Federer draw opportunity

1st round is nothing to worry about, but from here on the book says its Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic, Tsonga, Murray and Djokovic.

If he were to go through that can anyone recall a tougher Slam?

Could be a big opportunity, but he'll need an effective short point strategy on this pudding of a court.

Speaking of puddings, that is a cupcake

When you consider he is widely considered to be the GOAT then yes it is a cupcake draw to be honest.

It's a toughie alright.

Early rounds aren't too bad. He'll deal with Davydenko no problem, Tomic (if he gets that far) would be dealt with comfortably too. I don't expect to see Raonic in the 4th round but, if he makes it, Fed is usually very effective against big servers (especially one like Raonic with not much else to their game).

Then it gets tough. Tsonga is streaky but can he streak long enough to take three sets off Fed? Maybe but I'd still fancy Fed to win.

Murray then Djokovic? Phew. I actually think that combination, BO5, on a slow hard court is just about the toughest challenge you can currently put together on the tour. They account for the last 4 HC slams! I'd go as far as to say that even peak Fed would consider it tough. I see 31 year old Fed as capable of beating either but beating both in succession strikes me as a bridge too far.

You're right about the short point strategy but is such strategy even possible in an evening match on the RL court?

Well that's the question! He absolutely can't do it on legs, that would be stupid.

I suspect he cannot get through that draw and will need people to fall before meeting him.

The biggest factor would be the weather. Not just the rain, but also the heat. If mother nature decides to give Roger some love, then maybe if the roofs come into play could well work in Roger's favour.

No bones about it, it's a pig of a draw. I don't see Davy or Tomic as genuine threats to his chances. Raonic seems to be in a strange place at the moment and I don't think he has the game to cause Roger many problems. QF's have certainly proved to be the make or break for Roger and his Slam chances. When you look in recent memory with defeats to Soderling, Berdych, Tsonga, Berdych which indicates that if the big hitters find inspired form that they could take out an below-par or weary Federer. Against Murray in a Slam he might just fancy his chances given the H2H in Slams.

It is a tall order. He done it last year at Wimby, so why not again.

It's probability that hurts more than the be-off matches, or compound probability to be more precise.

You're right though lk, some weather love (which he got at Wimbledon) would help. Otherwise I think a semi might be the limit of things.

But, you never know. Maybe Berdy and Del Potro can mess things up.

I can't imagine he will do much running if he gets Raonic, Davydenkos fitness was a problem the best of times now I can't see him taking 3 tough sets off Roger. Even Tsonga with both of them liking to one, two punch the points will be very short so not too much energy there if he wins. I think his biggest issue would be obviously Murray and then Djokovic, where he could have 2 potential 5 setters

bogbrush wrote:1st round is nothing to worry about, but from here on the book says its Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic, Tsonga, Murray and Djokovic.

If he were to go through that can anyone recall a tougher Slam?

Could be a big opportunity, but he'll need an effective short point strategy on this pudding of a court.

Sorry bogbrush but I have to disagree with you. Paire was a good draw (wished Murray had drawn him instead), Davydenko has never been a problem for Fed, why your panic over Tomic and Raonic as you have been the most vociferous about the severe lack of talent coming through including these two? In the quarters Tsonga possibly awaits but alternatively Murray has a slam winner Del Potro at the same stage. The semi - well us Murray fans keep getting told how Fed has never lost to Andy in a slam so it is Murray fans who have greater cause for concern and you'd only expect the world No.1 to be waiting in the final. So in my opinion it is no more tricky than Murray or Djokovic have had in recent times and you must remember Fed is regarded as GOAT so he is best equipped for any challenges that await.

CaledonianCraig wrote:When you consider he is widely considered to be the GOAT then yes it is a cupcake draw to be honest.

What a stupid thing to say. Really you should try taking your Murray blinkers off every now and then.

A tough draw is a tough draw regardless of who you're supposed to be. Furthermore, Federer may be considered to be the GOAT in most people's eyes but he is a GOAT who is 6-7 years past his peak. This is a difficult draw not necessarily because each opponent is unbeatable rather because of the cumulative effect of tough matches.

Basically the draw Gods have favoured the Screech. Not only is his quarter a cup cake but virtually all the dangerous players are also in the other half.

Whoa a mo it isn't me trying to enhance their players achievements by exaggerating a draw. It is a tricky draw but no more difficult than any of the other top players have had in recent times. And Fed six or seven years past his peak? Oh please you are having a giraffe surely?

