Heineken Cup discussion - next season

With this season's Heineken Cup almost over with an All Irish final - Leinster vs Ulster I thought it would be a good time to talk about next season.

Who are you looking to forward seeing? Who do you want to avoid?

The Aviva Premiership sides who have definitely qualified:

Harlequins
Leicester
Saracens
Northampton
Exeter
One of Sale/Bath/Gloucester (Sale are the favourites)


All Pro12 sides bar Dragons.

Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Glasgow
Scarlets
Ulster
Cardiff
Connacht
Treviso
Edinburgh
Some Italian side (replacement of Aironi)

Congratulations to Connacht for qualifying for their 2nd consecutive HC.

Top 14

Toulouse
Clermont
Toulon
Montpellier
Castres
Racing Metro
Stade Francais or Biarritz


European Points for 2012-13 season (as worked out by Jennifer Mcladyboy, well done)


Leinster 38 (40)
Toulouse 27
Munster 23
Biarritz 22 (23)
Cardiff Blues 20
Northampton 20
Clermont 18
Ulster Rugby 17 (19)
Stade Francais 17
Leicester 17
Harlequins 15
Toulon 15 (16)
Edinburgh 12
Ospreys 12
Wasps 12
Bath 10
Perpignan 11
Glasgow 9
Scarlets 9
Brive 8
Saracens 8
Gloucester 7
London Irish 6
Connacht 6
Sale Sharks 5
Bourgoin 5
Treviso 4
Castres 4
Dragons 3
Montpellier 3
Racing Métro 3
Exeter 2
Aironi Rugby (defunct) 2

Projected seeding for next European season - 2012-13 (again credit to Jennifer Mcladyboy).

Tier 1

Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff Blues
Northampton
Clermont

Tier 2

Ulster Rugby
Leicester
Stade Francais
Harlequins
Toulon
Edinburgh

Tier 3

Ospreys
Glasgow
Scarlets
Saracens
Connacht
Sale Sharks

Tier 4

Treviso
Castres
Montpellier
Racing Métro
Exeter
New Itallian team




There are only two sides I wish to avoid - Clermont and Leinster.

The group of death I would like: Munster,Toulon,Saracens,Stade Francais/Biarritz. That would be a cracker.

An easier group:Cardiff,Edinburgh,Saracens,Castres

Thoughts?

Any idea on the seedings for next season?

As a Tigers fan I wouldn't mind a rematch against Ulster, we have unfinished business there plus their fans were a good crack this year. An away trip to Toulon might be interesting if a bit tough ditto the Ospreys with whom we have a great rivalry. Will be happy as long as we avoid Leinster, not bothered by Clermont as we were very much in the game at their place until the two ycs (thanks Rolland!) and beat them at WR. Hopefully next season will be easier on the injuries (sheesh we missed some players this year!) and the development of the younger guys should mean an improvement on this season.

Congratulations to Connacht for qualifying for their 2nd consecutive HC

By virtue of the success of others! There does seem to be progress at Connacht though, anyone heading to the south of Ireland will not get an easy ride, especially if the conditions are bad (just ask Quins).

I know I might have my Welsh tinted glasses on but I geniunely beleive that the Ospreys will take some beating next year, they have a pack that can match any side in Europe and their young backs will have had this season under there belt for experience. Although it is still hard look past Leinster or the usual suspects from France, but I am really optimistic about the Ospreys for next season.

I'm hoping Ulster will go up in the seedings now. We were third seeds in our group this year, which left us with a pretty tough job on our hands to get into the semis.

Would quite like to get Exeter, Racing Metro, Montpellier, Sale- just teams we haven't had a chance to play against in this competition. Always enjoy meeting new teams. Otherwise, the French giants visiting Ravenhill is always a good time; Toulouse, Stade, Clermont bring very colourful and passionate fans with them.

Stade Francais are currently in 7th place in the T14, 2 pts behind Racing. With 2 games to go they are still well in the mix for an automatic HC spot, irrespective of the Amlin final.

I really want Tigers to be competetive next season. While it would be nice to have an "easy" group that can give you a misleading impression.

I think Connacht move up into 3rd seed territory and ulster will be at least 2nd seeds

Sam looking at the erc rankings

I think Leicester will be 2nd tier

I will try and work it out.

Leinster - 28+9/11 - 37/39

Toulouse - 22+5 - 27

Munster - 18+5 - 23

Cardiff - 16+5 - 21

Biarritz -17 +5/6 - 23

Leicester 15+2 - 17

Saints - 18+2 - 20

I will look at the rest in good time.

