How Many Scots Will Make The Lions Tour Next Year?

I've always felt Scotland has been very hard done by in recent Lions tours - last year we got 2, which was arguably a bit of a joke. Will the same thing happen this time around? Is it fair to pick very few candidates from a losing team?

Genuine candidates? Bearing in mind we only have the rest of this 6N, summer tours, autumn internationals and another 6N to go:

FR Ross Ford
SR Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist
BR Ross Rennie, Kelly Brown, David Denton, John Beattie?
HB Greig Laidlaw [partly for his versatility]
CR N/A
OB Tim Visser, Stuart Hogg, Max Evans, Chris Paterson

I think we'll get about 4 and they'll be Ford, Gray, a back row (probably Denton or Brown) and Visser. Unfortunately, although it's not the way it *should* necessarily be done, coaches traditionally do not pick Lions from losing teams.

Hogg, Ford, Denton and Gray for me. Some might say the axis of the team - interesting stuff.

more than English?

Ross Ford, Richie Gray and Stuart Hogg will all go. I think that Denton will come close but miss out (and be considered unlucky) in a similar way to Croft being initially overlooked in 2009.

Depends on who is selected to lead the experdition and how many players they choose to take of course. If it follows the Geech style approach then I think it will be those 3 with Denton losing out to Faletau and Heaslip.

Remember it'll be picks for Aussie conditions, and to counter the strengths of Australian rugby. I think Denton might just be looked on favourably with that in mind. Not saying he'll start, but he'd be a great option off the bench later on as a carrier/linker into the currently lightweight but fast Aussie pivots.

Good call miteyironpaw - agree completely (very strange feeling, that..!)

For me:
Ford, Gray, Denton, Rennie, Laidlaw, Visser

I'd back Ford, Gray and Denton to be in the test 22, with Rennie and Laidlaw playing a useful role in the mid-week teams.

Whether Visser starts tests or merely tours will depend entirely on the next twelve months - all very interesting, as he has it all to do, but has a completely clean sheet, and if Scotland happen to score some more tries from this summer, it will be considered (by some, perhaps wrongly) to be down to him.

Is anyone else anticipating Visser, North and Bowe playing on the wings? Could be absolutely brutal.

These threads are going to light up with bile, snot and general vitriol if Visser gets to go.

Not that people really have a leg to stand on with the likes of Flutey having already gone.

I agree that the most likely Scots will be Ford, Gray, Rennie and Denton although it will be strange if Scotland don't have a '9' in the mix. Traditional after all. Visser and Hogg could also make it.

Tragically, Graham Morrison may well be overlooked, as will Rob Dewey.
Chris Paterson and his iron lung will be unlucky not to be included.

Back row will be one of the fiercest areas for competition, Wales and Ireland so strong there.

You would think that these 5 will certainly go:

O'Brien
Heaslip
Ferris
Warburton
Faletau

That leaves Morgan, Haskell, Croft, Wood and the Scotsmen as well, so I wouldn't be so certain that a Scottish back rower would make it!

I'd be starting Gray though, for sure and really rate Ford. Visser might be a good bolter, but back three is also very strong

Graham Morrison, whoever that is, stands a much better chance than Graeme Morrison, is all I can say.

Whoever coaches the lions has a better opportunity of making the tour more inclusive in terms of representation than it has ever been, especially if they are clever with using Scots in mid week games a bit more. Anyway, probable representation would be Wales 35% England 25% Ireland 25% Scotland 15%

Bathite wrote:
You would think that these 5 will certainly go:

O'Brien
Heaslip
Ferris
Warburton
Faletau

so I wouldn't be so certain that a Scottish back rower would make it!

Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

Also, given that it's AUS, I'd take wings of Ashton, North, Visser and not Bowe.

S Lamont anyone?

I'm an Englishman and cannot think of one who would make the cut. I think the following Scotts are going to be pressing hard:

Murray (so long as no Sunday tests)
Gray
Denton
Ford

I think Gray a likely starter. Murray backing up Adam Jones. Denton may well have eclipsed Faletau by then, and a bit of a scrap between him and Heaslip. Ford would be scrapping for a start too.

If the Lions take 6 backrow players I suspect we'll see the following:

6 - Ferris and O'Brien
7 - Warburton and Rennie
8 - Heaslip and Falatau

I think Denton will be the unlucky one to miss out. Heaslip will go as the experienced option and Falatau as the young buck (the fact that Gatland is a likely coach only enhances this).

I do think Rennie has an excellent shot, the Lions shouldn't play Australia (and Pocock) without proper options at openside.