Davydenko is that tough? For Fed certainly not.

Tomic is that tough? Well read the vast majority on the youngsters thread and he isn't spoken about in glowing terms so why the panic?

Raonic is like Tomic. Slated in that youngsters thread snd if a mere mortal like Murray can beat Raonic in straight sets (US Open ) then surely god with a racket can.

Tsonga will be tricky but not a slam winner like Del Potro and renowned as erratic.

Murray - well Fed fans are very fond of telling us that Fed has never lost to Murray in a slam so surely this is a piece of cake? No?

Djokovic - well surely you'd expect a world No.1 to be potential finalist in any slam?

Basically, all I am saying is that it is a tricky draw but is it really sny tougher than I've seen the other top players get in recent slams? No. So why is such a fuss being made? Regardless of draw you just have to make the best of it.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Whoa a mo it isn't me trying to enhance their players achievements by exaggerating a draw. It is a tricky draw but no more difficult than any of the other top players have had in recent times. And Fed six or seven years past his peak? Oh please you are having a giraffe surely?

Davydenko is that tough? For Fed certainly not.

Tomic is that tough? Well read the vast majority on the youngsters thread and he isn't spoken about in glowing terms so why the panic?

Raonic is like Tomic. Slated in that youngsters thread snd if a mere mortal like Murray can beat Raonic in straight sets (US Open ) then surely god with a racket can.

Tsonga will be tricky but not a slam winner like Del Potro and renowned as erratic.

Murray - well Fed fans are very fond of telling us that Fed has never lost to Murray in a slam so surely this is a piece of cake? No?

Djokovic - well surely you'd expect a world No.1 to be potential finalist in any slam?

It's a relatively hard draw for Roger, but in reality you expect him to make the semi-finals with dropping max 2-3 sets.

Yes the bottom line is you'd expect him to reach the semis and the same can be said of Murray and Djokovic. However, surely the semi draw is tougher for Murray than Federer as we keep hearing how Andy has never beaten Fed in a slam but do you hear Murray fans here bleating? No.

Good question BB,

Would love to see Del Boy lift it who in my view has a much more tougher draw than Fed, outside Del Boy would love to see fed lift it but don't think so that will happen.

While Fed has the talent I like other don't think he has it in his legs to outlast his main rivals.

The only way Fed can even come remotely close is if there is an opening with a surprise knockout of the top seeds, specifically Djoko in quarters by Berdych. Murray certainly won't have it easy against Del Po eventhough he starts a heavy favorite.

Eventhough would love to see Fed go far in the tournament in my view might go down before semi's.

Oh we are back to the legs story. Hmm seem to recall hearing this a few months ago and guess what? Federer won Wimbledon.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Oh we are back to the legs story. Hmm seem to recall hearing this a few months ago and guess what? Federer won Wimbledon.

Well would love to see your enthusiasm of Murray when he is 32, I hope he would be playing by then even if can't be a contender.

The thing is that just shows what myths are created about Federer. He is still fit enough - if he ain't he shouldn't be on court. He proved how fit he is by winning Wimbledon despite mistruths of him being a spent force. If he himself felt that I am sure he'd have hung up his racket a long time ago.

CaledonianCraig wrote:The thing is that just shows what myths are created about Federer. He is still fit enough - if he ain't he shouldn't be on court. He proved how fit he is by winning Wimbledon despite mistruths of him being a spent force. If he himself felt that I am sure he'd have hung up his racket a long time ago.

Well nobody says he is not fit enough but to expect him to prove in AO 2013 at close to age 32 is rubbish, while he has the talent to outclass his rivals he don't have it in legs to outlast his rivals. Wimbledon is his favourite surface and not many can play at grass like he can do, Murray in my view is the closest to his level in current day grass and he rightly proved that in Olympics.

In AO, Djoko and Murray will start as favourite ahead of Fed, I would be pleasantly surprised if Fed can do a magic here by winning the trophy, would love to see a miracle happen but I know Miracles don't happen time and again. Lets put it this way if Djoko and Andy can't win at this age against this Fed its not Fed's mistake .

I seriously think its Andy's trophy if he can over come my hero Del Boy in quarters pretty easily, if he gonna get knackered ion quarters and meet a fresh Fed in semi's then I am sorry for you as Djoko will lift hat trick of trophies.

