Do you think there will be any surprises in the Lions Test XXIII...?

by maestegmafia Thu Jun 13 2013, 23:18

Deliberations are nearing an end, its been 24 months of deliberations over that first test, now only just over 7 days away. Injuries, form, lack of form and call ups have thrust forward a number of which we , the journalists and the TV pundits are all coming to some similar very conclusions of who is a certainty in Brisbane for the first test.

But there is often the odd surprise, the call you didn't see being made in advance of the announcement and if anyone has any good suggestions, maybe that would soften the surprise a bit...?

by doctor_grey Thu Jun 13 2013, 23:31

Simon Shaw

by maestegmafia Thu Jun 13 2013, 23:47

doctor_grey wrote:Simon Shaw

Not at this stage...!

Thinking more of AW jones in the second row or a Corbs, Youngs cole front row...?

Would dropping Warburton be a surprise or would his inclusion be more so?

by doctor_grey Fri Jun 14 2013, 00:06

Maybe you are right about my Simon Shaw suggestion. Let's wait for the second test........

I wouldn't be surprised to see that all-English front row, but I am not convinced by Tom Youngs. I'd rather see either of our other Hookers start and have Youngs on the bench as an impact player, especially for his ball carrying. On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if he wasn't in the tests at all, barring injuries.

I think Warburton has been penciled in for months now (again pending injury). Would be a mistake not to play him in the first test. If the injuries slow him down, then we have a decision, but otherwise he is the captain.

I do have concern about Paul O'Connell. Not sure he will survive a test series or if he has the legs. AW Jones might not be a bad option.

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 00:18

I hope we dont suffer too many further injuries pushing the selection one way or another, but for example sake, North may not feature in the first test and if Zebo shows his best, it could well be him and Maitland on the Wings...!

by doctor_grey Fri Jun 14 2013, 00:22

I'd prefer to see North. And Zebo is great counter-point to North. Complete different style player and makes it difficult for Wallabies to defend. I do think Gatland will give preference to players who were part of his original selections.

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 00:23

doctor_grey wrote:I'd prefer to see North. And Zebo is great counter-point to North. Complete different style player and makes it difficult for Wallabies to defend.

I mentioned it because todays news suggests North is not as recovered as the physios would like.

by doctor_grey Fri Jun 14 2013, 01:01

I didn't know that. Not good news. But better he rests now and can play next weekend.

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:02

Definitely

by HammerofThunor Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:06

It depends what you think of as a surprise I suppose. The main surprising thing I can see would be not Halfpenny at 15. Not Sexton at 10 (if fit). That's about it.

by t1000advancedprototype Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:08

How is AWJ a surprise?

He started the first test in 2009.

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:13

Anything that is contrary to most peoples opinion would be a surprise to the majority and the larger percentage on here have said he doesn't stand a chance of getting in the test xv.

I thought he played well last week. Parlings line out work was very good. Gray could work better as a bench player. I thought Evans played some great rugby on Tuesday too.

by BigTrevsbigmac Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:16

Billy 12Ts is probably starting on Tuesday against the Brumbies if he puts his hand up & Tuilagi is still injured he could possibly squeak in the 23.

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:54

HammerofThunor wrote:It depends what you think of as a surprise I suppose. The main surprising thing I can see would be not Halfpenny at 15. Not Sexton at 10 (if fit). That's about it.

True....! There could be a backrow surprise or two.

I imagine a number would be surprised to see Lydiate at six with Tipuric and Croft not in the match day squad.

by t1000advancedprototype Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:59

I have a feeling that Gatland may go with what was so effective against England.

6. Warburton
7. Tipuric
8. Heaslip

20. Anyone's guess?

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 07:59

Warburton (right or wrong) not starting the 1st test would be a surprise I reckon, after all has a tour captain ever been dropped before?

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:02

t1000advancedprototype wrote:I have a feeling that Gatland may go with what was so effective against England.

6. Warburton
7. Tipuric
8. Heaslip

20. Anyone's guess?

Thought Faletau played 8 for us against England Whistle

by **LondonTiger** Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:03

Tipuric playing would be a major shock for me.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:14

LT,

I think you're right, despite his form warranting it, if he played it would been Warburton had to be dropped or moved to 6, if moved to 6 then that would mean Croft, SOB or even Lydiate missing out to accommodate him.

by **LondonTiger** Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:18

Aye, not suggesting he isn't good enough, justthat if he plays I would be a little shocked.

