Heineken Cup discussion - next season

First topic message reminder :

With this season's Heineken Cup almost over with an All Irish final - Leinster vs Ulster I thought it would be a good time to talk about next season.

Who are you looking to forward seeing? Who do you want to avoid?

The Aviva Premiership sides who have definitely qualified:

Harlequins
Leicester
Saracens
Northampton
Exeter
One of Sale/Bath/Gloucester (Sale are the favourites)


All Pro12 sides bar Dragons.

Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Glasgow
Scarlets
Ulster
Cardiff
Connacht
Treviso
Edinburgh
Some Italian side (replacement of Aironi)

Congratulations to Connacht for qualifying for their 2nd consecutive HC.

Top 14

Toulouse
Clermont
Toulon
Montpellier
Castres
Racing Metro
Stade Francais or Biarritz


European Points for 2012-13 season (as worked out by Jennifer Mcladyboy, well done)


Leinster 38 (40)
Toulouse 27
Munster 23
Biarritz 22 (23)
Cardiff Blues 20
Northampton 20
Clermont 18
Ulster Rugby 17 (19)
Stade Francais 17
Leicester 17
Harlequins 15
Toulon 15 (16)
Edinburgh 12
Ospreys 12
Wasps 12
Bath 10
Perpignan 11
Glasgow 9
Scarlets 9
Brive 8
Saracens 8
Gloucester 7
London Irish 6
Connacht 6
Sale Sharks 5
Bourgoin 5
Treviso 4
Castres 4
Dragons 3
Montpellier 3
Racing Métro 3
Exeter 2
Aironi Rugby (defunct) 2

Projected seeding for next European season - 2012-13 (again credit to Jennifer Mcladyboy).

Tier 1

Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff Blues
Northampton
Clermont

Tier 2

Ulster Rugby
Leicester
Stade Francais
Harlequins
Toulon
Edinburgh

Tier 3

Ospreys
Glasgow
Scarlets
Saracens
Connacht
Sale Sharks

Tier 4

Treviso
Castres
Montpellier
Racing Métro
Exeter
New Itallian team




There are only two sides I wish to avoid - Clermont and Leinster.

The group of death I would like: Munster,Toulon,Saracens,Stade Francais/Biarritz. That would be a cracker.

An easier group:Cardiff,Edinburgh,Saracens,Castres

Thoughts?

Yeah I knew they had 18 points plus 2 for this year but assumed they must have had at least 1 point to lose from 2007/8, but that waswhen they came back from relegation

For Quins- Leinster
Quins
Scarlets
Racing Metro

Wow I just thought that if Saints are top tier they will not have to play Toulouse,Leinster,Munster,Clermont,Saracens,Leicester or Harlequins.

Not bad at all for a Saints fan!

Chequeredjersey why do you want Leinster?

Because they are the best and the only way to get better at beating the best is to play them until it becomes normal

This might help answer a few questions:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Rugby_Club_Rankings

andyi wrote:This might help answer a few questions:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Rugby_Club_Rankings

So... The bad news. I didn't need to bother me boll1x working those stats out because someone else did it.

The good news.... I was correct. (or both wiki AND I are the same level of wrongness...wrongosity)

beshocked wrote:

They don't take account opposition strength which is the biggest flaw. My team Saracens got 0 points in the Amlin in 2009/10 when they won 5/6 games - did the double vs Castres and comprehensively beat Toulon at home. In the 2010/11 Saracens had quite possibly the toughest pool ever - they lost all their games but one but when playing arguably the two teams in Europe it doesn't tell the whole story. In 2011/12 a more fair group is given - Saracens top the pool and lose to arguably the 2nd best team in Europe in the quarter finals.

So in the last 3 European seasons we have only lost to Clermont x 3,Leinster x2, Toulon x 1,Racing Metro x 1,Biarritz x1. Toulon have proven themselves to take the European competitions very seriously too.

Why do you think I don't want to play Clermont and Leinster anymore?

They can't take that into account. You get a hard group or you get an easy group, that's life. Swings and roundabouts.

If you are in a hard group it can stand you in good stead when it comes to the knockouts. Have it too easy and you can come unstuck.

AFAIK a team that has won 6 out of 6 pool games has yet to lift the cup.

You can't start loading the seedings based on who had a hard or easy group (subjective enough anyway, and open to interpretation) Them's just the breaks.

As Checks has said above. Hard groups will make you a better team in the long run......which will find it's way into the higher tiers...in the long run.