CaledonianCraig wrote:The thing is that just shows what myths are created about Federer. He is still fit enough - if he ain't he shouldn't be on court. He proved how fit he is by winning Wimbledon despite mistruths of him being a spent force. If he himself felt that I am sure he'd have hung up his racket a long time ago.

To add further everybody knows Hewitt is not a contender any more, but he never hangs up, and between who are we to ask him to hang up, the same criteria applies to Fed as well, he is playing the game coz he loves taming the young bulls even at this age, but to ask him to tame them every time would be utter silly.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Basically, all I am saying is that it is a tricky draw but is it really sny tougher than I've seen the other top players get in recent slams? No. So why is such a fuss being made? Regardless of draw you just have to make the best of it.

Out of all the top three players in this tournament, Federer has undoubtedly got the toughest draw. And, despite the fact he is still likely to get to the semis, there are a few big names in there that could cause trouble. I don't see why that shouldn't be a talking point. It would be different if people were using this as an attempt to get their excuses in early for Federer, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Of course, a few potentially tough early matches may be what he needs to fine tune his game for a big second weekend.

Well said FMKK and welcome to the boards

Thanks.

You can make a pretty good case that Andy has the toughest draw of anyone. His potential QF/SF/F sequence of Del Potro (6) / Fed (2) / Djokovic (1) couldn't really be any tougher.

I think the difference in perception is that if Andy faces a grinding 5 setter in the QF or SF, you get the impression he could still arrive in the final in top physical condition. At 31 though, there are doubts that the same could be said of Federer.

Again HMM put forward the same view point better.

FMKK wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Basically, all I am saying is that it is a tricky draw but is it really sny tougher than I've seen the other top players get in recent slams? No. So why is such a fuss being made? Regardless of draw you just have to make the best of it.

Out of all the top three players in this tournament, Federer has undoubtedly got the toughest draw. And, despite the fact he is still likely to get to the semis, there are a few big names in there that could cause trouble. I don't see why that shouldn't be a talking point. It would be different if people were using this as an attempt to get their excuses in early for Federer, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Of course, a few potentially tough early matches may be what he needs to fine tune his game for a big second weekend.

Welcome to the forum FMKK. I am not denying he has the toughest draw however the OP is painting it as something much worse asking if anyone can recall a tougher slam (as in draw I am presuming) and that is just going way over the top. As you say he is most likely to get to the semis (so can't be so tough). Yes there are a few tough players in there but all players I'd firmly expect Fed to handle until the quarters and frankly I'd sooner have Fed's opponent than Murray's (Del Potro a slam winner). Well it seems to me like an excuse otherwise why has it already been discussed on the draw thread and then reposted here. My point being I have seen tough draws for Murray but you grit your teeth and bare it. Not sure but perhaps the opinion how tough a draw this is for Federer is a roundabout way of his fans admitting how well Djokovic and Murray are now playing that they deem their player to have next to little chance of success.

HM Murdoch wrote:You can make a pretty good case that Andy has the toughest draw of anyone. His potential QF/SF/F sequence of Del Potro (6) / Fed (2) / Djokovic (1) couldn't really be any tougher.

I think the difference in perception is that if Andy faces a grinding 5 setter in the QF or SF, you get the impression he could still arrive in the final in top physical condition. At 31 though, there are doubts that the same could be said of Federer.

Agreed on your first point. As for 31 being used here well you could argue similarly in the past when Fed has benefitted for his youth over an ageing veteran in slams. Old age happens to every player and that includes Murray so what is the point moaning about it? I don't see any point myself.

Rogers potential draw is a toughie, can't argue with that... But whenever Murray has got a really tough draw it never seems to work out that way. 1 or 2 of them always fell before they met. I bet that's the case here too.

Tougher draws can work in your favour of course. Andy was on court over 5 hours longer than Novak before the US open final, and maybe those challenges are what got Andy through the bigger points to win the title.

Certainly Novak has the more straight forward challenge of the three as it stands. It would be quite a surprise if he wasn't in the final.

As for tough draws then Murray's Wimbledon route to the Final was far tougher:-

Round 1 Davydenko

Round 2 Karlovic

Round 3 Baghdatis

Round 4 Cilic

Quarters Ferrer

Semis Tsonga

Final Federer

emancipator wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:When you consider he is widely considered to be the GOAT then yes it is a cupcake draw to be honest.

What a stupid thing to say. Really you should try taking your Murray blinkers off every now and then.

