Floyd Mayweather/Miguel Cotto - Preview And 606v2's Look Ahead and Prediction

Do I think this is a good match up? No. I think this is a great match up. Let's face it you can throw something at Floyd with whoever he fights even if it is "The one". Alvarez being too green. Khan not proving himself at 147. Pacquiao being "past his prime" (Which I disagree with). Guerrero not proving himself at higher weights. I think at the full 154 pounds I really feel as though Cotto has an ok chance with this one. Of course with this one - Cotto there's the "He's past his prime" excuse, which I disagree with I think he is actually still in his prime and at a weight he is most comfortable with. Hard fights with Pacquiao and Margarito are the two fights for everyone to point to, but in my opinion Cotto hasn't really lost a step in speed or power or punch resistance, I also think that now he is actually more mentally stronger. People were pretty split with the Margarito/Cotto rematch and Cotto won every round decisively, for me he really hasn't lost anything.

The main question walking into this fight is can Miguel Cotto win this fight? The answer is, yes. He can win this fight, and he can ask Floyd Mayweather an awful lot of questions, in my opinion.

I've always thought that there are two type of fighters that can beat Floyd, a tall rangy fighter that can use his height to good effect such as the Thomas Hearns' or perhaps Vernon Forrest's of this world, or a bigger and more physically stronger man that can keep up a good pace and utilise good body shots whilst pushing Floyd back, I believe Cotto is the latter, or at the very least capable of it.

The tools for Cotto's possible success:

Now of course I start Floyd as the favourite, but Floyd could easily have a bad night and if Cotto utilises certain tactics pressuring Floyd and landing hard left hooks to the body I could see him cause an awful lot of problems similar to the Jose Luis Castillo fight, Floyd is not easy to hit of course, but left hooks to the body are one of the easiest punches to catch Floyd with and this is Cotto's best punch.

I also believe that Cotto is deceptively fast and the more physically stronger of the two, if he can use his jab to good effect whilst pressuring Floyd and cutting the ring off I believe that he could seriously upset Floyd, the main thing for this is to pick your spots and when Cotto goes after Floyd and want to exert the pressure upon him he fully commit to this and not think about anything else. Once pushed onto the ropes a real combination of body to head attacks is essential, we saw De la Hoya have next to no effect as when he had Floyd pinned on the ropes he decided to only throw to the head or to the body, not mixing it up to keep Floyd guessing, very similar to what Ortiz's main problems were when he had him pinned agaisnt the ropes. This is something Jose Luis Castillo did very well as the body attacks landed and occassionally opened up head attacks.

It will be interesting to see what type of tactics Floyd chooses, most of the time when he has decided to move up in weight and take on a physically strong fighter at the weight he has decided to fight off the back foot, and once he feels he has grown into the weight after a few fights at that weight he is more likely to stand in the pocket, but he gave away a lot of weight against Ortiz and was more aggressive than ever. Floyd choosing to stand in the pocket will make for an exciting first 6 rounds and the fight will be in my opinion decided in the first 6 with whoever is coming out on top the eventual winner of the fight.

The tools for Floyd Mayweather's possible success:

Well what can't Floyd do? Speed, reflexes, boxing smarts, heart and desire to win and never give in, he is close to a perfect fighter really, a complete enigma to truly solve out defensively.

There's an awful lot he can choose to do against Cotto. Generally most people I imagine would believe that he will dictate the pace as usual but as I have already alluded to I do believe it possible for Cotto to push Floyd back and for him to not have the fight his whole way.

I think we will get a better snense of how Floyd will fight when the fight becomes closer as recently he has been very honest about how he is going to fight and pretty much telling his last two opponents what he's going to do to them without them being able to do anything about it. Generally however, I feel there will be 3 different ways Floyd will fight, in the same ways he has always fought in his career.

