Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

I thought Muzza pulled out of Canada last year?

Don't think so.  According to ATP site he has 90 points from it and I'm pretty sure he was there when the Olympics closing ceremony was on.

Just checked, he did withdraw from his 3rd round match giving Raonic a W/O

It will be good to see the top guys back in action.
Looking forward to seeing (not in preference order!):

1) whether Del Potro's return to dangerous form at Wimbledon is carried through the US swing and if he can be a real contender for semi final finishes at least.
2) How Murray plays as defending US champion and recently crowned Wimbledon champion - will his new stature as the guy holding the most slams make him the one with the overwhelming belief?  If so, it would be great to see how closely fought a semi with Nadal might be once again.
3). How Djokovic shakes off the bitter loss of the RG semi, and the possibly less bitter loss of the Wimbledon final.  He was the guy in the clutch situations, now he doesn't seem to have the greatest iron will of all.  Would be good to see him put it all behind him.
4). I don't think there is much doubt that if Nadal is fit and healthy he will draw tremendous confidence from that and be extremely difficult to stop.  He must be riding high in self belief after a tremendous start to the year and next to that unbelievable return to the tour after 7 months out, I don't believe the Wimbledon loss will unduly play on his mind.
5). Lastly, it would just be good to see TMF moving freely and unhampered by back niggles.  Maybe the fast courts of Cincy is where he will regain some confidence?  Interested to see him play with the larger racquet head, but as Fed himself says, it is difficult to know how much this might help him when his over all level is so low at the moment.

I'm interested to see whether Nadal will enter both or miss one and rest his knees for US Open. Wouldn't be surprised if he does miss one if it is hard courts that are toughest on his knees.

Would really like to see a Nadal Murray match again, it has been too long.

I'd like to see if Novak can finally win Cincy and claim "The Career Masters Slam" or whatever it's called.

That would be a genuine bit of history - no player has ever won the full set of Masters level tournaments.

And yes, a Murray-Nadal match is long overdue.

Cinci's the faster tournament of the two isn't it? I can see Nadal skipping that as he's probably 4th best when it comes to fast hard courts. I'm looking forward to this part of the year. After the grass court "season" it's my favourite, provided the weather is nice!! I know the draw for the Rogers Cup is today so I'll stick up the predo when it's made.

Oh, one more thought, where will wee Daveed be ranked? Please say 3rd!!

3rd

Thought Nadal was confirmed for Roger's Cup, but doubts (in Spanish press) over Cincy?

Am I behind the times?

He is playing according to Rogers Cup site.

carrieg4 wrote:3rd

 Thank you!  That's made my day, although it tells you what type of day I'm having when Daveed Ferrer being ranked 3rd at a tournament in Canada has made it.   A very slow one.

Great to be back talking about Tennis  

It's amazing how an Olympic and Slam win, can help you totally forget about Andy's worst summer Masters showing in years  

Should be easy for him to make the No.2 spot safe from say a QF defeat at the US Open

Think he and Novak will share all three - with Novak winning the US

The Special Juan wrote:

carrieg4 wrote:3rd

 Thank you!  That's made my day, although it tells you what type of day I'm having when Daveed Ferrer being ranked 3rd at a tournament in Canada has made it.    A very slow one.

I am assuming he will be since he is WR 3 at the moment and has been since 8th July. Surely they can't go back further than that in setting seedings???

banbrotam wrote:Great to be back talking about Tennis  

It's amazing how an Olympic and Slam win, can help you totally forget about Andy's worst summer Masters showing in years  

Should be easy for him to make the No.2 spot safe from say a QF defeat at the US Open

Think he and Novak will share all three - with Novak winning the US

I'm sure I will regret saying it but I am backing Murray to retain the US Open and Djokovic to retain AO. All depends on Feds form and Nadals ability to play 7 BO5 on hard given his knee issues though.

I just double checked the seedings, Ferrer at 3, Nadal at 4 and Federer at 5. No JWT due to injury but Cilic is there (supposedly).

