Why South Africa lost.

Let me start of with the fact that South Africa did not lose because of the lack of physicality, their tight five, determination or the lack of trying. Any team with 76% of the territory and spending a total of almost 12 minutes in the opponents 22 can not be accused of not playing the game.

I don’t want to start recording statistics of this match as we all know apart from the score board just about every statistic was heavily favoring the springboks. The question is then, why did they lose?

Well I am sure most of you expect me to start with Bryce Lawrence, well I am not going to discuss him here as acknowledging his role in this match will be to acknowledge the fact that he had a clue of what went on during the match.

Instead I want to focus on the real issues.

Missing players.
Juan Smith is in my opinion the quintessential ball carrier, a harder worker on the rugby field will be difficult to find, we missed him terribly badly.

Frans Steyn, his ability to get over the gain line, his distribution and his ability to kick 50 plus meter penalties was irreplaceable.

Andries Bekker/Bakkies Botha. Although Danie Rossouw had a very good world cup, the physicality of either of those two players were needed today, not just in cleaning the rucks but their general impact they have on the South African tight five.

Decision making.
In the first half John Smit refused two kickable goals when SA was down 5-0, although the momentum was with SA, this was still a knock out match and in contradiction to the game plan employed during the past 8 years, was the first time I can remember South Africa not go for posts.

Late in the second half when SA was leading 9-8 there was a ruck 5 meters from the Australian line and Morne Steyn signalled to Fourie du Preez that he wanted one more forward going into a drive and he went into the pocket for the drop goal, but Francois Hougaard did the run around the ruck with the short ball being fed by Fourie du Preez.

Those were three decisive mistakes made by two very senior and experienced springboks.

Adaptability.
After the first test against Wales, the South African coaching staff was flummoxed by the way Barnes officiated the breakdown. Instead of discussing it at half time and adapting to the way Barnes was officiating the breakdown South Africa continued in the same vain and did not adapt.

During the Samoa match South Africa were once again at odds with the way Nigel Owens officiated not only the breakdown but also seemingly allowing Samoa to continue the niggly bits and once again did not adapt to the situation.

By the time South Africa had to face Australia you would have expected them to have come to the realisation that any talks with a referee before hand will by now have proven fruitless and that adaptability on the day was the key.

But yet once again when Pocock and co went into rucks guns ablazing and with little regard to the daylight rule and not being pinged, South Africa should have adapted. After all they could risk it as they were very seldom in their own half and didn’t have to worry about the penalty kicks to post from within the Australian half.

White line fever.
How many knocks did South Africa have with an open try line? Two or three by my count. Two forward passes on the attack didn’t help either. Whether you want to call it execution, white line fever or just plain bad luck, but none of it helped.

Change of game plan.
It is all good and well to play the way that they did, but this does not mean you entirely forsake the basics of what has been ingrained into your soul for the past 8 years. You don’t go into a knock out match with a “new” process and stick to it come hell or high water. At some point in time you need to realise that the basic principles of your plan needs to remain in place.

The try Australia scored was off a mistake made because of the new plan, when do you see a springbok team running from their own try line? Instead of clearing the ball to touch, Schalk burger recieves the ball on his try line to run it up, voila mistake made, turn over and try for Australia.

Intelligence.
I have said this before and I will continue to say this until eventually SARU decides to appoint a coach in the mould of John Mitchell who teaches his players to think about what they are doing. Intelligence is a scarce commodity in the current Springbok line up and is vital for future success.

Summary.
Hopefully SARU will look to appoint a coach with experience and pedigree, hopefully they will forsake this foolish notion of being politically correct and start thinking about getting their house in order. The springboks did rather well over the past 4 years considering that rugby has evolved whilst South African rugby has stagnated in a cryogenic state since Jake White’s dismissal. As much as I believe Pieter de Villiers did as much as was in his capabilities, he simply did not have the technical nous to be the coach of a top three nation.