One way will be fighting more or less on the back foot trying to catch Cotto with his jab and foot movement frustrating Cotto, which is mimmicing what he did mostly in the earlier part of his career at times and agaisnt Baldomir, basically making Cotto feel like Margarito felt in the rematch, just not allowing him to get close.
Another possibility would be a complete turnaround of the first tactic, being aggressive on the front foot and actually being the one trying to push Cotto back in a similar fashion to how he pushed Mosley and ortiz back, trying to take the play away from Cotto without allowing him to set up attacks by using his own offense.
And lastly he could use a mix of the two, just simply picking his spots against Cotto similar to how he fought Marquez, though I'm not sure he will fight this way, because this gives Cotto more opportunities to exert pressure onto him so I would think that Floyd will fight at either one extreme or the other.

The problems for Cotto is that one of the punches that he is generally most open to is the straight right hand, and I think we can all agree that Floyd rather excels with that punch and we could end up seeing Floyd completely utilising this punch to the fullest and making it a tad one sided.

Don't feel embarassed to get excited about this match up because it's not "the one" that just needs to happen. Putting that aside this really is a good matchup, I of course feel Floyd will take this on a decision, but could be in a genuine tussle at some points, something we haven't seen for... A long time let's put it.

So what do you fans feel?

It's a good match up although not a great one but there is only one possible outcome and that's a fairly comfortable Mayweather victory either by points or late stoppage depending on how he feels.

Ha, had a feeling you'd shoot me down Ghosty! Well, we'll see on the night, I expect it to be very competetive and very physical and for once Floyd will be in a proper fight.

I actually agree with you Alex that whilst I definitely think Floyd will win think this will be competitive, believe every fighter no matter how great has a glass celing where the weight definitely becomes an issue and think for Floyd light middle is right on that ceiling. Think he beat DLH more handy than the cards showed he definitely had more trouble than he should have with an ageing DLH and think if Cotto can apply presure intelligently and get close to Floyd he could make it physically quite tough for him.

Weight does at some point become an issue of course but the size difference between the two isn't that big as for strength I would be inclined to give the edge to Mayweather who has never struggled physically with far bigger fighters than Cotto. I could be wrong but the speed difference is too much in this match up especially when it's in favour of the superior boxer.

Must point out the speed difference was much greater between Castillo and Floyd, albeit Floyd had two broken ribs and an injured left shoulder on the first fight even the second fight was very competetive due to intelligent pressure given that the speed advantage isn't as much and at a higher weihg t there is a theory that this could be really tough. Could be wrong, it's a tad up in the air.

Castillo was about 10 years ago now so not sure we can draw too much from that but he was a world class pressure fighter, i've never really seen Cotto as being one. He's a world class boxer/puncher but tends to use his boxing skills to win rather than pressure.

Cotto is no longer a pressure puncher imo, he's more of a boxer now, picks his shots more as he doesn't have the same stamina.

It is a good matchup and except pacquiao, cotto is the biggest seller out there.

The only other matchup is Alvarez. To decide whether mayweather ha adobe the right thing, make a decision on who would win out of cotto and alvarez, I would go with a tight UD or SD for cotto.

Martinez has a fight and is at 160 with little star appeal, Guerrero is coming of an injury with no fights do far at 140, berto is obviously not an option, maidana was booked and khan is coming off a loss.

Mayweather should win easily enough though. Wins vs Margarito and mayor a are alright but both are slower than Miguel and mayweather is a lot quicker than all of them. The size shouldn't mean much as cotto isn't a big light middle and I doubt he will weigh more than Ortiz or de la Hoya come fight night

Nice article Alex, although I'd pick Floyd to win at this stage it's not inconceivable to pick Cotto to cause an upset. It's good a matchup, along with Pacquiaos fight with Bradley, it was possibly the best two opponents without them facing one another.

I'm not sure how the tactics will Pan out, will Cotto fight on the back foot in attempt to prevent him getting countered half to death ? Will Floyd try and impose himself as he has done in his last couple of outings? If Cotto can establish his jab I feel this could go the the wire, Floyd just for closer than many are anticipating.

