Who's Gained The Most From Rafa's Knee injury?

After the French Open Nadal looked in great form. Having beaten Djokovic three times in a row to many he looked a favourite coming into Wimbledon. Who could stop him? The answer turned out to be his own knees. There has since been lots of talk about draws opening up, opportunities and perhaps a feeling of making hay whilst the sun shines amongst other players. Of course no one would openly express anything but concern and a wish for Rafa's speedy recovery but the truth is many players have gained a lot from Rafa's absence. Who has gained the most?

Roger. Has added to his slam total, regained the number one position and won a shiny silver medal in the Olympics and only had to beat one other member of the top three on the way. He now has a top three clear path to the final in Cincinnati.

Novak. His relatively poor form recently has only included one loss to a top three player. He has been saved from another potentially very difficult match with Rafa so soon after three straight losses in a row. Next time they play Rafa will be returning from a long injury lay off and will have perhaps lost some confidence. He has won Toronto and has a clear path to the final in Cincinnati without having to face a player in the top three.

Andy. Made a Wimbledon final and won the hearts of the British people without having to face a top three player.

With Rafa still questionable for the US Open there is still perhaps more to gain. But who has gained the most?

he looked a favourite coming into Wimbledon. Who could stop him? The answer turned out to be his own knees

Strange. I could swear was Lukas Rosol

Lukas Rosol? Who's he?

hawkeye wrote:Lukas Rosol? Who's he?

The guy wot beat our Rafa!!!

Jeez, has he ever been legitimately beaten? I've lost count of the poor guys woes in the last 12 months!

It may well be tendinitis, tendinosis, whatever keeping Nadal out of OG, Toronto and Cincinnati, but Rosol beat him fair and square on the day! I think most top players feel they were off form when they were beaten - sometimes the other guy just doesn't let them play.

HE, $hit happens. Nadal lost to Rosol.

Nadal's knees are nowhere near as bad as say Paul 'plastic knees' McGrath.

Let's just give credit where it is due. Rosol deserves that. You bang on about the Nadal haters of this world and yet when being disingenuos over what was a stunning victory will only add to negative light that Nadal himself and his supporters are viewed in.

I am not sure that anyone has gained because he was beaten fair and square at Wimbledon and since then he has missed 3 tournaments that others would have been more favoured for anyway.

It's well known that he is vulnerable in early rounds at Wimbledon and he was against someone who was unbelievably hot for 3 out of the 5 sets they played - i.e. just enough for the win.

If he had been taken out for a month from 10 May that would be another story.

All 3 of them have gained. Who has gained the most? Murray and Federer because of Wimbledon. But Rafa's movement was absolutely fine against Rosol. Or that's how it seemed to me.

He was just blasted off court by a guy who had a day where everything he hit painted the lines at 90-100 mph.

Even Nadal said after that he lost to a guy who just had an incredible day. He was loathe to point the finger at an injury as he didn't want to make excuses. It is possible for him to just lose you know.

As others have said Rafa was at Wimbledon and lost in a 5 setter where Rosol played an amazing last set. Therefore no one gained from him being injured at Wimbledon.

So that leaves the Olympics, Toronto and now Cincinnati. The OP conveniently leaves out the fact that Murray beat both Federer (number 1) and Djokovic (number 2) to win at the Olympics, pulled out of Toronto and is the current holder of the Cincinnati title (where he may have to play Djokovic and Federer again if he gets to the later stages). So he can hardly said to have gained anything from Nadal's injury.

It is also worth noting when mentioning Canada and Cincinnati that Rafa has not made a final in either of these events since 2008 (Canada) and I don't think has ever reached the Cincy final. Therefore at present I don't think there has been any real gain for either Federer or Djokovic.

Tennis is losing, all such perceived gains are temporary.

There is, and always will be, a bigger fish, as Qui Gon, would say.

Calder106 wrote:It is also worth noting when mentioning Canada and Cincinnati that Rafa has not made a final in either of these events since 2008 (Canada) and I don't think has ever reached the Cincy final. Therefore at present I don't think there has been any real gain for either Federer or Djokovic.

Nadal has two SFs in 2008-09. He typically does not like fast courts anyway.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=pa&y=0&m=s&e=422#

Roger benefitted, Nadal is Roger's demon I don't think Djokovic worries about playing Nadal that much on an outdoor hardcourt where Roger and his long losing streak to Nadal in 5 set matches would weigh on him in any matchup. So I voted for the Rog.

Probably Murray since I doubt Murray would have got past Nadal if they'd met in the Olympics, in the other tournaments (Canada & Cinci), Nadal isn't a huge factor since he doesn't typically win or get to the final.

luciusmann wrote:Probably Murray since I doubt Murray would have got past Nadal if they'd met in the Olympics, in the other tournaments (Canada & Cinci), Nadal isn't a huge factor since he doesn't typically win or get to the final.

Luciusmann. Going by that logic Federer has also benefitted. With Federer and Djokovic being 1 and 2 in the rankings the only way Nadal and Murray could have met in the Olympics was if both reached the final. That would mean that Federer at best would have got bronze. Even outside of the Olympics they currently (if Nadal was fit) could only meet in finals if all the top 4 were playing.

