Federer draw opportunity

First topic message reminder :

1st round is nothing to worry about, but from here on the book says its Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic, Tsonga, Murray and Djokovic.

If he were to go through that can anyone recall a tougher Slam?

Could be a big opportunity, but he'll need an effective short point strategy on this pudding of a court.

invisiblecoolers wrote:Tsonga now looks the solid of 3 [Del Po, Berdych and himself]

I think it really depends. Berdych I would say is more capable of beating the big guns. Remember Tsonga was playing Kavcic today who was 'fresh' from a five hour marathon match in the previous round.

Looks like the draw isn't going to get any easier for Federer. After Raonic, it's one of two players who seem to be in red-hot form, particularly Gasquet who won recently (Doha?). And Raonic himself is clearly no mug, I'm pleased that he's made it this far. I enjoy watching him serve, and he seems to be a decent chap with a good level of application.

Thought Tomic played really well today, very unlucky not to take that second set. Federer was awesome when he needed to be!

Craig, you must be pleased with how Murray's draw is looking! I hope he does get a reasonable workout against Simon in particular though, otherwise he could arrive at the SF undercooked and the fans could be denied a potential classic. Now all we need is for Djokovic to actually be tested by Berdych and Ferrer, and we'll be golden

Silver wrote:Thought Tomic played really well today, very unlucky not to take that second set.

Maybe, but he would also have been quite lucky had he won it. He was having trouble in most of his service games, while Fed was cruising through his.

In all the years following Murray there is absolutely no doubt that any of his previous slam draws have ever opened up so much for him as it has here. As you say Silver it would be nice if he was given a real test though he did get a decent workout today but does need more.

I agree summertime blues. In the second set Roger was cruising through his service games whereas Tomic faced a number of battles to hold serve so would have been against the tide so to speak if Tomic had won that set.

summerblues wrote:

Silver wrote:Thought Tomic played really well today, very unlucky not to take that second set.

Maybe, but he would also have been quite lucky had he won it. He was having trouble in most of his service games, while Fed was cruising through his.

The match was eerily reminiscent of Tsonga W quarter, 2011; Fed breaks serve straight off and takes the set, finds it hard to break but gets the 2nd on a tie break. I was relieved to see the early break in the 3rd.

Not winding-up here BB but can you see Tomic putting in a real challenge for a slam this year as in reaching a semi at a slam or better? I feel he is still perhaps a year to eighteen months away from that stage and works on parts of his game.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Not winding-up here BB but can you see Tomic putting in a real challenge for a slam this year as in reaching a semi at a slam or better? I feel he is still perhaps a year to eighteen months away from that stage and works on parts of his game.

A final is tough, it probably means beating two really good guys. He may just have missed his best chance on this slower hard court, too. No reason why a semi is beyond him, there really isn't much for him to be fearful of outside of the best 4 players.

Regarding Federers route from here, I think Raonic is maybe a tougher prospect than Tsonga. I really think this guy could be the next breakthrough player.

He has made strides no doubt and that is good to see as we need youngsters coming through. I always felt today was too soon for him to be beating Federer who is still evidently playing to a very good level.

Rarely have I seen Federer left scrambling as he was on several occasions today. I think a fair amount of credit must go to Tomic for that - and certainly for the way he saved so many BP's. Some impressive clutch serving, and all with a surprising sense of composure.

Fed did of course produce some typical magic of his own at crucial stages but despite the solid overall performance I'm not convinced his game is quite where he would like it to be ahead of Raonic and (possibly) Tsonga.

We shall see.....

I got the impression there was another gear there if Federer needed it. Tomic was at his best in the first two sets but still made no impression on Fed's serve (something for him to work on) and always sensed his head would go down when he lost the second set tie-break which it did (something else for him to work on). However, he does have a very good range of shots and generally great depth to his ground strokes and didn't seem overawed but I suppose that is because he felt he had nothing to lose.

CaledonianCraig wrote:In all the years following Murray there is absolutely no doubt that any of his previous slam draws have ever opened up so much for him as it has here. As you say Silver it would be nice if he was given a real test though he did get a decent workout today but does need more.