The other Scots I think will tour are Ford and Gray. So that makes 3 in my book.

If Gatlands in charge the back row players could be

Faletau
Warburton
Lydiate
Powell
Shingler
Ryan Jones
Tipuric

KickAndChase wrote:
Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

Really? I'm hoping this is an example of that infamous Scottish humour!

funnyExiledScot wrote:If the Lions take 6 backrow players I suspect we'll see the following:

6 - Ferris and O'Brien
7 - Warburton and Rennie
8 - Heaslip and Falatau

I think Denton will be the unlucky one to miss out. Heaslip will go as the experienced option and Falatau as the young buck (the fact that Gatland is a likely coach only enhances this).

I do think Rennie has an excellent shot, the Lions shouldn't play Australia (and Pocock) without proper options at openside.

The other Scots I think will tour are Ford and Gray. So that makes 3 in my book.

Phew, some sense, thank god for that, I was a touch concerned for a minute or two

It really is a tough old scrap the back row. I named 6 players with one missing out.

Didn't even mention Tom Croft or Dan Lydiate, two excellent players at 6, nor Robshaw or Wood, who may well be playing well enough by next year, with strong summer tours and AIs still to come. Then there's Ryan Jones in excellent form, and Ben Morgan coming through.

Bathite wrote:

KickAndChase wrote:
Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

Really? I'm hoping this is an example of that infamous Scottish humour!

Indeed

Went for 4 :

Ford
Gray
Rennie
Hogg

Possibilities are open for Laidlaw mainly becuase SH is a problem position for the home nations at the moment. Phillips is currently the encumbant player, I don't rate him at all as a scrum half. Sure he is big and physical but his passing is woeful, he get's slow ball and is a bit of an aggrovating character. Laidlaw and Murray I think can challenge for this position.

I also think if Visser can transport his lethal club form to the international stage he is a sure starter. I don't agree with his inclusion though. I had the same issue with Flutey who IMO was a kiwi mercenary. I feel it's unfair that he could claim the spot of a Scottish, Irish, Welsh or English player who has wanted to play for the Lions all their life. I kind of feel the same way about him playing for Scotland but needs must for us in Scotland at the moment, we need finishers.

Should Matt Scott get some game time for Scotland in the SH tour in the summer he might have a chance to solidify that position in the 6N and I reckon will be a differant option to the bish bash bosh of Roberts who at the moment is the likely test starter at 12.

Denton too if he contnues to play like he is at the moment I think would be a better option than Faletau.

So 4 probables and the same again as maybes.

Either way I think Scotland will have the most representatives since 1997.

Denton, Gray, Hogg, Rennie, Brown and Ford I think should all go.

Also:

Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

Apart from Brown, since he hasn't played so far this 6 nations, all those statements are pretty solid. Rennie has been the best 7 so far, Denton has been one of the best 8s, eclipsing Faletau so far. Heaslip had a great game I thought against Wales but he sits behind Denton still.

I guess another way to phrase it and to eradicate bias is to ask (if you're Scottish) ... If all players from the home nations were Scottish, who would you pick to play Australia?

Unfortunately I'm not sure I'd pick anyone but Gray or Visser (and that is CLOSE between Bowe/North/Ashton). Maybe Ford.

Euan Murray playing at scrum half ... are you sure?

KickAndChase wrote:

Bathite wrote:
You would think that these 5 will certainly go:

O'Brien
Heaslip
Ferris
Warburton
Faletau

so I wouldn't be so certain that a Scottish back rower would make it!

Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

I hope your not serious.. None of those are accurate.

Oh I would also have Laidlaw as the bench SH behind Phillips .. by the time 2015 comes Phillips might give way to him and Murray on the bench.

wonder_man wrote:

KickAndChase wrote:

Bathite wrote:
You would think that these 5 will certainly go:

O'Brien
Heaslip
Ferris
Warburton
Faletau

so I wouldn't be so certain that a Scottish back rower would make it!

Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

I hope your not serious.. None of those are accurate.

Was being a bit tongue-in-cheek. However by 2013 those could all be true. Currently the Denton ones aren't far off but 2 games isn't enough to tell you I'm not joking.

wonder_man wrote:

KickAndChase wrote:

Bathite wrote:
You would think that these 5 will certainly go:

O'Brien
Heaslip
Ferris
Warburton
Faletau

so I wouldn't be so certain that a Scottish back rower would make it!

Denton > Faletau (come on)
Denton > Heaslip at the moment
Brown > Ferris
Rennie > Warburton

I hope your not serious.. None of those are accurate.