The Special Juan wrote:I just double checked the seedings, Ferrer at 3, Nadal at 4 and Federer at 5.  No JWT due to injury but Cilic is there (supposedly).

Hmmm. All still a bit mysterious with Cilic......guess we will get the full story eventually.

carrieg4 wrote:I'm sure I will regret saying it but I am backing Murray to retain the US Open and Djokovic to retain AO.  All depends on Feds form and Nadals ability to play 7 BO5 on hard given his knee issues though.

I have a hunch that they might swap titles.

Although I'm keeping a very close eye on Del Potro's form too.

HM Murdoch wrote:

carrieg4 wrote:I'm sure I will regret saying it but I am backing Murray to retain the US Open and Djokovic to retain AO.  All depends on Feds form and Nadals ability to play 7 BO5 on hard given his knee issues though.

I have a hunch that they might swap titles.

Although I'm keeping a very close eye on Del Potro's form too.

Maybe, not sure if Del Po has enough for either of them if they are on form. Last match v Del PO, Murray appeared to be trying to out Del Po him which was very unwise.

Federer has pulled out of Montreal because of back problems... Posted on his Facebook and official site.. Cinci in doupt too according to insiders on his site.

HM Murdoch wrote:I'd like to see if Novak can finally win Cincy and claim "The Career Masters Slam" or whatever it's called.

That would be a genuine bit of history - no player has ever won the full set of Masters level tournaments.

And yes, a Murray-Nadal match is long overdue.

That would be quite an accomplishment, in fact only Federer and Djokovic have been to the final of every single masters event on tour. Of course Masters events do get added and drop on occasion like Hamburg but still in some ways this would be unique and singular accomplishment. Cincy in August is just murder in terms of humidity I really think more than surface that is his biggest problem with it.

TRuffin wrote:Federer has pulled out of Montreal because of back problems...  Posted on his Facebook and official site.. Cinci in doupt too according to insiders on his site.

Considering his back has been bothering him for years, it just seems to be getting worse and for longer periods of time. Maybe it's something only surgery, or a very long rest period, could really cure. At any point during his career, such a prolonged break would have been very damaging - more damaging than short breaks and the cost of a few matches when he played.
Now though, maybe not having such a break is becoming more damaging.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

TRuffin wrote:Federer has pulled out of Montreal because of back problems...  Posted on his Facebook and official site.. Cinci in doupt too according to insiders on his site.

Considering his back has been bothering him for years, it just seems to be getting worse and for longer periods of time. Maybe it's something only surgery, or a very long rest period, could really cure. At any point during his career, such a prolonged break would have been very damaging - more damaging than short breaks and the cost of a few matches when he played.
Now though, maybe not having such a break is becoming more damaging.

there is a theory mounting on his forum that makes sense that he plays Cinci and US Open to gain as many points as he can, then shuts it down and hopes it's enough for a top 8 finish so he can try to return for the WTF.. maybe that would be enough of a break to get it right.. if he still wasn't ready- he could just skip the WTF.. As it stands now he's locked in around 2700 points which would have finished 10th last year but not too far off of 8th... a decent run at cinci,US Open might be enough to secure 8.

The draw is underway. The quarters are Murray/DelPo, Berdych/Ferrer, Nadal/Wawrinka and Djokovic/Gasquet. Murray gets Dimitrov/Granollers in his first match back!!

Here's a fully full draw:

http://www.rogerscup.com/men/english/singlesDraw.php

Possible Nadal/Janowicz 3rd round. Dimitrov could be dangerous for Murray in the 2nd round if he can beat the seed plough.

None of the first round matches really jump out. Klizan/Bellucci might be a good one to watch along with Kohli/Paire.

carrieg4 wrote:Last match v Del PO, Murray appeared to be trying to out Del Po him which was very unwise.  

