The Australian Open Draw...

First topic message reminder :

Is live! Here's a stream: http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/video/live.draw.html

I'll try and stick up the important points as we proceed.

bogbrush wrote:Federer has no chance here, regardless of draw. This court is all about endless rallies, has been ever since they changed it after 2007.

Murray / Djokovic final, almost certain.

Yup

I am going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Djokovic vs Del Potro final with Novak winning in 4 after losing the first set

One of the main things that I think has stopped people doing the whole back-to-back "first" majors is because, especially if the FO is the first one a player wins, there is always a bit of "first major syndrome"and the player never performs well for a few/weeks/rest of career after that and by the time the next major comes up either the motivation or practice is lacking. I think the USO is the best "first" one to win as a player has a few months and the off-season more importantly to recover and reassess their goals for the next season. The AO is also very similar to the USO (minus a rowdy crowd) so if you win the USO, there's no reason why you can't go on and win the AO immediately after.

Is there any table online which shows which shows the percentage of "first" majors win (e.g. 40% of players' first major win is the AO or something)? I think that would make interesting viewing; maybe the AO due to the top players boycotting it for years (John Lloyd in the final!!)

CaledonianCraig wrote:It isn't a statement of fact though as Antonico pointed out. Roger has had a pretty damned impressive record since 2007. I agree with banbrotam that Roger is a strong third favourite and the reason he may struggle to topple Murray or Djokovic is the tough run he would have to get to the semis.

After a long absence I'm posting again (although from Brazil), been a busy last 3 months for me (post USO)!

I'd agree, Fed is a strong third but not sure I'd say his chances are better than that.

His record is good, but his record @ the USO was even better until last year and then he crashed out against Berdych. I still think he'll make the semis and I look forward to a great semi between him and Murray. Question is can he beat Murray who will have his confidence fueled by actually winning the USO. All I can say is that I think Murray is more vunerable @ the Aussie Open than @ the USO because the surface speed is slower but the question is will his improved confidence be enough to see him through against Fed in a potential semi?

I cannot disagree with much of that luciusmann and welcome back. That sums up pretty much my sentiments.

Yey! Jinxing and counterjinxing in full flow. Tennis season must be here!

46 hours until the first ball is hit. 7pm Sunday night for me. Cannot wait

Mixed news from qualifying overnight. James Ward exits in straight sets to a player ranked lower than him whilst Jamie Baker beats Donald Young to qualify for the Australian Open.

OOP! http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/index.html

Hewitt beat Del Potro to win the Kooyong Classic, got a feeling Tipsarevic could be the first major casualty of the tournament

Does Hewitt play Tipsy in the first round?

If so, that is pick em for me at this stage in Hewitt's career.

I think many people may have a sneaky fancy for Hewitt in that matchup which just goes to show what a fantastic player he was when fit.

I have read somewhere that Hewitt who has been hindered by a long-term heel injury underwent successful surgery and Leyton feels refreshed and like he has a new lease of life playing without pain. He could cause a few upsets in Melbourne.

Mmm.. that's interesting Craig.

Unfortunately Hewitt has lost that great movement that he used to have.

However he is still an exceptional point constructor.

I'll be following his progress with interest.



emancipator

Jamie Baker qualifies by beating Donald Young and will play Rosol in the first round.

A chance for Baker to conclusively silence the doubters and prove that he is a better tennis player than Nadal?

How tired will he be after playing (and beating!!) a lot of top players this week? I reckon it's 50-50 between him and Tipsy, which is saying something about Hewitt considering Tipsy is the 8th seed. Put it this way; he's beaten Berdych and Del Potro who are better than Tipsy.

djlovesyou wrote:Jamie Baker qualifies by beating Donald Young and will play Rosol in the first round.

A chance for Baker to conclusively silence the doubters and prove that he is a better tennis player than Nadal?

Donald Young Just

CaledonianCraig wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote: Surely, that rules Andy out much more than it does Federer?

Personally I don't think it is that relevant.

Federer and Nadal both won their first slam when they were young, Murray is peak now.

Just showing how stats/past history and other stuff can be used however you want to relieve the pressure/expectation/anticipation on your favourite player and then if he wins you can use those amazing things against him to make the achievement even better.

Don't think my ones using stats or history as you suggest. The only people being pessimistic are Fed fans, based on this draw, his age today, and the conditions today.

I think you've slipped into trying to go t1t for tat and misinterpreted the arguments.

Hewitt beat Berdy 63 62 and DP 61 64. Ok, it's only an exho but he is clearly in superb form. Tipsy is a very tough first round for him though.

Hello Murdoch, I can see you.



emancipator

Yes bogbrush but I think a mountain is being made out of the draw to be honest. I mean can you see him being beaten by Paire? No. Davydenko has never really posed Fed any worries in the past and he is no spring chicken himself. Tomic is one of those youngsters without talent if you read the other thread so GOAT should be fine. Raonic I sincerely doubt he will make the 4th Round and even if he does Murray beat him in straights in the US Open so why should Fed be in a panic. The quarters it starts to get tricky with Tsonga but the Frenchman always strikes me as just too erratic. Brilliant at times and error laden at other times. The semi would be against Murray and Federer will be bookmakers favourite I feel so you see it is not quite the doom and gloom that is being painted. Remember we had the age thing last year and guess what? Fed won Wimbledon. By your own admission bogbrush the court was slowed in 2007 and yet Fed's record since then down under has been only bettered bt Djokovic.

It is a tough draw for Fed - but that's the 'luck of it'. I agree that it would not have caused his supporters any fears if he was four years younger, but anno domini catches up with all players and it is the cumulative effect of, potentially, tough match after tough match when he does not recover quite as quickly as he did even two years ago.

I don't think it is gloom and doom, just people being pragmatic when assessing the odds.

emancipator wrote:Hello Murdoch, I can see you.



emancipator

Hello Emancipator. But I'm afraid I'm completely missing the reference! Where did you see me? I hope I wasn't doing anything inappropriate.

With my special emancipator powers I can see all the posters online



emancipator

Here's a bit of light-hearted humour. The conversation bit isn't that funny but the bits below it I found rather fun.

http://tenngrand.com/2013/01/11/facebook-chat-players-discuss-the-australian-open-draw/

The Special Juan wrote:Here's a bit of light-hearted humour. The conversation bit isn't that funny but the bits below it I found rather fun.

http://tenngrand.com/2013/01/11/facebook-chat-players-discuss-the-australian-open-draw/

Love it TSJ.

The Special Juan wrote:Here's a bit of light-hearted humour. The conversation bit isn't that funny but the bits below it I found rather fun.

http://tenngrand.com/2013/01/11/facebook-chat-players-discuss-the-australian-open-draw/

Excellent!

Looking forward to see how Jamie Baker does against the moonball-killing specialist Lukas Rosol.