Cotto is too lazy.......goes to sleep far to often...I imagine it's close for five and then Mayweather takes a unanimous decision...outworking him.

First off - great article, Alex.

I have no problems admitting that I'm certainly looking forward to this one. I'll also add that I have nothing but good things to say about Mayweather travelling back up to 154 lb in search of a genuinely top class assignment in light of the Pacquiao fight not materializing (yet again). As you allude to, Alex, on paper this is a fine match up. In a sense, maybe Floyd and Manny are victims of their own success these days; Floyd moves back up in weight to take on a three-weight world champion with plenty of distinguishing moments behind him, Manny takes on an undefeated and young world champion of almost four years, and yet a good portion of us are having trouble getting excited for at least one of the two fights.

That said, I'd have been a hell of a lot more excited about this fight had it happened back in 2007 / 2008. I have to disagree with one particular sentiment in your article, Alex, because I do feel that Cotto has declined as a fighter, and by a significant amount, too. He'd beat a huge majority of fighters at 154 lb, including a lot of Welterweights stepping up - but not Mayweather. His power, while still considerable, isn't as great at Light-Middleweight and won't be enough to stop Mayweather in his tracks. He's tailor-made for Mayweather's jab, as the Puerto Rican is having increasing trouble stopping straight punches down the shute. And I don't think he throws enough punches these days to have any hope of outworking Mayweather to nick a decision.

Since Margarito I, he's only really stepped up in to the top class once, which was against Pacquiao. We all know what a painful night he endured there. Aside from that, he's been lined up against a few patsies, and I can't help but feel that his lack of real quality opposition over the last three years is going to come back to haunt him here. He just hasn't had the right men facing him lately to prepare him for someone of Mayweather's style and class.

I see an even, competitive and very interesting fight for four rounds. After that, I see a dominant performance for Mayweather in which he has things pretty much on his own terms. Not entirely sure that I see a stoppage unless it's on cuts, as I expect Cotto to fight a more measured fight than we've sometimes seen from him, but by the time the final bell rings I fully expect we'll have seen Mayweather pretty much dominante yet another top class opponent before settling in to the inevitable Mayweather-Pacquiao 'will they, won't they' debacle again, as it'll be even clearer that, with the possible exception of Alvarez, they really are the only two men who can test each other .

My prediction for this would be a comfortable Mayweather win. Wide UD with a decent chance of TKO. Other than the "punchers chance" argument the biggest threat I see to Mayweather is a possible shafting on the cards if he fights defensively.

Mayweather is one of the hardest fighters to predict how they will approach the fight but for me this match up has alot of similarities with the fight Mayweather had with de la Hoya. Both at LMW and up against a bigger aggressive lead southpaw who fights out of the orthodox stance. Plus Mayweather now has the additional experience of having fought at that weight against an opponent who isnt a million miles away in style to Cotto. I thought Mayweather got a bit shafted on the cards in that fight but given it was de la Hoya, I cant see it happening again this time around.

Like many southpaw converts, I think Cotto is a bit of a one handed fighter. The right is pretty weak but he has a very good left, especially the left hook. Defence is the key to Mayweather here as he protects his body very well with his right hand across it and I dont think he has to be to concerned about Cottos right hand which isnt as threatning. My biggest concern is that when Mayweather lets a guy unload on him at the ropes that judges think hes being battered when in reality few shots are breaching his defence.

I suspect Cotto will approach this fight in a similar to fashion to de la Hoya. He going to try and pressure Mayweather and stnd in front of him and try to get in close to attack Mayweathers body with the left hand. I think the de la Hoya fight, and to a lesser extent the Hatton fight showed that Floyd can handle that. And Cotto isnt the best defensively so I think he will be very open to Mayweathers own counter left hook when hes trying to get in close. I could envisage Mayweather having alot of success with that punch.