SARU must look towards Nick Mallet or if he is interested someone like John Mitchell who I have come to respect and admire, not only for his technical abilities but also for the manner in which he communicates his vast knowledge to an armchair critic like myself.

Now is the time for South African rugby to take a bold new step and keep the basic foundation of what their players offer, but to move into a new direction with the way they approach the game. Otherwise I fear we may well find ourselves the worst performing politically correct team in world rugby.

The sad part for me is the fact that I mentioned all these factors at the end of the 2009 Tri Nations and it provides me no pleasure in saying “I told you so”.

Hi,Biltong you have your wish PDV is history,you have lost key players which may have given you the game.
The team deviated from there established game plan,Samoa said they were
playing against 16 players.
Breakdown area is crucial teams like Argentina have successfully slowed the ball in that area versus England,Wales,Scotland and New Zealand.
Both yourselves and Ireland refused kickable goal chances at the cake tin,which is notoriously awkward for kickers.
I know it is old fashioned but for me if you have the chance of points attempt them.
In a tight match thats the difference John Mitchell? good forwards coach Robbie Deans was backs coach.
When the All Blacks did the headless chicken bit with King Carlos,he`d have been better with Merths.
He likes flair at FH,Lambie for Morne Steyn? now that would be an irony Carlos Spencer /John Mitchell coaching the Boks at least King Carlos could get the B******rs running.
How many vets are moving on,Juan Smith,Habana,DuPreez,Smit,Matfield,Bakkies botha, Butch James.?

Well done Biltong...

At least there's now firm ratification of the need for a change. Ref wasnt good but you're right, there's more too it than that. Unfortunately we'll bear the brunt of that in the next 2-3 years I think. I'd love to see what GH could do with SA rugby. (Heck, didnt mean that, hes retiring).

Mitchell you know Kiwis thoughts on. Technically he's good but managing a team in the International environment he just doesn't have the people skills and tends to close shop.

He may have mellowed and he might suit a harder SA approach so we'll see there.

Hopefully you'll hang around to see who lifts the trophy (I will- I mean Ive been hanging around for 24 years now! so it could be worse!)

Seems to me the big question is would you have lost if Brussow had stayed on. Ok so you already had a shed load of possession but i still think his absence let Pocock rule the ruck. That and Steyn, boy did you miss him.

Sometime during the week i wiil watch one of the replays of this game,if only to find some explanation as to why the scoreline doesnt reflect all the other statistics of this match.
Other than that Biltong I will keep my gob shut as you might only be a week ahead of us.

Gatts wrote:Seems to me the big question is would you have lost if Brussow had stayed on. Ok so you already had a shed load of possession but i still think his absence let Pocock rule the ruck. That and Steyn, boy did you miss him.

Gatts I am not so sure Brussow would have made the difference, it was the approach that SA took with these rucks, I see ths morning John Smit said he spoke to Bryce Lawrence during the game about the breakdowns but Lawrence didn't want to listen.

The problem is if the referee doesn't listen you tell your players to adapt.

The margins between winning & losing at this level are so small that finding a definitive answer is subjective.
SA could have won on Sun, no doubt and they could have gone on to win the whole thing. Sometimes competitions hinge on the bounce of a single ball.

Take away injuries however and SA still had major deficiencies which were not addressed between 07-11.

Handling of ‘Star’ players.

Both NZ & Aus have been known for being ruthless with players who have previously been top performers but have dropped down the pecking order. They get their central contracts withdrawn and told… ‘go build your pension in the NH, we don’t need you anymore’.
Its ruthless but at the same time they always go into world cups with fresh teams (bar injuries) and most notably new talent which has been thoroughly blooded beforehand.

SA has not done this… they (or at least PDV) has remained loyal to many (hate to say it but) hasbeens. Habana scored 2 tries in this RWC… even if the boks gameplan didn’t compliment his style its poor, yet nothing more then expected.
Smit should have gone after 09 and you could argue the case too for JDV, Bakkies & even Victor.