Leinster learned a hard lesson in 06 after beating Toulouse in Toulouse in the QF we came home to be humiliated by our (at the time) biggest rivals in the Semi.

They went on to lift the cup in some part based on their previous hard lessons at the hand of L....eh at the hand of Back for example.

Hard loss to Northampton by a point on the 2000 final too.

For Blues

Edinburgh (3rd year running)
Sale
Montpellier

Would be ideal, we would still probably fail to top the group as we did this year.

Can I put in a request for Clermont, Ulster and Glasgow pls?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Can I put in a request for Clermont, Ulster and Glasgow pls?

That would be an awesome group. I'll start saving my shekels now, shall I?

wales606 wrote:For Blues

Edinburgh (3rd year running)
Sale
Montpellier

Would be ideal, we would still probably fail to top the group as we did this year.

Finishing 4th out of that lot will be an achievement for Cardiff Blues next season although seeing Richie, Yapp, Andy Powell and Mcleod in action against us would be interesting. Peel too.
Getting our house in order is THE main concern and staying above the Drags in the Rabo of course which will be a close run thing I reckon.

Rava wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Can I put in a request for Clermont, Ulster and Glasgow pls?

That would be an awesome group. I'll start saving my shekels now, shall I?

Asbo, Rava, would prefer

Clermont/Biarritz
Embra
Connacht
Exe

That sounds like fun. Would prefer Biarritz, although not yet certain, since a great town to visit and want to see Exe at Murrayfield.

The rankings are a waste of time. The notion that Cardiff could be a top seed again when they have achieved the total sum of the square root of absolute zero is ridiculous.

Allocate the pools more by country - might even things out a bit.

It would guarantee at least one English team into the quarter-finals, and probably two with Exeter in an easy group.

Only one Irish team could make it through since they'd beat the living bells out of each other and not get a runners up spot.

Likely quarter-finals - 1 Irish, 2 Scottish, 2 English, 2 French, ! Welsh.

Result! Entirely meritocratic.

Pool 1
Leinster
Ulster
Connacht
Munster

Pool 2
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aironi AN Other
Treviso

Pool 3
Leicester
Saracens
Quins
Saints

Pool 4
Northampton
Biarritz
Toulouse
Clermont

Pool 5
Ospreys
Scarlets
Cardiff
Exeter (cos they're near them)

Pool 6
Stade Francais
Toulon
Montpellier
Racing Metro

Pot Hale wrote:The rankings are a waste of time. The notion that Cardiff could be a top seed again when they have achieved the total sum of the square root of absolute zero is ridiculous.

You're right. It is a bit mad this ranking business and Cardiff Blues won't be very good next season either.
There again, what can you do? London Irish were pants and Racing weren't interested in our group this season. Only Edinburgh were up for it and showed their intentions by targeting the HEC and not the Rabo since they are second from bottom in the league.

pot hale,
the whole point of the HC is to play the best teams from around europe.it would be a pointless competition if we just got teams that we already play against in the rabbo in the group stages.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:pot hale,
the whole point of the HC is to play the best teams from around europe.it would be a pointless competition if we just got teams that we already play against in the rabbo in the group stages.

Yes...mmmm....perhaps I should have added that tongue in cheek icon to that section of my post.

Though I'm tempted to add that Leinster would be playing the best teams from around Europe - first in the pool stages and then in quarters - assuming they managed to beat Ulster of course.

Compare this season's pool opposition - Bath, Racing, and Cardiff or Munster, Ulster and Connacht?

but as a leinster fan i want to get teams from england and france in the group stages i dont want to get teams that we already play in the rabbo...thats why i love the HC cause we get to play different teams from around europe u get me?

LeinsterFan4life wrote:but as a leinster fan i want to get teams from england and france in the group stages i dont want to get teams that we already play in the rabbo...thats why i love the HC cause we get to play different teams from around europe u get me?

But, but, but...you said "the whole point of the HC is to play the best teams from around europe". Now you're saying you want to get teams from England.......

Make up your mind. You young whippersnappers are all the same, changing your mind every minute..... u get me?

I'm sure that the match ups and groups will have the fat on them thoroughly chewed up, so i'll keep it pretty simple.

Looking at all the teams i am very excited about next seasons HC, maybe more so than AP. Which would be the first time in years!

Pot Hale wrote:The rankings are a waste of time. The notion that Cardiff could be a top seed again when they have achieved the total sum of the square root of absolute zero is ridiculous.