Ignoring the Brown comparison and going by this 6 nations, how are they not accurate?

When you consider a XV of players who might not make the tour, you really start to see some depth finally in the NH:

1.Corbisiero
2.Hartley
3.Murray
4.Hamilton
5.Davies
6.Lydiate
7.Wood
8.Denton
9.Blair
10.Flood
11.Earls
12.Barritt
13.Joseph
14.Cuthbert
15.Hogg

KickAndChase wrote:Graham Morrison, whoever that is, stands a much better chance than Graeme Morrison, is all I can say.

He's my little brother.

miteyironpaw wrote:Hogg, Ford, Denton and Gray for me. Some might say the axis of the team - interesting stuff.

I would add Rennie

I like Visser and rate hm highly as a winger, definate bias here as a now former (and fatter) winger. However, all the Rabo tries in the world should never get one picked without any International performances. Obviously this is a qualification related issue but unlike an exiled player due to playing abroad or a difference of opinion with a national coach, (but in both instances having previously shown the ability to play Test level rugby against the best) there is no way you can pick Visser ahead of the current wing 3/4 options across the Four Home Nations.

I wonder if the Lions will take an uncapped player this time round. There's usually a rookie in the touring party.

A couple of contenders this time round would be Mullan, May, Joseph and Visser.

Denton has an x-factor about him that puts me in mind of Adam Thompson. It'd find it hard not to have him in the mix, even as a joker in case we were stone walled in defence.

Think how many players were picked for the last lions tour and either got injuried or suspended before the tour left and the others injuried even before the first test.

But what can be said is there are more Scots in the running than the last 2 tours.

Backrow I think will be tough, Denton may miss out, then again an injury or susopension and he will be in.

Visser, depends how he goes at international level, but up against North, Bowe, Aston. but again an injury and he could be starting.

Ford, if injury free will make teh squad, IMO between him and Best who was great at world cup and since.

Grey best chance of a Scottish starter, but could be injuried and miss out.

lets wait till nearer the time, cos all we can say now is Scotland will have more players in contention than have been for a while.

Well based JUST on the 6 nations (so no Brown or Visser) and subject to that form continuing I would have

Ford
Gray
Hamilton
Rennie
Denton
Hogg

To back that up

Ford - to me been the stand out hooker so far - massive running, tackling, perfect throwing in
Gray - Not sure need to say much
Hamilton - may be a bit left field, but our pack has had the best of the two oppositions so far - and he is a HUGE part of that - carries more, grunt and gets around
Rennie - the in form 7 in this 6 nations - strong carries, ripped the ball in tackles and showing great form
Denton - MOM and almost MOM in his second game
Hogg - shown great from on performance

Of course this all depends on the form continuing etc and is based SOLEY on 6 nations form this year - so statistically shakey

Hamilton has been vastly underrated I feel. Good shout for him.

Hamilton is underrated, but I would pick POC, Gray, Charteris, AWJ and Lawes ahead of him.

But with Lawes, AWJ and Charteris out injured, on current form Hamilton is worth a shout.

Its WAY to early to even try and guess who will be going but for me the backrow will be the most hardest area to choose from with some top quality players being left behind.

I think those players that are versatile and can play across the backrow or maybe even move up into 2nd row will have better chance of going, even if they may not actually be the best at the time.

I don't agree Bedfordwelsh. That would suggest players like Ryan Jones, Tom Croft, SOB, Wood and Robshaw would be preferred ahead of specialists like Ferris, Lydiate, Rennie, Warburton and Heaslip.

I don't think versatility will or should be a big factor. You want specialists in specialist positions on a Lions tour.

miteyironpaw wrote:Remember it'll be picks for Aussie conditions, and to counter the strengths of Australian rugby. I think Denton might just be looked on favourably with that in mind. Not saying he'll start, but he'd be a great option off the bench later on as a carrier/linker into the currently lightweight but fast Aussie pivots.

Isn't that also true of his rivals at 8 though? I think just getting on the tour as a back rower this time will be incredible and, with them unlikely to take more than two specialist 8s, one of Heaslip and Faletau would have to miss out for Denton to go.

Gray looks like he'll be an important player for the Lions, though who to play alongside him is a tricky one. Do you go for a lineout specialist or a big lump to hit the rucks? Can Gray run a lineout himself yet?

There are no Sunday games but Murray will still probably miss out because of his stance on training then, and tighthead is strong anyway. Ford is good and will probably go. Visser no-one really knows about yet.

fES,

I agree that the stand out ones such as your Lydiates Ferris' and Warburtons would go but take ben Morgan for instance, he is an out and out No8 where as Faletau can play 6, 7 or 8 so I think player like that would stand better chance.