The only exception was with Frans Steyn. Yes he got a big offer from RM in France but if PDV & SARU realised that he was the key player for the boks and decided to build their team around him then I doubt he would have gone. He left because he was getting no love from PDV and was being thrown about the backline ala James Hook as much as the financial opportunities which were offered to him.

Fine they brought him back but only recent injury to JDV pushed him back to his natural position of 12. RWC teams generally revolve around settled teams rather than ones which rely on individual brilliance.
Look how Aus treated Giteau when he was their sole genuine WC player or Rocky Elsom… they showered them with gifts/allowances. The same goes for the NZRU and their handling of players like Carter & Williams.

Identification of true weaknesses

SA do have weaknesses in their side. A lack of genuine cover at centre, a real breakthrough of any wings in last 4 years…. All bar Aplon are seasoned vets (despite JP’s age). People rave about Hougaard on the wing but he is a 9 and SA have bags of talent superseding his on the wing. Basson was a revelation last year, Nokwi was blowing past everyone in 08/09 but neither were given real chances to develop as test players.

Bar Frans Steyn covering the position, SA have not replaced Monty at 15 sufficiently. Without Frans the boks tried Aplon, JP, Kirchner, Jantjies, Morne, Lambie & even Ruan Pienaar at 15. Either they were attacking fullbacks with a poor kicking game like Jantjies & Kirchner or they were halfbacks like Morne, Lambie & Ruan.
Joe Pietersen was a genuine 15 at WP 2 years ago but didn’t get his chance to play. He was fast, had a good kicking game and right up to his move to France he was outplaying Aplon week in week out. He realised though after the 09 winter tour where PDV took 50 players and that he wasn’t one of them, he would never get a chance so he left to seek his riches in France. Could he have made the difference, we’ll never know but he certainly deserved to make the squad at the time with many pundits stating their surprise at his exclusion.

Player Fatigue

The problem for PDV is that his 3N form wasn’t good enough to warrant resting his major players during his AI tours so always brought & played his top 30 players. I firmly believe that if SA had lost to ENG after losing to Scot the week before he would have been sacked…. but his reprieve came at a cost, worn out players.

With the expansion of the SR season, 6 3N matches and the gruelling AI tour, the top players having perhaps 2 months off (those who play in European teams, zero) to truly prepare for the forthcoming seasons. It wasn’t enough. Jake White knew this so often brought weaker sides to tour Europe.

Aus & NZ either don’t have domestic competitions or don’t play their top SR players in them…. SA does. The Currie Cup is big and the major players may feature in an additional 6-8 CC games…. It all adds up.

Players like Frans Steyn haven’t had a rest in years and its no surprise he went off injured in this RWC. Ok, it could have been coincidential but just look at it….

Sept – June he plays Top14.
June – Aug he plays test friendlies & 3N matches.
Oct – Nov he plays NH AI series.

Sure he is only 24 but players bodies can only take so many hits etc before breaking.

Overall SA lost this match, this title defence on bad player management & long term strategy IMO, one that was set in place from the very beginning of PDV tenure. Its was not the style of play nor the injuries which occurred. Perhaps they would have lost to Aus even if all the above were addressed but at least the above would have given them a genuine chance of defending their title… rather than a lets just hope & see strategy and hope things go our way. Luck has very rarely brought any team a RWC title so they shouldn’t have placed much of their campaign on it… but that’s history I guess.

Agree there were missed chances for going for goal as well as difficult chances at goal that were missed. With that much possession and such a class kicker, you´d back SA to close out such a game.

PDV won´t be missed but you´d think a new coach might be tempted to throw out some of the veterans now as I got the impression the players were running the ship and a new coach might not like that situation. So farewell Smit, Matfield and Botha for example.

Surely its Rassie's to lose now. Standout candidate.

A player that would build a team around the boks strengths.