Mike Phillips not starting would be another major shock for me, but cannot see it barring a training injury.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:30

In all honesty I don't think there will be many (if any) shocks, a lot of the calls are tough but could be argued either way.

L/Head - the 2 front runners out injured so wide open (Mako in pole for me)

Hooker - no stand out (Hibbard in pole for me)

T/head - Jones and Cole both on good form ( Jones for me)

2nd row - POC - has found form and will play Gray and AWJ close call either would be good call (Gray for me)

No6 - SOB and Croft looking good, a tour to early for Lydiate (Croft for me)

No8 - Both on form and would depend who your 6 is as I have said Croft then (Faletau for me)

No7 - this is the big call Warbs is captain not on poor form just not as good as Tips but Sams skipper so (Warbs for me)

No9 - Phillips for me Youngs looking good and great off bench just think Gats will go with Spikey

No10 - Guess this is a clear choice Farrell over Sexton would be a shock so (Sexton for me)

Wings - North will start, Cuthbert knows how to finish but defence is poor huge chance for Zebo (North and Zebo for me)

Centres - BOD will start, Roberts has been good but not brilliant didn't think Manu offered much more but similar players in the bosh role so again either would go well (Roberts for me)

XV - Halfpenny will start, Hogg has looked good and sharp but Leighs in pole for me and Kearney not enough time for the 1st test (Halfpenny for me

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:45

There is sure to be a surprise at backrow.

Tipuric for example could face a situation where he is completly left out of the match day squad altogether.

If you believe the British media I think Croft has a real chance of starting with Warburton and Heaslip. If Tipuric doesnt make the team I dont think he will make the bench as it would make more sense to have O'Brien on the bench as he has played 6 & 7 for Ireland and 6,7 and 8 for Leinster.

AWJ Jones inclusion may not be a surprise depending how he partners up with POC v the 'Tahs. However, right now the form guys and a seemingly killer combo would be Gray and POC.

I think it would be treated by the media as a bit of a surprise if any of the following were left out:

POC, BOD, Sexton, Philips, 1/2p, Warburton or North.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 08:56

Guns,

Most would agree it would be a shock if they were dropped, I don't think Croft and Heaslip would work well, Croft and Faletau or SOB/Lydiate and Heaslip for me.

Tips off the bench would be great against tired legs but like you say with a 2nd rower on the bench as well then someone like SOB would be a better choice due to his ability to cover 6, 7 and 8

by maestegmafia Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:00

bedfordwelsh wrote:Warburton (right or wrong) not starting the 1st test would be a surprise I reckon, after all has a tour captain ever been dropped before?

Yes but over eighty years ago, when the tours went on for four months.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:04

maestegmafia wrote:
bedfordwelsh wrote:Warburton (right or wrong) not starting the 1st test would be a surprise I reckon, after all has a tour captain ever been dropped before?

Yes but over eighty years ago, when the tours went on for four months.

Proper tours then Maes Whistle

by RubyGuby Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:10

The negativity towards Warburton on here is disappointing to say the least - Heaslip and Tipuric have been ok but no one has really stood out 100% in the back row. Seems everything this guy does is -vley magnified to ridiculous proportions. I saw Vunipolo fall off numerous tackles in the one real game yet he is seen as the next coming. - Surprises for the first TEST - Probably knowing Gatland as he will introduce something that the Aussies haven't planned for - What that will be remains to be seen thumbsup

by fa0019 Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:16

After Warburton's uncertainity since the last 6N can you blame the posters?

Indecisive in the AIs, unable to take the captaincy in the 6N due to confidence issues, a 7 week injury with 1 game played and off the pace (Saturday pending).

The captain is the most important player on the pitch. He sets the tone, the attitude. You can't have a captain struggling for form ala Borthwick ala John Smit from 2010 onwards etc.

The first test is so important... the most important match. Only 1 lions tour have ever recovered from a first test defeat.

Saturday will show us whether or not he is ready....

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:26

Test captain always comes under extra scrutany. Same fate befell POC on the last tour. I really dont think it matters who was apointed captain this time around because they are so many leaders in the team. POC, BOD, Heaslip, Warburton, Sexton etc, have all captained their teams at one stage or another and are all very vocal and lead from the front.

