. There's a compliment...

bet you nearly choked on it