Allocate the pools more by country - might even things out a bit.

It would guarantee at least one English team into the quarter-finals, and probably two with Exeter in an easy group.

Only one Irish team could make it through since they'd beat the living bells out of each other and not get a runners up spot.

Likely quarter-finals - 1 Irish, 2 Scottish, 2 English, 2 French, ! Welsh.

Result! Entirely meritocratic.

Pool 1
Leinster
Ulster
Connacht
Munster

Pool 2
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aironi AN Other
Treviso

Pool 3
Leicester
Saracens
Quins
Saints

Pool 4
Northampton
Biarritz
Toulouse
Clermont

Pool 5
Ospreys
Scarlets
Cardiff
Exeter (cos they're near them)

Pool 6
Stade Francais
Toulon
Montpellier
Racing Metro

I didn't know that Northampton and Saints were two different teams.

Variety is good though.

You know the rankings are a joke when Cardiff Blues and (to a lesser extent) Northampton Saints are seeded in Tier 1.

Cardiff have made a SF and a QF in the last 4 years.

If a team wants to do better than them they need to get better results - simples.

Blame London Irish and Racing Metro for being so poor this season for the fact Cardiff made the QF's this year.

Equo troiano strangely enough I agree with you about Cardiff.

Both Saints and Cardiff have done pretty well in Europe though.

The positive is that I think most sides would be pleased to get Cardiff as a tier 1 team!

As long as we don't get Leinster or Clermont.....

I would actually love a titanic tussle against Toulouse or Munster.

Yes, I suppose the fact that Cardiff have made it into tier 1 makes it good for the half decent teams that will be drawn against them.

Equo Troiano you put Leicester in most pools and they'll feel confident of topping it.

The real toughest cookies are Leinster and Clermont.

Having had a look at the tiers I'll go:

Cardiff
Leicester Tigers
Connacht
Racing Metro (nice away trip to Paris)

What we'll actually get:

Leinster
Leicester Tigers
Saracens
Montpellier

Sam you can't draw Saracens.

No English team will be drawn together. Thank goodness. I wouldn't particularly want to play Leicester in the HC. The matches are too close to call and nerve wracking.


I expect we'll get Clermont or Leinster.

For Leinster i'd like Stade Francais, Harlequins and Racing Metro.

Seems like every one wants to draw Racing Metro. In a way they could still be the weaker french team out there (specially at home) and travelling to Paris suburbs is probably easier than to Castres.
let's hope they can find some consistency and some sort of effectivness in defense next year. they could surprise a few. a couple of good signing to reinforce an already good pack : Szarzewski, Ducalcon (prop) and Matadigo (Montpelier flanker). Both Chabal and Nallet are off to Lyon.

Right, purely for selfish reasons and because I think I can secure free accommodation on my travels I would like: -

ASM - Mick
Ospreys/Scarlets - Penfro/Glas
Exeter - Asbo

Presuming we are 2nd tier

Cardiff
Ulster
Castres
Sale

Would be good

For Leinster.

I don't fecken care we'll beat yiz all.

OK really?

Stade Francais. (Have a lash at Mick Cheika's new team)
Sale (could be a decent team next year) If they end up in tier 3
It has been years since we had an Italian team So one of them from tier 4

Failing that Exeter for the crack Leaving us with Glasgow or Ospreys from tier 3.

Nah, feck it, we play both all the time. Give me an English team beginning with S from tier 3, and anyone at all from tier 4

I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

Careful LD. Remember the old 606 and the constant "Ospreys, Heineken Cup Winners elect"?

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

If they get a decent group it wouldn't surprise me if they made the semi finals. But with the galactico's gone they're a young team, and usually a young team has to learn to lose before they can win.

tigerleghorn wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

Careful LD. Remember the old 606 and the constant "Ospreys, Heineken Cup Winners elect"?

There's something different about them these day's Tiger, Tandy seems to have instilled some steel into the side, and they have a pack of forwards who can match any side in Europe, and with the young backs having this season under their belts they will know what to expect next season. Also, other than Sarries, the Ospreys will be the tier three side other sides should be looking to avoid, but the more I think of it, other sides will know what to expect from the Sarries, the Ospreys on the other hand will be an unknown entity with a new coach and lots of young eager backs. Ask anyone who as been watching the Rabbo this year, the Ospreys have been making vast improvements whilst shedding some of their big time charlies, they have beaten the Irish provinces both home and away this season as well.