Standulstermen wrote:I think Connacht move up into 3rd seed territory and ulster will be at least 2nd seeds

Is this is a joke? Connacht the same tier as my side. What the hell?!

Gloucester cannot finish 6th and therefore can't qualify. Bath would need a bonus point win away at Welford Road AND for Sale to get nothing from their home game against Quins. I think that is as unlikely a sequence of events possible so I would say that it is safe to assume that Sale will be playing in the Heineken Cup next season.

Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff Blues
Northampton
Clermont

Ulster Rugby
Leicester
Stade Francais
Harlequins
Toulon
Edinburgh

Ospreys
Glasgow
Scarlets
Saracens
Connacht
Sale Sharks

Treviso
Castres
Montpellier
Racing Métro
Exeter
New Itallian team

These seedings are based on Leinster and Toulon winning the 2 Cups and the league positions not changing in the Top 14 and Jeff. (as you call it here)

If ulster win the HC, or Biarritz win the Amlin, they will be top seeds at the expense of Clermont. If both win then Clermont and Northampton both drop to 2nd seeds, and bottom position of the next tier drop.

Stade Francais will also drop out if Biarritz win the Amlin.

Other changes depend on Bath or Gloucester passing Sale in the Prem. Or Stade passing Racing in the Top 14.

I really want Tigers to be competetive next season. While it would be nice to have an "easy" group that can give you a misleading impression

I don't there's such a thing as an easy group LT. It was made out to be an 'easy' group this year but that certainly didn't pan out did it as our group held half of the semi finalists. Though if we avoid injuries to key players I think we can take on anyone in Europe though I wouldn't mind us bringing in a defence coach to help tighten us up a bit.

Remember this year we only had Flood for 3 games, Youngs only played in 3 and a bit games, no Deacon, no Crane, Tom Youngs missed 4 games, Manu appeared in 2, Allen appeared in 1 and Twelvetrees missed a couple as well. Hopefully next season we'll have better cover for Flood with Ford and Bowden and Deacon and Crane should be back to give us some more go forward in the tight. Forsyth has developed a bit over this season as well so will hopefully help cover centre more next year.

beshocked wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:I think Connacht move up into 3rd seed territory and ulster will be at least 2nd seeds

Is this is a joke? Connacht the same tier as my side. What the hell?!

At least you won't have to travel to the sportsground like Quins.

A few of your numbers are off in the calculations too.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

I really want Tigers to be competetive next season. While it would be nice to have an "easy" group that can give you a misleading impression

I don't there's such a thing as an easy group LT. It was made out to be an 'easy' group this year but that certainly didn't pan out did it as our group held half of the semi finalists. Though if we avoid injuries to key players I think we can take on anyone in Europe though I wouldn't mind us bringing in a defence coach to help tighten us up a bit.

You serious? Can't honestly believe Tigers fans would have seen that as easy. Two of the toughest away trips in Europe! It was a group of death apart from the presence of Aironi.

Stade Francais - 13+4 - 17

Perpignan - 11+0 - 11.

Clermont - 11+7 - 18

Ospreys - 10+2- 12

Bath - 8+2 - 10

Harlequins - 12+3 - 15

Wasps - 10 +2 - 12

London Irish - 4+2 - 6

Ulster - 9+9/11 - 18/20

Saracens -3+5 - 8

More to come later.

Here are the correct numbers with possibles in brackets.

Leinster 38 (40)
Toulouse 27
Munster 23
Biarritz 22 (23)
Cardiff Blues 20
Northampton 20
Clermont 18
Ulster Rugby 17 (19)
Stade Francais 17
Leicester 17
Harlequins 15
Toulon 15 (16)
Edinburgh 12
Ospreys 12
Wasps 12
Bath 10
Perpignan 11
Glasgow 9
Scarlets 9
Brive 8
Saracens 8
Gloucester 7
London Irish 6
Connacht 6
Sale Sharks 5
Bourgoin 5
Treviso 4
Castres 4
Dragons 3
Montpellier 3
Racing Métro 3
Exeter 2
Aironi Rugby (defunct) 2

Jennifer Mclady boy - bloody impressive. Well done.

beshocked wrote:Jennifer Mclady boy - bloody impressive. Well done.

No probs.
It was only because I had a head start on you.

I did them after the Qfs and updated them yesterday.