I agree summertime blues. In the second set Roger was cruising through his service games whereas Tomic faced a number of battles to hold serve so would have been against the tide so to speak if Tomic had won that set.

Actually Murray has failed every time the draw opened up barring USO [which I won't say completely opened up], he indeed excelled when the going got tough. Tougher the situation better the way Murray plays, so yes its gonna be tricky for him even if the draw opens up pretty badly.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I got the impression there was another gear there if Federer needed it. Tomic was at his best in the first two sets but still made no impression on Fed's serve (something for him to work on) and always sensed his head would go down when he lost the second set tie-break which it did (something else for him to work on). However, he does have a very good range of shots and generally great depth to his ground strokes and didn't seem overawed but I suppose that is because he felt he had nothing to lose.

Federer seemed aware that he had to take the initiative or Tomic would jump on any 'junk'. Fortunately that's Rogers way anyway, but every chance the young guy had he drilled it deep to the corners. He'd have troubled a less positive player.

CaledonianCraig wrote:In all the years following Murray there is absolutely no doubt that any of his previous slam draws have ever opened up so much for him as it has here. As you say Silver it would be nice if he was given a real test though he did get a decent workout today but does need more.

Actually, this seems very similar to last year's AO for Murray, where the fourth round ended up being Kukushkin, who retired 2 sets down having previously played a long 5 setter (also against Monfils), and the quarter final ended up being Nishikori, who taken out Tsonga but had also played several long matches. As this year, the draw opening up only went as far as to the semis, with the 2 top seeds left in the tournament.

summerblues wrote:

Silver wrote:Thought Tomic played really well today, very unlucky not to take that second set.

Maybe, but he would also have been quite lucky had he won it. He was having trouble in most of his service games, while Fed was cruising through his.

That is very true, good point - I should've phrased it better. Tomic did look as though he was in the driving seat during the tiebreak and played extremely well on the big points. Nearly every other player in the draw would've folded under the barrage that he sent over the net at times, but Fed scrambled very well. Overall Fed did deserve that set though, I agree.

BB, I thought that as well regarding the Tsonga Wimbledon match. A relief to see Fed cruise away in the third set!

It is funny how the matches can work out so differently from what one expects. When I saw Federer's draw I thought he had pretty tough opponents early on while Nole and Andy had cakewalks in comparison.

Now, one week later, I am starting to worry whether it would have been better had Federer been tested a little more in the first week, while Nole almost choked on his piece of cake. At least Andy's draw has worked out - so far at least - sort of the way it looked, i.e., quite easy.

Feeders preparation has been perfect.
Tough matches, but not too long that its tiring.
He's had some tough battles in sets, eg a tiebreak against both Rao and Tomic, but he's won them both.
Murray meanwhile will be undercooked, while Djokovic has already played a 5 hour marathon and isn't playing great tennis.
And Fed's biggest rival isn't even playing the tournament.

It's looking perfect for Roger.

It Must Be Love wrote:Feeders preparation has been perfect.
Tough matches, but not too long that its tiring.
He's had some tough battles in sets, eg a tiebreak against both Rao and Tomic, but he's won them both.
Murray meanwhile will be undercooked, while Djokovic has already played a 5 hour marathon and isn't playing great tennis.
And Fed's biggest rival isn't even playing the tournament.

It's looking perfect for Roger.

You are too funny

summerblues wrote:

It Must Be Love wrote:Feeders preparation has been perfect.
Tough matches, but not too long that its tiring.
He's had some tough battles in sets, eg a tiebreak against both Rao and Tomic, but he's won them both.
Murray meanwhile will be undercooked, while Djokovic has already played a 5 hour marathon and isn't playing great tennis.
And Fed's biggest rival isn't even playing the tournament.

It's looking perfect for Roger.

You are too funny

he's already preparing an asterix

Asterisk!
Not asterix - he's a Gaul
Not asteriks
Not any other variation
Asterisk!

No, I don't believe in asterisks.

When Federer wins this, he deserves the full credit. The ONLY reason this has been ideal preparation is because he made it so.
He could have lost already, or been taken to a tiring 5 setter. But he hasn't.