LordDowlais wrote:

tigerleghorn wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

Careful LD. Remember the old 606 and the constant "Ospreys, Heineken Cup Winners elect"?

There's something different about them these day's Tiger, Tandy seems to have instilled some steel into the side, and they have a pack of forwards who can match any side in Europe, and with the young backs having this season under their belts they will know what to expect next season. Also, other than Sarries, the Ospreys will be the tier three side other sides should be looking to avoid, but the more I think of it, other sides will know what to expect from the Sarries, the Ospreys on the other hand will be an unknown entity with a new coach and lots of young eager backs. Ask anyone who as been watching the Rabbo this year, the Ospreys have been making vast improvements whilst shedding some of their big time charlies, they have beaten the Irish provinces both home and away this season as well.

They didn't beat Ulster in Ravenhill...

They beat them at the Liberty though.

LordDowlais wrote:

tigerleghorn wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:I honestly feel that the Ospreys will supprise people in the HC next year.

Careful LD. Remember the old 606 and the constant "Ospreys, Heineken Cup Winners elect"?

There's something different about them these day's Tiger, Tandy seems to have instilled some steel into the side, and they have a pack of forwards who can match any side in Europe, and with the young backs having this season under their belts they will know what to expect next season. Also, other than Sarries, the Ospreys will be the tier three side other sides should be looking to avoid, but the more I think of it, other sides will know what to expect from the Sarries, the Ospreys on the other hand will be an unknown entity with a new coach and lots of young eager backs. Ask anyone who as been watching the Rabbo this year, the Ospreys have been making vast improvements whilst shedding some of their big time charlies, they have beaten the Irish provinces both home and away this season as well.

You are right being an unknown quantity is good. Very true that every other side will know what to expect from Saracens. Simply too predictable.

It all depends on the relative pool strength.

LordDowlais wrote:They beat them at the Liberty though.

But not at Ravenhill so hence not home and away - which was the original claim.

geoff998rugby wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:They beat them at the Liberty though.

But not at Ravenhill so hence not home and away - which was the original claim.

Oh, o.k then, I wasnt going to single out teams, but you seem hell bent on arguing anyway.

Lord Dowlais it will be interesting to see how Ospreys do.

Ospreys will be drawn with one of Quins,Saints,Exeter or Leicester of the English sides.

They cannot be drawn with Cardiff meaning in first seeds they are guaranteed one of Munster,Toulouse,Leinster or Clermont.

I think the weakest group Ospreys could possibly get is Munster,Stade Francais,Ospreys,Exeter.

Or alternatively if Biarritz win the Amlin - Biarritz,Edinburgh,Ospreys,Exeter.

I like the look of your second group the best if I am honest beshocked, but I wouldn't mind Munster or Stade either, it is going to be interesting though, I think the Ospreys could meat either Munster or Leinster in the Rabbo final,if they get there, so we will see just how well they are comming along then.

It's funny that Biarritz could sneak in as a tier 1 side if they win the Amlin. Would make things easier.

Justing insisting on accuracy Lord

o.k

I just hope the blues get a decent team next year, i got tired of the constant friday night games

All over bar the HC and Amlin now. Stade losing to Racing yesterday almost certainly consigns them to 7th.

Biarritz win the amlin and they are in the HC as top seeds. Clermont down to 2nd. Ulster win the HC as well, and Northampton drop also.

Toulon win the Amlin and Stade come in as 2nd seeds. Leinster win the HC as well and Clermont are top seeds.

Toulon and Ulster win. Ulster pass Clermont into top seeds with Stade in 2nd seeds.

Leinster and Biarritz win and both are top seeds with Clermont 2nd.

3rd and 4th seeds are now confirmed.


Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff Blues

Northampton

Clermont

Ulster Rugby

Leicester
Harlequins
Toulon
Edinburgh

Ospreys
Glasgow
Scarlets
Saracens
Connacht
Sale Sharks

Treviso
Castres
Montpellier
Racing Métro
Exeter
Aironi Rugby (or whoever)

Of those confirmed 3rd and 4th sees, Sale and Aironi are the ones I'd want to get for Leinster's group, very impressed by Exeter so would not want them as the 4th seed in our group, also would like to avoid Saracens and Ospreys of the 3rd seeds

I'd like to see

Leinster
Harlequins
Scarlets
Treviso

The Leinster/Harlequins/Scarlets matches would surely be entertaining.