On the money as usual carrieg4  If ever Del Boy was going to beat Murray it was that undercooked version - who really wasn't mentally at the races, hence the decision to enter a forehand hitting contest

Cheers TSJ. So if we are to get a long-awaited match-up between Murray and Nadal it won't happen until the final as Nadal is in Djokovic's half. Murray seeded to meet Ferrer in the semis.

"Asked how Tommy Haas stays so fit at age 35, Dmitry Tursunov goes for a joke: "I see him carrying vials all the time." Awkward." - Amercan Journalist

banbrotam wrote:

carrieg4 wrote:Last match v Del PO, Murray appeared to be trying to out Del Po him which was very unwise.  

On the money as usual carrieg4  If ever Del Boy was going to beat Murray it was that undercooked version - who really wasn't mentally at the races, hence the decision  to enter a forehand hitting contest

Very true. However, that was a very slow high bouncing court which maybe negated the usual Murray tactic of keeping the ball low and moving Delpo around. Basically, the way the court was playing meant that most things Murray hit were going to end up in the Delpo hit zone.

Plus of course Delpo on form is a threat to anyone, as all the traditional top 4 have discovered in big matches on occasion.

Haas has got lucky with the qualifiers there.

Also, what do I spot as as a potential second round match up. Yes, it's Berdych v Anderson in what must be in the running as the most oft played match this season.

TRuffin wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

TRuffin wrote:Federer has pulled out of Montreal because of back problems...  Posted on his Facebook and official site.. Cinci in doupt too according to insiders on his site.

Considering his back has been bothering him for years, it just seems to be getting worse and for longer periods of time. Maybe it's something only surgery, or a very long rest period, could really cure. At any point during his career, such a prolonged break would have been very damaging - more damaging than short breaks and the cost of a few matches when he played.
Now though, maybe not having such a break is becoming more damaging.

there is a theory mounting on his forum that makes sense that he plays Cinci and US Open to gain as many points as he can, then shuts it down and hopes it's enough for a top 8 finish so he can try to return for the WTF..  maybe that would be enough of a break to get it right.. if he still wasn't ready- he could just skip the WTF.. As it stands now he's locked in around 2700 points which would have finished 10th last year but not too far off of 8th...   a decent run at cinci,US Open might be enough to secure 8.

He has looked progressively stiffer in his back for ages now. I don't think the serve fest with Delpo (19-17) in the final set of the Olympic semis did it any favours. I think we tend to overlook the impact marathons can have on players bodies in the long term. AO 2012 I believe was the catalyst for Nadal's lengthy absence from the tour and for the less than all out form of Djokovic mentally afterwards.

Hope he is back for Cincy  

As Ryan says, how lucky did Haas get with all those qualifiers - c'mon Tommy!  

Danny_1982 wrote:

banbrotam wrote:

carrieg4 wrote:Last match v Del PO, Murray appeared to be trying to out Del Po him which was very unwise.  

On the money as usual carrieg4  If ever Del Boy was going to beat Murray it was that undercooked version - who really wasn't mentally at the races, hence the decision  to enter a forehand hitting contest

Very true. However, that was a very slow high bouncing court which maybe negated the usual Murray tactic of keeping the ball low and moving Delpo around. Basically, the way the court was playing meant that most things Murray hit were going to end up in the Delpo hit zone.

Plus of course Delpo on form is a threat to anyone, as all the traditional top 4 have discovered in big matches on occasion.

I still think if there's an on-form Murray v an on-form Del Potro - Murray wins every time. I just think, when on form, Murray wears him down mentally

However, it might now be the case that a good Del Potro can beat an OK Murray

I think it also depends on the court surface. If it's DelPo v Murray on clay then DelPo every time for me; BO5 or BO3. On grass, I'd pick Murray to beat everyone these days except Nadal. On a slow hard court then I think Murray can grind DelPo down but on a fast hard court, not that any exist, it would be a close match. If DelPo can enter "thunderbolt" mode he can have Murray and pretty much everyone over a BO3 but you'd expect over a BO5 Murray would be much stronger. I would ever, ever write DelPo off before any match though.

