Pro12 Home Semi-Finalists

Which teams are going to get the two home semi-final spots?

Given their run in, I think Leinster are best placed for one of the spots (especially given they still have to play Glasgow at home)? If so who gets the other spot?

Ulster have an easier run in, but seem to be struggling for form and injuries. Glasgow look to have the harder games remaining and can we assume Scarlets and Ospreys are just a little too far behind?

WARRIORS

I think Leinsters next two games are Glasgow and then Ulster. Both at home in the RDS. So we may even be able to come top.

I would bank on the top 4 being this:

Ulster
Glasgow
Leinster
Ospreys

Ulster at the RDS too - so just one place up for grabs then.....

Total, it looks nip&tuck all the way still to me:

Current standings:-

1 Glasgow Warriors 17 13 0 4 61
2 Ulster Rugby 17 13 1 3 61
3 Leinster Rugby 17 13 0 4 59
4 Scarlets 17 11 0 6 50
5 Ospreys 16 11 0 5 47
6 Munster Rugby 16 9 0 7 41

Remaining fixtures:-

Ulster: Edinburgh (A), Leinster (A), Dragons (H), Connacht (A), Blues (H)
Leinster: Glasgow (H), Ulster (H), Munster (A), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H)
Ospreys: Munster (A), Dragons (H), Blues (A), Treviso (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (A)
Scarlets: Zebre (A), Dragons (A), Glasgow (H), Blues (A), Treviso (H)
Glasgow: Leinster (A), Munster (H), Scarlets (A), Ospreys (H), Connacht (A)
Munster: Ospreys (H), Connacht (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A)

Looking at what's left for this weekend, this could easily be a must-win fixture for Munster to stay in the running.

After that, if I award 4 table points for home fixtures to the top clubs, and make some not unreasonable assumptions, I get to:

Glasgow - 2 home fixtures, plus 1 away game vs a Connacht with nothing to play for and looking forward to the holidays: +12pts = 73
Ulster - 2 home, plus 2 away to Embra and Connacht (ages since they lost to the Westies): +16pts = 77
Leinster - 3 home fixtures, plus 1 away to Zebre: +16 = 75
Scarlets - 2 home, plus 2 away (Zebre and either Blues or Dragons - never easy to tell with Welsh derbies): +16 = 66
Ospreys - 2 home, no easy-ish away trips: +8 = 55
Munster - 3 home, plus 2 easier away trips (Zebre & Dragons): +20 = 61

On that basis, before bonus points come in to play its a clear 4 at the top: Ulster, Leinster, Glasgow & Scarlets, with home fixtures in the semis for the two Irish provinces.

Of course, that takes no account of injuries (with Ulster devilled on that score), nor of Heino/Amlin distractions (Ulster and Leinster)!

Yep, still all to play for

Embra at least manned up last night so could do The Warriors a favour yet - to repay not letting us put on 4 home and away in December

Agreed, albeit I see Leinster finishing top (think they have a few bonus points in the off-ing still), followed by Ulster with Glasgow having to travel to Ravenhill and Scarlets to the RDS.

Leinster/Glasgow final it is then

Glasgow are able to ocncentrate on the Pro12 now - with Ulster and Leinster still having European involvement that could be a big bonus.

Tiger, you think Leinster are going to be concentrating most top resources and energies on Amlin? I'd be a very surprised man if it transpired that way. In my mind priority would be HEC (biggest club/regional competition in Europe and a world renowned showpiece)..then Pro12 (tougher than it appears 'domestic' competition with an International flavour)...then Amlin - if you're in it.

Leinster will be concentrating on Pro12 now that the pressure is off as regards HEC. They've chugged steadily up the table after a very bad first half to the season. They might still fall short, but all serious eyes (Schmidt and his players) will be on the attempt.

Next 2 games at home for Leinster v their only serious rivals for a home semi.

If we can win them both we are off to a good start. If we can deny our opponents anything we are looking good.

Hopefully Munster can start a run tonight that stops just after they beat Quins in the Stoop

Then we just need Embra to come back and even hold Ulster to scoring 3 tries or less

We would then go into the HC/Amlin break in top spot.

QED

Leinster is the best bet for a home semi at present.

The second will either be Ulster or Glasgow - Ulster has the advantage of a better run-in, Glasgow has the league's form team at present - the 2/3 week break may actually work against their current momentum.

Although by all accounts the Weege looked a little out of sorts in the first half last nite, GC? Perhaps a rest will not be so bad - recharge the batteries and refocus on the job in hand

I think it is still Ulster's to lose. Leinster could win all their remaining games and still end up behind them.

Same can be said of Glasgow but they have harder games.

Home semis could come down to the last game and bps in the last 5.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Although by all accounts the Weege looked a little out of sorts in the first half last nite, GC? Perhaps a rest will not be so bad - recharge the batteries and refocus on the job in hand

Maybe Asbo - Toonie was pretty scathing about the first half - sounds like we all dialled in our performances.

We cannot afford to start slow with any of the top 6 or we'll be taken to the cleaners.

Don't think the break will do Leinster any favours, we're really hitting the straps now, 19 points out of the last 20 available, we've already scored 4 more tries than we did last year when we completed dominated the league, and in 5 fewer games (Glasgow only have 1 less and have conceded ALOT less). But we've got great momentum now. Thankfully our next two games are at home and are must win, should keep the minds focused. Should...

George Carlin wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Although by all accounts the Weege looked a little out of sorts in the first half last nite, GC? Perhaps a rest will not be so bad - recharge the batteries and refocus on the job in hand

Maybe Asbo - Toonie was pretty scathing about the first half - sounds like we all dialled in our performances.

We cannot afford to start slow with any of the top 6 or we'll be taken to the cleaners.

GC, Asbo, we just looked really sloppy in the first half - poor handling, weak first up tackling, falling for the same first-receiver dummy run play about four times, and no kick-chase to speak of. We just didn't look interested. The scrum was the only real high-point, and Herr Clancy did his very best to nullify whatever advantage we had in that area.

The problem with Glasgow (and I think most teams suffer from this to an extent) is that we don't exactly get fired up against teams we should be beating comfortably. We've seen this in all our matches this year against Connacht, Zebre and Treviso - no real sense of urgency in anything we do, and it takes a solid kick in the grapes to motivate the players.

Thankfully, the counterpoint to that is that we do turn up when we need to get a result (last week's Ulster match being characteristic), and we're finally dialling in to the high-tempo strong-running style of play that can blow defences away, with Strauss and Matawalu being central. The upside in all this is that in all those matches, as well as the one last night, Glasgow had the essential class to do what was needed.