CC has a point. One minute, we're getting told that he's the GOAT and the opposition more or less doesn't matter. See some of the comments after Wimbledon

Now apparently, he's going to have problems against a player he has beaten at least 90% of at least a dozen meetings and suddenly Tomic and Raonic (who still both have to reach a Masters SF) are big dangers

His draw is marginally more difficult than Murray's. Yes it's tougher up to the quarters. But I'd take Joe instead of any of the other quarter-final seeds any time of the day

[quote="invisiblecoolers"]

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well would love to see your enthusiasm of Murray when he is 32, I hope he would be playing by then even if can't be a contender

Of course this is true. Because you can predict the future

CaledonianCraig wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:You can make a pretty good case that Andy has the toughest draw of anyone. His potential QF/SF/F sequence of Del Potro (6) / Fed (2) / Djokovic (1) couldn't really be any tougher.

I think the difference in perception is that if Andy faces a grinding 5 setter in the QF or SF, you get the impression he could still arrive in the final in top physical condition. At 31 though, there are doubts that the same could be said of Federer.

Agreed on your first point. As for 31 being used here well you could argue similarly in the past when Fed has benefitted for his youth over an ageing veteran in slams. Old age happens to every player and that includes Murray so what is the point moaning about it? I don't see any point myself.

No, you're right, I'm just trying to account for the fact that the world #2 is seemingly rated much lower than the world #3!

In fairness to BB's OP though, he asked if anyone can think of a player who has been through a tougher sequence of matches than those proposed to win a slam and I don't think I can. But that's because slams don't often unfold totally in line with the seedings, so we'll have to see what happens!

CaledonianCraig wrote:As for tough draws then Murray's Wimbledon route to the Final was far tougher:-

Round 1 Davydenko

Round 2 Karlovic

Round 3 Baghdatis

Round 4 Cilic

Quarters Ferrer

Semis Tsonga

Final Federer

CC you are starting to ridiculate yourself with this post

IMO Fed's route @AO (IF it does turn out to be the hardest draw possible) would be harder than Murray's route in Wimbledon 2012.
That is an if of course, his opponents could lose before they play Roger.

Nonetheless I still firmly believe that for top players who are trying to win a slam, they look to the latter stages to see where the biggest threats are in reality. Of course there can be exceptions (Rosol), but really that's very rare. The toughest matches come at the end.
Getting Murray rather than Ferrer in the SF was unlucky. Tsonga imo is easier than Berdych/ Del Potro.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:As for tough draws then Murray's Wimbledon route to the Final was far tougher:-

Round 1 Davydenko

Round 2 Karlovic

Round 3 Baghdatis

Round 4 Cilic

Quarters Ferrer

Semis Tsonga

Final Federer

CC you are starting to ridiculate yourself with this post

Am I?

Davydenko in Round One (the same player Fed fans are including as part of a tough run here but a Round later). Fed had Paire who offered little.

Karlovic a renowned server one of the biggest around and magnified on grass. Davydenko for Federer in Round Two

Baghdatis - okay always flatters to deceive but guaranteed to fight to the end whereas Fed here has Tomic - a player hardly rated at all on the youngsters thread on this forum whose work ethic was questioned.

Cilic - a fairly consistent big hitter and has a slam semi to his name. Fed has Raonic here who is another ridiculed on the youngsters thread on this forum.

Ferrer - Guarenteed to make you work your socks off and very consistent to a certain level. Tsonga for Federer here who is the more talented but is not as consistent as Ferrer.

Tsonga - as I said has the talent but lacks consistency. Federer will play Murray (if they both reach that point) so agreed Fed has it tougher there.

Federer - Renowned as perhaps the greatest grass court player of all-time so you can't get tougher than that. Federer would play Djokovic who is top notch in Melbourne but not to the degree Fed is at Wimbledon yet.

So you see apart from the semi I'd say Murray has the tougher run of battle-hardened opponents and even Fed fans have spent long nights berating Tomic and Raonic on here.

If you tout that as a competition for Murray, then I am sorry you will never see a legacy left for Murray.

All draws are cupcakes

Sorry ic but the majority fans have already spent their time slating both Tomic and Raonic on the youngsters thread so how can they then be deemed as tough? After all Murray beat Raonic in straight sets in New York so surely the same can be expected from Roger. So who else do you call tough in Fed's draw? Tsonga? Perhaps but give me him over Del Potro or Berdych anytime. Murray? But come on Fed fans have drilled home that Fed always beats Murray in slams so surely in their eyes if they truly believe in what they are saying then the semi should hold no fears and so leaves only Djokovic.