Thus Federer's win at this years Australian Open will be his own doing, and he deserves the credit. Simple.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Asterisk!
Not asterix - he's a Gaul
Not asteriks
Not any other variation
Asterisk!

Man so true. Since "ks" and "x" read kind of similar, all I could think of was the French comic book when I was reading (otherwise undoubtedly profound) contributions from socal today.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Asterisk!
Not asterix - he's a Gaul
Not asteriks
Not any other variation
Asterisk!

...can we prepare an Asterix anyway? I always liked that lil' fella. A moustache to be proud of!

I'm with IMBL on this one, I think the preparation's been nearly perfect. Decent testers in terms of sets, competitive but not overly extended, and a variety of opponents to play against to boot. All night matches thus far as well, which may help when acclimatising for later rounds, although I don't think it affects the top players too much. Of course, that could all out of the window in the next round or beyond, such are the fine margins at the top of the game!

Has Federer had bad luck with semi final opponents recently? Always having to face one of the big 4 recently (I include Nadal in the big 4). This tournament he looks set to have to go Murray (then Djokovic). At the US Open he lost in the quarters to Berdych, but would have had Murray (then Djokovic) again. At Wimbledon he had to actually beat Djokovic (then Murray) to win the title. At the previous slam, French Open 2012, he had to play Djokovic (then would have been Rafa in the final) at the AO 2011: Nadal in the semi (Djokovic would have followed in the final)!. Give the old guy a break, when is he going to get the other side of the draw, or get lucky with one of the others getting taken out.

Meanwhile Djokovic gets Ferrer this AO, Murray got Berdych last US, Djokovic got Ferrer last US, Rafa got Ferrer semi final in his last slam semi at the FO 2012, Murray got Tsonga at the last Wimbledon.

No such luck for Roggie! So, no complaints from anyone if Roger gets Ferrer in the Wimbledon semi, please. He deserves it?

Oops, with no offence to Daveed, good player that he is, but a little below the others!

Henman Bill wrote:Has Federer had bad luck with semi final opponents recently? Always having to face one of the big 4 recently (I include Nadal in the big 4). This tournament he looks set to have to go Murray (then Djokovic). At the US Open he lost in the quarters to Berdych, but would have had Murray (then Djokovic) again. At Wimbledon he had to actually beat Djokovic (then Murray) to win the title. At the previous slam, French Open 2012, he had to play Djokovic (then would have been Rafa in the final) at the AO 2011: Nadal in the semi (Djokovic would have followed in the final)!. Give the old guy a break, when is he going to get the other side of the draw, or get lucky with one of the others getting taken out.

Meanwhile Djokovic gets Ferrer this AO, Murray got Berdych last US, Djokovic got Ferrer last US, Rafa got Ferrer semi final in his last slam semi at the FO 2012, Murray got Tsonga at the last Wimbledon.

No such luck for Roggie! So, no complaints from anyone if Roger gets Ferrer in the Wimbledon semi, please. He deserves it?

Sorry I don't follow this logic HB. Murray would have been seeded to face one of the big three in every slam since he broke into the top four in the semis. It is not his fault or any of the other top three if they meet a lesser ranked player because one of the big three were eliminated earlier as was the case with Murray V Berdych at US Open and Murray V Tsonga at Wimbledon. That wasn't the draw that brought up those meetings it was one of the top seeds bombing out before the semis. I could say equally that no complaints if Murray gets Ferrer at Wimbledon couldn't I?

We've had two Slams without Nadal now, and in both Djokovic was the lucky one to get Ferrer. Murray is not really part of this discussion because he is not in the top 2 yet.

The chances of Djokovic getting Ferrer twice in a row were 25%, so no need for any conspiracy theories yet, but he has been lucky!

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:Has Federer had bad luck with semi final opponents recently? Always having to face one of the big 4 recently (I include Nadal in the big 4). This tournament he looks set to have to go Murray (then Djokovic). At the US Open he lost in the quarters to Berdych, but would have had Murray (then Djokovic) again. At Wimbledon he had to actually beat Djokovic (then Murray) to win the title. At the previous slam, French Open 2012, he had to play Djokovic (then would have been Rafa in the final) at the AO 2011: Nadal in the semi (Djokovic would have followed in the final)!. Give the old guy a break, when is he going to get the other side of the draw, or get lucky with one of the others getting taken out.