In some ways to have Warburton as captain may take the pressue off some of the other leaders and allow them lead by example. Great teams always have multiple leaders. Would Martin Johnson been as good a leader if he didnt have characters such as Hill, Dayglo and Back proping him up. Would Smit have been as good without Matfield. Eales, Horan, Lynagh etc.

I have always backed Warburton but injury has not helped his cause and even when he did start he was only good rather than outstanding. Knowing the kind of character he is I expect if he does start he will raise his game ten fold and show us all what he has got.

Great players like BOD, POC and Heaslip always do it and constantly prove the doubters wrong. I have no doubt Warburton has a whole twin tank of energy and agression brewing and ready for the first test.

by **Ozzy3213** Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:33

RubyGuby wrote:The negativity towards Warburton on here is disappointing to say the least - Heaslip and Tipuric have been ok but no one has really stood out 100% in the back row. Seems everything this guy does is -vley magnified to ridiculous proportions. I saw Vunipolo fall off numerous tackles in the one real game yet he is seen as the next coming. - Surprises for the first TEST - Probably knowing Gatland as he will introduce something that the Aussies haven't planned for - What that will be remains to be seen

Ruby, I am in agreement.

Effectively the Lions have had 1 meaningful contest so far against the Reds. Warburton didn't pull up trees, but he did ok, in what was a tough game. SOB and Tipuric have looked good I will admit, however let's have a look at who this was against. A Baa Baa's side who were poor, a Westen Force 3rd XV and a team of amateurs. I think we need to stick some context in around these performances.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will decide who wears the 6, 7 and 8 jerseys in the tests, and you what, I trust Gatland to make the right choice, and actually, however he picks we will have a strong back row.

For what it's worth, which is actually very little, I would start Warburton at 7, as my view of him is that he is just the sort of character who will go out there having read that he's lucky to be in the side and pull out a huge performance to prove the doubters wrong.

by thomh Fri Jun 14 2013, 09:39

bedfordwelsh wrote:
I don't think Croft and Heaslip would work well, Croft and Faletau or SOB/Lydiate and Heaslip for me.

They did pretty well together in 2009 and Australia are arguably more suited to their style of play than the Boks.

by RubyGuby Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:01

fa0019 wrote:After Warburton's uncertainity since the last 6N can you blame the posters?

Indecisive in the AIs, unable to take the captaincy in the 6N due to confidence issues, a 7 week injury with 1 game played and off the pace (Saturday pending).

Maybe they should just focus on his Man of the Match performance against Scotland and his rampaging performance in Cardiff where he obliterated the opposition in a commanding manner (His last 2 international matches). Actually taking the decision to focus on his game and let Ryan take the reigns is a sign of maturity. Somehow however, everyone wants to see it as a negative. I just wish people would get off his back, thankfully he has the respect of the players and in particular the respect of BOD and POC. That's what really matters as opposed to the -ve whinging of players for no real justification on here

by RubyGuby Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:05

Warburton lacking confidence!!! - Yet another media and neurotic fan based myth
Warburton is off form - In his last 2 international matches he was MOM in one and he produced a majestic performance in the last 6 Nations game with rampaging runs and turn overs.

I guess some people see what they want to see thumbsup

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:21

RubyGuby wrote:Warburton lacking confidence!!! - Yet another media and neurotic fan based myth
Warburton is off form - In his last 2 international matches he was MOM in one and he produced a majestic performance in the last 6 Nations game with rampaging runs and turn overs.

I guess some people see what they want to see

In that case you sould probably say the same of yourself given that the reality is that Warburton has been injured a lot lately and in his last match he wasnt at his best. Not sure anyone is trying to claim he isnt a good player or captain he just hasnt had as much of an impact on this tour so far as most other test contenders. That is a fact and not ideal when you have been apointed captain.

by RubyGuby Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:23

GunsGerms wrote:
RubyGuby wrote:Warburton lacking confidence!!! - Yet another media and neurotic fan based myth
Warburton is off form - In his last 2 international matches he was MOM in one and he produced a majestic performance in the last 6 Nations game with rampaging runs and turn overs.