As I mentioned, Mayweathers approach to fights is hard to predict. I cant see Cotto approaching this any other way than to try and be the aggressor and bully Mayweather. He knows he cant win at distance. I would think that with Mayweathers experience against de la Hoya he would adopt a similar approach of simply blocking, rolling and slipping Cottos pressure, catching him on the way in and countering effectively. He may find things easier with Cotto than he did with de la Hoya so I wouldnt be too surprised to see him take control of the fight early and show more aggression possibly with the aim of getting the stoppage. Cant see Cotto winning on points (other than blind judges) so his only way to win would be a massive left to the head/body and if he does manage that then I still think he gets beat in a rematch.

Although i hope you are right Manos i can see Cotto being to respectful and standing back boxing at long range losing a wide UD. If Cotto really wants to win the fight then he will have to back him up and try to bully him.

The Galveston Giant wrote:Although i hope you are right Manos i can see Cotto being to respectful and standing back boxing at long range losing a wide UD. If Cotto really wants to win the fight then he will have to back him up and try to bully him.

I think he could well end up being forced to box at range if he finds himself inneffective and getting tagged repeatedly and beaten up trying to pressure. He may end up just backing off to avoid a beating as Mayweather takes control. But I think he will be made to force the fight if Mayweather wants it as he just wont have the required speed or footwork to box successfully at a distance. Unless he is resigned to just losing but lasting the distance then I would expect him to have to have a go and impose himself on Mayweather at some point. Its hard to know with Mayweather but I think the blue print is already there to some extent with de la Hoya and given that Mayweather was able to beal with de la Hoyas pressure and land clean punches on him I think he will invite Cotto onto him and look to exploit Cottos leaky defence on the way in with left hooks and counters from the ropes.

manos de piedra wrote:

The Galveston Giant wrote:Although i hope you are right Manos i can see Cotto being to respectful and standing back boxing at long range losing a wide UD. If Cotto really wants to win the fight then he will have to back him up and try to bully him.

I think he could well end up being forced to box at range if he finds himself inneffective and getting tagged repeatedly and beaten up trying to pressure. He may end up just backing off to avoid a beating as Mayweather takes control. But I think he will be made to force the fight if Mayweather wants it as he just wont have the required speed or footwork to box successfully at a distance. Unless he is resigned to just losing but lasting the distance then I would expect him to have to have a go and impose himself on Mayweather at some point. Its hard to know with Mayweather but I think the blue print is already there to some extent with de la Hoya and given that Mayweather was able to beal with de la Hoyas pressure and land clean punches on him I think he will invite Cotto onto him and look to exploit Cottos leaky defence on the way in with left hooks and counters from the ropes.

I hope he just goes for it, he's nothing to lose. He surely knows he can't outbox Mayweather. His bank balance must be doing ok so i have faith in him yet.

The Galveston Giant wrote:

manos de piedra wrote:

The Galveston Giant wrote:Although i hope you are right Manos i can see Cotto being to respectful and standing back boxing at long range losing a wide UD. If Cotto really wants to win the fight then he will have to back him up and try to bully him.

I think he could well end up being forced to box at range if he finds himself inneffective and getting tagged repeatedly and beaten up trying to pressure. He may end up just backing off to avoid a beating as Mayweather takes control. But I think he will be made to force the fight if Mayweather wants it as he just wont have the required speed or footwork to box successfully at a distance. Unless he is resigned to just losing but lasting the distance then I would expect him to have to have a go and impose himself on Mayweather at some point. Its hard to know with Mayweather but I think the blue print is already there to some extent with de la Hoya and given that Mayweather was able to beal with de la Hoyas pressure and land clean punches on him I think he will invite Cotto onto him and look to exploit Cottos leaky defence on the way in with left hooks and counters from the ropes.

I hope he just goes for it, he's nothing to lose. He surely knows he can't outbox Mayweather. His bank balance must be doing ok so i have faith in him yet.

I agree, if nothing else I expect him to give it a go for at least the first 6 rounds. But I dont like his chances.

Aside from a clear Mayweather victory I have no idea how the fight will pan out, after the Mosley fight it's becoming increasingly difficult to predict how he's going to fight.