I have finally just watched the match,exciting,scrappy,but a lot of poor handling errors by both sides.
Australia[in particular]got away with murder at the breakdowns,lazy runners .lieing over the ball,bodies on the ground sealing off.
Sloppy work by Burger caused the try,basic rugby pass back for someone to kick for touch.
Australia probably had the better of the refs. decisions only one clean break,the disallowed try definitely forward.
Poor play by Matfield for the winning penalty,deliberate foul play Aussie line out was a mess.How many other steals were legal.
A lot of the Bok build ups were poor,sloppy passes to players standing still
no one attempting to run from deep at pace.
Aussie has a Bok in a headlock,that has to be a high tackle,Ashley Cooper
Worlds greatest fly half?he made more mistakes in 5 minutes than Colin Slade has in the whole RWC.
The press crucified him before a dodgy groin laid him low.
PDV staying until December apparently then bring on the real coach.
Highly entertaining match,but a couple of poor decisions instead of attempting goal kicks which for Steyn.
Were far more kickable than the two he missed,at eden park they may have gone over.

biltong

Who would be your choice to coach the bokke now? It must be a pretty sought after job. Would they ever consider a non Saffer?

In fairness I think Australia were very, very lucky to win this one. A couple dodgy forward passes called against SA, Steyn missing a few kickable penalties, Du Preez getting stripped off the ball by Cooper (how?) 5 metres from the line, Australia getting away with lots of high tackles and stealing the ball while off their feet, the list goes on.

Still flummoxed why Hougaard and Du Plessis haven't started more, but even if they had would it have made a difference?

Maybe it was just destined that South Africa were not going to retain the cup. Was still an awesome game to watch, very impressed with the pressure Australia put at the breakdown (when it was legal).

Great post as ever Biltong. Also I think it was a big mistake not to use the Tri-Nations as a testbed for some constructive plays. Yes I know all the players were mysteriously injured at the same time but it was a chance squandered. As I keep reminding my best mate who's a Saffa - at least with PDV's exit there's something positive come from this.

Sounds like Jake White has thrown his hat in the ring for coach - is this a good thing for SA or is it going backwards?

Not sure on Jake. He had a great team to work with in their prime and has been a bit out of it for a while !

Mckay my first choice is Mallet, then John Mitchell, then Rassie Erasmus

Mallett yes, Michell is over-rated and never achieved anywhere of note, Rassie is a little unproven but could be good.

Oxford Welsh,"Mitchell is overated never achieved anywhere of note."
Depends on your definition,England forward coach under Sir Clive Woodwards RWC winning side.
All Blacks coach for 28 matches,won 23,drew1,lost 4 82,1%success rate,palpably better than Jake White or PDV.
Included a 2003 grand slam 3Ns,first two matches back to back put 50 plus
points on Boks and Aus AWAY.
Or do you only rate RWC winning coaches not many of those about are there.?

Having a successful record as a coach of the All Blacks doesn't necessarily make you a good coach.

Even I would have at least a 70% record by sending them on a runs, doing an hour of this or that and saying 'go out and win boys'. As AB coach you get an automatic % of wins by its teams very nature and available resource.

Mitchell obviously has a good enough knowledge of the game to make a successful coach.

His problem lay in his inability to handle all the demands of what it takes to be a coach from a communication point of view.

He was controlling and dictatorial in his style. I have a mate in the upper echelons of the NZRFU (has moved on since) and it is Mitchells conflicting nature, inability to communicate openly and transparently with either the media or his peers- particularly under pressure- lead to his demise- not necessarily just the loss in 2003.

He has not coached in Perth and SA since for no reason.

emack2 wrote:Oxford Welsh,"Mitchell is overated never achieved anywhere of note."
Depends on your definition,England forward coach under Sir Clive Woodwards RWC winning side.
All Blacks coach for 28 matches,won 23,drew1,lost 4 82,1%success rate,palpably better than Jake White or PDV.
Included a 2003 grand slam 3Ns,first two matches back to back put 50 plus
points on Boks and Aus AWAY.
Or do you only rate RWC winning coaches not many of those about are there.?