Whilst Nadal is out Murray will currently be third seed when both Federer and Djokovic play in events. Therefore unless they lose early he has to beat both of them to win tournaments. So I don't really see how this makes it easier for him. Either Federer or Djokovic will draw the 4th seed which at present is Ferrer (just lost to Wawrinka in Cincy) whereas if Nadal was playing one of them would draw him.

Yes, Federer has benefited, I wouldn't disagree on that. I mean when it comes to slams, only one player has ever beaten Fed in more than one slam final: Nadal.

No Nadal certainly increases Fed's chances of making the USO final, from around 50% to 80% in my view (maybe higher if Murray in drawn on Djokovic's side of the draw), Fed's record @ the USO is great, unlike other slams, he's had no tough 5 setters before the finals in years.

There's only one player out of the top 3 (excluding Nadal) who have a proven track record of beating Nadal in slam finals: Djokovic (and even that record has limitations because it doesn't extend to RG). So naturally, the two main beneficies are going to be Murray and Federer since the latter has lost 6 finals to Nadal (only winning 2) and the former having never faced Nadal in a final, has lost to him in most of his slam matches prior to a final.

The only 2 not benefitting from the injury is Rosol, who owns Nadal with 100% win record, and Novak, who has not lost to him on hard court in about 5 attempts.

luciusmann wrote:No Nadal certainly increases Fed's chances of making the USO final, from around 50% to 80% in my view (maybe higher if Murray in drawn on Djokovic's side of the draw), Fed's record @ the USO is great, unlike other slams, he's had no tough 5 setters before the finals in years.

That might be a compelling argument if Nadal had a solid record of beating Federer at any stage of the US Open, IIRC he hasn't. That undercuts the value of the opinion, particularly when Federer is having a pretty good year.

Turron wrote:
That might be a compelling argument if Nadal had a solid record of beating Federer at any stage of the US Open, IIRC he hasn't. That undercuts the value of the opinion, particularly when Federer is having a pretty good year.

They never played each other @ the USO, as I'm sure you know. If they haven't met, then Nadal has no opportunity to beat Federer. Every time they played in recent years at the other 3 slams, Federer's lost and that includes at Wimbledon where Fed has won 7 titles. The last time Fed beat Nadal in a slam was over 5 years ago, at Wimbledon in 2007 and even in a good year like this year, Fed has still lost to Nadal in a slam. I'm a Federer fan myself but I'm not convinced that the USO would necessarily be different. The H2H in slams between the two is 8-2, even if you take out the French Open, it's still 3-2.

The argument is compelling because Fed hasn't shown at any slam in the last 5 years that he can beat Nadal, even on his favoured surface of grass. It could be different @ the USO, or it might not be, we won't know until perhaps next year (if they meet) or we may never know! But what we can be clear on is that Federer has yet another golden opportunity and he should seize it like he did the first @ Wimbledon a month ago.

From another forum...

According to "El País" ( http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2012/08/15/actualidad/1345045933_297181.html ), it's

"una lesión en el tendón rotuliano de la rodilla izquierda"

"Toni Nadal hace unos minutos en @esportsib3tv : "Rafel no está en condiciones y no sabemos cuando lo estará"
Toni Nadal: "Intentaremos llegar a la Davis, pero si no está bien, pues tampoco la jugará"
Toni Nadal en @esportsib3tv : "Pensábamos que se recuperaría antes, pero se está alargando. Tiene una cosa nueva en la rodilla"

laverfan wrote:From another forum...

According to "El País" ( http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2012/08/15/actualidad/1345045933_297181.html ), it's

"una lesión en el tendón rotuliano de la rodilla izquierda"

"Toni Nadal hace unos minutos en @esportsib3tv : "Rafel no está en condiciones y no sabemos cuando lo estará"
Toni Nadal: "Intentaremos llegar a la Davis, pero si no está bien, pues tampoco la jugará"
Toni Nadal en @esportsib3tv : "Pensábamos que se recuperaría antes, pero se está alargando. Tiene una cosa nueva en la rodilla"

Using google translator....

"una lesión en el tendón rotuliano de la rodilla izquierda" - injury to the patellar tendon in his left knee
"Rafel no está en condiciones y no sabemos cuando lo estará" - Rafa is not able to play and doesn't know when he will be back
Toni Nadal: "Intentaremos llegar a la Davis, pero si no está bien, pues tampoco la jugará" - Will attempt to play Davis Cup but if it's not healed he won't
Toni Nadal: "Pensábamos que se recuperaría antes, pero se está alargando. Tiene una cosa nueva en la rodilla" - We thought he would recover soon but he is not (it's lengthening). It is a new thing in the knee.

Murray, followed very closely by Federer.

Murray lost 3 grand slam semi-finals in a row to Nadal last year. I really wanted Murray to extract revenge at a major this year against Nadal (was hoping it would happen at Wimbo - thanks Lukas).

Murray is 2-6 against Nadal in majors, including losing the last4 matches, all SF's. So it would of been nice for Murray to get the change to face Nadal again, especially after the summer he has had.

Federer's record is even worse, I believe he is 2-8 against Nadal in majors, and hasn't beaten him in a grand slam since the 07 Wimbledon final.

Djokovic beat Nadal in 3 straight Grand slam finals, even though he lost the French Open final Djokovic would of been favoured to beat Nadal ona hard court a la last years US Oen final or this years Oz Open final.