Do you mind if I add them at the top of the article? Of course I will credit you.

Personally I am hoping Clermont are top seeds so we can avoid them.

Flip side is they would be two incredible games and a great away trip to Clermont.

beshocked wrote:Jennifer Mclady boy - bloody impressive. Well done.

The word you are looking for (according to the lady herself) is nerd!

Quick question about the top seeds. I recall a few seasons ago, there was a requirement for each of the top seeds to be from a different country. But this was before the Itlaian sides joined. It would, of course, be silly for one of the Italian sides to be a top seed at the current time, but has that rule been completely thrown away? And the ERC rankings are the only factor for being a top seed? Just wondering about the criteria. Thanks.

beshocked wrote:Do you mind if I add them at the top of the article? Of course I will credit you.

Not at all. You don't have to credit me. You could double check them at your leisure though. Just in case I focked up.

MrsP wrote:

beshocked wrote:Jennifer Mclady boy - bloody impressive. Well done.

The word you are looking for (according to the lady herself) is nerd!

Feck off you. That was Mickado that said that.

doctor_grey wrote:Quick question about the top seeds. I recall a few seasons ago, there was a requirement for each of the top seeds to be from a different country. But this was before the Itlaian sides joined. It would, of course, be silly for one of the Italian sides to be a top seed at the current time, but has that rule been completely thrown away? And the ERC rankings are the only factor for being a top seed? Just wondering about the criteria. Thanks.

Apart from the fact that the winners are seeded top whether they have enough points or not, yes.
Ulster would be on less points than Northampton and Cardiff (if they won) but would be top seeds.

Standulstermen wrote:I think Connacht move up into 3rd seed territory and ulster will be at least 2nd seeds

Seedings based on last 4 years, so no way Connacht will move up to Tier 3 though Ulster will defo move up to Tier 2

brennomac wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:I think Connacht move up into 3rd seed territory and ulster will be at least 2nd seeds

Seedings based on last 4 years, so no way Connacht will move up to Tier 3 though Ulster will defo move up to Tier 2

Sorry, got that arseways, Connacht might yet move up to Tier 3

As far as I was aware it is a given. Ulster are certainties to move up too.

Ulster are a definite 2nd seed - at least

Connacht are 99% certain to be a 3rd seed

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

MrsP wrote:

beshocked wrote:Jennifer Mclady boy - bloody impressive. Well done.

The word you are looking for (according to the lady herself) is nerd!

Feck off you. That was Mickado that said that.

I'm just raggin cos you got it right and I had several errors!

The European rankings are the biggest joke I have ever seen.

40% of facing either Clermont or Leinster. Not great.

With no disrespect to Cardiff Blues, I think whoever ends up in a group with them as top seeds will delighted! They have pretty much lost their entire squad this year and don't have the cash to replace it with similar quality.

From an Edinburgh perspective, should we be 2nd seeds (deserved after this season IMO) I'd be delighted with:

Cardiff
Edinburgh
Connacht
New Italian team

With the worst being

Leinster
Edinburgh
Saracans
Montpellier

If Cleamount are second tier you could see Leinster, Cleamount, Sarries and Treviso/Monp

That would really suck

Ulster can draw as top seeds; Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton or Cardiff.

Biarritz or Cardiff would suit us just fine thanks!

Ulster can draw as top seeds; Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton or Cardiff.

Biarritz or Cardiff would suit us just fine thanks!

RDW_Scotland wrote: Cardiff
Edinburgh
Connacht
New Italian team

Impossible every group must have 1 French and 1 English team in it

geoff999rugby wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote: Cardiff
Edinburgh
Connacht
New Italian team

Impossible every group must have 1 French and 1 English team in it

Really? That must make the draws a bit complicated!

beshocked wrote:The European rankings are the biggest joke I have ever seen.

40% of facing either Clermont or Leinster. Not great.

We have had this discussion before.

Nothing is perfect but I reckon they are close enough.

Remember they do not measure anyone's opinion of who is a better team, or the bookies odds of who would beat who.

They just measure European performance over the last 4 years nothing else. And by design they cannot be wrong.

I would agree that Connacht are not in Saracens class, but they are a tricky team to play in Galway. I remember Treviso causing a few issues for Sarries at home too. They beat Leinster in the Magners last year!

The fact that a lot of French teams are in tier 4 reflects how seriously they take the HC rather than their quality.