He left woodward and england in 1999 to coach the all blacks. He was abs coach at the 2003 RWC...

Anyhow read your thoughts, interesting all, but the basic is that Australia are the better side, they have played better rugby than the bok. They have won more competitive games.

This was not a good bok team.

Why South Africa Lost!

That is simple to answer, they was not good enough on the day, to win.

Biltong
Agree with much of your post and IMO it all really comes down to intelligence - which is strange as over the years knowing how to win has been the hallmark of SA teams. Failing to take points on offer, not playing the ref and failing to adapt the plan are not what I expect from SA.

Yes Australia's defence was very good but it's not often that a team wins with such lack of control at half back. They flattered to deceive and will need a big improvement to get past the AB's.

It almost goes without saying that this was also the worst display by the officials at this WC.

The same reason England and Ireland lost - less points than the opposition.

Oxford Welsh

Rassie is a little unproven!

hmmm well he's is known as the best coach in SA and turned the fortunes around for both the Cheetahs & the Stormers.

In both cases he didn't just buy his way out of trouble, he brought in new ideas, put a touch of steel into the defence and took them both to new heights.

He is my choice for coach and by all accounts he is the front runner. White and Mallett already had their days in the sun. We need fresh ideas and a coach who will not have any baggage with SARU.

White will not get the job back. He burnt his bridges with his book expose which heavily criticised both SARU & the govt. (totally justified.. but the governing bodies won't trust him).

Mallett has been out of SA rugby for 10 years. You can't just run back in and expect to be able to run the ship from the off. You need someone who knows today's players, who has a good relationship with them.... Rassie is the obvious choice.

John Mitchell has been on Kia Ora and Matsterplan new Zealand almost every night since the start of the RWC.

He has many qualities I think would fit in with SA rugby.

His dictatorial manner will be of great value to a springbok team, we tend to repect someone who doesn't take nonsense from sub ordinates. It will enhance discipline in the team. He has a wealth of knowledge and has shown an ability to develop players much further even though they should have already been at the peak of their skill and performance.


THe difference he has made to some of the players in the Lions squad is remarkable and having been able to take a Lions team with really no big name players as far as he has in such a short period of time is note worthy.

Rassie Erasmus on the other hand ahs taken a Cheetah team to two currie cup wins within his first two seasons and has made a big impact at the stormers who has now made the super Rugby semi finals in two consecutive years.

Nick Mallet will always be a favorite of mine simply becuase he was the only coach who in the professional era succeeded in getting the Boks to play expansive rugby.

Any of those three coaches will do well as springbok coach, and how I wished John Mitchell would apply.

I'm not a big fan of Mitchell myself.

He hasn't really done anything in SR... his tenure at the Force was average at best and last year he won only 3 games (albeit with a poor side).

Ok the lions have done well in the recent CC but only because they're missing no players to the RWC. WP, Bulls, Sharks & Cheetahs would be far far stronger if they had their top players back.

Anyone would have come into the lions set up and improved it, it was that bad. The players were overweight, unfit and low on morale before he came in... at least he's turning them into a decent outfit whom are playing to their potential...

but if thats enough to take one of the biggest jobs in world rugby I'm not convinced.... not that PDV CV pre 08 was all conquering...but SA deserve better.

True, but remember one thing, John mitchell has no big name players in his squad, they were all anonymous when the season started, the only decent player he had was Jano vermaak and he has left. Every other team has been buying players left right and center and has not developed many themselves, apart from the Cheetahs.

biltongbek

I do agree on that point, as I said earlier he whipped them into shape thats for sure and realised that the current squad wasn't a bad outfit what so ever.
Pre Mitchell it seemed like the lions were forever fielding 15 props on the field. When JW did some analysis for the lions in 09 only 1 player in the entire squad bypassed the ave. fitness levels of SR rugby players.

But for me, I think the boks need a proven winner.... and a saffa to boot. It means more when its your own country at stake.