Berdych vs Anderson is the Thinking mans Fedal.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Anderson actually leads the tour this year for hard court wins (though this is rather because Murray and Djokovic have only played 4 tournaments whilst Andesron has been to Bogota/Atlanta/Washington....

We could get a Nadal/Murray matched in the QFs of the doubles!! Murray's entered with Fleming, Nadal with Andujar. However, Nandujar are up against Ferrer/F. Lopez in round 1 and then have the 5th seeds in the 2nd round. I'd love to see Flurray beat Zimonjic/Benneteau in round 1 so I can see Murray give Paes' serve the treatment. I think I've seen Sara Errani serve quicker!!

It seems slightly ridiculous that the 27th and 34th ranked doubles players in the world weren't deemed highly ranked enough to get into the event, but you know, if you add the 347th guy to the pairing, what do you know, they'll let you in!

ryan86 wrote:It seems slightly ridiculous that the 27th and 34th ranked doubles players in the world weren't deemed highly ranked enough to get into the event, but you know, if you add the 347th guy to the pairing, what do you know, they'll let you in!

Well, I know they can use their singles ranking to enter doubles events - which certainly makes sense for the tournament directors as they get more sessions with the players that attract more paying spectators. I guess the seeding is done only on doubles rankings though - anyone know for sure?

Goerges is on the verge of a real implosion here which is a shame because she's much better to watch than Vinci.

It all seemed to swing on one dodgy challenge from Goerges in the 4th or 5th game of that final set.

ryan86 wrote:It all seemed to swing on one dodgy challenge from Goerges in the 4th or 5th game of that final set.

Definitely. It was 40-0 or something too so it wasn't the end of the world but if a player's low on confidence something like that can happen. I hope Julia can turn her form around because as streaky as she is at the best of times, I reckon there's a major in her career if she can play her best for 7 matches in a row.

Mladenovic probably needs sunglasses to cope with Stephens dress.

Jerzy, why are you getting beaten by Benneteau? Pull it together!!

Peliwo's a break up against Nieminen in the final set whilst Almagro's been dumped out by Stepanek. Every match today has gone to a 3rd set.

Baghdatis won the first set 6-1 v Fognini before going on to lose the last two sets 6-1 6-1 Peliwo's through after Nieminen retired. There's nothing else of real interest about at the moment until Granollers plays Dimitrov shortly.

Spare a thought for poor old Svetlana Kuznetsova though. In qualifying she won the first set against Lauren Davis 7-5 before losing the next two 6-4 6-4. However, she entered the main draw as a lucky loser and was drawn against.... Lauren Davis! Kuznetsova won the first set 6-3 before losing the next two 7-5 7-5.

Pospisil beats Isner in 3 very close sets. The big man was probably feeling it after getting to the final in Washington last week. Seppi has taken the first v Nishikori and Granollers is a set up v Dimitrov but the Bulgarian has 3 break points at 4-3*.

I can't see the Dmitrov v Granollers on the match list any longer so I'm assuming Granollers held and quickly broke?

So, I guess Murray will get a chance to avenge that draw in Rome.

Dimitrov makes a spectacular hash of it. He fails to convert any of those break points before Granollers breaks the next game and duly serves the match out. Granollers ploughs on into the next round.

The Special Juan wrote:Baghdatis won the first set 6-1 v Fognini before going on to lose the last two sets 6-1 6-1  Peliwo's through after Nieminen retired.  There's nothing else of real interest about at the moment until Granollers plays Dimitrov shortly.

Spare a thought for poor old Svetlana Kuznetsova though.  In qualifying she won the first set against Lauren Davis 7-5 before losing the next two 6-4 6-4.  However, she entered the main draw as a lucky loser and was drawn against....  Lauren Davis!  Kuznetsova won the first set 6-3 before losing the next two 7-5 7-5.

There seems to be have been a very large number of withdrawals in the womans tournament this week.