Cardiff in the top seeds is only a joke considering how crap they have gotten in the past year.

Wasps were trading on past rep for a while during their slide too. They are still ranked above teams ahead of them in the prem.

Like I said nothing's perfect.

RDW Scotland that first one is not possible because you need a French side and an English one in there somewhere.

I think the easiest Edinburgh can get is Cardiff,Edinburgh,Sale,Castres.

Edinburgh are guaranteed to avoid Leicester and Quins meaning they get one of Saints,Saracens,Sale or Exeter.

Brendan you couldn't get two English sides. Who do you support?

Respective nationalities cannot be drawn together unless there are 7 teams - e.g. one French side will be drawn with another.

Brendan wrote:can some one do up each tier.

I would like to avoid Exeter and Treviso as 4 tier, Sarries as 3 Tier and not to pushed about second though not sure I want Tigers if they drop down

Scroll up.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

beshocked wrote:The European rankings are the biggest joke I have ever seen.

40% of facing either Clermont or Leinster. Not great.

We have had this discussion before.

Nothing is perfect but I reckon they are close enough.

Remember they do not measure anyone's opinion of who is a better team, or the bookies odds of who would beat who.

They just measure European performance over the last 4 years nothing else. And by design they cannot be wrong.

I would agree that Connacht are not in Saracens class, but they are a tricky team to play in Galway. I remember Treviso causing a few issues for Sarries at home too. They beat Leinster in the Magners last year!

The fact that a lot of French teams are in tier 4 reflects how seriously they take the HC rather than their quality.

Cardiff in the top seeds is only a joke considering how crap they have gotten in the past year.

Wasps were trading on past rep for a while during their slide too. They are still ranked above teams ahead of them in the prem.

Like I said nothing's perfect.

They don't take account opposition strength which is the biggest flaw. My team Saracens got 0 points in the Amlin in 2009/10 when they won 5/6 games - did the double vs Castres and comprehensively beat Toulon at home. In the 2010/11 Saracens had quite possibly the toughest pool ever - they lost all their games but one but when playing arguably the two teams in Europe it doesn't tell the whole story. In 2011/12 a more fair group is given - Saracens top the pool and lose to arguably the 2nd best team in Europe in the quarter finals.

So in the last 3 European seasons we have only lost to Clermont x 3,Leinster x2, Toulon x 1,Racing Metro x 1,Biarritz x1. Toulon have proven themselves to take the European competitions very seriously too.

Why do you think I don't want to play Clermont and Leinster anymore?

Ospreys in tier three. I know that it is right, but they are a tier three side people who are ranked higher will want to avoid.

Ospreys are one of the strongest tier 3 sides to be fair to you LordDowlais. I agree that English sides in particular will want to avoid you.

It's hard to say, because the tierings can still change (Ulster can go up, only one of Biarritz or Stade will be there) but by my calculations Edinburgh come in tier 3 now? Only 12 points for them and Saints can't actually be tier 1 I think

How do saints have 20 points?

Chequeredjersey I am pretty sure Saints will be tier 1 unless Biarritz win.

Edinburgh will just about sneak in because one of Biarritz/Stade Francais will miss out.

It's Ulster vs Clermont for Tier 1.If Ulster win the HC they are tier 1.

I read that Edinburgh need Toulon to win the amlin, or stade to not make it into the top 6, and we'll be in the 2nd tier!

ChequeredJersey wrote:It's hard to say, because the tierings can still change (Ulster can go up, only one of Biarritz or Stade will be there) but by my calculations Edinburgh come in tier 3 now? Only 12 points for them and Saints can't actually be tier 1 I think

Stade and biarritz can both be in if stade pass racing in the top 14.
I think this is the only way embra could drop.
I put the possible permutations in my post above. it's about 6 from the top.

Sorry, my bad. I assumed Saints had some points from 2007-8 to lose but of course they didn't

Saints got 2 points this season for coming 3rd in their pool.

2010/11 they were finalists giving them 9 points.

2009/10 they got 4 points as HC quarter finalists.

2008/9 they won the Amlin - 5 points

20 points

Beshocked I never said two English teams

It was Leinster, Clermont, Sarries and Treviso/Montpellier

I think that it being a local Irish Derby that Ulster might win as anything can happen in the derby

I am a munster fan

I would much rather see tier one and two be called seeded and the other two unseeded and you get two of each in a group. When was the last time the first seeds didn't get in the top 2 other then Tigers due to a freak of nature draw