Meanwhile Djokovic gets Ferrer this AO, Murray got Berdych last US, Djokovic got Ferrer last US, Rafa got Ferrer semi final in his last slam semi at the FO 2012, Murray got Tsonga at the last Wimbledon.

No such luck for Roggie! So, no complaints from anyone if Roger gets Ferrer in the Wimbledon semi, please. He deserves it?

Sorry I don't follow this logic HB. Murray would have been seeded to face one of the big three in every slam since he broke into the top four in the semis. It is not his fault or any of the other top three if they meet a lesser ranked player because one of the big three were eliminated earlier as was the case with Murray V Berdych at US Open and Murray V Tsonga at Wimbledon. That wasn't the draw that brought up those meetings it was one of the top seeds bombing out before the semis. I could say equally that no complaints if Murray gets Ferrer at Wimbledon couldn't I?

Murray deserve Ferrer in the semi's once he becomes a top 2 seed till then he can have Ferrer in FO quarters .
Federer for the sake inspite of being the top 2 seed for the last 3 slams didn't get an easy draw atleast in the semi's, Djoko atleast enjoyed in USO.

Yes I can see that but aren't we somewhat retreading old ground here. I recall Djokovic fans unhappy at constant semi draws against Roger whilst Nadal always got Murray so I suppose these gripes will always go on.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Asterisk!
Not asterix - he's a Gaul
Not asteriks
Not any other variation
Asterisk!

Poor Goscinny and Uderzo.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Yes I can see that but aren't we somewhat retreading old ground here. I recall Djokovic fans unhappy at constant semi draws against Roger whilst Nadal always got Murray so I suppose these gripes will always go on.

So if Djoko gets Fed then Fed got Djoko, so how come its unhappy situation for just Djoko and not for Fed, Djoko fans anyways cried whatever draw he got.

It's all rigged of course.

Infamy, infamy.......They've got it in for me .......

It Must Be Love wrote:No, I don't believe in asterisks.

When Federer wins this, he deserves the full credit. The ONLY reason this has been ideal preparation is because he made it so.
He could have lost already, or been taken to a tiring 5 setter. But he hasn't.

Thus Federer's win at this years Australian Open will be his own doing, and he deserves the credit. Simple.

'When Federer wins this'...

You seem pretty confident IMBL! If he does that would be an amazing achievement as he would have beaten the upcoming generation in Tomic/Raonic and beaten the hottest 2 players on the circuit at the moment in Djoko and Murray. What a message to send the doubters and those who keep writing him off. But in reality its a very tall order. He has Tsonga tomorrow who can pull off the upset and I think Fed hasn't had a situation to wriggle out of yet unlike Djoko which all helps in the end. I think Murray may finally get that elusive win over Fed in a grand slam as he is the only one who Murray has failed to beat in a gs tournament. I personally hope it stays that way as that in itself is a great little piece of trivia so apologies to the Murray fans.

Oh yeh, another thing, Chardy beat Murray tomorrow?Never going to happen so I don't know why there is so much talk around it.

Tsonga has the best draw of everybody, the match tonight is on his racquet.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Tsonga has the best draw of everybody, the match tonight is on his racquet.

Can we say the similar thing to Murray, he had easy draw in comparison to his underdog opponent Chardy.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Asterisk!
Not asterix - he's a Gaul
Not asteriks
Not any other variation
Asterisk!

Hello



This is a congratulatory message from the emancipator to all the minions of planet earth and the surrounding solar ways of the milky bar galaxy. The above quoted text was not, I repeat not, written in response to an error, for indeed, the emancipator does not make seeming errors, except that he creates an opportunity for the minions to prove their worth. The emancipator is pleased that the minions are vigilant. The threat from BOO looms large. Stay vigilant!

Thank you.

Intergalactic secretary.

End of message.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Tsonga has the best draw of everybody, the match tonight is on his racquet.

Can we say the similar thing to Murray, he had easy draw in comparison to his underdog opponent Chardy.

Chardy will be lucky if the match lasts over 2 hours