I guess some people see what they want to see

In that case you sould probably say the same of yourself given that the reality is that Warburton has been injured a lot lately and in his last match he wasnt at his best. Not sure anyone is trying to claim he isnt a good player or captain he just hasnt had as much of an impact on this tour so far as most other test contenders. That is a fact and not ideal when you have been apointed captain.

by red_stag Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:24

The potential surprises:

- All English Front Row

- No Sam Warburton

- No Jonny Sexton

They are the only real surprises I see. Things like Heaslip v Falatau or AWJ v Gray are not clear cut enough to be surprises.

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:31

RubyGuby wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:
RubyGuby wrote:Warburton lacking confidence!!! - Yet another media and neurotic fan based myth
Warburton is off form - In his last 2 international matches he was MOM in one and he produced a majestic performance in the last 6 Nations game with rampaging runs and turn overs.

I guess some people see what they want to see

In that case you sould probably say the same of yourself given that the reality is that Warburton has been injured a lot lately and in his last match he wasnt at his best. Not sure anyone is trying to claim he isnt a good player or captain he just hasnt had as much of an impact on this tour so far as most other test contenders. That is a fact and not ideal when you have been apointed captain.

Cant see pictures in work. I can see you are struggling with the quoting text boxes too though.

by thomh Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:33

Problem for me as well

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:35

thomh wrote:Problem for me as well

When quoting click on the bottom right hand resizing icon on the text box to resize it. Then select the whole quote cut it out completly. Type in your comment and then paste the quote back in above your comment.

by RubyGuby Fri Jun 14 2013, 10:38

I can see Gatland putting Tuilagi on the wing if North is not fit thumbsup

by SecretFly Fri Jun 14 2013, 12:29

Not sure it would be a massive surprise as such but I think Maitland will get in.

by kiakahaaotearoa Fri Jun 14 2013, 13:21

I'd be very surprised if there are no surprises in the Test Squad, as that would mean everyone would be in agreement over the selections and given that you have such a large group of players from which to select and already there have been contentious selections and omissions, I can quite comfortably predict that the probability of no surprises in this first Lions test squad is exactly the same as the probability of unanimous agreement that the refs in this series do an exemplary job.

by SecretFly Fri Jun 14 2013, 13:27

I'm more than surprised you feel that way, kia..............

by thomh Fri Jun 14 2013, 13:32

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I'd be very surprised if there are no surprises in the Test Squad, as that would mean everyone would be in agreement over the selections

There's a difference though between disagreeing about who should be picked and about who will be picked. I'd go for Youngs and Tuilagi over Phillips and Roberts, but I would be surprised if it actually happened.

by debaters1 Fri Jun 14 2013, 13:47

Yes, now I am Irish and a Munster fan so take what you want out of that when you read the below;

I do not see Heaslip as a dead cert starter. He is playing better than with Ireland in the 6N and this is a welcome up turn in form etc but Faletau is not so far behind him thus far on the tour and he has the advantage of being Welsh. This isn't a conspiracy theory or even a criticism, going for what you know especially on a short tour basis is understandable, and Gatland did not do a SCW on it by picking 'old favaourites' either, all these guys are at/close to the peak of the powers.

having said all that, I won't be shocked at all or disappointed if Heaslip is selected, should anyone think i am complaining about him being selected!

As for the bench spot, all things being equal, i think SOB will have that as he is a wrecking ball of a man and offers versatility across the back row too. But 20 will be an interesting decision for sure.

One thing that Gats might do (though I wouldn't necessarily advocate it) would be to selct 6 forwards on the bench, so Tirpuric would make it too and then it is a reserve scrummie and Farrell or 36 on the bench.

We shall see.

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 14 2013, 13:57

debaters1 wrote:Yes, now I am Irish and a Munster fan so take what you want out of that when you read the below;

I do not see Heaslip as a dead cert starter. He is playing better than with Ireland in the 6N and this is a welcome up turn in form etc but Faletau is not so far behind him thus far on the tour and he has the advantage of being Welsh. This isn't a conspiracy theory or even a criticism, going for what you know especially on a short tour basis is understandable, and Gatland did not do a SCW on it by picking 'old favaourites' either, all these guys are at/close to the peak of the powers.

having said all that, I won't be shocked at all or disappointed if Heaslip is selected, should anyone think i am complaining about him being selected!

As for the bench spot, all things being equal, i think SOB will have that as he is a wrecking ball of a man and offers versatility across the back row too. But 20 will be an interesting decision for sure.