No body is afraid of any draw CC, to be frank I am a bigger fan of Murray than Nole and I see Murray as a bigger challenge for Fed than Djoko, Fed on his days have taken Djoko to cleaners I don't remember such acts against Murray.

On the other hand you have to understand at close to age 32 it will be very difficult for Fed to over come this draw, I see it as a miracle for Fed to win this draw at this age, it would have been a walk in the park on his prime certainly not now.

I don't think so Murray will be even achieve 50% of Fed's success when he is 31 and 32 and expecting Fed to out last all these youngsters at this age every time is meaning less.

Fed stated clearly he is playing the game coz he is enjoying the game and not for records and however he would take all the records that come his way. Fed out performed his older colleagues as well as his younger colleagues , lets see how Murray out performs older colleagues and in the future how he out performs his younger challenges when he is old.

Yes I have heard all this before around six months ago at Wimbledon and Federer won there so evidently the age thing is being blown up out of proportion. I say this as I have seen players older than Fed still win slams so I am not ready to write him off yet. You may want to portray it as a miracle if Fed wins but I'd shrug my shoulders and say: 'That is why he is seen as the GOAT'.

As for how Murray will get on in similar circumstances - is that really relevant? I know this much I won't be here bemoaning old age as debilitating him as I realise that what goes around comes around just like Fed has filled his boots when older players were in the twilight of their career. It does in no way negate his or any other players achievement. Everyone gets old and so I see no point in making an issue of it.

SO CC do you mean to say Murray will hit the heights of Fed at 31-32? beating the hell out of youngsters? or Murray just not good enough as you have seen other star perform in the twilight of their career.

It's a tough draw but he's capable in the early rounds. He could do with someone doing a Rosol on Murray and/or Djokovic though.

Christ Craig, you're like a nervous cat on a hot roof when it comes to Federer. You're trademark is this stupid idea that because Federer is the GOAT everything must be defined as easy for him (winning Slams in his 30's, getting though this draw). You're so insincere, but since you lack skill in concealing it, you just end up looking a bit foolish.

Fact is that for a guy in his 32nd year that's a beast of a draw, let alone for a guy at his peak. With Federer a good 5-6 years past his best its clearly very hard. Probably too hard, at least certainly on this surface I suspect.

Still, would be interesting to see how he tries to approach it, especially how he will shorten points if he gets to the end stages.

I'm not sure exactly what CaledonianCraig is trying to argue here. Is he saying that Federer's draw isn't difficult? Is he saying that difficult draws do not exist for Roger? Is he arguing that age isn't a factor for Federer? Are you arguing that Tomic and Raonic cannot be considered tough opponents because people have had a go at them on a forum? Or are you just arguing?

Nope I am saying it is not as portrayed - the toughest draw as claimed in the original post. Tricky? I haven't debated that but just not as tough as people are painting it. I mean come on I don't see anyone doubting Fed will reach the semis? Why not if it is such a tough draw? Seems to say my argument holds some water.

FMKK wrote:I'm not sure exactly what CaledonianCraig is trying to argue here. Is he saying that Federer's draw isn't difficult? Is he saying that difficult draws do not exist for Roger? Is he arguing that age isn't a factor for Federer? Are you arguing that Tomic and Raonic cannot be considered tough opponents because people have had a go at them on a forum? Or are you just arguing?

Well you know the answer FMKK

It Must Be Love wrote:IMO Fed's route @AO (IF it does turn out to be the hardest draw possible) would be harder than Murray's route in Wimbledon 2012.
That is an if of course, his opponents could lose before they play Roger.

Nonetheless I still firmly believe that for top players who are trying to win a slam, they look to the latter stages to see where the biggest threats are in reality. Of course there can be exceptions (Rosol), but really that's very rare. The toughest matches come at the end.
Getting Murray rather than Ferrer in the SF was unlucky. Tsonga imo is easier than Berdych/ Del Potro.

This sums it up well.

Everyone coming through so far, looks like nobody ducking out of this series early.

I have a serious feeling Tomic could bully Federer come Saturday. He's genuinely a top 6 player on the plexicushion at this time. Has Tomic found a new (ahem) dietary produce?

Seriously JM? He struggled his way past a player ranked 120 (or thereabouts) taking four tightly contested sets to dig out a win in a little under three hours and looked spent at the end. If Fed doesn’t win against Tomic I would be pretty surprised.