That area is still going to be the hardest to call IMO.

Yes, I think Gray can run a lineout - in fact he currently runs the lineout for Scotland I think (now that Kellock is benched).

I'd pair him with Charteris personally, and have Lawes on the bench.

Davies and one of AWJ and POC to also tour.

Obviously being welsh I'd be biased but I wouldn't swap warburton for anyone and definately not rennie. Also falateau is an amazing player and will only get better. An absolute powerhouse who gets around the field better than most 7s and is top notch in the breakdown.

bedfordwelsh wrote:fES,

I agree that the stand out ones such as your Lydiates Ferris' and Warburtons would go but take ben Morgan for instance, he is an out and out No8 where as Faletau can play 6, 7 or 8 so I think player like that would stand better chance.

That area is still going to be the hardest to call IMO.

Well if it comes down to a choice of back-up player, then yes, versatility will surely be a handy bonus. Both Denton and Falatau are versatile though, as both can comfortably play 6 and 8. I don't consider Croft versatile - he's only a 6. At international level I don't think he's ever a lock, merely emergency cover.

bedfordwelsh wrote:fES,

I agree that the stand out ones such as your Lydiates Ferris' and Warburtons would go but take ben Morgan for instance, he is an out and out No8 where as Faletau can play 6, 7 or 8 so I think player like that would stand better chance.

That area is still going to be the hardest to call IMO.

I've always though of him as an outstanding 8 who can cover the other two at a pinch. Would you really be comfortable with Faletau playing at 7 for the Lions? I'd imagine that Heaslip and Faletau will be taken as 8s, with Ferris and Warburton as a specialist 6 and 7 respectively, with O'Brien as a versatile option. With those flankers around, if Faletau and Heaslip both go then I'm pretty sure that Denton will not.

That leaves one or two spots for Lydiate, Rennie, Croft, Robshaw etc to fight for.

Another thing to consider is that Gatland (reasonable assumption at this point, I think) will be confident that he can get the best out of Croft, and hard pitches in Australia will suit him. He's also given his two best England performances since the Lions home and away to Australia.

I honestly think Faletau might make a better 7 than anything, given the type of game he plays. Atm he looks like a talented player in the wrong position. I doubt anyone will agree with me, but he just doesn't have the size or the carrying option the other 8s offer. I think he is very skilful, a brilliant link-man and has an exceptional work-rate. But as a hard-yards ball, ball carrying 8? I don't see it really.

Falateau is a very good ball carrier actually. But aside from that he was an excellent 7 in the WC semi after sam went off

For the dragons, he looks a good carrier. Internationally I am yet to see it. He has got knocked back too much for an 8.

Denton and Gray, Lee Jones and Murray would be my inclusions.

Hogg is a kid and has done nothing for Scotland other than 1 near try against Wales and frankly this isn't really good enough to be a Lion.

15 Leigh Halpenny / Rob Kearney
14 Tommy Bowe / Lee Jones
13 J.Davies / BoD
12 Jamie Roberts /
11 George North / Chris Ashton
10 Jonathon Sexton / Rhys Priestland
9 Mike Phillips / Eoin Reddan
8 Denton / Ferris
7 Warburton / Faletau
6 Lydiate / Heaslip
5 Gray / Charteris
4 Poc / AWJ
3 Adam Jones / Euan Murray
2 Rory Best / Matthew Rees
1 Cian Healey / Gethin Jenkins

I'll be honest I'm really struggling for quality centers in the Lions squad at the moment...
England seem to be struggling to have players as well, because there just seem to be better players in Ireland and Wales.

As set out on another thread I predict the centres will be Roberts, JD2, Barritt, Tuilagi and Joseph.

That's a pretty decent bunch in my book. I don't think BOD will make it. I can't see his body lasting that long, and at 13 there is some strong talent coming through, particularly in England (ignore the fact that they are picking Farrell there at the moment, Tuilagi, Joseph and Trinder are the sensible options at 13, and all are extremely good).

Ireland will have one 13 in there I believe. We have some very good options coming through there too.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Ireland will have one 13 in there I believe. We have some very good options coming through there too.

Who do you have in mind? I certainly don't think McFadden will make it, and I see Earls, Bowe and Trimble as wingers.

Spence seems to be stuck at 12 (don't like him there), and I haven't seen much of Cave recently.

The Irish centres don't look great to me at the moment.