One thing that Gats might do (though I wouldn't necessarily advocate it) would be to selct 6 forwards on the bench, so Tirpuric would make it too and then it is a reserve scrummie and Farrell or 36 on the bench.

We shall see.

Toby Faletau has had much more game time than any other back row player but hasnt really shone IMO. He has played 177 minutes.

By contrast Heaslip has had a lot less time to shine but has looked good in all appearances. Of all the Lions he is the third most experienced Lion after BOD and POC having played all three tests in the last tour.

Faletau is a big physical guy who can make yards, Heaslip by contrast is much more dynamic. Both have good hands and excellent workrate. I think that not only has Heaslip preformed better than Faletau he is also more experienced, offers an option at lineout and can also get stuck in with the donkey work making him a more attractive option.

Really cant see Faletau getting picked yet if he was Im sure he wouldnt let us down.

by **rodders** Fri Jun 14 2013, 14:06

True Guns but if Gatland goes with Croft and Warbs then Faletau's ball carrying might give him the nod.

If O'Brien gets the 6 shirt then Heaslip may be the better option.

Warbs is going to start so it really comes down to who compliments him best.

Interesting shout debaters on the extra forward on the bench. If so I'd fancy Hogg to get the nod alongside Youngs. I think Gats will pick 3 backs though due to the concerns about both 10s and O'Driscoll tends to hobble a bit in the latter stages these days.

by kiakahaaotearoa Fri Jun 14 2013, 14:16

thomh wrote:
kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I'd be very surprised if there are no surprises in the Test Squad, as that would mean everyone would be in agreement over the selections

There's a difference though between disagreeing about who should be picked and about who will be picked. I'd go for Youngs and Tuilagi over Phillips and Roberts, but I would be surprised if it actually happened.

Of course there is. But there's no way you're all going to agree about the first team. I'm surprised Warburton got picked on his form. You can bet that will be a comment, if selected, and if he isn't selected there will be the comment I'm surprised Gatland made him tour captain and didn't make the first test. Otherwise pete would be with all his threads on Lions positions saying this is who Gatland will pick and everyone would be saying what's the point of posting this. We all agree with you.

Someone will be surprised. It's a sure thing. Where have you all been these past years since 2009 if you can't see that? (Is it just me or is it much harder to click on an emoticon now?)

by kiakahaaotearoa Fri Jun 14 2013, 14:18

In fact, I'm willing to predict some of the surprises now.

I'm surprised SOB hasn't made the starting line up. I'm surprised to see an all Welsh back row.

by debaters1 Fri Jun 14 2013, 14:22

rodders wrote:True Guns but if Gatland goes with Croft and Warbs then Faletau's ball carrying might give him the nod.

If O'Brien gets the 6 shirt then Heaslip may be the better option.

Warbs is going to start so it really comes down to who compliments him best.

Interesting shout debaters on the extra forward on the bench. If so I'd fancy Hogg to get the nod alongside Youngs. I think Gats will pick 3 backs though due to the concerns about both 10s and O'Driscoll tends to hobble a bit in the latter stages these days.

Fair enough Guns and I take your point about Heaslip's experience for sure. as I said, I wouldn't be anything but happy for Heaslip to get selcted I just don't put him in the dead cert category that others do.

Rodders, I agree that Gats will probably go with 3 backs and it is what i would do if i were him, but with the likes of Halfpenny, Sexton and and Tuilagi in the starting side, there is versatility there so 6 forwards is an option if needed. But I'd be with you and have two back specialists in Youngs/Murray and Farrell (who can pplay 12 too of course) and then Hogg, Kearney, Twelvetrees etc fighting for the 23 shirt.

I am surprised (pleasantly I might add) that so many think that if Zebo puts in a good shift tomorrow that he could be in line for a Test slot. Awesome! Smile

However, whatever about Faletau, if North is not fit I just cannot see gats not picking Cuthbert and having one big phucker on a wing.

by brennomac Fri Jun 14 2013, 14:23

For all you nippers enquiring about when a Lions captain was dropped, afraid it's only old furts like me who remember this - was back in 1966 when Mike Campbell-Lamerton (yeah I know he ain't actually a household name from the past and was a huge surprise being picked for the panel never mind as captain) was dropped or dropped himself in the NZ tour. Didn't matter - Lions still got stuffed 4-0. After that C-L disappeared back into deserved obscurity/

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